Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Comrade Funk]

Just call it for Kelly at this point.

[Person Man]

Democrats had a good dump down on the southern border!

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590873299390959617?s=20&t=6jYTu_y...

Phrasing

[Person Man]

Just call it for Kelly at this point.

Call it for the Captain!

[ProgressiveModerate]

If those OR-05 numbers were from the Portland part, that isn't particularly surprising. If they're from anywhere else that's amazing for Kotek.

If they were from the Portland section, would they be that good for Ds?

Biden won the Multnomah section by a whopping 65%. McLeod-Skinner current leads by 60% with 805 in. This portion only contains about 50k people total though which isn't nothing but also isn't going to be pumping out votes for McLeod-Skinner like crazy

[Ferguson97]

Wow if Dems clean up in WA, OR, and AZ they might not even need Boebert's district

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590874369576034304

Was that part of the Pima drop in AZ-6?

[Mexican Wolf]

Democrats had a good dump down on the southern border!

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590873299390959617?s=20&t=6jYTu_y...

Phrasing

They know what they said haha.

[Oryxslayer]

Holy poop!

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1590872570538397696?s=20&t=6jYTu_ySWDN...

This had to be out of the Portland portion?

Yep, 7% of the Portland portion.  There is still another 20% of the Portland portion and 42% of the Clackamas portion yet to be counted.

Apparently this was Multnomah yes.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If those OR-05 numbers were from the Portland part, that isn't particularly surprising. If they're from anywhere else that's amazing for Kotek.

If they were from the Portland section, would they be that good for Ds?

Biden won the Multnomah section by a whopping 65%. McLeod-Skinner current leads by 60% with 805 in. This portion only contains about 50k people total though which isn't nothing but also isn't going to be pumping out votes for McLeod-Skinner like crazy

So it's kind of meh but not world-ending then.

[morgieb]

Looks like 2020 patterns led Republicans/doomers into a false sense of security!

[Hope For A New Era]

i can't wait to make a wordcloud of this thread once it's all over

[Devils30]

is AZ-6 creeping back into the picture?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I love how in OR-05, only 3 out of a grand total of 4 votes have been counted in the Jefferson Portion. Given how slow things are going, I wonder if someone counted 3 of them and gave up on the 4th.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If those OR-05 numbers were from the Portland part, that isn't particularly surprising. If they're from anywhere else that's amazing for Kotek.

If they were from the Portland section, would they be that good for Ds?

Biden won the Multnomah section by a whopping 65%. McLeod-Skinner current leads by 60% with 805 in. This portion only contains about 50k people total though which isn't nothing but also isn't going to be pumping out votes for McLeod-Skinner like crazy

Ehhhh, what’s left will be crazy lopsided in her favor and if the remaining Clackamas votes are what one would expect, then this is certainly no worse for Dems than a pure tossup.  If, if, if…

[DaleCooper]

CCM winning Carson City mail-in votes by 20 points, lol.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I love how in OR-05, only 3 out of a grand total of 4 votes have been counted in the Jefferson Portion. Given how slow things are going, I wonder if someone counted 3 of them and gave up on the 4th.

Lol.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If those OR-05 numbers were from the Portland part, that isn't particularly surprising. If they're from anywhere else that's amazing for Kotek.

If they were from the Portland section, would they be that good for Ds?

Biden won the Multnomah section by a whopping 65%. McLeod-Skinner current leads by 60% with 805 in. This portion only contains about 50k people total though which isn't nothing but also isn't going to be pumping out votes for McLeod-Skinner like crazy

So it's kind of meh but not world-ending then.

She is going to underperform Biden in the district no question, but it's a Biden + 8.8 seat, so she can afford an underperformance, but not a huge one. Right now she seems to be underperforming by about 9% so right on that knife's edge.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1590874407287029760?s=20&t=sE66V2sKgfdPZkg...

Arguably the biggest thing to see yet. And there will still probably be like 5% more from stragglers.

Key points:

almost 1 milion LA
almost 400k OC
110K Placer
240K Riverside
105K Kern.

[Splash]

As an aside, it's a little annoying how the NYTs is putting AK-SEN in the GOP senate column but they're not taking the same approach for all of those CA House races where the runoff is between two Democrats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If those OR-05 numbers were from the Portland part, that isn't particularly surprising. If they're from anywhere else that's amazing for Kotek.

If they were from the Portland section, would they be that good for Ds?

Biden won the Multnomah section by a whopping 65%. McLeod-Skinner current leads by 60% with 805 in. This portion only contains about 50k people total though which isn't nothing but also isn't going to be pumping out votes for McLeod-Skinner like crazy

So it's kind of meh but not world-ending then.

She is going to underperform Biden in the district no question, but it's a Biden + 8.8 seat, so she can afford an underperformance, but not a huge one. Right now she seems to be underperforming by about 9% so right on that knife's edge.

How is she doing in Deschutes? I could see a bigger than normal underperformance there.

[ProgressiveModerate]

is AZ-6 creeping back into the picture?

I still think Ciscomani is favored, but from what I know, Engel has a decent shot.

However, these networks may or may not have additional insight we don't have that would allow them to call it. With the data you and I can easily find online right now though, seems extremely premature. Same goes for CO-08 to a lesser extent.

[It’s so Joever]

If Lombardo wins and Hobbs does as well…the gubernatorial map will look like a blue snake, which is pretty cool.

[MillennialModerate]

is AZ-6 creeping back into the picture?

unlikely

*ducks*

[Pres Mike]

Anyone think that since 218-217 is really impossible to get anything passed in - that it’s better for Dems politically if the GOP wins the majority (at that number specifically I mean)

I've said this earlier in the thread: while I'd love to see the Democrats retain both houses, a D Senate and a bare R majority in the House is probably the best case for D prospects in 2024:

1. It allows D's to continue confirming Biden's appointments.

2. It removes any pressure on the D's to try and pass a very progressive agenda around Manchin & Sinema.

3. The R caucus will be an ungovernable clown show that regularly embarrasses itself, and can be blamed for failure to get anything done.

One advantage for the D's if they do hang on is they can keep the J6 committee going, but not having it is a minor loss.  At this point I think the committee has accomplished most of what it can do in terms of persuading the public; the DOJ will handle the criminal investigations.

Respectfully, I do not agree. I think Democrats can pass popular stuff with 218 seats and 51 senate seats. Just make a deal with Sinema

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1590874407287029760?s=20&t=sE66V2sKgfdPZkg...
Arguably the biggest thing to see yet. And there will still probably be like 5% more from stragglers.

Key points:

almost 1 milion LA
almost 400k OC
110K Placer
240K Riverside
105K Kern.

That's going to put a heck of a dent in the Republican HPV advantage.