Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[ProgressiveModerate]

Team McLeod-Skinner claims there is at least 65K remaining Clackamas County.

https://twitter.com/JMShumway/status/1591154682671792128?s=20&t=kZRioaCM-6yh...

65k seems too high

[Figueira]

So, for Democrats to win, we need either AZ-1, AZ-6, or CA-45, in addition to all of CA-9, CA-13, CA-22, CA-27, CA-41, and WA-3.

Seems possible, but hard. The lesson for the future is not to give up on any district for stupid reasons.

[philly09]

Wasserman calls it for Lee in NV-03. A clean sweep.

[John Dule]

CA-22 is not Lean R. There’s an absurd amount of Kern left to count.

Kern is a red county overall.Where is the outstanding vote left?

The CA-22 portion of Kern is the Hispanic, blue part of the county; it voted for Biden by 20 points.

Sure, but is that where the outstanding vote is? CA-22 has a big chunk of northwest Kern. I know that's rural, but I don't know where to look for the remaining votes are. Although if NYT is correct and only 43% of the vote is in, then a substantial portion of the remaining ballots would have to come from Bakersfield.

CA-22 is an R+6 Cook PVI, for the record. This would be a pretty significant upset.

No way it has a cook PVI of R+6 on the new lines. Biden won it by 13%. Clinton by 15%

Oh, you're right! Wikipedia has the map updated but they didn't update the PVI from 2020. They're rating it as D+5; that is a very possible Dem pickup now.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Honestly am I the only one not feeling great about WA-03. It seems like the outstanding vote which even in Clark should break pretty heavily for kemp.

Coming up just short in both CO-03 and WA-03 would suck

https://twitter.com/gardnerphil/status/1591169133735202816?t=NnjagK2WUowg-WLeyi6...

Yes, I'm also fairly uncertain about WA-03, but I consider this more likely pick-up than CA-27, for example. Anyway without WA-03 Democratic majority seems impossible, and Joe Kent in Congress is awful, awful thing

Also we should get a more clearer picture about this race today

Past precedent says:

3K-ish left in Thurston. GOP nets a tiny bit

7K-ish left in Cowlitz. seemingly should break even

30-35K-ish left in Clark. Past precedent says they should go GOP and cause a heartbreak. But if Dems were to be on track to win, and keep outperforming there, then things break even again.

And almost northing remains from the rest of the district.

“Past precedent” from this race or prior races?

[Alben Barkley]

Wasserman calls it for Lee in NV-03. A clean sweep.

He will call it for CCM the moment she takes the lead too.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1591175735808782336?s=20&t=kZRioaC...

[Fancyarcher]

Hey everyone new user here. Been following Atlas for years now, but only signed up a few weeks ago, and haven't taken the time to post yet, mostly because I was scared that Tuesday was going to be a huge red wave.

Anyway this election turned out to be both better and more genuinely exciting then I expected to be, and that's great. Lets hope CCM can pull it off, it looks great.

Welcome pal, where you from? Any races in particular that you've been more interested in than others? Would be curious to hear.

Sorry for the late reply, but I'm from Vermont, so I'm safe. Most curious to see how WA3 goes though, given that it would be a bit of an upset.

[new_patomic]

If there's 65K ballots in Clarkamas then theoretically she only needs to win them like 55/45 or a bit above it, I think.

[Lief 🗽]

Wasserman calls it for Lee in NV-03. A clean sweep.

A hell of a lot of people owe Ralston formal, written apologies.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 map anyways going into 24 all our Sen inc in 303 states are safe D

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Washington DC, Puerto Rico, and Guam should be admitted as states immediately. It's a perfect compromise- a blue state, a swing state, and a red state, so no feelings have to get hurt to do the right thinf.

Guam is red? Seems like it's lean blue or purple.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

At this point, I'd be very content with a 218-217 GOP majority. Nothings getting done anyway at that close a main regardless of party control. Might as well give it to them so they can eat all the chaos and blame they want for 2 years.

As nice as it would be to have a nominal majority, I can't complain either if it ends up a narrow R majority, especially 218-217.

I think it is more likely than not that 218 R would eventually change into 218 D via special election. Who is going to be informed more and turn out more for special elections to decide house control - college educated D voters, or non-college R voters? I think the answer is not that hard to surmise.

[Alben Barkley]

It's a 303 map anyways going into 24 all our Sen inc in 303 states are safe D

Considering we are likely looking at the first time ever all incumbents won in the Senate, I wouldn't be surprised if the map is the same for the first time ever in 2024 and you've been right all along about the 303 map.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1591173748291686400

That kinda sucks for Republicans. Maybe Hobbs will make it and Kelly will outperform Fetterman.

Without COVID health concerns, I would tend to think many fewer people dropped off day-of this year vs. just going to the traditional polling station?  I recall there was less in the dropboxes than expected in Nevada.  Also, while it still has a pretty strong election day tradition, VA only had like 15K mail ballots arrive statewide on 11/8, which suggests negligible day-of dropbox use.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wasserman calls it for Lee in NV-03. A clean sweep.

A hell of a lot of people owe Ralston formal, written apologies.

He actually predicted Lee would lose.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1591175735808782336?s=20&t=kZRioaC...

A 53-45 Trump county.  Those must be mail ballots.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Why not a state of Pacifica? Guam + Northern Marianas + American Samoa + the various pacific islands? Keep most the latter as federal lands in the new state on account of most of them don't got much in the way of people on them. But I've always wanted American Samoa to get more respect beyond their current status, and the first two are still rather tiny in terms of population.

The majority of people in those territories would NOT want that. Also, that would also be an geographically extremely spread out state that wouldn't work logistically.

Furthermore, most Samoans (in American Samoa) prefer the status quo.

[pantsaregood]

It's a 303 map anyways going into 24 all our Sen inc in 303 states are safe D

You were right. It was a 303 map not a 242 map its called WAVE INSURANCE.

[Oryxslayer]

Honestly am I the only one not feeling great about WA-03. It seems like the outstanding vote which even in Clark should break pretty heavily for kemp.

Coming up just short in both CO-03 and WA-03 would suck

https://twitter.com/gardnerphil/status/1591169133735202816?t=NnjagK2WUowg-WLeyi6...

Yes, I'm also fairly uncertain about WA-03, but I consider this more likely pick-up than CA-27, for example. Anyway without WA-03 Democratic majority seems impossible, and Joe Kent in Congress is awful, awful thing

Also we should get a more clearer picture about this race today

Past precedent says:

3K-ish left in Thurston. GOP nets a tiny bit

7K-ish left in Cowlitz. seemingly should break even

30-35K-ish left in Clark. Past precedent says they should go GOP and cause a heartbreak. But if Dems were to be on track to win, and keep outperforming there, then things break even again.

And almost northing remains from the rest of the district.

“Past precedent” from this race or prior races?

Prior races. Just pulled up the district in DRA, and generally compare what we have in vote totals to what was there in past years, after doing a bit of math for turnout. There's a reason why I am not at all confident on partisan leans here, just the number of votes. More confident in CA. To that end:

Team McLeod-Skinner claims there is at least 65K remaining Clackamas County.

https://twitter.com/JMShumway/status/1591154682671792128?s=20&t=kZRioaCM-6yh...

65k seems too high

I can believe 65K left overall, and that Clackamas has the lions share. But not just in there, or else Oregon would be on track for unusually high turnout, even when compared to other high turnout states.

[John Dule]

It's a 303 map anyways going into 24 all our Sen inc in 303 states are safe D

Accept your accolades, King.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

It's a 303 map anyways going into 24 all our Sen inc in 303 states are safe D

Considering we are likely looking at the first time ever all incumbents won in the Senate, I wouldn't be surprised if the map is the same for the first time ever in 2024 and you've been right all along about the 303 map.

Even just one state flipping would still be a record (beating IN/NC from 2008 to 2012).

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

So, for Democrats to win, we need either AZ-1, AZ-6, or CA-45, in addition to all of CA-9, CA-13, CA-22, CA-27, CA-41, and WA-3.

Seems possible, but hard. The lesson for the future is not to give up on any district for stupid reasons.

That sounds like a nice lesson to learn, but in reality it is a platitude. You don't ever know with certainty, ahead of time, if you are triaging for a stupid reason, or if you are truly triaging a lost cause and putting a small number of additional resources into another district might make the difference in another district.

[pantsaregood]

Why not a state of Pacifica? Guam + Northern Marianas + American Samoa + the various pacific islands? Keep most the latter as federal lands in the new state on account of most of them don't got much in the way of people on them. But I've always wanted American Samoa to get more respect beyond their current status, and the first two are still rather tiny in terms of population.

The majority of people in those territories would NOT want that. Also, that would also be an geographically extremely spread out state that wouldn't work logistically.

Furthermore, most Samoans (in American Samoa) prefer the status quo.

The Northern Mariana Islands and Guam could actually be a mildly logical region, given that Guam is literally the "southern Mariana island." They're also generally more open to statehood than American Samoa.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

NV and AZ are taking way too long with these "drops", IMO.

It's kind of annoying.