NV: Insider Advantage: Laxalt (R) +2

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Nevada Senator by Insider Advantage on 2022-10-20

Summary: D: 46%, R: 48%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LAXALT isn't winning by 5

[Eraserhead]

LAXALT isn't winning by 5

He's only +2 in this poll.

[SnowLabrador]

I've heard InsiderAdvantage is R-leaning this cycle, at least relative to other pollsters. If so, not a terrible poll for Cortez Masto, though I still consider her an underdog.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is a Republican firm IIRC

[kwabbit]

IA had Laxalt +3 in its September poll. CCM has some minor momentum.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LAXALT was never ahead by 5 that was a Rassy poll the last Suffolk poll was CCM plus 2

[MT Treasurer]

IA had Laxalt +3 in its September poll. CCM has some minor momentum.

Margin of error is a thing, just saying.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IA had Laxalt +3 in its September poll. CCM has some minor momentum.

Margin of error is a thing, you know that?

It's in the DATABASE the last SUFFOLK POLL HAD IT CCM +2, CCM is gonna win

[kwabbit]

IA had Laxalt +3 in its September poll. CCM has some minor momentum.

Margin of error is a thing, you know that?

Yep, but there’s been a few polls implying a contraction. The 538 average agrees. Laxalt is alone among the GOP candidates in competitive races to not have improved in the last month as well.

[wbrocks67]

Telling that American Greatness (R) and Club for Growth (R) can only find Laxalt +2. It's gonna be close.

[Hope For A New Era]

Tossup/Tilt R is still Tossup/Tilt R. Nothing to see here.

[soundchaser]

Tossup/Tilt R is still Tossup/Tilt R. Nothing to see here.

It's a Republican firm in Nevada. I would say this is actually the most "something to see here" poll we've gotten of the state in a while.

[UncleSam]

So usually we see some late momentum for Ds in Nevada because Rs always overpoll there through the summer.

I feel like what is happening here is that the national environment is trending slightly R, counterbalancing the state reverting to it’s expected position in terms of partisanship (I.e. a point or two left of WI / PA / GA / AZ).

I never thought this was likely to be significantly more R than other similar states, and it would appear that that is playing out as expected. Low key think this goes R after all of WI / PA / AZ, and will be slightly left of GA’s November result (which still means NV could go R while GA goes D if Rs pull out a narrow win in NV while Ds show up for the runoff in GA).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So usually we see some late momentum for Ds in Nevada because Rs always overpoll there through the summer.

I feel like what is happening here is that the national environment is trending slightly R, counterbalancing the state reverting to it’s expected position in terms of partisanship (I.e. a point or two left of WI / PA / GA / AZ).

I never thought this was likely to be significantly more R than other similar states, and it would appear that that is playing out as expected. Low key think this goes R after all of WI / PA / AZ, and will be slightly left of GA’s November result (which still means NV could go R while GA goes D if Rs pull out a narrow win in NV while Ds show up for the runoff in GA).

It's called Early voting, Ds overwhelmingly win Early votes not momentum

[Sir Mohamed]

NV polls are herding, it seems?

I already moved this from Pure tossup to Tilt R. NV is definitely the most likely GOP senate flip, before GA and AZ.