AK-AL (Dittman Research): Peltola +4

[Senator Cris]

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1583909573022208001?s=20&t=RCkwdXp...

[Devils30]

Not a bad result if it’s over Begich. Palin is cooked

[Donerail]

Must Read Alaska is a right-wing blog run out of Florida, so maybe treat this one like a quasi-internal. Ivan Moore has one coming out on Monday.

[Ferguson97]

Closer than I'd like, but good result for Peltola.

[Punxsutawney Phil]

Closer than I'd like, but good result for Peltola.

Yeah. A win is a win.

[wbrocks67]

Must Read Alaska is a right-wing blog run out of Florida, so maybe treat this one like a quasi-internal. Ivan Moore has one coming out on Monday.

Moore is the gold standard at this point.

[Aurelius]

Sounds about right. One of the few Dems (maybe the only one) I'm rooting for. Fingers crossed she pulls through.

[Not Me, Us]

I would find it hilarious if the GOP sweeps both houses of Congress yet somehow manage to lose AK-AL.

[Calthrina950]

I would find it hilarious if the GOP sweeps both houses of Congress yet somehow manage to lose AK-AL.

I think it's very likely. Peltola is genuinely liked by people on both sides, it seems, and is tying herself extensively to Don Young.

[Aurelius]

I would find it hilarious if the GOP sweeps both houses of Congress yet somehow manage to lose AK-AL.

I think it's very likely. Peltola is genuinely liked by people on both sides, it seems, and is tying herself extensively to Don Young.

Both Peltola and Young are Real Alaskans^TM, which surely counts for something.

[Calthrina950]

I would find it hilarious if the GOP sweeps both houses of Congress yet somehow manage to lose AK-AL.

I think it's very likely. Peltola is genuinely liked by people on both sides, it seems, and is tying herself extensively to Don Young.

Both Peltola and Young are Real Alaskans^TM, which surely counts for something.

I guess so, although to my knowledge, Peltola is the first Alaskan Representative who was actually born in the state (Murkowski, of course, was also born in Alaska). But Young was an institution and widely respected in the state, so it's not surprising that Peltola is associating herself with his memory. But she is an example of someone who doesn't have anyone who particularly despises her. Sarah Palin was singing her praises again at some forum the other day, and apparently even expressed her wish that Peltola were a Republican.

[Donerail]

Both Peltola and Young are Real Alaskans^TM, which surely counts for something.

I guess so, although to my knowledge, Peltola is the first Alaskan Representative who was actually born in the state (Murkowski, of course, was also born in Alaska). But Young was an institution and widely respected in the state, so it's not surprising that Peltola is associating herself with his memory. But she is an example of someone who doesn't have anyone who particularly despises her. Sarah Palin was singing her praises again at some forum the other day, and apparently even expressed her wish that Peltola were a Republican.

Not particularly surprising, of course — the current Chief Justice is the first born in Alaska (albeit the Territory of), and one of only a handful (five now, I think) of justices in the court's history to be born in Alaska. Only two governors, Egan and Walker, and only two Senators, Mark Begich and Lisa Murkowski. Most people moved from somewhere.

[Aurelius]

I would find it hilarious if the GOP sweeps both houses of Congress yet somehow manage to lose AK-AL.

I think it's very likely. Peltola is genuinely liked by people on both sides, it seems, and is tying herself extensively to Don Young.

Both Peltola and Young are Real Alaskans^TM, which surely counts for something.

I guess so, although to my knowledge, Peltola is the first Alaskan Representative who was actually born in the state (Murkowski, of course, was also born in Alaska). But Young was an institution and widely respected in the state, so it's not surprising that Peltola is associating herself with his memory. But she is an example of someone who doesn't have anyone who particularly despises her. Sarah Palin was singing her praises again at some forum the other day, and apparently even expressed her wish that Peltola were a Republican.

When I say Real Alaskan, I refer to an ethos, not a literal birthplace.

[Calthrina950]

I would find it hilarious if the GOP sweeps both houses of Congress yet somehow manage to lose AK-AL.

I think it's very likely. Peltola is genuinely liked by people on both sides, it seems, and is tying herself extensively to Don Young.

Both Peltola and Young are Real Alaskans^TM, which surely counts for something.

I guess so, although to my knowledge, Peltola is the first Alaskan Representative who was actually born in the state (Murkowski, of course, was also born in Alaska). But Young was an institution and widely respected in the state, so it's not surprising that Peltola is associating herself with his memory. But she is an example of someone who doesn't have anyone who particularly despises her. Sarah Palin was singing her praises again at some forum the other day, and apparently even expressed her wish that Peltola were a Republican.

When I say Real Alaskan, I refer to an ethos, not a literal birthplace.

I know what you meant.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The more I read about Alaska politics the less I understand it.

[Michigan Moderate]

I would find it hilarious if the GOP sweeps both houses of Congress yet somehow manage to lose AK-AL.

The 2020 results should have made it clear that Alaska is zooming left. Few people gave credit to it though, even I ignored it after March 2021ish (although for a few months I was definitely talking about a left West)

[Vosem]

Must Read Alaska is a right-wing blog run out of Florida, so maybe treat this one like a quasi-internal. Ivan Moore has one coming out on Monday.

Dittman Research historically has a little bit of a Democratic house effect, though. (Ivan Moore historically has a huge and very consistent one.)

I would also say that any poll that has Begich in second rather than Palin is bad for Peltola, since Begich would've won in the special had he made second. This requires either a more favorable Democratic turnout pattern than the specials, or some people who voted Palin-Begich in the special to switch to Palin-Peltola, which feels unlikely.

[Spectator]

Must Read Alaska is a right-wing blog run out of Florida, so maybe treat this one like a quasi-internal. Ivan Moore has one coming out on Monday.

Dittman Research historically has a little bit of a Democratic house effect, though. (Ivan Moore historically has a huge and very consistent one.)

I would also say that any poll that has Begich in second rather than Palin is bad for Peltola, since Begich would've won in the special had he made second. This requires either a more favorable Democratic turnout pattern than the specials, or some people who voted Palin-Begich in the special to switch to Palin-Peltola, which feels unlikely.

I think the more likely explanation is Begich special voters who were confused by the last name or had loyalty to the family initially now voting for Peltola after she became a well known figure after the win.

[Donerail]

Must Read Alaska is a right-wing blog run out of Florida, so maybe treat this one like a quasi-internal. Ivan Moore has one coming out on Monday.

Dittman Research historically has a little bit of a Democratic house effect, though. (Ivan Moore historically has a huge and very consistent one.)

Curious what you are basing this assertion on. Dittman is a Republican pollster that rarely releases their polls to the public. Outside of this race, 538 doesn't have anything from them post-2010, and the only thing I could find searching independently was one R+6 poll from the 2014 Senate race (which, as we know, ended at R+2). Hardly a Democratic house effect.

[Orwell]

It's pretty ironic if the grandson of Alaska's last house Dem is the guy who is losing to Alaska's most recent house Dem.

[If my soul was made of stone]

She took "our rivers are full of fish" and managed to make it a winning campaign message. Queen. I would probably move to Alaska if my future didn't lie overseas.