Malaysia 2022 General Election Nov 19th

[Joseph Cao]

BN gets locked out of Parliament in Penang, losing both Pak Lah's seat and its successor (P41 and P42) to PN.

[Joseph Cao]

PKR officially retains P107 Sungai Buloh. Future prime minister Khairy Jamaluddin hardest hit.

[Novelty]

Anthony Loke going to parliament again for Seremban.

Penang CM also wins in his open seat.

Nibong Tebal didn't go the way of Kulim-Bandar Baharu

[Joseph Cao]

P173 much closer than I thought it would be, but BN has still gained it by a measly 124 votes.

P189 Semporna finally called for Shafie, P110 Klang called for Ganabatirau in a rout.

[Joseph Cao]

For all the excellent night that PPBM is having elsewhere they just lost one of their seats, P167 Kudat, to an independent. It looks like the Bahanda brothers are also going to Parliament together; Verdon just won here and Wetrom is in an excellent position next door in P168 Kota Marudu.

[Novelty]

I think Howard Lee must be happy he was placed in Ipoh East instead of Gerik.  He would have been slaughtered by PN in the northern Perak seat.

[Joseph Cao]

He would have been slaughtered regardless to be fair, the real surprise is that we're talking about PN doing the slaughtering in a place like Gerik.

[Joseph Cao]

P089 Bentong finally, finally called for Young Syefura with Wong Tack losing his deposit. An impossible hold that was saved by the PN surge cutting into Liow Tiong Lai's margins without a doubt.

This also locks BN out of holding a majority of Pahang's seats for the first time since independence. With the additional call in P088 Temerloh that honor now goes to PN.

[Logical]

PH loses P109 Kapar to PN in a shocker. Didn't see this one coming even in the most PN positive scenario.

PN 41.61%
PH 34.16%
BN 22.20%

[Logical]

Current Malaysiakini tally:

PH 80
PN 70
BN 32
GPS 22
GRS 6
WARISAN 3
INDEPENDENTS 3
PBM 1

[Joseph Cao]

For the record here's where we are now:

Perlis: PN sweep, fully reported. PN 3

Kedah: Near PN sweep, fully reported. PN 13, PH 1, 1 vacant

Kelantan: PN sweep, fully reported. PN 14

Terengganu: PN sweep, fully reported. PN 8

Penang: PH did fine except for Nurul Izzah, BN collapse, fully reported. PH 10, PN 3

Perak: Dogfight. Looks likely to come out to PH 11, PN 10, BN 3 when everything is counted

Pahang: PN narrow lead (!), fully reported. PN 7, BN 5, PH 2

Selangor: PN bodyslammed BN, fully reported. PH 16, PN 6

Kuala Lumpur: PH hit their mark, so did BN, fully reported. PH 10, BN 1

Putrajaya: Lol. PN 1

Labuan: Lmao. PN 1

Negeri Sembilan: Results appear to be coming from a parallel universe where PN got snapped, fully reported. BN 5, PH 3

Melaka: Epic BN collapse and PH overperformance, fully reported. PH 3, PN 3

Johor: Equally epic BN collapse and PH overperformance, fully reported. PH+MUDA 15, BN 9, PN 2

Sabah: Bad night for WARISAN, great night for UPKO, treading water for GRS, incredibly good night for KDM and other independents. Once completed, expected to be BN Sabah 7, PN Sabah 7, PH 5, WARISAN 3, and 3 independents

Sarawak: GPS underperformance, fully reported except for Baram which is a GPS walkover anyway. Will come out to GPS 23, PH 6, PN 1, PBM 1

Projected total: PH 82, PN 79, BN 30, GPS 23, WARISAN 3, IND 3, PBM 1, 1 vacancy.

[Joseph Cao]

Projected total: PH 82, PN 79, BN 30, GPS 23, WARISAN 3, IND 3, PBM 1, 1 vacancy.

The most obvious possibility is PN+BN+GPS, but if we went through a whole election and floods and EC dirty tricks and Azmin losing and who knows what else to end up with exactly where we were pre-COVID then these leaders are officially good for less than nothing.

No possibility for PH here unless the fabled and incredibly cursed PH+BN comes true… which totals exactly 112.

[Joseph Cao]

This kind of bloodbath just over the river would make me very nervous right now if I was Zahid.

Per Malaysiakini, Zahid holds on by 348 votes. Shamsul Iskandar calling for a recount.

[Logical]

BN is in a rut. What they need is some time in the opposition to wash off the stink of corruption and sell themself as the competent Malay party at the next election. But BN is a party of power and an ATM machine for many of its members. There's a good chance BN collapses completely if they are locked out out of power.

[Joseph Cao]

Pahang is hung obviously (sentences that wouldn't make sense 24 hours ago) but given the three seats left to report it looks likely that PN will pick them all up, which would leave the tally at PN 17, BN 16, PH 8, 1 uncalled. So the Sultan would approach PN first. The one uncalled seat whose election wasn't held today thanks to a candidate dying presumably saves Malaysia from having to deal with multiple state constitutional crises at once.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Have PN simply captured the old BN machine, or is it a truly ideological shift? Like, are PAS moderating on religious issues or what?

[Joseph Cao]

Have PN simply captured the old BN machine, or is it a truly ideological shift? Like, are PAS moderating on religious issues or what?

PAS hasn't moderated at all, they just (largely) successfully hid behind PPBM and the Muhyiddin government's image of "nice" "clean" ""stable"" government, and leveraged the public discontent with UMNO corruption and arrogance in calling an election at a time like this. In a better world PH would have successfully translated that into seats but too many PN members are sitting in seats that PH needs to win, and they were carried by the tide. Also no two words about it, but elements of PH (especially PKR) are very rusty and need to self-evaluate.

[jaichind]

Muhyiddin: PN to discuss with Sabah, Sarawak parties to form govt, no Harapan
Anwar: have the numbers, enough to form new govt (again, for the Nth time)

[Oryxslayer]

Projected total: PH 82, PN 79, BN 30, GPS 23, WARISAN 3, IND 3, PBM 1, 1 vacancy.

The most obvious possibility is PN+BN+GPS, but if we went through a whole election and floods and EC dirty tricks and Azmin losing and who knows what else to end up with exactly where we were pre-COVID then these leaders are officially good for less than nothing.

No possibility for PH here unless the fabled and incredibly cursed PH+BN comes true… which totals exactly 112.

BN is in a rut. What they need is some time in the opposition to wash off the stink of corruption and sell themself as the competent Malay party at the next election. But BN is a party of power and an ATM machine for many of its members. There's a good chance BN collapses completely if they are locked out out of power.

I think these two things go together. BN is in a very precarious position. Today was supposed to be their comeback, and instead its a slap in the face. They have some states governments but after today all are either vulnerable to nationalizing effects crashing down upon them or in need of the government support that birthed their governments. So BN perceives a NEED to be in government, even though this need likely kills it in a few years under the weight of inertia, scandal, and failure. So if PN decide they don't need the old guard, I actually wouldn't be too shocked if the cursed PH+BN coalition is attempted: the former wants govt, the latter perceives access as its sole life support - even if said agreement probably leads to voter abandonment.

[jaichind]

BN is in a rut. What they need is some time in the opposition to wash off the stink of corruption and sell themself as the competent Malay party at the next election. But BN is a party of power and an ATM machine for many of its members. There's a good chance BN collapses completely if they are locked out out of power.

PH is in a similar dilemma.  It is clear that the Malay vote will always vote in such a way as to avoid DAP being in government.  2018 was a miscalculation for Malay voters that wanted to teach UMNO a lesson but went too far.  The Malay anger at DAP being in the government eventually led to pressure on PPBM to leave PH and form a PN government.  This time around the Malay en masse shifted to PN to avoid a PH victory given how unpopular BN has become by calling this election.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So do people just hate DAP out of pure anti-chinese racism?

[Logical]

So do people just hate DAP out of pure anti-chinese racism?

*Malays but yes

[jaichind]

So do people just hate DAP out of pure anti-chinese racism?

I think it is totally understandable.  The Chinese population in Malaysia controls a very large part of the private economy.   If the Chinese also have access to political power this would place them in a very powerful position over the Malay majority.  The entire UMNO-MCA arrangement with BN was done exactly to ensure that the Chinese population has very little political power and the Malay majority agree not to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.  This arrangement is now breaking down with the decline of BN.

[Joseph Cao]

This kind of bloodbath just over the river would make me very nervous right now if I was Zahid.

Per Malaysiakini, Zahid holds on by 348 votes. Shamsul Iskandar calling for a recount.

This has been called off incidentally. Zahid narrowly avoids becoming Michael Portillo in addition to Theresa May.

[Хahar 🤔]

Looking through the results, it doesn't look like Gerakan won any seats. Are there any minority PN MPs at all outside of Borneo?