🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[Mike88]

Montenegro maintains his word regarding CHEGA, "No is no".

[Mike88]

Looks like Chega's voting pattern is typical for European nationalist right-wing parties in that they do best in peripheral areas with working-class voters, although fairly well distributed over the entire country and over most areas - and is in that regard different from the pattern of Spanish Vox, which follows the Latin American pattern of wealthier = more right-wing more closely.

I’ve always said VOX is the right-wing party that resembles Latin American Right the MOST.

Spain always striked me as more politically similar to my country than Portugal, which was always quite alien.

I think Spain is undoubtedly the main point of political comparison with Latin America, including Brazil, because Portugal feels way more “European” in its politics. I even see freaking Italy closer to LatAm than Portugal.

Portuguese politics, some say, is heading to a "nordic model".

[Logical]

Montenegro maintains his word regarding CHEGA, "No is no".

New elections within a year if he sticks to that promise.

[Mike88]

Montenegro says that he expects to be nominated Prime Minister by President Marcelo and that he will form a government. He also pointed that the government will only be blocked if PS and CHEGA form a "negative coalition".

[Red Velvet]

Looks like Chega's voting pattern is typical for European nationalist right-wing parties in that they do best in peripheral areas with working-class voters, although fairly well distributed over the entire country and over most areas - and is in that regard different from the pattern of Spanish Vox, which follows the Latin American pattern of wealthier = more right-wing more closely.

I’ve always said VOX is the right-wing party that resembles Latin American Right the MOST.

Spain always striked me as more politically similar to my country than Portugal, which was always quite alien.

I think Spain is undoubtedly the main point of political comparison with Latin America, including Brazil, because Portugal feels way more “European” in its politics. I even see freaking Italy closer to LatAm than Portugal.

Portuguese politics, some say, is heading to a "nordic model".

Let’s not exaggerate hahaha

I think Spain and Italy are much closer to LatAm politics, but Portugal would probably come after them before say, France; Germany or anywhere else.

[Mike88]

Montenegro maintains his word regarding CHEGA, "No is no".

New elections within a year if he sticks to that promise.

It's a possibility, new elections in late 2024 or early 2025, but there's a caveat: If Montenegro is able to pass a budget for 2025, by the summer of 2025, the President of the Republic is forbidden to dissolve Parliament as the law says that a President at the end of his/her term cannot dissolve Parliament in his last six months in office. The same thing happens to the new President, which cannot dissolve Parliament in the first six months of his/her term. So, if nothing happens by the summer of 2025, new elections can only be called after September 2026.

[Mike88]

There's also a new doubt: Madeira

The PSD coalition easily won and decreased just a bit, while the PS collapsed and was just a few votes ahead of CHEGA. The 2nd PS MP elected from Madeira, former party leader Carlos Pereira, wants Paulo Cafôfo to resign from the leadership. Marcelo will decide the future of Madeira in the end of March.

[Mike88]

Finally, we have the provisional final results.

29.5% PSD/CDS/PPM (-1.4), 79 seats (+3)
28.7% PS (-13.0), 77 (-40)
18.1% CHEGA (+10.9), 48 (+36)
  5.1% IL (+0.1), 8 (nc)
  4.5% BE (nc), 5 (nc)
  3.3% CDU (-0.9), 4 (-2)
  3.3% Livre (+2.0), 4 (+3)
  1.9% PAN (+0.4), 1 (nc)
  1.6% ADN (+1.4)
  0.4% RIR (nc)
  0.3% JPP (+0.1)
  0.2% PCTP/MRPP (nc)
  0.2% ND (new)
  0.2% Volt (+0.1)
  0.1% E (nc)
  0.1% A21 (-0.1)
  0.0% PTP (-0.1)
  0.0% NC (-0.1)
  0.0% PPM (nc)
  2.5% Blank/Invalid (-0.4)

66.2% Turnout (+8.3)

This is the closest general election in Portuguese democracy, with the highest number of ballots ever cast in democracy, 6,140,289 votes.

[Oryxslayer]

Well, final without the overseas votes/seats that is.

[Mike88]

Well, final without the overseas votes/seats that is.

Already corrected.

[Harlow]

Used YAPMS to make a map of which party won the mucipalities on the mainland since I hadn't seen that yet. CHEGA's municipalities make something resembling a dog's face. Not that that means anything... or does it?

[Mike88]

Wait, Salvaterra de Magos, a city previously governed by BE, voted CHEGA??

[Mike88]

My hometown, Póvoa de Varzim, Porto district, results:

38.9% PSD/CDS/PPM (-6.0)
21.4% PS (-10.8 )
18.8% CHEGA (+12.1)
  5.7% IL (+0.7)
  3.7% BE (+0.1)
  2.8% Livre (+1.7)
  2.4% ADN (+2.3)
  1.5% CDU (-0.7)
  1.5% PAN (+0.2)
  1.2% Others (+0.3)
  2.2% Blank/Invalid (+0.3)

65.0% Turnout (+9.0)

[Harlow]

Wait, Salvaterra de Magos, a city previously governed by BE, voted CHEGA??

According to the official results page.

https://www.legislativas2024.mai.gov.pt/resultados/territorio-nacional?local=LOCAL-141500

[Mike88]

Wait, Salvaterra de Magos, a city previously governed by BE, voted CHEGA??

According to the official results page.

https://www.legislativas2024.mai.gov.pt/resultados/territorio-nacional?local=LOCAL-141500

Yes, I know. I'm just shocked by the result.


Well, going to bed now. The next few days, weeks and months will not be quiet in Portugal. That's a certainty.

[VPH]

Wait, Salvaterra de Magos, a city previously governed by BE, voted CHEGA??

According to the official results page.

https://www.legislativas2024.mai.gov.pt/resultados/territorio-nacional?local=LOCAL-141500

Yes, I know. I'm just shocked by the result.


Well, going to bed now. The next few days, weeks and months will not be quiet in Portugal. That's a certainty.

Has it received a large influx of migrants working in agriculture like much of the Ribatejo has? That’s led to some backlash in the region, at least among people I know.

Also I find interesting albeit not wholly shocking that CHEGA did so well in the Algarve. It’s always been more anti-establishment curious, with minor populist parties doing better than their national averages historically. Here in the US, touristy areas tend to be moving leftward so it’s an intriguing contrast.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Montenegro maintains his word regarding CHEGA, "No is no".

So grand coalition? Or CHEGA S+C ? or is that ruled out as well

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

how much of ADN's overperformance was genuine support and how much was confusion? will we know?

[Red Velvet]

Montenegro maintains his word regarding CHEGA, "No is no".

Kinda doubt this lasts tbh, but it would be a sign of political maturity if PSD brings PS to form a “centrist” common-ground base like it happens in Germany.

Because without Chega, it’s the only path they have if they want to hold power. Though it would inevitably anger some conservatives that vote PSD and could mayyybe consolidate Chega as the new main Right-wing party in Portugal for the future.

The thing is, I think there’s probably a “ceiling” of around 25%-30% that these far-right parties can actually reach even at their highest. AfD in Germany was very close to reaching 25% in polls at one point before dropping to 19% again.

In France Marine Le Pen polls around 35% for president 1st round but in legislative elections her party is still a bit below 30%. At least for now, there seems to be a limit for these parties. But that could change with time, since European politics clearly stagnated and these are the main parties representing any “change” im face of old establishment center-right and center-left parties.

Migration is obviously a main factor but I don’t really feel it’s the only thing creating the need for change at all, otherwise these trends would be very restricted to European context and they are not.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, depressing result. RIP the Portuguese exception of not having a major far-right party, but we knew that was going to happen. Now let's see how the Portuguese political establishment handles it.

All considered, PS didn't actually do so bad. Do we think it's enough for PNS to stick on as leader?

[Battista Minola 1616]

Also I find interesting albeit not wholly shocking that CHEGA did so well in the Algarve. It’s always been more anti-establishment curious, with minor populist parties doing better than their national averages historically. Here in the US, touristy areas tend to be moving leftward so it’s an intriguing contrast.

Algarve also has a lot of beach resort tourism, a lot of immigrants, and is in the traditionally poorer and more left-wing part of the country... I think this film is a remake of the French version and the Spanish sequel.

[Mike88]

Also I find interesting albeit not wholly shocking that CHEGA did so well in the Algarve. It’s always been more anti-establishment curious, with minor populist parties doing better than their national averages historically. Here in the US, touristy areas tend to be moving leftward so it’s an intriguing contrast.

Algarve also has a lot of beach resort tourism, a lot of immigrants, and is in the traditionally poorer and more left-wing part of the country... I think this film is a remake of the French version and the Spanish sequel.

Besides that, Algarve has a big deterioration of infrastructures and public services. The trains and public transportation are a mess, the water supply has deep problems, the roads are very dangerous, the national road 125 is known as one of the most accident prone in the country and promises of improvements are always delayed, delayed and delayed, and then you have the NHS, with Faro Hospital being constantly in the news for the wrong reasons. The construction of new Algarve hospital is a 22-year old project that, until now, is still on paper.

Montenegro maintains his word regarding CHEGA, "No is no".

So grand coalition? Or CHEGA S+C ? or is that ruled out as well

Montenegro maintains his word regarding CHEGA, "No is no".

Kinda doubt this lasts tbh, but it would be a sign of political maturity if PSD brings PS to form a “centrist” common-ground base like it happens in Germany.

No path for a "Grand coalition" or as we called it here "Central Bloc". The PS totally rejects the idea, as they are scare to death of giving the official opposition to CHEGA and having the same fate as the French PS or German SPD. Plus, PNS is now going to shape the PS into his image, and close the book of Costism. If the overseas voting results, confirm last night's results, we could have an AD minority, probably similar to the Swedish current government. Montenegro would probably have to give some "candy" to Ventura, and he can give him things like the police force subsidies, for example. But, as of now, this is only speculation. Who knows what lies ahead.

Well, depressing result. RIP the Portuguese exception of not having a major far-right party, but we knew that was going to happen. Now let's see how the Portuguese political establishment handles it.

All considered, PS didn't actually do so bad. Do we think it's enough for PNS to stick on as leader?

Yep, he will continue as leader, and like I wrote above, he now has full power to shape the PS. It's basically the end of the current PS image, started in the mid-90's by Guterres, third-way, moderate, similar to new labour.

how much of ADN's overperformance was genuine support and how much was confusion? will we know?

We don't know, but a big majority of those votes are voter confusion with names. We will never know for certain how much, just like the "Nader who wanted to vote Gore voters" in 2000.

[Flyersfan232]

Well, depressing result. RIP the Portuguese exception of not having a major far-right party, but we knew that was going to happen. Now let's see how the Portuguese political establishment handles it.

All considered, PS didn't actually do so bad. Do we think it's enough for PNS to stick on as leader?

the Portuguese exception died in 2022

[VPH]

CHEGA did best in places where more people identify as non-Catholic Christians. Almost to a T, this shows up. Higher percentages of Other Christians line up with CHEGA strongholds across the Algarve, in Valença, Benavente, Montijo, Mourão, Moura. This is likely Evangelicals, many of whom are (Brazilian mainly) immigrants.

[Red Velvet]

CHEGA did best in places where more people identify as non-Catholic Christians. Almost to a T, this shows up. Higher percentages of Other Christians line up with CHEGA strongholds across the Algarve, in Valença, Benavente, Montijo, Mourão, Moura. This is likely Evangelicals, many of whom are (Brazilian mainly) immigrants.

I can confirm that CHEGA has a quite strong right-wing Brazilian immigrant base, same people who in Brazil support Bolsonaro. And as it happens in Brazil, Evangelicals tend to be more right-wing leaning.

That is, despite CHEGA discourse being extremely Anti-Brazilian quite openly. Thing is, these people don’t associate themselves per say as the target of the discourse because as they’re living in Portugal, they’re Portuguese and don’t see themselves as the “others”. Especially when much of the immigrants hysteria in Europe is targeted at Muslims.

I’ve seen quite some CHEGA supporters who clearly look down on Brazilians stimulating this mindset to dupe these people, being friendly on the surface while still holding some level of prejudice.

CHEGA leader also constantly opposes Brazilian president in a futile way that’s purely to electorally capitalize on that Brazilian Bolsonarist base, creating an association through the alignment with Bolsonaro.