Alberta election 2023

[Benjamin Frank]

Some people are saying the close ridings going NDP would have flipped the result but I don't see it. By my count in the absolute best case scenario the NDP could have flipped 7 more UCP led ridings in Calgary and the final result would be 44-43 UCP.

Some argue that Notley can be happy that she improved the NDP's results and that she could (if she's ludicrously lucky with the outstanding vote) leave the UCP with an unworkable government, but these results don't really leave great prospects for an NDP path to a government either. If you win every close riding in Calgary, sweep non-suburban Edmonton and sweep Lethbridge too you end up hoping that no lone wacky MP winds up sinking the government. Beyond those seats there aren't many great targets; south Calgary and the exurbs are solidly behind the UCP and the marginal seats of suburban Edmonton of the NDP are closer to flipping than the exurban "donut" seats.

and on the flipside, if instead luck maximally favoured the Tories they'd wind up with a final margin of 56-30, a result that could be fairly described as "crushing" even if it's not that bad by historic standards. One could just as easily argue that Smith was underestimated if she's set for a relatively safe after years of wear and tear plus internal conflict within the UCP. As things stand she's only getting around 2% of the popular vote less than Kenney did.

Notley seems to have fallen victim to Bernie 2020 syndrome; by falling in line on conventional Western center left issues she consolidated her urban support but totally vanished beyond the city limits. In 2015 she actually won several seats in rural Alberta. Without that "back door" the NDP are doomed to remain a perennial opposition party for the foreseeable future.

https://twitter.com/electionatlasCA/status/1663314634512777216?s=20
This is a good point. The election has more than once been described as "Americanized" as a response to the duoploistic parties squeezing out all others, and how the coalitions assembled break down in a familiar fashion according to demographic subsamples. The same may possibly be expected of advance voters.

The dwindling of other parties is a really weird feature of this election. Obviously the last one didn’t help given that the Alberta Party got over 9% with nothing to show, but it’s still weird for a Canadian election to be like this. I guess Saskatchewan is close, but two smaller parties broke 2% and collectively the small ones got just over 7%.

Before Smith won the right wing independents like WIP were polling well but as far as I can tell their support was basically a proxy for hardline anti-COVID restriction types in the rural ridings so Smith was good enough to bring them back into the fold. Then the centrist and center left independents (ALP and ABP especially) moved to Notley out of fear of Smith. To be fair the minor parties also ran bad campaigns, had no incumbents, and at least in the case of WIP exploded due to internal conflicts. Still, had the UCP nominated someone else the right-of-UCP vote probably would have been far higher.

One of the polling firms in their final poll asked who they would have voted for if Travis Toews had won the leadership. Although of course we don't know what the campaign would have been like (or Toews as Premier before that), according to the poll, both would have been true. The right wing fringe parties would have done better, but so would the UCP.

That poll showed 55-38% for the UCP led by Travis Toews over the NDP. So, if that was accurate, and their poll was more favorable to the NDP than the actual result (Janet Brown is eerie), the UCP would have won a landslide with Travis Toews even though the right wing fringe parties would have done better.

[Logical]

Just a few thousand votes in Calgary shifting would produce a "wrong winner" election.

[Benjamin Frank]

For the 41 ridings outside of the cities of Edmonton and Calgary, the UCP share of the vote increased in 18 ridings and declined in 23. The NDP share of the vote increased in 38 ridings and declined in 3.

The ridings with NDP vote share declines were Central Peace-Notley where Marg McCauig Boyd, the Energy Minister was running for reelection in 2019, Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo and Lesser Slave Lake.

In the 26 ridings in the city of Calgary, the NDP share of the vote increased in all of them. For the UCP their vote share increased in 2 (Calgary East and Calgary-Elbow where Alberta Party MLA Greg Clark ran for reelection in 2019) and decreased in 24.

In the 20 ridings in the city of Edmonton, the NDP share of the vote increased in all of them. For the UCP their vote share increased in 10 and decreased in 10.

So, overall, the NDP share of the vote increased in 84 of 87 ridings. The UCP share of the vote increased in 30.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

For the 41 ridings outside of the cities of Edmonton and Calgary, the UCP share of the vote increased in 18 ridings and declined in 23. The NDP share of the vote increased in 38 ridings and declined in 3.

The ridings with NDP vote share declines were Central Peace-Notley where Marg McCauig Boyd, the Energy Minister was running for reelection in 2019, Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo and Lesser Slave Lake.

I find it funny just how right wing the district is, despite being named after Notleys Father.

[Benjamin Frank]

For the 41 ridings outside of the cities of Edmonton and Calgary, the UCP share of the vote increased in 18 ridings and declined in 23. The NDP share of the vote increased in 38 ridings and declined in 3.

The ridings with NDP vote share declines were Central Peace-Notley where Marg McCauig Boyd, the Energy Minister was running for reelection in 2019, Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo and Lesser Slave Lake.

I find it funny just how right wing the district is, despite being named after Notleys Father.

While the NDP won Calgary-Klein. However, the UCP held Calgary-Lougheed.

[adma]

Rachel Notley shouldn't try to stay on like Dave Barrett did after losing an election as opposition leader. I don't think she can further increase NDP support in the regions where they fell just short of the needed breakthroughs. More likely Danielle Smith is pushed out as Premier than Notley wins the next election.

I'm of the "if she can't, who can?" POV.  Basically, given the nature of Alberta, *all* potential leaders are skunked in that light, however "right of the party" they might stand.

Notley's sort of "half Barrett, half Doer" in that light.

[Continential]

Atlas poster cinyc made a precinct map

https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/international/ab-23

[CumbrianLefty]

Well this is a bit of a bummer, not least because it *was* reasonably close.

[DistingFlyer]

As with 2019, the Tories notably outperformed their polls without their majority increasing by a corresponding amount:

Last time their lead was more than double the aggregate polling (and appreciably in excess of any single poll to boot) but their seat numbers ended up at 63 over the 56 or so the poll aggregates forecast.

This time their lead appreciably exceeded the aggregate polls (though a couple individual polls matched it) but their seat numbers finished within the range forecast by those same aggregates.

[Hatman 🍁]

Rachel Notley shouldn't try to stay on like Dave Barrett did after losing an election as opposition leader. I don't think she can further increase NDP support in the regions where they fell just short of the needed breakthroughs. More likely Danielle Smith is pushed out as Premier than Notley wins the next election.

I'm of the "if she can't, who can?" POV.  Basically, given the nature of Alberta, *all* potential leaders are skunked in that light, however "right of the party" they might stand.

Notley's sort of "half Barrett, half Doer" in that light.

Exactly. Until there is a known successor who can be as popular as Notley, the NDP would be foolish to turf her.

[Upper Canada Tory]

My hot take for the day is that UCP and NDP both suck and Alberta Party is based. Change my mind.

[Hatman 🍁]

My hot take for the day is that UCP and NDP both suck and Alberta Party is based. Change my mind.

0.7% of the electorate can't be wrong!

[Upper Canada Tory]

My hot take for the day is that UCP and NDP both suck and Alberta Party is based. Change my mind.

0.7% of the electorate can't be wrong!

Virgin UCP:
-Doesn't support climate action
-Supports coal mining
-Has a leader found guilty of having violated the conflict of interest act

Virgin NDP:
-Raised taxes during a recession
-Ran large deficits
-Pandered to Calgary with $1B worth of promises and still lost

Chad Alberta Party:
-Doesn't support raising taxes during a recession
-Supports both oil/gas and lithium mining
-Is against coal mining
-Supports provincial climate action
-Supports fiscal responsibility and balancing the budget

[Upper Canada Tory]

Rachel Notley shouldn't try to stay on like Dave Barrett did after losing an election as opposition leader. I don't think she can further increase NDP support in the regions where they fell just short of the needed breakthroughs. More likely Danielle Smith is pushed out as Premier than Notley wins the next election.

I'm of the "if she can't, who can?" POV.  Basically, given the nature of Alberta, *all* potential leaders are skunked in that light, however "right of the party" they might stand.

Notley's sort of "half Barrett, half Doer" in that light.

Exactly. Until there is a known successor who can be as popular as Notley, the NDP would be foolish to turf her.

IMO, once the UCP gets a more moderate leader, ANDP is sort of screwed. The UCP won this time even though Smith was a certified lunatic. How much better would the UCP do if, say, Travis Toews were the leader?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

My hot take for the day is that UCP and NDP both suck and Alberta Party is based. Change my mind.

0.7% of the electorate can't be wrong!

Virgin UCP:
-Doesn't support climate action
-Supports coal mining
-Has a leader found of having violated the conflict of interest act

Virgin NDP:
-Raised taxes during a recession
-Ran large deficits
-Pandered to Calgary with $1B worth of promises and still lost

Chad Alberta Party:
-Doesn't support raising taxes during a recession
-Supports both oil/gas and lithium mining
-Is against coal mining
-Supports provincial climate action
-Supports fiscal responsibility and balancing the budget

It's easy to be all things for all people when you don't have a cat's chance in hell of winning. I don't think the Alberta Party, or any party, could represent a significant number of Albertans without alienating as many or more, because of how polarized the province is.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Rachel Notley shouldn't try to stay on like Dave Barrett did after losing an election as opposition leader. I don't think she can further increase NDP support in the regions where they fell just short of the needed breakthroughs. More likely Danielle Smith is pushed out as Premier than Notley wins the next election.

I'm of the "if she can't, who can?" POV.  Basically, given the nature of Alberta, *all* potential leaders are skunked in that light, however "right of the party" they might stand.

Notley's sort of "half Barrett, half Doer" in that light.

Exactly. Until there is a known successor who can be as popular as Notley, the NDP would be foolish to turf her.

IMO, once the UCP gets a more moderate leader, ANDP is sort of screwed. The UCP won this time even though Smith was a certified lunatic. How much better would the UCP do if, say, Travis Toews were the leader?

Well it's hard to say because the certified lunatic objectively saw an improvement in UCP fortunes compared to her predecessor. Jason Kenney was more of a moderate on the surface, but he was extremely politically toxic, more so than Smith was this campaign. The NDP's strongest attacks on the UCP were related to things that happened under Kenney, and with Smith there was just enough plausible deniability that those didn't quite land as they would have against Kenney.

I do agree with you that Travis Toews would have been a better leader. He would have more Kenney-era baggage, and TBA-style movements might have gravitated more to the right-wing fringe parties with him as leader - but conversely, the NDP might not have been able to eat up the Alberta Party, Liberals and Greens quite as much, with Toews being a less "scary" candidate to those on the left. Overall, UCP would probably have done slightly better in Calgary and had a more efficient vote.

But I don't think this election would have been a UCP blowout without Smith. The Alberta NDP is one of the most well-organized and well-funded centre-left parties in Canada. Alberta really hasn't even trended that hard to the left, but it is trending that way and the ANDP has monopolized that trend, helped by the collapse of the Alberta Libs. So I wouldn't underestimate the ANDP and assume that they were only competitive because of Smith. As long as the ANDP sticks to an Alberta acceptable position (don't go too far to the left, and support oil and gas), they will remain competitive

[Hatman 🍁]

Rachel Notley shouldn't try to stay on like Dave Barrett did after losing an election as opposition leader. I don't think she can further increase NDP support in the regions where they fell just short of the needed breakthroughs. More likely Danielle Smith is pushed out as Premier than Notley wins the next election.

I'm of the "if she can't, who can?" POV.  Basically, given the nature of Alberta, *all* potential leaders are skunked in that light, however "right of the party" they might stand.

Notley's sort of "half Barrett, half Doer" in that light.

Exactly. Until there is a known successor who can be as popular as Notley, the NDP would be foolish to turf her.

IMO, once the UCP gets a more moderate leader, ANDP is sort of screwed. The UCP won this time even though Smith was a certified lunatic. How much better would the UCP do if, say, Travis Toews were the leader?

Haha, do you think that gang of nutbars is going to pick a moderate leader? I'm not too worried about it right now.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Fun FPTP fact: the ANDP's disappointing night saw them get a greater share of the vote last night than CAQ's mercurial majority under landslide Legault last October

[Upper Canada Tory]

My hot take for the day is that UCP and NDP both suck and Alberta Party is based. Change my mind.

0.7% of the electorate can't be wrong!

Virgin UCP:
-Doesn't support climate action
-Supports coal mining
-Has a leader found of having violated the conflict of interest act

Virgin NDP:
-Raised taxes during a recession
-Ran large deficits
-Pandered to Calgary with $1B worth of promises and still lost

Chad Alberta Party:
-Doesn't support raising taxes during a recession
-Supports both oil/gas and lithium mining
-Is against coal mining
-Supports provincial climate action
-Supports fiscal responsibility and balancing the budget

It's easy to be all things for all people when you don't have a cat's chance in hell of winning. I don't think the Alberta Party, or any party, could represent a significant number of Albertans without alienating as many or more, because of how polarized the province is.

I'm being half facetious, but yeah, this is true.

[Upper Canada Tory]

Rachel Notley shouldn't try to stay on like Dave Barrett did after losing an election as opposition leader. I don't think she can further increase NDP support in the regions where they fell just short of the needed breakthroughs. More likely Danielle Smith is pushed out as Premier than Notley wins the next election.

I'm of the "if she can't, who can?" POV.  Basically, given the nature of Alberta, *all* potential leaders are skunked in that light, however "right of the party" they might stand.

Notley's sort of "half Barrett, half Doer" in that light.

Exactly. Until there is a known successor who can be as popular as Notley, the NDP would be foolish to turf her.

IMO, once the UCP gets a more moderate leader, ANDP is sort of screwed. The UCP won this time even though Smith was a certified lunatic. How much better would the UCP do if, say, Travis Toews were the leader?

Haha, do you think that gang of nutbars is going to pick a moderate leader? I'm not too worried about it right now.

Believe it or not, times change. The final ballot of the leadership election was 54 vs 46 Smith vs Toews. I wouldn't be surprised if in a future leadership election Toews or someone like him may flip enough voters to win.

[Upper Canada Tory]

Rachel Notley shouldn't try to stay on like Dave Barrett did after losing an election as opposition leader. I don't think she can further increase NDP support in the regions where they fell just short of the needed breakthroughs. More likely Danielle Smith is pushed out as Premier than Notley wins the next election.

I'm of the "if she can't, who can?" POV.  Basically, given the nature of Alberta, *all* potential leaders are skunked in that light, however "right of the party" they might stand.

Notley's sort of "half Barrett, half Doer" in that light.

Exactly. Until there is a known successor who can be as popular as Notley, the NDP would be foolish to turf her.

IMO, once the UCP gets a more moderate leader, ANDP is sort of screwed. The UCP won this time even though Smith was a certified lunatic. How much better would the UCP do if, say, Travis Toews were the leader?

Well it's hard to say because the certified lunatic objectively saw an improvement in UCP fortunes compared to her predecessor. Jason Kenney was more of a moderate on the surface, but he was extremely politically toxic, more so than Smith was this campaign. The NDP's strongest attacks on the UCP were related to things that happened under Kenney, and with Smith there was just enough plausible deniability that those didn't quite land as they would have against Kenney.

I do agree with you that Travis Toews would have been a better leader. He would have more Kenney-era baggage, and TBA-style movements might have gravitated more to the right-wing fringe parties with him as leader - but conversely, the NDP might not have been able to eat up the Alberta Party, Liberals and Greens quite as much, with Toews being a less "scary" candidate to those on the left. Overall, UCP would probably have done slightly better in Calgary and had a more efficient vote.

But I don't think this election would have been a UCP blowout without Smith. The Alberta NDP is one of the most well-organized and well-funded centre-left parties in Canada. Alberta really hasn't even trended that hard to the left, but it is trending that way and the ANDP has monopolized that trend, helped by the collapse of the Alberta Libs. So I wouldn't underestimate the ANDP and assume that they were only competitive because of Smith. As long as the ANDP sticks to an Alberta acceptable position (don't go too far to the left, and support oil and gas), they will remain competitive

The problem with Alberta NDP is that they haven't changed with the times. They essentially campaigned on the same policies with which they governed while they were in office. Raising the corporate tax during a recession (Alberta is not in a recession right now but an upcoming recession is widely expected globally), not challenging the federal government's environmental policy excesses to any significant degree, large amounts of government spending which as we saw, is not a good strategy in Alberta because it did not sway Calgary.

I'd say in 2015, Alberta NDP was victorious for three reasons:
1. Widespread dissatisfaction of 40-year PC rule
2. The fact that the carbon tax wasn't a part of the political discussion in Canada back in 2015, so they didn't campaign on it
3. Vote splitting on the right (PC+Wildrose)

These factors are pretty much no longer there. I think the fact that Notley campaigned on the carbon tax in 2019 (and was assumed to be on board with it in 2023) opens up the attack line that she's a 'proxy of Trudeau' to which she really has no good counterargument. In 2015, she didn't have to address this issue.

People don't really associate the Notley era with very positive connotations, because the Albertan economy wasn't doing very well at the time, which wasn't entirely her fault but her policies didn't make it much better, so campaigning on the things you campaigned and governed on back then + things that are evidently unpopular in Alberta (eg, the carbon tax) is not really going to win you many votes. I would say that in this election, the fact that Smith was a bit of a lunatic really did help Notley gain more votes than she otherwise would have. If Notley had avoided the rhetoric about raising taxes and at least appeared to challenge the perceived federal government's hostility to the energy sector, she would have done a lot better.

[DL]

One thing that strikes me about the results is that the NDP vote is actually very efficient. getting 38 seats while losing the popular vote by almost 9% is a good showing and points to a lot of wasted UCP votes in rural ridings where they run up these North Korean like margins. If this sort of pattern holds four years from now I think its safe to say that the NDP could win easily win more seats than the UCP if they came within 4 or 5 percent in the popular vote (i.e., if the popular vote had been 50-46 rather than 52.5-44 - the NDP likely would have won 44-45 seats). And over the coming years the demographic shifts in Alberta will continue. Old people will die off, younger people will enter the electorate. Calgary and Edmonton will get bigger and rural Alberta will stagnate.

Its impossible to predict what the next four years will bring but it has already been pointed out that oil has dropped below $70/barrel and that already through Danielle Smith's budget assumptions out the window. The war in Ukraine will eventually end and that could quickly kick the price of oil back below $50/barrel and then Alberta is back in a 2015 style revenue collapse... 

[Upper Canada Tory]

One thing that strikes me about the results is that the NDP vote is actually very efficient. getting 38 seats while losing the popular vote by almost 9% is a good showing and points to a lot of wasted UCP votes in rural ridings where they run up these North Korean like margins. If this sort of pattern holds four years from now I think its safe to say that the NDP could win easily win more seats than the UCP if they came within 4 or 5 percent in the popular vote (i.e., if the popular vote had been 50-46 rather than 52.5-44 - the NDP likely would have won 44-45 seats). And over the coming years the demographic shifts in Alberta will continue. Old people will die off, younger people will enter the electorate. Calgary and Edmonton will get bigger and rural Alberta will stagnate.

Its impossible to predict what the next four years will bring but it has already been pointed out that oil has dropped below $70/barrel and that already through Danielle Smith's budget assumptions out the window. The war in Ukraine will eventually end and that could quickly kick the price of oil back below $50/barrel and then Alberta is back in a 2015 style revenue collapse...  

For what it's worth, there have been times when commodity prices were low but Alberta's economy still came out strong. For example, commodity prices were low in the 1990s but Alberta had the highest economic growth in Canada and even achieved a balanced budget. I think it depends on how the current UCP government would handle a future economic downturn that will make the difference.

[Oryxslayer]

For someone not very familiar with Canadian (let alone Albertan) politics, why is Calgary dramatically more conservative than Edmonton?  Is it just about oil?

It's primarily about oil. Pretty much all of Alberta's oil & gas companies are headquartered in Calgary. Calgary is home to white collar conservatism because of this.

It's not just about oil, but there is a certain corporate city vs government city kind of dynamic. I will note though that as has been observed on numerous occasions, Albertans are more Big-C conservatives than small-c conservatives. There's a certain overriding political identity, but in terms of ideological preference (you see this municipally where there are no party labels), the big cities prefer centrist progressives, all other things being equal.

Question, not just for you but for other Canadians who are informed enough to answer: Do we think Notley wins if the only thing that changes was if the Conservatives hypothetically controlled Ottawa and not Trudeau's Liberals?

As you mentioned, Alberta does have a big-C Conservative political culture federally for a multitude of understandable reasons  relating to all the Federal parties and their coalitions. This means that the federal Conservatives do have an air of being beyond reproach, but the provincial or local ones are not. Certain issues that could/should be blamed on provincial politicians are blamed on the disliked Liberals. So if it wasn't the Liberals, would it be the UCP instead collecting the blame, and would it be enough?

Any takers?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Rachel Notley shouldn't try to stay on like Dave Barrett did after losing an election as opposition leader. I don't think she can further increase NDP support in the regions where they fell just short of the needed breakthroughs. More likely Danielle Smith is pushed out as Premier than Notley wins the next election.

I'm of the "if she can't, who can?" POV.  Basically, given the nature of Alberta, *all* potential leaders are skunked in that light, however "right of the party" they might stand.

Notley's sort of "half Barrett, half Doer" in that light.

Exactly. Until there is a known successor who can be as popular as Notley, the NDP would be foolish to turf her.

IMO, once the UCP gets a more moderate leader, ANDP is sort of screwed. The UCP won this time even though Smith was a certified lunatic. How much better would the UCP do if, say, Travis Toews were the leader?

Well it's hard to say because the certified lunatic objectively saw an improvement in UCP fortunes compared to her predecessor. Jason Kenney was more of a moderate on the surface, but he was extremely politically toxic, more so than Smith was this campaign. The NDP's strongest attacks on the UCP were related to things that happened under Kenney, and with Smith there was just enough plausible deniability that those didn't quite land as they would have against Kenney.

I do agree with you that Travis Toews would have been a better leader. He would have more Kenney-era baggage, and TBA-style movements might have gravitated more to the right-wing fringe parties with him as leader - but conversely, the NDP might not have been able to eat up the Alberta Party, Liberals and Greens quite as much, with Toews being a less "scary" candidate to those on the left. Overall, UCP would probably have done slightly better in Calgary and had a more efficient vote.

But I don't think this election would have been a UCP blowout without Smith. The Alberta NDP is one of the most well-organized and well-funded centre-left parties in Canada. Alberta really hasn't even trended that hard to the left, but it is trending that way and the ANDP has monopolized that trend, helped by the collapse of the Alberta Libs. So I wouldn't underestimate the ANDP and assume that they were only competitive because of Smith. As long as the ANDP sticks to an Alberta acceptable position (don't go too far to the left, and support oil and gas), they will remain competitive

The problem with Alberta NDP is that they haven't changed with the times. They essentially campaigned on the same policies with which they governed while they were in office. Raising the corporate tax during a recession (Alberta is not in a recession right now but an upcoming recession is widely expected globally), not challenging the federal government's environmental policy excesses to any significant degree, large amounts of government spending which as we saw, is not a good strategy in Alberta because it did not sway Calgary.

I'd say in 2015, Alberta NDP was victorious for three reasons:
1. Widespread dissatisfaction of 40-year PC rule
2. The fact that the carbon tax wasn't a part of the political discussion in Canada back in 2015, so they didn't campaign on it
3. Vote splitting on the right (PC+Wildrose)

These factors are pretty much no longer there. I think the fact that Notley campaigned on the carbon tax in 2019 (and was assumed to be on board with it in 2023) opens up the attack line that she's a 'proxy of Trudeau' to which she really has no good counterargument. In 2015, she didn't have to address this issue.

People don't really associate the Notley era with very positive connotations, because the Albertan economy wasn't doing very well at the time, which wasn't entirely her fault but her policies didn't make it much better, so campaigning on the things you campaigned and governed on back then + things that are evidently unpopular in Alberta (eg, the carbon tax) is not really going to win you many votes. I would say that in this election, the fact that Smith was a bit of a lunatic really did help Notley gain more votes than she otherwise would have. If Notley had avoided the rhetoric about raising taxes and at least appeared to challenge the perceived federal government's hostility to the energy sector, she would have done a lot better.

One of the unique things about this election was that Notley has a record that Albertans are well aware of, and by and large, not fond of. I don't think she was going to change many minds about herself or her party. In fact, both parties seemed to recognize this, and this election was more about turnout than persuasion, with both leaders basically taking a "don't compare me to the almighty, compare me to the alternative" approach. The UCP landed some good attacks on the NDP, as you mentioned, and maybe the impact of those could have been mitigated.

The NDP, however, I think focused on the wrong things in attacking the UCP. They focused a lot on some of the really stupid things Smith said as a talk show host, as well as some very fringe positions like on healthcare. And maybe that could have worked if Smith had taken a GOP-like approach of doubling down and giving credibility to Democrat attacks, but instead Smith significantly moderated her image, even showing contrition at times. She was sometimes compared to Kari Lake, as two right-wing women with a history in media and a pattern of saying some very fringe things. But while Lake played up that image even more, Smith played it down a lot and came off much more premier-like than she did in her shock-jock talk radio days.

As far as attacks go, I think focusing more on the UCP's shaky handling of provincial government services would have been better, because that points to a tangible thing that Albertans personally dealt with. Most of it was under Kenney, true, but most of Kenney's top ministers were also in Smith's cabinet.