NV: Insider Advantage: Laxalt (R) +2 (user search)
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  NV: Insider Advantage: Laxalt (R) +2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: NV: Insider Advantage: Laxalt (R) +2  (Read 983 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,704
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P

« on: October 23, 2022, 09:41:06 AM »

LAXALT isn't winning by 5
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,704
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P

« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2022, 01:38:55 PM »

LAXALT was never ahead by 5 that was a Rassy poll the last Suffolk poll was CCM plus 2
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,704
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P

« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2022, 03:04:31 PM »
« Edited: October 23, 2022, 03:13:42 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

IA had Laxalt +3 in its September poll. CCM has some minor momentum.

Margin of error is a thing, you know that?

It's in the DATABASE the last SUFFOLK POLL HAD IT CCM +2, CCM is gonna win
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,704
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P

« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2022, 01:26:10 AM »

So usually we see some late momentum for Ds in Nevada because Rs always overpoll there through the summer.

I feel like what is happening here is that the national environment is trending slightly R, counterbalancing the state reverting to itís expected position in terms of partisanship (I.e. a point or two left of WI / PA / GA / AZ).

I never thought this was likely to be significantly more R than other similar states, and it would appear that that is playing out as expected. Low key think this goes R after all of WI / PA / AZ, and will be slightly left of GAís November result (which still means NV could go R while GA goes D if Rs pull out a narrow win in NV while Ds show up for the runoff in GA).

It's called Early voting, Ds overwhelmingly win Early votes not momentum
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