🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[Mike88]

First official results from overseas are being reported:

Germany, Europe constituency (20,236 ballots)

20.1% PS
18.1% PSD/CDS/PPM
13.0% CHEGA
  4.0% BE
  3.1% IL
  3.1% Livre
  2.6% PAN
  1.4% CDU
  1.9% Others
32.8% Blank/Invalid

26.7% Turnout

[Mike88]

Spain, Europe constituency (9,391 ballots)

24.7% PSD/CDS/PPM
16.9% PS
  9.4% CHEGA
  5.0% IL
  4.8% BE
  2.8% PAN
  2.5% Livre
  1.7% CDU
  2.1% Others
30.2% Blank/Invalid

20.7% Turnout

Belgium, Europe constituency (5,381 ballots)

17.9% PS
17.4% CHEGA
16.7% PSD/CDS/PPM
  5.2% BE
  4.8% Livre
  4.7% IL
  3.1% PAN
  1.7% CDU
  2.5% Others
26.1% Blank/Invalid

31.1% Turnout

[Mike88]

With 29% counted, the number of invalid ballots stands at 37.5%, 23,934. (!!!)

Also, as of now, no evidence of the "AD-ADN phenomenon" in the overseas ballots. In Europe, ADN stands, so far, at just 0.39%.

[Mike88]

USA, Outside of Europe constituency (10,910 ballots)

20.1% PSD/CDS/PPM
11.2% CHEGA
10.9% PS
  1.4% IL
  1.3% BE
  1.0% Livre
  1.0% PAN
  0.5% CDU
  1.2% Others
51.4% Blank/Invalid (!!)

16.7% Turnout

[Mike88]

Luxembourg, Europe constituency (13,649 ballots)

19.6% CHEGA
14.3% PSD/CDS/PPM
13.0% PS
  2.0% IL
  1.7% BE
  1.7% PAN
  1.0% Livre
  0.6% CDU
  1.2% Others
44.9% Blank/Invalid

37.0% Turnout

[Mike88]

France, Europe constituency (84,881 ballots)

18.6% PS
16.7% CHEGA
12.6% PSD/CDS/PPM
  2.0% PAN
  1.6% BE
  0.8% CDU
  0.7% IL
  0.6% Livre
  2.3% Others
44.1% Blank/Invalid

22.2% Turnout

[Mike88]

With 29% counted, the number of invalid ballots stands at 37.5%, 23,934. (!!!)

54% counted and it now stands at 40.9%, 80,251 ballots.

[Mike88]

Europe constituency, 75% counted:

17.1% CHEGA
16.9% PS
14.2% PSD/CDS/PPM
  2.5% BE
  2.2% PAN
  1.9% IL
  1.4% Livre
  0.9% CDU
  2.1% Others
40.8% Blank/Invalid

24.3% Turnout

[Mike88]

Canada, Outside of Europe constituency (13,118 ballots)

19.6% PSD/CDS/PPM
14.4% PS
11.1% CHEGA
  1.0% BE
  0.9% PAN
  0.8% IL
  0.5% ADN
  0.5% CDU
  0.5% Livre
  0.4% Others
50.4% Blank/Invalid

24.2% Turnout

[Antonio the Sixth]

How in God's name do you get so many invalid ballots?? Is that a problem with the postage or some other formality involving the envelope, or did that many people actually spoil their ballots somehow?

[Mike88]

How in God's name do you get so many invalid ballots?? Is that a problem with the postage or some other formality involving the envelope, or did that many people actually spoil their ballots somehow?

Voters that didn't add an ID card copy with the envelope and/or voters who added an ID card copy but inserted it in the wrong envelope, thus invalid also.

This is something everybody predicted, but there is no agreement between parties on how to resolve it. Also, because in Portugal there's the tradition of not separating the valid from the invalid votes, this distorces a bit the share of the votes of the parties.

[Mike88]

Audience between Luís Montenegro and President Marcelo just ended: Marcelo to ask Montenegro to form a government after the last vote from overseas voters is counted.

https://twitter.com/Renascenca/status/1770523363934384453

Montenegro told Marcelo that he is available to lead Government

The audience between President Marcelo and Luís Montenegro, AD leader, just ended with Montenegro saying he told Marcelo he's "available to lead a government" and that the official request to form a new government will be made after the overseas votes are all counted. In a short statement to reporters, Montenegro said he will lead a minority government with the parties within AD, as it was the democratic will of voters, he added. Regarding the inclusion of the Liberals in cabinet, Montenegro didn't respond.

A new audience with Marcelo could be held during the evening.

[Mike88]

UK, Europe constituency (37,253 ballots)

15.2% PS
12.6% PSD/CDS/PPM
10.1% CHEGA
  3.7% BE
  3.0% IL
  2.8% PAN
  2.3% Livre
  1.1% CDU
  2.7% Others
46.5% Blank/Invalid

21.1% Turnout

[Mike88]

Switzerland, Europe constituency (49,746 ballots)

32.6% CHEGA
12.9% PSD/CDS/PPM
12.0% PS
  2.2% IL
  2.1% BE
  1.4% PAN
  0.9% Livre
  0.9% CDU
  1.1% Others
33.9% Blank/Invalid

33.6% Turnout

[DL]

What would make someone Portuguese and living in Switzerland vote for CHEGA?

[Mike88]

What would make someone Portuguese and living in Switzerland vote for CHEGA?

Local factors and/or more clever campaigning from CHEGA, but some pundits are also suggesting that recent tax changes that penalized people who are from emigrant communities, Portuguese included, may have "infuriated" people particularly in Switzerland. But, this is just a guess right now. I also remember a report that the government wanted to "erase" Portuguese emigrants from NHS supports, not sure if they backed down on this policy or not, but everything combined, the picture wasn't great for the PS in these communities.

[Mike88]

Counting finished: Europe constituency (234,654 ballots)

18.3% CHEGA, 1 seat (+1)
16.2% PS, 1 (-1)
14.2% PSD/CDS/PPM, 0 (nc)
  2.7% BE, 0 (nc)
  2.4% IL, 0 (nc)
  2.2% PAN, 0 (nc)
  1.7% Livre, 0 (nc)
  1.0% CDU, 0 (nc)
  2.0% Others, 0 (nc)
39.1% Blank/Invalid

25.0% Turnout

[Mike88]

Only country left is Brazil. Around 11,000 ballots arrived late in the afternoon and are now being counted.

[Mike88]

Just an info for VPH, New Right (ND) only got... 23 votes in the USA. However, 51% of the ballots were invalidated.

[Mike88]

China, Outside of Europe constituency (6,157 ballots)

37.5% PSD/CDS/PPM
12.1% PS
  5.4% CHEGA
  2.5% PAN
  1.8% IL
  1.4% BE
  1.3% CDU
  1.0% Livre
  3.5% Others
33.5% Blank/Invalid

12.6% Turnout

[Mike88]

Luís Montenegro is now on his way back to the Presidential Palace, in order to be officially asked to form a Government.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looks like PSD and Chega will grab the last two seats, unless the remaining Brazil votes somehow allow PS to gain 400 votes over Chega (unlikely given how well Chega did in the other Brazil consulate).

[Mike88]

Looks like PSD and Chega will grab the last two seats, unless the remaining Brazil votes somehow allow PS to gain 400 votes over Chega (unlikely given how well Chega did in the other Brazil consulate).

The PS has already conceded defeat in that seat. Augusto Santos Silva, the incumbent Speaker, was the candidate for that seat and he, in a TV interview, labeled it as "personal and political defeat":

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1770583934616608889

Augusto Santos Silva admits defeat in the elections after failing to be elected by the constituency outside Europe: “It is a political and personal defeat”

[Mike88]

Luís Montenegro is now on his way back to the Presidential Palace, in order to be officially asked to form a Government.

Official: Luís Montenegro nominated as Prime Minister by the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa.

At 21 minutes past midnight. Only Marcelo

[Mike88]

Luís Montenegro is now on his way back to the Presidential Palace, in order to be officially asked to form a Government.

Official: Luís Montenegro nominated as Prime Minister by the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa.

At 21 minutes past midnight. Only Marcelo

Montenegro told reporters that he will inform the President of the composition of the next cabinet on 28 March, and that the 24th Constitutional Government will be sworn in on 2 April.