UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Pericles]

Party manifestos aren't taken as vague guides in my country, and if something is explicitly ruled out that (almost always) means it doesn't happen. We do have a different political culture though. I do wonder though whether what happened in 1979 and 1945 is really that useful for predicting what will happen in 2024. I really don't think it is easy to do big changes without a mandate.

[CumbrianLefty]

If anything, I would say it is a bit easier.

But we may quite soon find out either way

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Party manifestos aren't taken as vague guides in my country, and if something is explicitly ruled out that (almost always) means it doesn't happen. We do have a different political culture though. I do wonder though whether what happened in 1979 and 1945 is really that useful for predicting what will happen in 2024. I really don't think it is easy to do big changes without a mandate.

Yes, manifestos and election promises are unusually sacrosanct in both Australia and New Zealand. Indeed our voters can swallow incredibly unpopular policies as long as they were stuffed into the manifesto somewhere.
I’d say it comes from our combination of Westminster conventions and two party dominant proportional houses.

[CumbrianLefty]

Party manifestos aren't taken as vague guides in my country, and if something is explicitly ruled out that (almost always) means it doesn't happen. We do have a different political culture though. I do wonder though whether what happened in 1979 and 1945 is really that useful for predicting what will happen in 2024. I really don't think it is easy to do big changes without a mandate.

Yes, manifestos and election promises are unusually sacrosanct in both Australia and New Zealand. Indeed our voters can swallow incredibly unpopular policies as long as they were stuffed into the manifesto somewhere.

That is genuinely interesting and does explain a fair bit.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Mr_John_Oxley/status/1682815600622485506?s=20

[CumbrianLefty]

Despite the thread renaming, any Tory (or Labour) reshuffle remains conspicuous by its absence.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Trudy Harrison, who has held Copeland for the Conservatives since the 2017 by-election, has announced that she will not run for re-election. She has denied that this has anything to do with the poor electoral prospects of the Conservative Party. Copeland has been abolished in the boundary review, with the majority of it going into a new Whitehaven & Workington constituency, which would be an even bigger ask to hold than Copeland in a General Election.

[CumbrianLefty]

Not a surprise once the incoming boundary changes were confirmed, though there have been rumours locally about her intentions going back a few years.

She will always remain an iconic figure with some Tories for obvious reasons

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So they warned that the first Tory government to preside over an economic downturn would abolish their new social schemes? Was that scaremongering or did things like the NHS becoming immensely popular third rails take them by surprise?

This is actually very interesting. Conservative thinking during the 1945 campaign was heavily influenced by Hayek: The Road to Serfdom had caused a major sensation in intellectual circles on its publication, and much of the rhetoric and arguments Churchill and others used during the campaign can be traced back to it (including his infamous 'Gestapo' speech). At the time of the election, Labour would have had no reason to assume that the Conservatives would, begrudgingly (there was never a 'postwar consensus') accept that they could not roll back most of Labour's policies, and of course the Conservatives really only did so because of genuine shock at the scale of their defeat.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/JMPSimor/status/1683824439337668608?s=20

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Party manifestos aren't taken as vague guides in my country, and if something is explicitly ruled out that (almost always) means it doesn't happen. We do have a different political culture though. I do wonder though whether what happened in 1979 and 1945 is really that useful for predicting what will happen in 2024. I really don't think it is easy to do big changes without a mandate.

Yes, manifestos and election promises are unusually sacrosanct in both Australia and New Zealand. Indeed our voters can swallow incredibly unpopular policies as long as they were stuffed into the manifesto somewhere.

That is genuinely interesting and does explain a fair bit.

Yes, it does cover a fair bit of our oddities. And getting around promises isn’t as hard as Pericles makes it out to be, you just need to clearly promise your u-turn in next elections manifesto and win. Compare Howard’s GST to Gillard’s Carbon Tax, for instance.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/Mr_John_Oxley/status/1682815600622485506?s=20

Cute picture of his kids. It reminds me a little of when Ted Cruz was asked who his favorite My Little Pony pony was and had an immediate answer, not because he was a brony or whatever but because he watched it with his elementary-school-aged daughters.

[afleitch]

Updated for the new boundaries. If there are any errors you can see, let me know

Old parliamentary county, preserved county (Wales) and defunct region (Scotland) boundaries, where a seat crosses them are shown in '......'

I did this for as a good visual tool to familiarise yourself with geography in an otherwise cluttered map.

Opening the image in a new tab should give you a 'Paint' editable image.



EDIT: Amended.

[CumbrianLefty]

Thank you for this

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Welsh constituencies are positive proof of the need to Bring Back the Welsh Sunday, even if only for people serving on boundary commissions.

[Battista Minola 1616]

The Welsh constituencies are positive proof of the need to Bring Back the Welsh Sunday, even if only for people serving on boundary commissions.

They should be forced to live in Llangollen with no access to the outside world for a year.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Updated for the new boundaries. If there are any errors you can see, let me know

[very cool map]

Thanks for the map.
One question, is there any reason why Northern Ireland does not appear in it?

The Welsh constituencies are positive proof of the need to Bring Back the Welsh Sunday, even if only for people serving on boundary commissions.

They should be forced to live in Llangollen with no access to the outside world for a year imo.

Make them live and work along the Mersey Banks...on foot!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Welsh constituencies are positive proof of the need to Bring Back the Welsh Sunday, even if only for people serving on boundary commissions.

They should be forced to live in Llangollen with no access to the outside world for a year.

Portmeirion.

[afleitch]

Thank you for this

On 'the other place' they thankfully noted a few errors I need to correct. So I'll revise

[afleitch]

The Welsh constituencies are positive proof of the need to Bring Back the Welsh Sunday, even if only for people serving on boundary commissions.

They should be forced to live in Llangollen with no access to the outside world for a year.

Portmeirion.

Living in Wales is punishment enough surely?

😶

[Oryxslayer]

The Welsh constituencies are positive proof of the need to Bring Back the Welsh Sunday, even if only for people serving on boundary commissions.

As someone who attempted to draw a better Welsh map...losing 8 seats doesn't exactly make the remapping easy and in many cases sensible.  It's not the worst place on the map though, Cumbria loses two seats from a very tight geographic area, forcing some questionable decisions.


Overall though the English portion of the map seems more sensible,  at least under the present patterns of development, than last review.  Especially IMO much of southeast England and Hertfordshire.

[afleitch]

The Welsh constituencies are positive proof of the need to Bring Back the Welsh Sunday, even if only for people serving on boundary commissions.

The weird 'muh quota' compromise, given the failure of two abandoned reviews, had a net effect of thankfully, reducing cross county seats but still needlessly required it. When you could just change the national quota to reduce seats and allow for variation within 'counties' or groupings as per and have more frequent reviews. Or even part reviews (which hasn't happened since the Milton Keynes split)

Scotland's 2005 seats were visually jarring after decades of 71/72 but quite logical. Wales' reduction (which was overdue) would have been similar under older rules. You could have kept the preserved counties with only a minor Powys 'jump'.

---

FWIW, the current boundaries have served four elections (five in Scotland). More than any other since the First Review (five).

Scotland's seats are currently based on enumeration data from June 2001, making them 22 years 'old'. And they still have time to run before abolition.

The First Review had a March 1954 enumeration date, making them just shy of 20 years old before abolition.

So they are post war record breakers.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, the rules plus the reduction in seats was always going to result in a messy and unhappy map, but there are some details that really do go beyond that and speak of a sort of romantic ignorance. The cross-Berwyns constituency is genuinely mad and easily avoidable.

[afleitch]

Yes, the rules plus the reduction in seats was always going to result in a messy and unhappy map, but there are some details that really do go beyond that and speak of a sort of romantic ignorance. The cross-Berwyns constituency is genuinely mad and easily avoidable.

Wales is unique in that it's effectively a 'massif' with lots population hugging the coast and the Valleys only being populated because of what was beneath the feet.

The watersheds in Powys effectively flow into England as as you can't cross that border you're trying to find ways to bleed out of there.

There's a strong case to make it protected area at Review (and the Highlands for a similar reason) as it's effectively an 'island.'

I agree that north east Wales is an unnecessary mess even outside of this.

[Tintrlvr]

Yes, the rules plus the reduction in seats was always going to result in a messy and unhappy map, but there are some details that really do go beyond that and speak of a sort of romantic ignorance. The cross-Berwyns constituency is genuinely mad and easily avoidable.

Wales is unique in that it's effectively a 'massif' with lots population hugging the coast and the Valleys only being populated because of what was beneath the feet.

The watersheds in Powys effectively flow into England as as you can't cross that border you're trying to find ways to bleed out of there.

There's a strong case to make it protected area at Review (and the Highlands for a similar reason) as it's effectively an 'island.'

I agree that north east Wales is an unnecessary mess even outside of this.

The real answer at this point seems to be reducing Powys to one seat entirely within Powys with bits on the edges carved out to other areas. That would be unpopular for obvious reasons, however.