Malaysia 2022 General Election Nov 19th

[jaichind]

It seems MCA, who view DAP as their main enemy, is balking about a BN-PH government.  The good news for Anwar is that they only have 2 MPs.  And it is also going to be hard to explain to the MCA base how MCA will back a PN government with a large PAS component.

Like I said before, this entire government formation is mostly about a set of people who hate DAP and another set of people with some overlap who hate PAS.  The best way out is a grand coalition of everyone except DAP and PAS.

[jaichind]

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2022/11/21/tiong-says-gps-to-go-with-whoever-bn-picks/

"Tiong says Abang Jo to decide GPS stance"

PDP, one of the Christian parties within GPS is already making noises backtracking on the GPS backing of a PN government.  They must be getting pressure from their supporters about being in a government with such as strong PAS presence. 

[Joseph Cao]

The Tok Mat smoke signal about wanting BN to be in opposition is rather baffling frankly. As things stand there is no possibility where BN ends up in the opposition to a credible functioning government, their ability to pull the Borneo bloc along is too strong. I do not know what either side is bribing Abang Jo with but it had better work to decouple them from whatever BN does, and fast.

I still don't think DAP/PAS both being frozen out is likely and it doesn't seem as if anyone is seriously considering it. Nobody can turn the clock back 50 years that way.

[Joseph Cao]

On the other hand Rubin and Verdon are both backing PN, as expected. No word on the other Bahanda brother but presumably he joins them too.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I've heard that PAS used to receive some support from non-muslims under Nik Aziz, was this actually true outside of being a tactical vote in 2015 ?

[jaichind]

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2022/11/21/pas-link-splits-gps-over-teaming-up-with-pn/

"PAS link splits GPS over teaming up with PN"

More stories of some disgruntled GPS MPs and MLAs at the prospect of working with PAS.

It is interesting how both PH and PN are running into all sorts of problems trying to get to a majority.

Given that GPS is an alliance of parties the anti-defection law does allow some member parties to break ranks and refuse to back PN.

[xelas81]

Broke: anti PAS/DAP grand alliance
Woke: PAS/DAP lead grand alliance

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/malaymail/status/1591355767919349760?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

With PH and BN talks this prediction which was viewed as desperate now could become true.

[jaichind]

https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/645239

"Who should be PM? GPS looks to Agong for directions"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-22/malaysia-kingmaker-won-t-join-rivals-racing-to-form-government

"Key Malaysia Bloc Won’t Join Rivals to Form New Government"

It seems both GPS and BN have decided to stay neutral.  I guess both camps have too much disunity on this one.

So that leaves us with (I guess)

PH: PH (82) + WARISAN (3) + PBM (1) = 86
PN: PN (79) + KDM bloc (3) = 82

It seems the King is going to meet with Anwar and Muhyiddin to figure out next steps

[jaichind]

Peninsular Malaysia vote share

PH-MUDA      39.42%
   DAP             16.02%
   PHK             16.48%
   AMANAH        6.39%
   MUDA            0.54%

PN               34.82%      
   PAS             17.74%
   PPBM           14.99%
   GERAKAN       2.09%

BN               24.46%
   UMNO          17.27%
   MCA              5.17%
   MIC               1.25%
   Minor             0.77%

GTA                0.77%

PH-MUDA vote share looks right.  It is the PN vote share that was massive and came at the expense of BN vote share.  GTA is also lower than I would expect.

Final Merdeka Centre poll had

PH         35
PN         20
BN         15

So now we know, once we filter out for those that were not going to vote anyway, that the undecided were mostly PN-BN Malay voters which mostly but not totally broke for PN.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-22/malaysia-latest-anwar-draws-closer-to-foes-to-form-government

"Malaysia Latest: Anwar Says King Hasn’t Made Decision on Next PM"

Anwar said King has not made a decision on PM after his meeting with Muhyiddin and the King

[jaichind]

The King will meet all 30 BN MPs tomorrow to figure out who they support.  This will work in favor of PN.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Would be an extremely weird way for Anwar to become prime minister.

[jaichind]

https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/s/413351

"GRS dismisses allegation of war with Sabah BN"

With BN and PN potentially being on different sides in the federal government tensions are rising in the PN-PN government in Sabah

Yesterday, Sabah BN chairman Bung Moktar Radin was reported as saying that GRS’s announcement of support for Perikatan Nasional (PN) chairman Muhyiddin Yassin to be appointed as the new prime minister had breached an agreement between the two coalitions and amounted to a declaration of war. 

[jaichind]

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2022/11/22/ge15-bn-informs-king-none-of-its-mps-support-muhyiddin-as-10th-pm

"GE15: BN informs King none of its MPs support Muhyiddin as 10th PM"

I guess the King will ask each one of them 1-on-1 to see if it is true.  If none of them say they back Muhyiddin  then I guess the King will go with Anwar since on paper Anwar bloc is bigger than the Muhyiddin  bloc by a narrow margin and GPS already said they defer to the King, taking their 23 MPs off the table.

[jaichind]

If all 30 BN MPs tell the King they do not support Muhyiddin (and nor Anwar) then it is funny that it will be WARISAN, KDM bloc and PBM then becomes the decider on who becomes PM.  PH is 82 and PN is 79 (will be 80 after the election in P17 Padang Serai.  I have to assume that WARISAN and PBM will go PH which in theory is the ballgame regardless of what the KDM bloc does.

[jaichind]

Muhyiddin said he turned down king on unity government

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Break down of the race of the MP's between the political alliances. It does seem racial polarisation between alliances is going to become a permanent feature of Malasiayn politics

[jaichind]

https://www.nst.com.my/amp/news/politics/2022/11/853918/we-need-more-time-decide-say-bn-mps-ahead-audience-king

"We need more time to decide, say BN MPs ahead of audience with King"

More delays

[Joseph Cao]

In place of the BN frantic last-minute copying of each other's homework the king has been meeting GPS instead. Five GPS component party representatives left the palace around two hours ago. PBB representative Fadillah Yusof tells press that they still support PN.

Also supposedly Muhyiddin was undercut by ten BN MPs withdrawing their SDs and informing the palace but not him, hours before he went to see the Agong, which is why the Agong rejected his claim.

[Joseph Cao]

The Agong will be meeting with the other sultans (Conference of Rulers) tomorrow to deliberate on the best way to handle this mess. More delays!

CalamityBlue mentioned to me on Discord this afternoon that it's nice to see Malaysia's constitutional oddities being put to use for a change. The rotating pool of rulers getting called in to help solve this problem en masse might be the biggest oddity for foreign observers.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg:

The king has decreed that former ruling bloc Barisan Nasional must be part of a so-called unity government, BN chief Ahmad Zahid Hamidi told Malaysiakini after an audience with the monarch. Two other coalition leaders were told the same when they were granted the royal audience, Zahid added. BN linchpin UMNO is set to meet tonight, and this will be followed by a meeting of the BN supreme council, according to the report.

[jaichind]

From a game theory point of view it is better for BN for Anwar to become PM since PAS is the long term threat.  But they prefer not to be the entity to put Anwar over the top. 

[Joseph Cao]

Frankly the BN MPs should all just officially move into the KL World Trade Center at this point. It would save them time having to commute back and forth for all these meetings.

[jaichind]

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2022/11/23/grs-gps-have-agreed-to-work-as-a-bloc-says-source/

"GRS, GPS have agreed to work as a bloc, says source"

In theory this is a GRS defection from PN since GRS is really Sabah branch of PN.  I guess they are trying to get the most concessions from their Peninsular Malaysia PN main branch.