NV: Insider Advantage: Laxalt (R) +2
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  NV: Insider Advantage: Laxalt (R) +2
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Author Topic: NV: Insider Advantage: Laxalt (R) +2  (Read 938 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 23, 2022, 09:30:35 AM »

New Poll: Nevada Senator by Insider Advantage on 2022-10-20

Summary: D: 46%, R: 48%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2022, 09:41:06 AM »

LAXALT isn't winning by 5
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2022, 10:06:35 AM »


He's only +2 in this poll.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2022, 10:36:44 AM »

I've heard InsiderAdvantage is R-leaning this cycle, at least relative to other pollsters. If so, not a terrible poll for Cortez Masto, though I still consider her an underdog.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2022, 01:26:57 PM »

This is a Republican firm IIRC
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kwabbit
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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2022, 01:36:18 PM »

IA had Laxalt +3 in its September poll. CCM has some minor momentum.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2022, 01:38:55 PM »

LAXALT was never ahead by 5 that was a Rassy poll the last Suffolk poll was CCM plus 2
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2022, 02:56:55 PM »
« Edited: October 23, 2022, 05:47:54 PM by MT Treasurer »

IA had Laxalt +3 in its September poll. CCM has some minor momentum.

Margin of error is a thing, just saying.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2022, 03:04:31 PM »
« Edited: October 23, 2022, 03:13:42 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

IA had Laxalt +3 in its September poll. CCM has some minor momentum.

Margin of error is a thing, you know that?

It's in the DATABASE the last SUFFOLK POLL HAD IT CCM +2, CCM is gonna win
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kwabbit
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« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2022, 03:17:30 PM »

IA had Laxalt +3 in its September poll. CCM has some minor momentum.

Margin of error is a thing, you know that?

Yep, but thereís been a few polls implying a contraction. The 538 average agrees. Laxalt is alone among the GOP candidates in competitive races to not have improved in the last month as well.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2022, 03:52:36 PM »

Telling that American Greatness (R) and Club for Growth (R) can only find Laxalt +2. It's gonna be close.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2022, 08:05:39 PM »

Tossup/Tilt R is still Tossup/Tilt R. Nothing to see here.
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soundchaser
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« Reply #12 on: October 23, 2022, 08:21:15 PM »

Tossup/Tilt R is still Tossup/Tilt R. Nothing to see here.
It's a Republican firm in Nevada. I would say this is actually the most "something to see here" poll we've gotten of the state in a while.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2022, 09:34:05 PM »

So usually we see some late momentum for Ds in Nevada because Rs always overpoll there through the summer.

I feel like what is happening here is that the national environment is trending slightly R, counterbalancing the state reverting to itís expected position in terms of partisanship (I.e. a point or two left of WI / PA / GA / AZ).

I never thought this was likely to be significantly more R than other similar states, and it would appear that that is playing out as expected. Low key think this goes R after all of WI / PA / AZ, and will be slightly left of GAís November result (which still means NV could go R while GA goes D if Rs pull out a narrow win in NV while Ds show up for the runoff in GA).
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: October 24, 2022, 01:26:10 AM »

So usually we see some late momentum for Ds in Nevada because Rs always overpoll there through the summer.

I feel like what is happening here is that the national environment is trending slightly R, counterbalancing the state reverting to itís expected position in terms of partisanship (I.e. a point or two left of WI / PA / GA / AZ).

I never thought this was likely to be significantly more R than other similar states, and it would appear that that is playing out as expected. Low key think this goes R after all of WI / PA / AZ, and will be slightly left of GAís November result (which still means NV could go R while GA goes D if Rs pull out a narrow win in NV while Ds show up for the runoff in GA).

It's called Early voting, Ds overwhelmingly win Early votes not momentum
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #15 on: October 24, 2022, 09:15:40 AM »

NV polls are herding, it seems?

I already moved this from Pure tossup to Tilt R. NV is definitely the most likely GOP senate flip, before GA and AZ.
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