Argentina 2023 election

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Working on a more substantive post but in the meantime:

* After the shock defeat to Saudi Arabia the top minds of C5N have figured out who holds responsibility: Mauricio Macri

https://twitter.com/nanothompson/status/1595226851068477440

This comes after the government responded to a Big Brother participant accusing Alberto of corruption by flipping out and demanding the show be cancelled.

* Some lady named her baby Natan Milei Evenecer Paniagua Quispe

https://twitter.com/todonoticias/status/1587266969819967488

* Some picketers were occupying a highway in Chaco demanding money, an increasingly common sight in the interior. But they made a fatal mistake when they tried to hold up the barra bravas (football ultras/hooligans) of Club Atlético Talleres, who came out literally blasting with guns and knives.

https://twitter.com/FabianCosta1/status/1575222367949033472

[PSOL]

There’s a poll of FIT with 6.5% of the vote. It’s most likely inflated, but one can dream.

[Peeperkorn]

There’s a poll of FIT with 6.5% of the vote. It’s most likely inflated, but one can dream.

Not happening.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

VP Cristina Fernández has been sentenced  by the Supreme Court to 6 years in jail for corruption in the Vialidad trial, for fraudulently awarding public works contracts in her stronghold province of Santa Cruz (her husband's province) during her two terms as President (2007-2015). She's also barred for life from holding public office [some are saying it may only apply to unelected posts] As she's the VP it's unlikely she'll serve any time in jai at least l until her term ends

Businessman Lázaro Báez has also been sentenced to the same jail term for his involvement in the case

[Edu]

Yeah, she will never see jail time because the appeals will take years, she still has immunity and she would be too old anyways, but at least she was sentenced. History books will accurately say that she's a thief lol

Hope she runs in 2023, gets crushed and then dies like a month before finishing her house arrest time, would be hilarious.

[Bilardista]

VP Cristina Fernández has been sentenced  by the Supreme Court to 6 years in jail for corruption in the Vialidad trial, for fraudulently awarding public works contracts in her stronghold province of Santa Cruz (her husband's province) during her two terms as President (2007-2015). She's also barred for life from holding public office [some are saying it may only apply to unelected posts] As she's the VP it's unlikely she'll serve any time in jai at least l until her term ends

Businessman Lázaro Báez has also been sentenced to the same jail term for his involvement in the case

It's not the supreme court though, if it were it'd be a massive deal as she'd be barred from runing for office next year (wich ultimately is the bigger punishment here, she'll never actually go to prision, just a few years of house arrest). But this was a lesser tribunal, she still has two more instances of appeal, meaning it'll be many years before we get an actual conviction. In the meantime she'll either run for president (risky choice) or senator (the safer choice) and get immunity, that's what Menem did.

[Estrella]

In the latest dispute about coparticipación (federal tax revenue distributed to the provinces, think Canada's equalization), the Supreme Court struck down a law that would halve the amount of funds the oppositon-run city of Buenos Aires is entitled to, which means it gets to keep around $1 billion in funding. Other provinces would still receive literally 97% of the coparticipación money, but the government and Peronist governors reacted by going into a full "f/ck the law, I do what I want" mode. Alberto declared he will just... straight up ignore the ruling.

Trump ain't got nothing on this.

[Edu]

Only this government of complete dipsh*ts can look at Peru and say: "Hey, that looks awesome, let's do our best to replicate it"

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

In the latest dispute about coparticipación (federal tax revenue distributed to the provinces, think Canada's equalization), the Supreme Court struck down a law that would halve the amount of funds the oppositon-run city of Buenos Aires is entitled to, which means it gets to keep around $1 billion in funding. Other provinces would still receive literally 97% of the coparticipación money, but the government and Peronist governors reacted by going into a full "f/ck the law, I do what I want" mode. Alberto declared he will just... straight up ignore the ruling.

Trump ain't got nothing on this.

But thus completely OK because the Supreme Court are a bunch of dummies that don't realize that Buenls Aires City isn't a real province (después the Constitution saying it is one in all but name) , and ...uh... It doesn't have any primary/secondary sector economic activities (which is a complete lie as well) 

https://mobile.twitter.com/QuintelaRicardo/status/1605619753174724609
https://mobile.twitter.com/QuintelaRicardo/status/1605619755737485312

Btw, this guy's an incumbent governor, and not even one of the perpetual meme ones like Alicia Kirchner or Gildo Isfran

[Estrella]

This article is mostly a summary of Alberto's legal strategy (we can't give them the money because the budget has already been passed) and Cristina calling the judges coupists, but hidden in the last paragraph is this gem:

El jueves, en una reunión en Casa Rosada, hubo mandatarios provinciales que reclamaron iniciar un juicio político contra los ministros de la Corte, directamente, pidieron que el Gobierno desconociera, sin más, el fallo dictado por el máximo tribunal. Fernández y sus funcionarios replicaron con la propuesta de recusar a los jueces - en lugar del juicio político - y pedir la revocatoria del fallo.

If what the government is doing seems anti-democratic, the (to borrow a great phrase from Alex) perpetual meme governors wanted to impeach the Supreme Court justices.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Argentina and infighting between Buenos Aires and the provinces. Name a more iconic duo.

[Edu]

Argentina and infighting between Buenos Aires and the provinces. Name a more iconic duo.

In this case it's more like the City of Buenos Aires + provinces of Córdoba, Santa Fe, Mendoza, Jujuy and Corrientes against the Province of Buenos Aires + the rest of the sh*thole provinces

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Only this government of complete dipsh*ts can look at Peru and say: "Hey, that looks awesome, let's do our best to replicate it"

You’ve heard of Fujimorism with Maoist characteristics?

I give you Peronism with Peronist characteristics.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

The government and their allied governors are are going to begin an impeachment against the President of the Supreme Court over this (!)

https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/alberto-fernandez-y-gobernadores-pediran-el-juicio-politico-del-presidente-de-la-corte-suprema-nid01012023/

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Between now and the general election almost all of the provinces will be holding their elections.

There's some flexibility on dates but the likely first to go is Neuquén, the oil and gas boom state of northern Patagonia.

Neuquén has been governed by the independent Peronist Movimiento Popular Neuquino (MPN) for the past several decades without interruption. This time around, however, there seems to be a real fight for the governorship between officialista (EDIT: and current Lt. Gov) Marcos Koopmann and former Lt. Gov Rolando Figueroa, who left the MPN to make an independent run backed by a broad opposition coalition including PRO and a large portion of Neuquén's FdT. The field is split by an additional three major candidates:  Ramón Rioseco and Pablo Cervi backed by the portion of Partido Justicialista and UCR/CC-ARI respectively that opted to run independently, plus Carlos Eguia, 2021 CC-ARI candidate turned Mileista running for the Libertarians.

The election will likely be called sometime between March and April and the general consensus seems to be that Koopmann and Figuroa are in a very close race for first, but the other candidates aren't completely out of the race either. Something like a 30-30 split for the leaders, followed by a range from 10 to 20 for the other three.

In a few ways the election will serve as a preview that could answer several important questions:

* How tied are the various independent Peronist provincial parties to the failures of the national government? Many such parties have done badly in recent byelections, and if that trends continues with an MPN defeat that would have big implications for the larger provinces governed by such parties, most notably Córdoba governor Juan Schiaretti.

* How many votes can the left wing of Juntos pull when they run separately? A strong result from Pablo Cervi could give them a stronger hand in negotiations with the coalition, and a bigger incentive to break off if it moves too far right

* How many hardline supporters of the Justicialistas fall behind their independent candidate? A strong performance would be a big morale boost after months of high profile failures.

* How many votes do the candidates backed by Milei pull without his name on the ballot? This is the first election since 2021 where he's explicitly campaigned for anyone and is running an independent list. While his weak organization combined with a notoriously low turnout young and poor base of support suggests his support won't fully transfer, even 10-15% would elect several libertarian legislators.

EDIT: Minor errors corrected. Confusingly both Koopmann and Figueroa are ex-Lt.Governors

[Edu]

Lol now Fernández and 11 governors are calling for the impeachment of all supreme court justices. Joke government

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Mayor of Buenos Aires City Horacio Rodríguez Larreta (Pro/JxC) launched what I'm pretty sure is the first official ad in his presidential campaign https://mobile.twitter.com/horaciorlarreta/status/1628771672093511683
His former deputy, and current Diputado for Buenos Aires Province Diego Santilli will run for governor of Buenos Aires Province

Schiaretti, the independent peronista governor of Cordoba, has been airing a suspiciously high amount of ads in recent weeks, officially just as governor, but they're pretty transparently unofficial ads for his presidential race, which he announced months ago in a coalition with former governor of Salta, Juan Manuel Urtubey and a few other parties that were part of Lavagna's 2019 campaign. As with any independent peronista or third party candidate with actual expectations we'll jave to wait a few months to see if he actually runs or gets into an alliance with someone else

In other news, the PASO primaries for the first gubernatorial election of the year took place on Feb 16 and the UCR candidate Martin Berhongaray defeated Pro's Martín Maquieyra in JxC's primary race for governor, while Todos decided not to run a primary and have the incumbent governor Sergio Zilotto as the leader of an unity list. The more minor coalitions (FIT-U and a bunch pf provincial parties) also decided not to participate in the primaries

 The electoral calendar for 2023 will be veryy fragmented as many governors chose not to unify the dates for the gubernatorial and presidential elections this year

[jman123]

How do you rate these elections? For President

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

I'm not sure if Patricia Bullrich, the head of the more hardline wing (more socially conservative, focused on law and order and closer to right wing populism and Milei) of the Pro and former security minister, has 100% officially launched her  presidential campaign, but I've seen so many billboards and posters on the street of her supporting well over a dozen candidates already

On the Todos front, I've also seen several almost unofficial looking street posters calling for Juan Grabois (Patria Grande) for president, which is quite surprising as other than by Pope Francis he isn't particularly well liked by anyone either within the government or society in general (but then again this stands for anyone in the national government as well). Many politicians within Todos are calling for Cristina to be let to run in the elections, despite her worthless promise that she doesn't want to run.

[Estrella]

Many politicians within Todos are calling for Cristina to be let to run in the elections, despite her worthless promise that she doesn't want to run.

Are they just cultists being cultist, do they think Cristina would get Todos a decent result and help save the furniture in the legislature, or do they want her defeated to finally get rid of her?

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Working on a big post about the presidential election but it's grown to be gargantuan so I'll start with a minor update on Neuquén, where there's finally a public poll out. By candidate they have it at

Koopmann (MPN): 32%
Figuroa (Comunidad - PRO + PJ + NCN + MPN Rebels):  19%
Ramón Rioseco (Frente Neuquino de Todos): 18%
Pablo Cervi (JxC): 13%
Carlos Eguia (Libertarios): 12%
Patricia Jure (FIT): 5%

by political space:

MPN: 32%
Libertarios: 18%
Frente Neuquino de Todos: 17%
Juntos por el Cambio: 16%
Comunidad: 10%
FIT: 7%

There was a fight between Cervi and Figueroa over control of the Juntos label that was won by Cervi, so he'll be the official candidate. Had he lost it likely would have been the end of his candidacy, since Cervi is literally the least known of all the candidates and wouldn't get far on his own. Regardless, despite the MPN headed for its worst result in decades they seem likely to prevail over the heavily divided opposition.

Also, they've finally decided on an election date: April 16th, a date that will be shared with various municipalities plus the neighbouring state of Río Negro. I thought about writing up a post about Río Negro's election but quickly realized that it's basically like Neuquén, except the governing JSRN is even more entrenched while the opposition parties are even weaker and more divided, so there isn't much to talk about.

Of the municipal elections the most interesting might be that of Trelew in Chubut, where a battle between the Peronists ended in an acrimonious breakup. Emanuel Coliñir easily won the PASO, while defector Federico Massoni lost as the UCR candidate against PRO's Gerardo Merino. Strangest of all, former mayor and Lt. Gov Gustavo Mac Karthy, scion of a Peronist senator turned energy secretary, decided to jump ship to run as the candidate of "Por la Libertad Independiente Chubutense" (PLICh), the front backed by Milei.

[Peeperkorn]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1635752878445830146?s=20

[Bilardista]

Today Gerardo Morales, governor of Jujuy and president of the UCR, officially announced he's running for president. Some of them might drop out, but for now there are five "precandidatos" in the JxC primary:

• Gerardo Morales (UCR)
• Horacio Rodríguez Larreta (PRO)

• Patricia Bullrich (PRO)
• Facundo Manes (UCR)

• María Eugenia Vidal (PRO)

There's been some talk of the UCR having a party primary first to decide on a single candidate, so as not to split the radical vote. That would be really interesting given the contrast between Morales, the most generic career politician imaginable, and Manes, an outsider technocrat-like neuroscientist.

It also remains to be seen what Macri ends up doing, he toyed with the possibility of runing again this year, but now he seems to be instead aiming for the role of kingmaker, using his influence to support Bullrich, the only candidate that has defended him and his term as president.


Meanwhile the ruling FDT is at an impasse about who will be their candidate. President Alberto Fernández wants to run, but outside of a small group of supporters, no one else wants him to, either because they think he'll lose badly or because they just hate his guts and want him to go away as soon as possible. But he's dead set on running, i assume not because he thinks he can actually win but rather to mantain what little authority he still has and to stave off the vultures flying over the rotting carcass that is his government. Also probably to piss off Cristina and La Cámpora, it really seems to have reached that level of pettiness.

Cristina's indicision about what to do doesn't help in all this. She's said she doesn't want to run (and probably means it, she seems genuinely tired of it all), but she doesn't have a candidate of her own to challenge Alberto in a primary or take his place if the later were finally forced to drop out. Her political protégé Axel Kicillof is the closest she has to a succesor, but he's running for reelection in Buenos Aires, and the kirchnerist camp doesn't seem to have any good or reconizable candidates, only unispiring names like interior minister Wado de Pedro or Chaco's governor Jorge Capitanich.

She could bite the bullet and run hersef, the peronist movement would certainly rally behind her and Alberto wouldn't be able to withstand the pressure to drop out. But then she'd likely lose the election, the worst defeat in her career and an unbearable stain in her legacy. Screwing over Alberto ain't worth that much.

Then there's Sergio Massa, the third member of the governing triumvirate. The "superminister" of economy was the key to solving the government crisis of June-August of last year, when he effectively took charge of most of the government direction, he's since been acting as a primer minister of sorts, and some see him as a potential compromise candidate. Most peronists don't like or trust him very much, but few hate him and i think he's garnered a lot of respect whitin the movement in the last few years, he's proved himself a more politically skilled and conciliatory figure than most thought. So far he's remained quiet about any candidacy, probably waiting to see how things develop, i don't think he'd want to go to a primary against the president, but if he were offered to be anointed as the unity candidate after some conclave, he'd accept in a heartbeat.

There's still time for an agreement to come about, but first negotiations will be necessary, and Aberto and Cristina have barely spoken to each other in the last two years, they don't even hide their mutual disdain anymore. The lack of any clear leadership, the birth defect that has always hindered this governement, makes the formation of negotiation table where all factions of the FDT can sit and talk, very, very dificult.

[Edu]

There's still time for an agreement to come about, but first negotiations will be necessary, and Aberto and Cristina have barely spoken to each other in the last two years, they don't even hide their mutual disdain anymore. The lack of any clear leadership, the birth defect that has always hindered this governement, makes the formation of negotiation table where all factions of the FDT can sit and talk, very, very dificult.

The new flavor of the month appears to be Daniel Scioli lol. Popping up quite a bit lately.

[jman123]

I just heard that Mauricio Macri won't run for President of Argentina this year.