Argentina 2023 election

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

A bus driver in Buenos Aires was murdered days before retirement, provoking a big protest in La Matanza from the bus drivers. Security Minister Berni went to... I'm not sure actually, I guess he thought he could win them over with sheer charisma? Instead the angry mob surged forward and delivered what some might call "a mighty asswhooping":

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1643073400724930562

https://twitter.com/mauroszeta/status/1642920878122971142

https://twitter.com/mauroszeta/status/1642913180845211650

Yet another example of the total collapse of support in places that were once Peronist strongholds. The Alberto Fernández graffiti in the background manages to make the fall of Berni even more symbolic

The next day Berni demonstrated his political acumen by claiming that the bus driver was murdered as some kind of plot to make Governor Kicillof look bad.

EDIT: and just to balance things out with bad news for the opposition (that's so fresh that it literally broke as I was writing this post), in the key opposition stronghold of Mendoza the PRO leader Omar De Marchi just announced that he's going to break the coalition and run independently of Juntos:

https://twitter.com/omardemarchi/status/1643316582595043330

There have been rumours going around for months that De Marchi was going to split off to make a new coalition with Milei's local affiliates and it seems to be the case. A big blow for Larreta, who De Marchi answered to up to this point, and Juntos as a whole, as their provincial agreements blow up left and right despite (or perhaps because of) the weakness of the government.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Berni is also despised by many peronistas, especially on the more progressive side of things, there's also the issue that he's only on the government because like many other Todos members he has some weird adulation for Cristina and to no one else despite not being close to her on pretty much any issue

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Berni is also despised by many peronistas, especially on the more progressive side of things, there's also the issue that he's only on the government because like many other Todos members he has some weird adulation for Cristina and to no one else despite not being close to her on pretty much any issue

Berni is definitely an outlier. Still, the government was clearly very spooked: everyone cancelled events in the suburbs and the next day the drivers were arrested with overwhelming force

https://twitter.com/todonoticias/status/1643957425093976064

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

The JxC primary for mayor of Buenos Aires got a lot messier in the last few days

Rodriguez Larreta had said, less than 2 weeks ago, that there would be only one candidate in for the Pro ballot for mayor, within the JxC primaries (which would also include Larreta's former rival turned ally Martín Lusteau on an UCR ballot within the government coalition ballot). This unified candidacy was going to be Jorge Macri, the former president's cousin, former mayor of the suburban county of Vicente Lopez.
However there are a few arguments within Pro, OTOH the more easily explainable, Soledad Acuña and Fernán Quirós, the city's education and health ministers, respectively, also want to run for mayor
The other issue (whether the elections for the city's authorities [using and the national elections should be held simultaneously, using two different ballot methods, or as part of one single election*) an excuse for some conflict between the Macris on one side, backed by Bulrich and María Eugenia Vidal, and Larreta and Lousteau, with the support of the UCR and Lilita Carrió on the other

*Larreta wants to use a single instant printed electronic ballot for the city elections (a position that Mauricio Macri himself strongly supported for the 2015 and 2019 elections), while  Jorge Macri supports using the traditional way - each list having its own paper ballot

On the side of the opposition, Nito Artaza, actor, media businessman and former Senator for Corrientes, also announced that he's running for mayor of Buenos Aires, most likely on the Todos primary

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

The JxC primary for mayor of Buenos Aires got a lot messier in the last few days

Rodriguez Larreta had said, less than 2 weeks ago, that there would be only one candidate in for the Pro ballot for mayor, within the JxC primaries (which would also include Larreta's former rival turned ally Martín Lusteau on an UCR ballot within the government coalition ballot). This unified candidacy was going to be Jorge Macri, the former president's cousin, former mayor of the suburban county of Vicente Lopez.
However there are a few arguments within Pro, OTOH the more easily explainable, Soledad Acuña and Fernán Quirós, the city's education and health ministers, respectively, also want to run for mayor
The other issue (whether the elections for the city's authorities [using and the national elections should be held simultaneously, using two different ballot methods, or as part of one single election*) an excuse for some conflict between the Macris on one side, backed by Bulrich and María Eugenia Vidal, and Larreta and Lousteau, with the support of the UCR and Lilita Carrió on the other

*Larreta wants to use a single instant printed electronic ballot for the city elections (a position that Mauricio Macri himself strongly supported for the 2015 and 2019 elections), while  Jorge Macri supports using the traditional way - each list having its own paper ballot

On the side of the opposition, Nito Artaza, actor, media businessman and former Senator for Corrientes, also announced that he's running for mayor of Buenos Aires, most likely on the Todos primary

Dividing the elections directly benefits Lousteau in two ways:

1. The single list would have left Lousteau on the relatively weak UCR list, dragging him down in the contest against Jorge Macri. Separated elections would also depress turnout, meaning his stronger organizational backing would be favoured over Macri's larger (?) but less motivated base.

2. It prevents a strong performance from Milei pulling Ramiro Marra into a runoff over Santoro. Lousteau would easily crush Santoro, and while he'd probably easily crush Marra too it'd be less predictable. His control over the city legislature is also dangerously close to being lost if Marra does well (the balance is 32-28 right now, but 2 of the pro-government members are from Republicanos Unidos and aren't reliable)

Anyway, I almost posted my update but decided it needs slightly more touching up. So in the meantime, an interesting poll came out of La Matanza mapping the areas of relative strength for Bullrich, Milei and Mayor Espinoza:

https://twitter.com/TognettiDaniel/status/1646675625397067778

https://twitter.com/TognettiDaniel/status/1646675637149605889

Milei and Bullrich have similar policies but totally different bases of support. Bullrich is absolutely dominant in the relatively prosperous enclave of Ramos Mejía but totally nonexistent everywhere else. Whereas Milei's support is spread across the district, and of all places his best neighbourhood is Ciudad Evita, a planned neighbourhood designed in the shape of Eva Peron's face.

There are rumours that the Peronists gave support to Milei's party with the hope of splitting the anti-Peronist vote. But it turns out he's splitting their vote instead. Womp womp

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Polls close at 6 PM for the elections tomorrow. It'll take some time to tabulate all the different collector lists so results should hopefully be out later that night.

In other news, the blue dollar continues to climb as inflation broke triple digits. If 50 Cent goes to Argentina they'll have to call him

https://twitter.com/LHDA16/status/1646606388553043987

Also, Milei visited Ushuaia, the world's southernmost city, to support his local candidates in the provincial elections coming up in May.

https://twitter.com/Figueroa_Reyes/status/1647383712072384516

[Bilardista]

Today the electoral calendar kicks in with two provincial elections:

The patagonian provinces of Neuquén and Río Negro, each of about half a million people, will elect their governors, their legislatures and a bunch of other positions (city and town mayors, local councils, etc).


In Neuquén there are six candidates vying for the top job, of which two in particular have real chances of winning.

The ruling MPN (Movimiento Popular Neuquino) will go for their 14th consecutive victory (yes, they've been in power since 1962), and have put forward vicegovernor Marcos Koopmann as their candidate. He has the backing of outgoing governor Omar Gutiérrez, of the Sapag family (who founded the party in the 60's and control it to this day) and the Union of Oil workers, the most powerful union in the province and very influential within the MPN.

The main challenger is Rolando Figueroa. A longtime member of the MPN, came to be an important figure within the party, even serving as vicegovernor in 2015-2019, during Gutiérrez first term. But in the last couple of years the relationship with the party leadership soured and when Koopman was chosen over him, Figueroa left to run on his own. At first he tried to build a broad opposition front that combined his dissident faction of the MPN, the PJ and JxC, didn't quite succed but still managed to get the support of many peronists and non peronists, who see him as the best shot they have to finally beat the MPN.

And he's certainly well positioned to do so, "Rolo" is a charismatic and well known figure, capable of appealing to MPN voters by defending the achievements of past administrations, while also drawing opponents by criticizing the current one and accusing the Sapag family of becoming corrupt and of turning Neuquén into their own personal fiefdom.

All polls have Koopman and Figueroa neck and neck and far ahead of the rest of candidates, so the race will probably be decided between those two.


In the case of Río Negro there are many candidates, but only one worth mentioning.

Alberto Weretilneck served as mayor of Cipolletti (the third largest city in the province) from 2003 to 2011, and was then elected vicegovernor in the historic election of 2011 that ended 28 years of uninterrupted radical rule. But when his running mate suddeny died 20 days after taking office, Weretilneck became governor. Initially allied to the PJ, disagreements in 2014 lead to him creating "Juntos somos Río Negro" (JSRN), a provincial party that quickly absorbed much of the PJ and the UCR (which had almost collapsed after 2011).

Comfortably reelected in 2015 (52% of the vote), he coudn't serve a third term in 2019 so he chose his minister of tourism, Arabela Carreras, to run in his stead. And she also won comfortably (again 52%), while the boss went to kill some time in the senate. Now he's back, and not only does he have a high approval, he manoeuvred to get the support of the two main "opposition" parties, the PJ and the UCR, who officially endorsed him (if you can't beat them, join them). There are of course dissidents running their own cadidates, but the move succesfuly plunged the opposition into disarray, and makes his victory seem secure, polling puts him ~20 points ahead of the closest competitor, Aníbal Tortoriello of the rump JxC.


There's a third election today that i'll be looking at, the muicipal one of Trelew, the second largest city in the province of Chubut. It's pretty minor and inconsequential as far as national politics go, but it could have a significant effect in the upcoming gubernatorial election in Chubut.

There isn't any polling i could find, but the consensus is that the most important candidates are:

- Leila Lloyd Jones (Somos Trelew)
- Emanuel Coliñir (Frente de Todos)
- Gustavo Mac Karthy (Por la Libertad Independiente Chubutense)
- Gerardo Merino (Juntos por el Cambio Trelew)

Lloyd Jones seems to be the favourite, mostly due to the support of the current mayor Adrian Maderna and the advantage that is having the resources of his administration on her side, but Merino seems to have gained a lot of traction recently. This probably due to the fact that, while Coliñir and Mac Karthy are also critical of Maderna, Merino is the only non peronist of the three (he's the head of the local UCR to be more precise). In that sense he could better appeal to the more opposition voter better than the other candidates, who were allied to Maderna at some point or another. But it's far from clear who will win the race, so i'll be watching with interest.

[MaxQue]

Trelew and Lloyd Jones? Is that a Welsh area?

[Peeperkorn]

Trelew and Lloyd Jones? Is that a Welsh area?

Yes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Y_Wladfa

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Official results (NQN) should start releasing here some time between 7 and 9

The last minute polls are all over the place but the general tendency seems to have changed little since campaigning started: the two MPN candidates fighting for first and the rest battling for third. Though exactly how big that gap is remains to be seen. My best guess would be something like

Koopmann (MPN): 31%
Figuroa (Comunidad - PRO + PJ + NCN + MPN Rebels):  27%
Ramón Rioseco (Frente Neuquino de Todos): 15%
Carlos Eguia (Libertarios): 11%
Pablo Cervi (JxC): 10%
Patricia Jure (FIT): 6%

but that's a very low confidence prediction. Rioseco and Eguia in particular have a huge polling range, anywhere from single digits to pushing 20%. So its possible the field winds up more divided than expected, or on the flipside that the vote consolidates towards the top two.

EDIT: Polls closed. Pagina12 also has a map of the results but I'm pretty sure they're showing placeholder results right now for some reason

Two exit polls floating around with wildly different results:

EP1:

Figuroa (Comunidad - PRO + PJ + NCN + MPN Rebels):  37%
Koopmann (MPN): 30%
Carlos Eguia (Libertarios): 7%
Pablo Cervi (JxC): 7%
Ramón Rioseco (Frente Neuquino de Todos): 5%
Patricia Jure (FIT): 1%

EP2:

Koopmann (MPN): 28.8%
Figuroa (Comunidad - PRO + PJ + NCN + MPN Rebels):  26.6%
Ramón Rioseco (Frente Neuquino de Todos): 14.5%
Carlos Eguia (Libertarios): 13.5%
Pablo Cervi (JxC): 10.6%
Patricia Jure (FIT): 5.6%

EDIT 2: and just to round it out, a third:

Koopmann (MPN): 27.9%
Figuroa (Comunidad - PRO + PJ + NCN + MPN Rebels):  26.3%
Carlos Eguia (Libertarios): 16.4%
Ramón Rioseco (Frente Neuquino de Todos): 13.7%
Pablo Cervi (JxC): 11.7%
Patricia Jure (FIT): 4.0%

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

The very first fully counted station from the town of Plottier:

Figuroa (Comunidad - PRO + PJ + NCN + MPN Rebels) 115
Koopmann (MPN) 78
Carlos Eguia (Libertarios) 32
Ramón Rioseco (Frente Neuquino de Todos): 30
Pablo Cervi (JxC): 10
Patricia Jure (FIT): 4

EDIT: with ~50% counted the official site has the results at

Figuroa (Comunidad - PRO + PJ + NCN + MPN Rebels): 36%
Koopmann (MPN): 32%
Ramón Rioseco (Frente Neuquino de Todos): 11%
Carlos Eguia (Libertarios) 10%
Pablo Cervi (JxC): 4%
Patricia Jure (FIT): 4%

turnout estimated at around 75%, lower than usual and a sign of dissatisfaction

EDIT 2: at 71% the results are

Figuroa (Comunidad - PRO + PJ + NCN + MPN Rebels): 36%
Koopmann (MPN): 32%
Ramón Rioseco (Frente Neuquino de Todos): 12%
Carlos Eguia (Libertarios) 9%
Pablo Cervi (JxC): 4%
Patricia Jure (FIT): 4%

Things could change slightly when everything is fully counted but I feel like I can answer all the questions I asked in my initial post:

How tied are the various independent Peronist provincial parties to the failures of the national government?

Hard to say, but the MPN losing for the first time in over sixty years is definitely a sign that there's some real vulnerability and that blame isn't just landing squarely at the feet of Todos. On the other hand, the fact that they lost to a rebel whose top performing list was full of handpicked MPN rebels suggests that the MPN still holds more influence over local elections than the national parties do.

How many votes can the left wing of Juntos pull when they run separately?

Not very many. 4% is an abysmal showing considering the polls, but I think there's an easy explanation for the polling miss: voters of lists that sided with Figueroa, some from FdT and most from JxC, would vote for their national list in the poll, but in the actual election they voted for their party lists and boosted Figueroa.

How many hardline supporters of the Justicialistas fall behind their independent candidate?

Not very many either, but at least more than Cervi managed. FdT has been on a steep decline for the past several years, going from 30% in 2019 to around 12% today. Yet another sign that things are looking grim for them in 2023. Still, at least they can take some comfort in the fact that the total for all the parties behind them in 2021 (including the ones that went to Figueroa) didn't drop too much, which is more than can be said for the Radicals.

How many votes do the candidates backed by Milei pull without his name on the ballot?

More than are pulled by any other national figure but not enough to actually win a provicial election. Eguia's results are very weird in that on the one hand you could say he got under 10% and fewer votes than in 2021, meaning he fell short of his goal and failed. On the other, his individual list is the second most voted (narrowly ahead of Figueroa) and his party is third in the legislature, beating out both JxC and FdT. If you do the least poorly of the national forces is that good or bad ?

so basically

* Figueroa is the big winner, but apparently as the result of having a ton of allies from both major fronts rather than personal strength or popularity, plus the relative weakness of the MPN. The electoral system did a lot of the heavy lifting

* Koopmann did about as well as expected but lost to consolidation of the opposition. The MPN is still the largest single list in the province and the biggest winner of legislative seats so the result is bad but not terrible.

* If there's a "biggest loser" it's the perceived pull of the national parties and figures over local elections. Macri and Larreta will claim credit that they endorsed the winning horse but their respective lists didn't do particularly well. Alliance building and campaigning won out.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

More or less final results for Neuquén (98% counted):

Figuroa (Comunidad - PRO + PJ + NCN + MPN Rebels): 36%
Koopmann (MPN): 33%
Ramón Rioseco (Frente Neuquino de Todos): 13%
Carlos Eguia (Libertarios) 8%
Pablo Cervi (JxC): 4%
Patricia Jure (FIT): 3%

The legislative results by projected seats (out of 35):

MPN: 14
Comunidad: 5
Libertarios: 3
PRO: 2
Libres del Sur: 2
FdT: 2
Iguales: 1
Frente Nuevo Neuquén: 1
Juntos por el Cambio: 1
Avanzar Neuquén: 1
Arriba Neuquén: 1
FIT: 1

now for the other results, fresh from Trelew with 94% of the vote counted we have

JxC Trelew: 34%
FdT Trelew: 16%
Por La Libertad Independiente Chubutense: 15%
Somos Trelew: 14%

The three Peronists split their vote almost perfectly evenly and left a clear path to the lone Gorilla.

and with 45% of the vote counted in Río Negro it currently stands at:

JSRN: 37%
JxC: 24%
FdT: 13%
Primero Río Negro: 10%
Unidad Para La Victoria: 5%
FIT: 4%

A definite underperformance from Weretilnick, but still a relatively easy win thanks to the divided opposition. Some outlets failed to account for the collector list and have the race neck and neck.

Between the three elections Peronism as a default choice seems to be the biggest loser.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Results are more or less finalized.

Neuquén legislature:

Comunidad (and allies): 13
MPN: 12
Libertarios: 4
FdT: 3
FIT: 2
Juntos por el Cambio: 1

The extremely concentrated Libertarian and Leftist votes combined with D'Hondt Magic to boost their seat totals over Todos and Juntos, respectively. Note that PRO is counted as a Communidad ally as are several FdT affiliated collectors so the situation isn't quite as dire for either coalition is it looks.

Río Negro

JSRN: 42%
JxC: 24%
FdT: 11%
Primero Río Negro: 9%
Unidad Para La Victoria: 5%
FIT: 3%

Legislative seats (out of 46):

JSRN: 25
JxC: 15
FdT: 4
Primero Río Negro: 2

An easy victory for JSRN, though this is also the worst result for Weretilnick's force yet. JxC totally displaced FdT as the primary opposition force, something that's probably setting off warning alarms for governors associated with oficialismo across the interior. Despite winning a higher proportion of the vote, Rivero wound up winning a far smaller proportion of the seats than his counterpart across the border because his vote was more evenly distributed and the opposition more concentrated. D'Hondt giveth and D'Hondt taketh away.

Up next in less than a month we have three provincial elections on May 7th:

Misiones: A likely stomp, considering the governing Frente Renovador de la Concordia hasn't won less than 60% of the vote since 2011, has no solid opposition and is relatively popular so far as provincial governments go. Juntos might stand to gain some ground from the general anti-Peronist sentiment if nothing else, but actual victory seems out of the question.

Jujuy: One of the only northwestern provinces to support the opposition, specifically UCR kingpin Gerardo Morales. Alejandro Vilca's ability to build on the strong 2021 performance of FIT-U is something to keep an eye on. His support mostly seems to come out of the comparative weakness of Todos, though, so it seems likely that the government holds on without much issue.

La Rioja: Ordinarily one of the staunchest Justicialista provinces in the country, where the Radicals haven't managed to produce a single close result since the end of the '73 military dictatorship. However, this election will be complicated by the general FdT collapse in the interior and the fact that Martín Menem will be running as Milei's representative. The general weakness of Todos could allow the opposition to finally kick the football and unseat Governor Ricardo Quintela, though a stronger than expected Menem performance could weaken the opposition enough to let the Peronists hold on. This is probably the only election likely to be close so it'll probably be the one I pay the most attention to.

A week later there are five races in typically Kirchnerist provinces that are expected to be close: La Pampa, Salta, Tierra del Fuego, Tucumán and San Juan. La Pampa's election is a straightforward Radical-Peronist contest, Salta's is a confusing mess of cross-ideological coalitions (kind of like Neuquén's actually) while Tierra del Fuego, Tucumán and San Juan are all "two and a half" way races with libertarian backed parties fighting for space. I might give a more detailed writeup as those elections come closer but the most interesting at a first glance is that of Salta.

In recent news yesterday the Blue Dollar broke 420, but before anyone had time to light a blunt it continued right past 430. The combination of a severe drought hammering agricultural exports, a global dollar shortage and a total collapse in confidence has brought back the chaos of the Batakis period.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

The JxC primary for mayor of Buenos Aires got a lot messier in the last few days

Rodriguez Larreta had said, less than 2 weeks ago, that there would be only one candidate in for the Pro ballot for mayor, within the JxC primaries (which would also include Larreta's former rival turned ally Martín Lusteau on an UCR ballot within the government coalition ballot). This unified candidacy was going to be Jorge Macri, the former president's cousin, former mayor of the suburban county of Vicente Lopez.
However there are a few arguments within Pro, OTOH the more easily explainable, Soledad Acuña and Fernán Quirós, the city's education and health ministers, respectively, also want to run for mayor
The other issue (whether the elections for the city's authorities [using and the national elections should be held simultaneously, using two different ballot methods, or as part of one single election*) an excuse for some conflict between the Macris on one side, backed by Bulrich and María Eugenia Vidal, and Larreta and Lousteau, with the support of the UCR and Lilita Carrió on the other

*Larreta wants to use a single instant printed electronic ballot for the city elections (a position that Mauricio Macri himself strongly supported for the 2015 and 2019 elections), while  Jorge Macri supports using the traditional way - each list having its own paper ballot
Todos primary

Jorge Macri has officially, if not very reluctantly, accepted that he'll run in the Pro's primary for mayor of Buenos Aires against Larreta's preferred candidate(s): Acuña and/or Quirós, with the former president's cousin seeing this as a sign that Larreta wants to weaken the  Pro's "hawk" faction / creating unity within the party in an attempt to semi-informally support Lousteau in the mayoral race (it's not as if Jorge's allies have done much to unify the party either IMO)

[jman123]

ALBERTO FERNÁNDEZ NOT SEEKING REELECTION!

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Alberto Fernández (Todos) has announced that he won't run for president in this election

"El próximo 10 de diciembre de 2023 es el día exacto que cumplamos 40 años de democracia. Ese día entregaré la banda presidencial a quien haya sido elegido legítimamente en las urnas por el voto popular. Trabajaré fervientemente para que sea un compañero o una compañera de nuestro espacio político que represente a quienes seguimos y seguiremos luchando por una patria justa, con equidad y felicidad para todos y todas”

This, combined with Cristina's seeming unwillingness to run for a third term, has left the government coalition with an uninspiring, at best, roster of comfirmed and semi confirmed candidates: Daniel Scioli, Jorge Capitanich, Juan Grabois and Claudio Lozano

[Bilardista]

It's going to be Massa. Everyone else will drop out for the sake of unity, though Grabois could compete anyway outside of the FDT. A primary now just doesn't make any sense, they should all get behind a sacrificial lamb candidate, and minimize damage as much as they can.

[Edu]

lol At this point Alberto Fernandez should consider pulling a Budd Dwyer so he can be remembered for anything apart from being an abject failure.

[Mike88]

Larreta is the most likely candidate to win the JxC primary, right?

[Bilardista]

Larreta is the most likely candidate to win the JxC primary, right?

Most polls have him ahead, but i personally get the feeling he is more popular with the wider electorate than with those who'll actually vote in that primary (the opposite being the case with Bullrich)

[jman123]

How do you see Millei in this?

[Bilardista]

How do you see Millei in this?

In what specifically?

[Red Velvet]

How do you see Millei in this?

He’s probably winning tbh. It’s either him or the JxC option and he’s the more “exciting” option. If I had to guess based on the trends we usually see in these scenarios, is that the trend until the election is for the vote intention for Milei to grow while the JxC one goes down.

I actually think Frente de Todos has very decent chances of going to a presidential runoff even with a lesser known option considering that there will be SOME later last minute opposition to conservative project during election time and that the right-wing vote will be overwhelming this year, but also very divided between Milei vs JxC. But they will inevitably lose in second round to whoever they go up against.

I miss the 00s, apparently Brazil and Argentina cannot ever get aligned governments for more than a year these days. Just as Brazil gets rid of our crazy far-right guy, Argentina gets theirs.

[buritobr]

Alberto Fernandez is the François Hollande of the Southern Hemisphere

[jman123]

How do you see Millei in this?

In what specifically?

Do you see Millei winning?