🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[Mike88]

3 parishes yet to count, 1 in Lisbon city, 1 in Mafra, 1 in Sintra.

[oldtimer]

The 6 million vote mark has been surpassed.

And the PS is technically ahead by 75 votes out of 6068035.

Shows that all this is just semantics.

[VPH]

Did a bunch of lower-education, rural PS voters really go straight to CHEGA? Results in regions like Castelo Branco suggest it might have happened. Or could it be a PS-AD swing and a corresponding AD-CHEGA swing?

Either way, it looks like Portugal's getting hit with the global realignment.

[Flyersfan232]

The 6 million vote mark has been surpassed.

And the PS is technically ahead by 75 votes out of 6068035.

Shows that all this is just semantics.

remember one of the islands have there ad counted separately

[oldtimer]

The 6 million vote mark has been surpassed.

And the PS is technically ahead by 75 votes out of 6068035.

Shows that all this is just semantics.

remember one of the islands have there ad counted separately

It just doesn't matter.

Brag that they won the popular vote by a handfull, when they are both doing piss poor ?

[Mello]

The results in Évora and Beja, with four right-of-center MPs, two socialists, and zero communists, highlight the disruptive impact of CH. Just four and a half years ago, these districts elected four socialists and two communists. In 1980, when AD won, the breakdown was 6 PCP, 2 PS, and 2 AD. Adding Portalegre to the equation results in +1 CH and +1 PS.

Chega also secured victories in three municipalities out of Algarve: Elvas (interestingly, one of the municipalities that PRD won in 1985), Salvaterra de Magos (another PRD victory, and notably the only place where BE has ever elected a mayor, also a place where PCD used to get ~30% in national elections), and Benavente - a bona fide communist stronghold until the '90s which continues to have a PCP mayor to this day.

Reminiscent of what happened, for instance, in France, of course; but also of what occurred in 1985 with PRD - the Eanes-inspired party that, despite positioning itself in the center to center-left, wasn't too dissimilar from Chega - probably including in the type of voter.

[Estrella]

Did a bunch of lower-education, rural PS voters really go straight to CHEGA? Results in regions like Castelo Branco suggest it might have happened. Or could it be a PS-AD swing and a corresponding AD-CHEGA swing?

Either way, it looks like Portugal's getting hit with the global realignment.

Just a guess, but in addition to this probably also middle-aged — the sort of people who would’ve been PS for life if they were a few years older and had been politically aware around the time of the Revolution and its aftermath.

[DavidB.]

Looks like Chega's voting pattern is typical for European nationalist right-wing parties in that they do best in peripheral areas with working-class voters, although fairly well distributed over the entire country and over most areas - and is in that regard different from the pattern of Spanish Vox, which follows the Latin American pattern of wealthier = more right-wing more closely.

[Oryxslayer]

Did a bunch of lower-education, rural PS voters really go straight to CHEGA? Results in regions like Castelo Branco suggest it might have happened. Or could it be a PS-AD swing and a corresponding AD-CHEGA swing?

Either way, it looks like Portugal's getting hit with the global realignment.

Just a guess, but in addition to this probably also middle-aged — the sort of people who would’ve been PS for life if they were a few years older and had been politically aware around the time of the Revolution and its aftermath.

It's been said a million times that the PS are the kings of the "social democratic pensioner" coalition, in part cause of this revolutionary experience. That coalition can't last forever, and it shouldn't be a surprise the people replacing them behave more "normal" for their demographics.

[Mike88]

The party leaders are now starting to speak.

[Mike88]

Ventura now trashing pundits and polls. Predictable.

[DavidB.]

Looks like ADN will surpass the symbolic number of 100,000 votes.

[Flyersfan232]

Ventura now trashing pundits and polls. Predictable.

he not wrong

[Mello]

I'd like to think ADN result was due to evangelicals mobilizing to vote - at least it'd be a positive vote and an intriguing new development - but looking at how strongly their voting percentage map tracks with AD's shows this was a repeat of the good old PCP/APU/CDU -> PCTP/MRPP switcheroo.




Understandable in the 80s, with double digits illiteracy rates, and ~1 million adults who couldn't write or read, but a bit bizarre in 2024.

[Mike88]

Pedro Nuno Santos concedes defeat and congratulates Luís Montenegro. He says the PS will now go the Opposition. He said that CHEGA's 18% cannot be ignored and that they are not fascists or radicals, noting that they're angry and the PS will try to regain their trust. He added that he will continue as PS leader.

[Mike88]

I'd like to think ADN result was due to evangelicals mobilizing to vote - at least it'd be a positive vote and an intriguing new development - but looking at how strongly their voting percentage map tracks with AD's shows this was a repeat of the good old PCP/APU/CDU -> PCTP/MRPP switcheroo.

According to some reports, their lists have tons of evangelical priests and seem close to Bolsonaro. Some pundits point that maybe, just maybe, the growing Brazilian community in Portugal could have prop up ADN. But, to be honest, I have little doubt that the big a majority were AD voters that were confused and voted ADN. Portugal's "Florida 2000 Gore-Nader" moment.

[Logical]

It's an opportunity for Portuguese members of this forum.
Establish a new party called XEGA with a similar logo to CHEGA. All you have to do register a list in every district. You'll win thousands of votes by accident and qualify for public funding without having to campaign.

[Mike88]

Inês Sousa Real (PAN) criticizes President Marcelo for creating confusion and more confusion.

[Mike88]

Rui Rocha (IL) says that the Liberals will be a solution for stability, and the other have to make a position, a jibe towards CHEGA.

[Mike88]

Montenegro (AD) is about to speak.

[Red Velvet]

Did a bunch of lower-education, rural PS voters really go straight to CHEGA? Results in regions like Castelo Branco suggest it might have happened. Or could it be a PS-AD swing and a corresponding AD-CHEGA swing?

Either way, it looks like Portugal's getting hit with the global realignment.

Probably a combination of both in different levels. Rarely it’s just “one thing”, especially in a year that was bound to be more favorable to the right.

I have no doubts that some centrists moved PS —> PSD and conservatives moved PSD —> Chega with that latter party finally breaking into the mainstream.

At same time, results in Faro suggest that some PS —> Chega movement happened as well simultaneously. It does line up with global trends as well in the moment the far-right party breaks in with the mainstream, capturing some populist voters.

CDU becoming irrelevant with the rise of Chega also back this up. Used to have a more significant vote share but people are dropping “populist left” once “populist right” emerges.

Very expected results actually. AD not having the giant victory everyone assumed is very in line with the center-right collapsing - even if slowly in Portugal’s case - in favor of the far-right.

PS almost won in an election favorable to the right simply because a lot of PSD appeal disappeared while Chega emerged, making the Right-wing vote divided. Chega is the only “winner” of this election.

[DavidB.]

Are parties listed in alphabetical order on the ballot, meaning ADN was on top of the ballot? In that case, the mistake would be slightly understandable and it would be a monumentally stupid mistake for PSD and allies to have that letter soup on the ballot instead of re-registering as AD.

[Mike88]

I'm almost falling a sleep watching Montenegro's speech...

[crals]

Are parties listed in alphabetical order on the ballot, meaning ADN was on top of the ballot? In that case, the mistake would be slightly understandable and it would be a monumentally stupid mistake for PSD and allies to have that letter soup on the ballot instead of re-registering as AD.

The ballot order is randomized.

[Red Velvet]

Looks like Chega's voting pattern is typical for European nationalist right-wing parties in that they do best in peripheral areas with working-class voters, although fairly well distributed over the entire country and over most areas - and is in that regard different from the pattern of Spanish Vox, which follows the Latin American pattern of wealthier = more right-wing more closely.

I’ve always said VOX is the right-wing party that resembles Latin American Right the MOST.

Spain always striked me as more politically similar to my country than Portugal, which was always quite alien.

I think Spain is undoubtedly the main point of political comparison with Latin America, including Brazil, because Portugal feels way more “European” in its politics. I even see freaking Italy closer to LatAm than Portugal.

That being said, Chega still clearly has more similarities to LatAm right than say, French or German current conservative movements. Kinda like somewhere in-between Spain and France.