Malaysia 2022 General Election Nov 19th

[jaichind]

https://m.malaysiakini.com/news/645421

"BN and PN leaders to meet today"

UMNO prez Zahid not part of meeting. 

[jaichind]

Break down of the race of the MP's between the political alliances. It does seem racial polarisation between alliances is going to become a permanent feature of Malasiayn politics

As far as I am concerned it was the Chinese that started it.  They shifted their votes from MCA to the more radical DAP in 2008 which in turn provoked a counter-consolidation with Malays toward more radical Malay parties.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Break down of the race of the MP's between the political alliances. It does seem racial polarisation between alliances is going to become a permanent feature of Malasiayn politics

As far as I am concerned it was the Chinese that started it.  They shifted their votes from MCA to the more radical DAP in 2008 which in turn provoked a counter-consolidation with Malays toward more radical Malay parties.

Wow, the MCA lost more than half of their seats in 2008. While the MIC lost two-thirds, and UMNO lost one-fourths.

[jaichind]

As far as I am concerned it was the Chinese that started it.  They shifted their votes from MCA to the more radical DAP in 2008 which in turn provoked a counter-consolidation with Malays toward more radical Malay parties.

Wow, the MCA lost more than half of their seats in 2008. While the MIC lost two-thirds, and UMNO lost one-fourths.

The sequence of events is the following
a) Before and during the 2008 election PKR-PAS-DAP had an opposition alliance.  There was a surge in the Chinese vote for DAP in 2008 which pushed up the power of DAP within the opposition alliance much to the concern of PAS.
b) In 2013 the Chinese vote continued to shift toward DAP while UMNO was able to pivot this Chinese surge for DAP into accusing PAS of being DAP puppets and made a play for PAS Malay votes which worked and made up for the loss of  more Chinese votes for BN
c) After 2013 PAS decided to become more hardline on the Malay nationalism anti-DAP issue to prevent more losses of Malay votes of UMNO.  This created a split in PAS where the moderate faction of AMANAH broke off and continued its alliance with PKR-DAP while PAS broke off the opposition alliance to go after the Malay vote.
d) 2018 elections saw an unexpected shift of the conservative Malay vote from UMNO to the more radical PAS which was enough for BN to lose to PH due to PAS being the more radical party and the corruption issue.  Many Malay voters that voted against UMNO regretted their decision which led to DAP being in government.
e) This Malay pressure led PPBM to leave the PH alliance and form a grand alliance with BN and PAS to form a government that excludes DAP in 2020
f) In 2022 PN was the more radical of the Malay parties and was able to get a massive shift of Malay votes to completely outperform.

So everything starts with a).  The Chinese were thinking that bloc voting can produce a better outcome for them at the political level but over time merely created a counter-Malay consolidation with a strong chance of a radical Malay government. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

As far as I am concerned it was the Chinese that started it.  They shifted their votes from MCA to the more radical DAP in 2008 which in turn provoked a counter-consolidation with Malays toward more radical Malay parties.

Wow, the MCA lost more than half of their seats in 2008. While the MIC lost two-thirds, and UMNO lost one-fourths.

The sequence of events is the following
a) Before and during the 2008 election PKR-PAS-DAP had an opposition alliance.  There was a surge in the Chinese vote for DAP in 2008 which pushed up the power of DAP within the opposition alliance much to the concern of PAS.
b) In 2013 the Chinese vote continued to shift toward DAP while UMNO was able to pivot this Chinese surge for DAP into accusing PAS of being DAP puppets and made a play for PAS Malay votes which worked and made up for the loss of  more Chinese votes for BN
c) After 2013 PAS decided to become more hardline on the Malay nationalism anti-DAP issue to prevent more losses of Malay votes of UMNO.  This created a split in PAS where the moderate faction of AMANAH broke off and continued its alliance with PKR-DAP while PAS broke off the opposition alliance to go after the Malay vote.
d) 2018 elections saw an unexpected shift of the conservative Malay vote from UMNO to the more radical PAS which was enough for BN to lose to PH due to PAS being the more radical party and the corruption issue.  Many Malay voters that voted against UMNO regretted their decision which led to DAP being in government.
e) This Malay pressure led PPBM to leave the PH alliance and form a grand alliance with BN and PAS to form a government that excludes DAP in 2020
f) In 2022 PN was the more radical of the Malay parties and was able to get a massive shift of Malay votes to completely outperform.

So everything starts with a).  The Chinese were thinking that bloc voting can produce a better outcome for them at the political level but over time merely created a counter-Malay consolidation with a strong chance of a radical Malay government. 

This is making me wonder how this could be de-polarized. How do you undo all of this?

[jaichind]

This is making me wonder how this could be de-polarized. How do you undo all of this?

For me, it would be to try to go back to the social contract of the 1970s and 1980s.  Namely that Malaysia is for Malays and the Chinese can have social and economic autonomy but must accept that the political and public norms should be set and dictated by the Malay majority.  The UMNO-MCA-MIC alliance is central to that social contract.  What the Chinese have done in Malaysia I find very distasteful.  It is what we Chinese call "宣賓奪主" or "The guest's voice gets louder than the owner." 
Hopefully seeing a radical PAS getting into the government can get them to see the error of their ways and adjust accordingly.
 
It does seem that Pandora's box has been opened it is hard to go back to what was there before.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is making me wonder how this could be de-polarized. How do you undo all of this?

For me, it would be to try to go back to the social contract of the 1970s and 1980s.  Namely that Malaysia is for Malays and the Chinese can have social and economic autonomy but must accept that the political and public norms should be set and dictated by the Malay majority.  The UMNO-MCA-MIC alliance is central to that social contract.  What the Chinese have done in Malaysia I find very distasteful.  It is what we Chinese call "宣賓奪主" or "The guest's voice gets louder than the owner." 
Hopefully seeing a radical PAS getting into the government can get them to see the error of their ways and adjust accordingly.
 
It does seem that Pandora's box has been opened it is hard to go back to what was there before.

Hopefully the amount of things that are said that cannot be unsaid is not too high. There's a good reason that a lot of the effort and attention from policymakers in the region is geared towards racial and ethnic harmony. This is a diverse region with influence from various neighboring areas and if the apple cart gets upset too much that can kill the golden goose and leave everyone worse off.

[jaichind]

https://m.malaysiakini.com/news/645421

"BN and PN leaders to meet today"

UMNO prez Zahid not part of meeting.  

It seems BN shared with PN the terms PH offered BN to join a PH-BN alliance.  The clear signal is BN is asking PN to beat those terms.  Sounds so much like UK 2010.  BN just like LDEM totally underperform but gets the consolidation of being the kingmaker.

[jaichind]

What is leaked to the media is that the PH terms of BN are

a) Anwar as PM
b) BN has DPM
c) 5-year term
d) Any BN minister appointed has to be approved by BN leadership first
e) PM and DPM has a veto over the most critical ministries appointment (pretty much means no DAP in any of them)

[jaichind]

Malaysia media should put up a NYT-like election needle that swings back and forth between Anwar and Muhyiddin as PM with each new development.

[jaichind]

According to the media, It seems UMNO Prez Zahid (who is an old lieutenant of Anwar back in the late 1990s before going back to UMNO) sent a letter to the King backing Anwar as PM behind other BN leaders' backs.  He seems to admit to this late last night to other BN leaders which led to an uproar with MCA and MIC both of which now are now demanding Zahid be removed as UMNO leader.

There should be a movie about these spy vs spy games these few days in the future.

[Oryxslayer]

According to the media, It seems UMNO Prez Zahid (who is an old lieutenant of Anwar back in the late 1990s before going back to UMNO) sent a letter to the King backing Anwar as PM behind other BN leaders' backs.  He seems to admit to this late last night to other BN leaders which led to an uproar with MCA and MIC both of which now are now demanding Zahid be removed as UMNO leader.

There should be a movie about these spy vs spy games these few days in the future.

Another parallel to UK 2010 then, since there was a film made from the perspective of the Lib-Dems after the 2010 election (released before the 2015 one) - "Coalition."

[jaichind]

According to the media, It seems UMNO Prez Zahid (who is an old lieutenant of Anwar back in the late 1990s before going back to UMNO) sent a letter to the King backing Anwar as PM behind other BN leaders' backs.  He seems to admit to this late last night to other BN leaders which led to an uproar with MCA and MIC both of which now are now demanding Zahid be removed as UMNO leader.

There should be a movie about these spy vs spy games these few days in the future.

Another parallel to UK 2010 then, since there was a film made from the perspective of the Lib-Dems after the 2010 election (released before the 2015 one) - "Coalition."

That is exactly what I had in mind.  I am just imagining a PN meeting where Muhyiddin is saying to PAS and other PPBM leaders something like "I know for a fact that PH is offering BN voting reform WITHOUT a referendum"

[jaichind]

During the election, Muhyiddin claimed that there was a conspiracy between Anwar and UMNO Prez Zahid because of their past relationship.  Given Zahid's actions of going around the BN supreme council to send a letter to the King that all 30 BN MPs back Anwar there might be some merit to those accusations.

[jaichind]

https://www.nst.com.my/news/politics/2022/11/854272/ge15-asyraf-wajdi-wants-macc-probe-pns-offers-bn-mps

"GE15: Asyraf Wajdi wants MACC to probe PN's offers to BN MPs"

Umno Youth chief Datuk Dr Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki urged Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission's (MACC) to investigate the offers made by Perikatan Nasional (PN) to the 10 Barisan Nasional (BN) members of parliament.

He said the 10 MPs who signed the statutory declaration (SD) earlier might have forgotten  that they had agreed to give the mandate on the prime minister candidate and formation of government to BN chairman Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.

I like the "might have forgotten"  So the rumors that 10 BN MPs signing a document to support PN was true.  It seems they all withdrew their document once they were reminded of the anti-defection law.

It seems the BN-PH deal to pass the anti-defection law is saving them or else PN would have most likely have gotten a bunch of BN MPs to jump ship for plum spots and form the majority with PN.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Break down of the race of the MP's between the political alliances. It does seem racial polarisation between alliances is going to become a permanent feature of Malasiayn politics

As far as I am concerned it was the Chinese that started it.  They shifted their votes from MCA to the more radical DAP in 2008 which in turn provoked a counter-consolidation with Malays toward more radical Malay parties.

How dare Chinese and Indian Malaysians refuse to vote for a cartoonishly corrupt looser, and instead wish for a meritocratic state ?

It takes a special kind of perspective to view the DAP as radical.

So everything starts with a).  The Chinese were thinking that bloc voting can produce a better outcome for them at the political level but over time merely created a counter-Malay consolidation with a strong chance of a radical Malay government.  

Well it starts with UMNO having become increasingly malay nationist and hostile to the chinese and indian communites, and Najib being a kleptocrat are also important features.

[Joseph Cao]

The UMNO Supreme Council meeting has unanimously decided not to support a PN-led government, to make its members and MPs abide by the Agong’s desire for a unity government, and to keep Zahid as president. In combination this is pretty much tantamount to declaring support for a PH-led government. Also a way for Zahid to batten down the hatches ahead of party elections next month, although the main instigators of the mutiny within parliamentary BN are the other parties – Wee Ka Siong in even hotter water now.

A month is still an eternity in politics and Zahid could very well be gone before then, possibly even soon. If UMNO does badly at the Padang Serai by-election and he is still in the chair I suspect the calls for him to go will get even louder.

About that – as PKR has settled on its replacement candidate, state party secretary Mohamad Sofee Razak, nomination day is cleared to go ahead tomorrow with the other five candidates and polling on December 7. Everyone should be reminded that the highest-ranking party secretary just got blown out by the PPBM man in a neighboring seat and that doesn't seem likely to change.

[Joseph Cao]

If the course of events does not change from where everything seems to (at last) be heading toward a final resolution in the next 48 hours, I’m calling dibs on starting the International General Discussion board thread btw.

[jaichind]

If it is PH-BN then as mentioned a clear source of instability would be the UMNO Prez election that must be coming soon.  I wonder if Zahid will try to leverage the PH-BN government formation to scam his way into re-election.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Anwar is finally prime minister, with the weirdest political alliance in Malaysian history. Somebody needs to make a biopic of the man.

https://twitter.com/malaysiakini/status/1595651920580026369?t=7iiyQ_WVisHzsKEDgM...

[Logical]

Anwar's majority will be composed of PH + BN + GPS + GRS + PBM. Basically everyone except PN.

[Joseph Cao]

Anwar's majority will be composed of PH + BN + GPS + GRS + PBM. Basically everyone except PN.

Shades of the final days of the Muhyddin government when nobody else wanted to play ball with him.

[Joseph Cao]

If the course of events does not change from where everything seems to (at last) be heading toward a final resolution in the next 48 hours, I’m calling dibs on starting the International General Discussion board thread btw.

Now live: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=531751.0

[Novelty]

And the new thread for the upcoming State elections are at:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=531756.0

[jaichind]

In Peninsular Malaysia by my calculations, the ethnic breakdown of voters assumed the turnout rate of each group was equal in each district was

Malays   60.58%   
Chinese  27.66%   
Indians    8.85%   
Others    2.92%

It is not a bad assumption since if you then just calculate the ethnic breakdown by registered voters it comes out to a very similar ratio which implied turnout by the ethnic group was very similar.

When I have time I will do some regression analysis but assuming PH won around 85% of the Chinese vote (down a bit from 2018) and 70% of the Indian vote (also down a bit from 2018) that would imply that PH won around 15% of the Malay vote.  I am sure my regression will produce in the aggregate something very similar.

This is the main danger for the PH-BN government where 85% of the Malays voted against PH but BN is joining them in government.  UMNO will be under pressure to show that they are not puppets of DAP (aka the Chinese) or else they will need to leave the government or face extinction.