NV: Insider Advantage: Laxalt (R) +2

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

LAXALT isn't winning by 5

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

LAXALT was never ahead by 5 that was a Rassy poll the last Suffolk poll was CCM plus 2

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

IA had Laxalt +3 in its September poll. CCM has some minor momentum.

Margin of error is a thing, you know that?

It's in the DATABASE the last SUFFOLK POLL HAD IT CCM +2, CCM is gonna win

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

So usually we see some late momentum for Ds in Nevada because Rs always overpoll there through the summer.

I feel like what is happening here is that the national environment is trending slightly R, counterbalancing the state reverting to it’s expected position in terms of partisanship (I.e. a point or two left of WI / PA / GA / AZ).

I never thought this was likely to be significantly more R than other similar states, and it would appear that that is playing out as expected. Low key think this goes R after all of WI / PA / AZ, and will be slightly left of GA’s November result (which still means NV could go R while GA goes D if Rs pull out a narrow win in NV while Ds show up for the runoff in GA).

It's called Early voting, Ds overwhelmingly win Early votes not momentum