🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[Mike88]

Everything is now counted.

Brazil, Outside of Europe (55,774 ballots)

24.6% CHEGA
20.5% PSD/CDS/PPM
15.3% PS
  3.1% PAN
  2.5% ND
  2.3% BE
  2.0% IL
  1.2% ADN
  0.8% CDU
  0.6% Livre
  1.3% Others
25.7% Blank/Invalid

21.8% Turnout

Outside of Europe constituency (98,866 ballots)

22.9% PSD/CDS/PPM, 1 seat
18.3% CHEGA, 1 (+1)
14.6% PS, 0 (-1)
  2.4% PAN, 0 (nc)
  1.9% IL, 0 (nc)
  1.9% BE, 0 (nc)
  1.5% ND, 0 (nc)
  1.1% ADN, 0 (nc)
  0.8% CDU, 0 (nc)
  0.7% Livre, 0 (nc)
  1.1% Others, 0 (nc)
32.9% Blank/Invalid

16.2% Turnout

[Mike88]

Final results of the 10 March legislative elections:

28.8% PSD/CDS/PPM (-1.9), 80 seats (+3)
28.0% PS (-13.4), 78 (-42)
18.1% CHEGA (+10.9), 50 (+38)
  4.9% IL (nc), 8 (nc)
  4.4% BE (nc), 5 (nc)
  3.2% CDU (-1.1), 4 (-2)
  3.2% Livre (+1.9), 4 (+3)
  1.9% PAN (+0.3), 1 (nc)
  1.6% ADN (+1.4), 0 (nc)
  0.4% RIR (nc), 0 (nc)
  0.3% ND (new), 0 (new)
  0.2% PCTP/MRPP (nc), 0 (nc)
  0.2% Volt (+0.1), 0 (nc)
  0.1% E (nc), 0 (nc)
  0.1% A21 (-0.1), 0 (nc)
  0.0% PTP (-0.1), 0 (nc)
  0.0% NC (-0.1), 0 (nc)
  0.0% PPM (nc), 0 (nc)
  4.3% Blank/Invalid (+1.7)

59.8% Turnout (+8.4)

The PSD/CDS/PPM sole list, without Madeira, surpasses the PS by 1,552 votes. With Madeira added, the PSD/CDS/PPM coalition has a 54,544 vote lead.

[Mike88]

With the national scene now more on hold, Madeira is back on the news:

PSD-Madeira party members, around 4,300, will choose between the incumbent leader, Miguel Albuquerque, and his challenger, Manuel António Correia, a former regional government member under Jardim. This contest is a re-match of 2014, when Albuquerque defeated Correia by a 64-36% margin.

The campaign was very tense. Albuquerque was accused of limiting the number of members registered to vote, there are around 12,000 party members but only 4,300 are able to cast a ballot, something he denies, and Correia accuses Albuquerque of not having any conditions or credibility to lead the party into an imminent snap regional election this year. Polls open at 5pm and close at 8:30pm.

[Mike88]

Newly elected CHEGA MP from the overseas constituency of Europe was once an illegal immigrant in France for years:

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1770813163367215408

Chega MP elected by the Europe constituency was an illegal immigrant in France

The newly elected CHEGA MP from the Europe constituency is being news because it was discovered he was once, for years, an illegal immigrant in France and was even expelled from France twice. José Dias Fernandes immigrated to France in the early 70's and for years was an illegal immigrant being then expelled and forced to return to Portugal, but then tried twice to re-enter France, always illegaly. His last try was in 1978 and his situation was only legalized years later, during the 1980's. This report is raising eyebrows because it seems to clash with CHEGA's policies of fighting illegal immigration, even proposing the crime of illegal residence to limit immigration.

[Red Velvet]

Everything is now counted.

Brazil, Outside of Europe (55,774 ballots)

24.6% CHEGA
20.5% PSD/CDS/PPM
15.3% PS
  3.1% PAN
  2.5% ND
  2.3% BE
  2.0% IL
  1.2% ADN
  0.8% CDU
  0.6% Livre
  1.3% Others
25.7% Blank/Invalid

21.8% Turnout

Outside of Europe constituency (98,866 ballots)

22.9% PSD/CDS/PPM, 1 seat
18.3% CHEGA, 1 (+1)
14.6% PS, 0 (-1)
  2.4% PAN, 0 (nc)
  1.9% IL, 0 (nc)
  1.9% BE, 0 (nc)
  1.5% ND, 0 (nc)
  1.1% ADN, 0 (nc)
  0.8% CDU, 0 (nc)
  0.7% Livre, 0 (nc)
  1.1% Others, 0 (nc)
32.9% Blank/Invalid

16.2% Turnout

Too bad more people don’t vote strategically, otherwise PS would get that CHEGA seat. What’s the use of voting PAN or BE in a year like this?

Btw, since Brazil is more than half of that “Outside Europe” constituency, I really doubt CHEGA will lose representation in future years. Even when the election is more favorable to the left and PS gets a seat, the other one that usually goes to PSD will be cannibalized by Chega supporters instead considering how the Right in Brazil migrated from PSDB (Brazilian PSD) to Bolsonarism (which correlates better with Chega).

How was the foreign vote in Europe?

[Mike88]

Too bad more people don’t vote strategically, otherwise PS would get that CHEGA seat. What’s the use of voting PAN or BE in a year like this?

Btw, since Brazil is more than half of that “Outside Europe” constituency, I really doubt CHEGA will lose representation in future years. Even when the election is more favorable to the left and PS gets a seat, the other one that usually goes to PSD will be cannibalized by Chega supporters instead considering how the Right in Brazil migrated from PSDB (Brazilian PSD) to Bolsonarism (which correlates better with Chega).

How was the foreign vote in Europe?

The best tactical voting in constituencies like Outside of Europe, who always voted on the right in every single election in democracy, is to vote on the strongest challenger to the other party, and in this case that would be AD. With CHEGA very strong, a vote for AD would give them more chances to win the second seat and prevent CHEGA from winning one.

You cannot correlate what happened in Brazil to the the Portuguese situation. Yes, there is the danger of CHEGA growing more, but that will be at the expense of the two major parties, not one in particular. The voter demographics shows a deep "rift" between old and young, with younger voters rejecting the left, while elderly voters siding with the left, mainly the PS. No one knows if this is a long term structure or something due to the circunstances of the Socialists' long term in power. With the PSD now in power, we could see a shift in young support for the PS, or a stronger surge for CHEGA, with the PS still being a minor party in this demographic. The scenario is still uncertain, but because Portugal is a very fast aging country, and because older voters are not very open to "new parties", CHEGA may have an electoral ceiling. Plus, party affiliation is much stronger in Portugal than in Brazil, and that has an impact.

Europe voted for CHEGA:

Counting finished: Europe constituency (234,654 ballots)

18.3% CHEGA, 1 seat (+1)
16.2% PS, 1 (-1)
14.2% PSD/CDS/PPM, 0 (nc)
  2.7% BE, 0 (nc)
  2.4% IL, 0 (nc)
  2.2% PAN, 0 (nc)
  1.7% Livre, 0 (nc)
  1.0% CDU, 0 (nc)
  2.0% Others, 0 (nc)
39.1% Blank/Invalid

25.0% Turnout

CHEGA's results were supported by strong showings in Switzerland and Luxembourg.

[Mike88]

Caretaker PM Costa and appointed PM Montenegro met today for coffee in Brussels:

Montenegro is in Brussels to attend an EPP party meeting, although he also had a meeting with Ursula von der Leyen, and Costa is also in the Belgium capital to attend the European summit.

[Mike88]

With the national scene now more on hold, Madeira is back on the news:

PSD-Madeira party members, around 4,300, will choose between the incumbent leader, Miguel Albuquerque, and his challenger, Manuel António Correia, a former regional government member under Jardim. This contest is a re-match of 2014, when Albuquerque defeated Correia by a 64-36% margin.

The campaign was very tense. Albuquerque was accused of limiting the number of members registered to vote, there are around 12,000 party members but only 4,300 are able to cast a ballot, something he denies, and Correia accuses Albuquerque of not having any conditions or credibility to lead the party into an imminent snap regional election this year. Polls open at 5pm and close at 8:30pm.

With no surprise, Albuquerque was reelected, although the margin was much closer than expected:

54.8% Miguel Albuquerque (2,246 votes)
45.2% Manuel António Correia (1,854)

Turnout stood at around 94%. Rural areas were crucial for Albuquerque's win, while the more urban areas of Funchal and Câmara de Lobos voted for Correia. Albuquerque has already declared victory saying the party is mobilized and strong, while Correia has conceded but said that the election wasn't "fair" because of all the limitations imposed by the party's leadership.

Albuquerque will now lead the PSD-Madeira into an almost inevitable snap regional election. This regional election will probably be another mess.

The ballot results also suggest that if the more than 12,000 PSD-Madeira members were all registered to vote, maybe the result would be the other way around.

[Mike88]

Most recent poll on the possible Madeira snap regional election:

Intercampus poll for Jornal da Madeira:

Vote share %: (after 25.4% of undecideds are distributed)

39.7% PSD, 21 seats (+1)
28.3% PS, 14 (+3)
  9.5% JPP, 5 (nc)
  7.4% CHEGA, 3 (-1)
  6.0% IL, 3 (+2)
  3.3% CDU, 1 (nc)
  1.3% PAN, 0 (-1)
  1.1% CDS, 0 (-3)
  3.4% Others/Invalid, 0 (-1)

Q: In your opinion, and taking into account the ongoing political crisis in the region of Madeira, what would be the best solution?

62.6% New elections as soon as possible
28.4% New government with the current Parliament
  9.0% Undecided

Poll conducted between 26 February and 3 March 2024. Polled 401 voters in Madeira islands. MoE of 4.90%.

The poll was conducted before the 10 March elections, in which the PSD coalition won 35% of the votes and the PS polled bellow 20%, just slightly ahead of CHEGA. These bad results for the Socialists are creating a "split" inside the party with some party members now forming a "shadow leadership" because they don't agree with the decisions and leadership of current party leader Paulo Cafôfo.

[Mike88]

Final and certified results of the 10th March general election:



Image link.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Honestly not too bad a result for the PS in the grand scheme of things, considering they've been in power for a decade and have been hit by a pretty ridiculous amount of corruption scandals and the economic situation has been less than ideal for a while. Hopefully they get to be safely in the opposition for the next 4 years, and thus have the opportunity to rebuild and distance themselves from Costa's mistakes.

[Mike88]

Honestly not too bad a result for the PS in the grand scheme of things, considering they've been in power for a decade and have been hit by a pretty ridiculous amount of corruption scandals and the economic situation has been less than ideal for a while. Hopefully they get to be safely in the opposition for the next 4 years, and thus have the opportunity to rebuild and distance themselves from Costa's mistakes.

The PS result was basically what polls were predicting, around 28%, while AD was overpolled considerably, maybe because of an underestimation of CHEGA and/or the whole "ADN fiasco". However, losing 13% of the votes and more than 40 seats, in just two years, is not usual.

To be honest, if Montenegro lasts until Christmas, I will be surprised. The current PS and CHEGA positions are so confusing and contradictory, that I don't know how can he govern. There is even talk that this will be a "government by decree" in order to bypass Parliament. PNS will have tough time "rebuilding" the party, especially if Costa hangs around in Portugal and not in Brussels in an EU top job. The EP elections will be crucial for the PS leadership.

[Mike88]

Most voted party and elected MPs by district:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1771813482565980209

Closest districts:

- Porto: AD lead of 1,032 votes (0.10%) over PS, out of 1,114,945 votes cast;
- Santarém: PS lead of 1,429 votes (0.58%) over AD, out of 251,061 votes cast;
- Lisbon: PS lead of 8,964 votes (0.69%) over AD, out of 1,319,561 votes cast;
- Faro: CH lead of 4,225 votes (1.85%) over PS, out of 235,351 votes cast;
- Coimbra: PS lead of 5,080 votes (2.16%) over AD, out of 242,140 votes cast;
- Guarda: AD lead of 1,919 votes (2.32%) over PS, out of 85,034 votes cast;

Biggest margin:

- Madeira: AD lead of 23,264 votes (15.90%) over PS, out of 149,808 votes cast;

Also, curious data: the two main "bellwether" areas of the country, Braga district and Lisbon city, once again voted alongside the national winner.

[Mike88]

Divisions in the PS: Party leadership "upset" with the 2023 budget surplus, lamenting that it could have been used to ease ongoing social tensions.

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1771707526679024011

Socialists unhappy with Medina’s “brilliant” which leaves the State coffers with an “excess” surplus

The National Statistics Institute (INE) is set to publish the final numbers of the 2023 budget results on Monday morning, but the expectation is that the numbers will be very good, around a 1.5% surplus in GDP. Finance minister Fernando Medina asked the new AD government to continue the path of balance budgets, and that the budget numbers are quite capable of handling increase spending in security forces, teachers, NHS, etc, without proposing a supplementary budget. However, these numbers, and Medina words, are embarrasing the party leadership and it collides with PNS' strategy of "cornering" the AD with a new budget and that the big surplus could have been use to ease social tensions and avoid a bad election result for the PS.

Also this Monday, outgoing PM Costa will hold his last cabinet meeting marking the end of his 9 years in power. By invitation from Costa, President Marcelo will preside over the cabinet meeting.

[Mike88]

Also this Monday, outgoing PM Costa will hold his last cabinet meeting marking the end of his 9 years in power. By invitation from Costa, President Marcelo will preside over the cabinet meeting.

Costa's final cabinet meeting: PM Costa thanks Marcelo for 8 years of "cooperation and institutional solidarity", while President Marcelo hopes to find Costa in the "crossroads of service to Portugal":

This morning, President Marcelo presided, by invitation from outgoing PM Costa, the last cabinet meeting of Costa's governments. The meeting itself made an update on the execution of Recovery and Resilience Program, and approved 3 bills, including a plan combating homelessness, but that will only be signed by the President after the new government is sworn in on April 2nd. In a press conference after the meeting, PM Costa thanked President Marcelo for all the support he gave him under the 8 years they worked together, adding that they may not always have been on the same page, but there was always "cooperation and institutional solidarity". In his part, President Marcelo thanked Costa and hoped that this gesture will become a new norm in Portuguese democracy. Marcelo said that this is probably not a "goodbye" to Costa as he hopes to see him in other capacities representing Portugal. The last cabinet meeting was also dominated by the 2023 budget surplus numbers: +1.2%, worth 3,2 billion euros, the best number in democracy.

After the cabinet meeting, President Marcelo informed that audiences to resolve the ongoing crisis in Madeira will start Wednesday, with a Council of State meeting later in the afternoon. A snap regional election looks imminent.

[Mike88]

The new Parliament is sworn in today:

https://twitter.com/cnnportugal/status/1772589424120856588

The new Parliament takes office this Tuesday and brings several changes.

The 230 newly elected MPs were sworn in this morning an will, during the afternoon, elect the new Speaker and the members of the Parliamentary leadership. PSD and CHEGA have reached a "pact" in which PSD accepts the names of CHEGA for deputy Speaker and secretaries in exchange for CHEGA's vote in José Pedro Aguiar Branco, former Defense minister and PSD MP from Viana do Castelo, as the new Speaker. Ventura created a bit of a "fuss" because he came out saying that PSD and CHEGA reached a "deal", something the PSD rejected saying there was just an exchange in support of names.

Also, after days of rumours and conflicting stories, PSD and IL announced that the two parties will not sign any government support deal nor will IL be part of the government. Despite differences, both parties claim to be open to dialogue during the legislature.

[Mike88]

The secret ballot to elect the new Speaker of Parliament has begun.

[Mike88]

José Pedro Aguiar Branco failed to be elected Speaker.

  89 In favour
134 Blank
    7 Invalid

CHEGA clearly broke the "understanding" with the PSD regarding the names of the Parliamentary leadership.

[Mike88]

A new vote is expected in the next hour. The PS is in an emergency meeting and Luís Montenegro was seen talking with Pedro Nuno Santos after the vote. The PS accused the PSD of not talking with them before the vote.

Pundits argue that the PSD made a "capital mistake" in reaching out to CHEGA and that this proves that CHEGA is completely unreliable and is not an option for anything. Talk that CHEGA's deputy speaker candidate is now also in danger of not being voted favourably.

The trend is now clear, this Parliament will not last one full year.

[Mike88]

Ventura is just giving, right now, a trainwreck press conference. Jesus Christ!

Ventura: No one talked to us.

Reporter: But you just said you talked with the AD yesterday.

Ahahahaha

[Farmlands]

Surprise, surprise. Parties like Chega aren't interested in competent governing or upholding agreements. Otherwise, they can't keep their "government bad" rhetoric up.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

will this debacle hurt CHEGA in any second election?

[Mike88]

Surprise, surprise. Parties like Chega aren't interested in competent governing or upholding agreements. Otherwise, they can't keep their "government bad" rhetoric up.

Spot on. But here the PSD made a gross mistake in "believing" in CHEGA. Not sure if this was planned or not, probably not as this all looks quite amateur.

Also, the PSD has withdrew Aguiar-Branco as candidate. The party's caucus leader accuses the PS and CHEGA of a negative coalition and asks if the PS and CHEGA want to propose a "joint candidate".

will this debacle hurt CHEGA in any second election?

Who knows at this point. But, the picture is just messy, messy and messy.

[Mike88]

Party caucus leaders will now decide if a new vote will be held today or postpone it for tomorrow.

[Mike88]

New vote today at 9pm. Candidacies have to be presented until 8pm, in just more than one hour.