Alberta election 2023

[Benjamin Frank]

The election is still more than a year away but the main parties are already well underway.
https://daveberta.ca/ is a good website to check for Alberta politics (from a center/left of center perspective.)

I was wondering specifically though if there are New Democrats in Alberta who are concerned that, now that they seem to have become the alternative governing party, that their party is being at least somewhat taken over by a lot of more centrist newcomers.

[brucejoel99]

The first AB poll taken since Kenney announced his resignation has dropped, courtesy of Léger, & boy, oh boy, it's a doozy: a "what if" question allowing voters to imagine a complete fantasy in which the UCP elects the unicorn leader that they've dreamt of shows them capturing 42% of the voters' intentions to the Notley NDP's 40%. But, 35% would vote for the Notley NDP to a Brian Jean-led UCP's 26%, & 36% would prefer Notley's NDP to 25% in favor of a Danielle Smith-led UCP. Of course, the leaderless UCP polls better because it allows voters to project their best-case scenario leader unto the party, but if Notley's winning by 10 in Calgary against Jean & by 12 against Smith, then she remains the once-&-future-Premier, unless the UCP surpasses expectations & elects a leader who can both run within a few points in Calgary & unite the party, but of course, they haven't proven capable of offering AB stability thus far, so why should they be expected to start now? Who would've guessed that melding 2 radically different, regressive visions for AB together seems to not have worked out? I will say, though, that watching the UCP break apart under its own hubris is thoroughly entertaining, if detrimental for AB, but that leadership vote proved that there's nothing but party dis-unity & enough may not stay together to win a 2nd term. The UCP should be afraid that under great circumstances (Kenney gone, oil booming, & nice weather), they're only at 42%.

As for the election of Kenney's successor, Jean captures the support of 22% of likely UCP leadership voters to Smith's 18%, with Jean at 35% amongst already-decided voters to Smith's 29%, & nobody else capturing greater than 5% of the vote.

[mileslunn]

I think for Alberta election, NDP was heavily favoured if Kenney stayed on.  No one seemed to like him.  Right felt he was insufficiently conservative so some would have gone WIP or stayed home.  While most centrist who were okay with old PCs felt he swung too far to right and many of them would have voted NDP.

I still think Notley is likely to win next year, but with Kenney gone its less certain.  A lot though depends on who UCP chooses as leader, but likely someone even more right wing than Kenney meaning firm up their rural base, but likely costs them Calgary and if lose Calgary, they lose election.

By party:

NDP: Notley has reasonably good personal approval ratings and the scare tactics will be tough to work against her as people already know what she would be like as premier.  Likewise despite stereotype, Alberta is not that right wing and Notley is fairly pragmatic so gap between her and median Alberta voter is much smaller than many think.  Still her two main weaknesses are economy is doing well which usually favours incumbent and there are plenty of left wing social activists involved in party so she will need to vet candidates closely as unlike 2015 when no one expected her to win; they will get a lot more attention.

UCP:  They have to find a way to unite Rural Alberta + Calgary (Edmonton is a lost cause for them).  With COVID-19 that was impossible but as long as no bigger wave with COVID-19 maybe possible but tough.  Both are fiscally conservative, but Calgary is generally socially progressive while Rural Alberta is very much your right wing populist.  Real problem they have is party is too divided and many still think Alberta is a province where conservatives always win so isn't same kind of discipline to stay on same page like you see with Ontario Tories where they know it doesn't take much to lose.

By region

Rural Alberta: NDP probably win a few like Lethbridge East, Sherwood Park, Banff-Kananaskis and maybe a few more in Edmonton Capital region.  But I suspect most of this to go solidly UCP.  WIP may come in second in a few, but likely wins none.  Not enough for UCP to win on this alone, but has around 36 reliable seats so good base to work off of.

Edmonton:  NDP easily sweeps this and if UCP wins (I don't think they will, but if) they probably have to appoint someone from surrounding areas like Leduc, Spruce Grove as cabinet minister to represent Edmonton.

Calgary: Whomever wins here wins overall.  I think NDP has slight edge here but won't sweep it like Edmonton.  Likewise unlike Edmonton which fully supports NDP or Rural Alberta who wants to go hard right, median Calgary voter probably falls somewhere in between the two parties and lots will be voting for lesser of two evils, not whom they want.

For leadership, too early to say but I think Jean has better odds than Smith does although I still think Notley would beat both.

[Benjamin Frank]

Nobody so far has taken up the one part of the comment in my post that I wrote on March 12, on how it seems, at least somewhat, that the NDP is being taken over by more centrist types who haven't had a longstanding connection to the party.

Daveberta wrote this on May 20:

Notley and NDP MLAs have been spending every spare moment in Calgary.

It’s a full-court press.

They know they have to make big gains in the province’s largest city to form government.

And they have some impressive bench strength.

Former city councillor Druh Farrell in Calgary-Bow.

Energy analyst Samir Kayende in Calgary-Elbow.

Sustainable energy expert Nagwan Al-Guneid in Calgary-Glenmore.

Canadian Forces veteran and police commission vice-chair Marilyn North Peigan in Calgary-Klein.

Physician Luanne Metz in Calgary-Varsity.

Calgarians with impressive resumes who could presumably become cabinet ministers on Day 1 of a new Notley government, which is what she will need if her party wins in 2023.

It feels more like a Progressive Conservative lineup than a traditional working-class NDP slate.

https://daveberta.ca/2022/05/ucp-chaos-good-for-notley-ndp/

[mileslunn]

Nobody so far has taken up the one part of the comment in my post that I wrote on March 12, on how it seems, at least somewhat, that the NDP is being taken over by more centrist types who haven't had a longstanding connection to the party.

Daveberta wrote this on May 20:

Notley and NDP MLAs have been spending every spare moment in Calgary.

It’s a full-court press.

They know they have to make big gains in the province’s largest city to form government.

And they have some impressive bench strength.

Former city councillor Druh Farrell in Calgary-Bow.

Energy analyst Samir Kayende in Calgary-Elbow.

Sustainable energy expert Nagwan Al-Guneid in Calgary-Glenmore.

Canadian Forces veteran and police commission vice-chair Marilyn North Peigan in Calgary-Klein.

Physician Luanne Metz in Calgary-Varsity.

Calgarians with impressive resumes who could presumably become cabinet ministers on Day 1 of a new Notley government, which is what she will need if her party wins in 2023.

It feels more like a Progressive Conservative lineup than a traditional working-class NDP slate.

https://daveberta.ca/2022/05/ucp-chaos-good-for-notley-ndp/

Alberta is not a particularly left wing province.  Heck even in BC or Ontario, NDP couldn't win if they were too left wing.  Never mind as main alternative to UCP, they are bound to attract several federal Liberals.  I think its more being pragmatic that most in NDP have number one goal of ousting UCP and if too right wing won't happen.  I would say Notley is a lot like Horgan in terms of progressive but pragmatic.  And Horgan unlike previous NDP leaders in BC has been quite successful.

[Benjamin Frank]

Nobody so far has taken up the one part of the comment in my post that I wrote on March 12, on how it seems, at least somewhat, that the NDP is being taken over by more centrist types who haven't had a longstanding connection to the party.

Daveberta wrote this on May 20:

Notley and NDP MLAs have been spending every spare moment in Calgary.

It’s a full-court press.

They know they have to make big gains in the province’s largest city to form government.

And they have some impressive bench strength.

Former city councillor Druh Farrell in Calgary-Bow.

Energy analyst Samir Kayende in Calgary-Elbow.

Sustainable energy expert Nagwan Al-Guneid in Calgary-Glenmore.

Canadian Forces veteran and police commission vice-chair Marilyn North Peigan in Calgary-Klein.

Physician Luanne Metz in Calgary-Varsity.

Calgarians with impressive resumes who could presumably become cabinet ministers on Day 1 of a new Notley government, which is what she will need if her party wins in 2023.

It feels more like a Progressive Conservative lineup than a traditional working-class NDP slate.

https://daveberta.ca/2022/05/ucp-chaos-good-for-notley-ndp/

Alberta is not a particularly left wing province.  Heck even in BC or Ontario, NDP couldn't win if they were too left wing.  Never mind as main alternative to UCP, they are bound to attract several federal Liberals.  I think its more being pragmatic that most in NDP have number one goal of ousting UCP and if too right wing won't happen.  I would say Notley is a lot like Horgan in terms of progressive but pragmatic.  And Horgan unlike previous NDP leaders in BC has been quite successful.

Well sure, but the question I asked earlier was (more or less) 'if you were a longtime New Democrat in Alberta, how would you feel about these people with (presumbably) no ties to the party winning nominations to become MLAs?"

[DL]

Well sure, but the question I asked earlier was (more or less) 'if you were a longtime New Democrat in Alberta, how would you feel about these people with (presumbably) no ties to the party winning nominations to become MLAs?"

The thing to keep in mind is that outside of downtown Edmonton there really are not very many "longtime New Democrats" in Alberta. Before Notley's shock win in 2015 the NDP was a tiny fringe party in Alberta with about 5,000 card carrying members in the whole province most of whom were public service employees in downtown Edmonton. In Calgary the NDP was literally non-existent and many MLAs elected in Calgary in 2015 were just "names on the ballot". Virtually everyone involved with the Alberta NDP these days in Calgary is someone with very recent ties to the party. Many may have formerly been Liberals or were non-partisan progressives. So this is really no big deal.

[MaxQue]

In 2008, the NDP had 2 seats and 8%; in 2012, 4 seats and 10%. So, the 2015 election happened a bit out of nowhere.

[mileslunn]

Well sure, but the question I asked earlier was (more or less) 'if you were a longtime New Democrat in Alberta, how would you feel about these people with (presumbably) no ties to the party winning nominations to become MLAs?"

The thing to keep in mind is that outside of downtown Edmonton there really are not very many "longtime New Democrats" in Alberta. Before Notley's shock win in 2015 the NDP was a tiny fringe party in Alberta with about 5,000 card carrying members in the whole province most of whom were public service employees in downtown Edmonton. In Calgary the NDP was literally non-existent and many MLAs elected in Calgary in 2015 were just "names on the ballot". Virtually everyone involved with the Alberta NDP these days in Calgary is someone with very recent ties to the party. Many may have formerly been Liberals or were non-partisan progressives. So this is really no big deal.

Even where NDP has been around for a long time, NDP in BC, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba are generally more moderate than federal or Ontario as those three are main alternative and have realistic chance at winning so goal is to have broad enough appeal to win.  Federally and Ontario, most elections party doesn't expect to win so its more about moving Overton window leftward not forming government thus why behave differently.

That being said yeah NDP in 2015 did largely come out of nowhere and largely due to unique circumstances.  People were tired of the PCs while Wildrose after floor crossing was seen as too right wing and also too closely tied to PCs so 2015 had a perfect storm. 

Heck some NDP members probably former PCs.  Because Alberta PCs always won, you had a lot join them who wouldn't be conservatives in any other province and only did so as the real decision for premier was seen as PC leadership convention not general election whereas now these type have joined party that actually align with, not one they don't but just trying to influence it to be more palatable.  I bet if you look at 2012 leadership race, a lot who supported Alison Redford are probably now voting NDP, whereas most who supported Gary Mar probably still in UCP, although some moderates maybe switched to Alberta Party.

[mileslunn]

Not a lot of polls and probably until leader chosen understandable.  Most show NDP slightly ahead but UCP still close.  While I believe NDP is favoured, below is what I think each party has in their favour

NDP: With no leadership race, they can focus on next election, building platform, door knocking and recruiting good candidates so have head start.  With a realistic chance of winning, they have a much stronger slate of candidates than did in 2015 so very much have image of government in waiting.  While Trudeau may not be popular, things like Alberta provincial police and especially Alberta pension plan not popular.  Most Albertans more concerned about things province can actually deal with like health care not picking fights with Ottawa.  With surplus likely to be large, NDP has fiscal room (as long as oil stays high off course) for big spending promises without looking reckless so UCP attacking NDP as big spenders and not being able to afford it will be harder.

UCP:  Despite my prediction of NDP win, UCP does have few things in its favour.  Economy is doing really well and with Alberta still somewhat affordable on housing front, UCP can make argument things going well now and not worth risking NDP.  UCP has most of Rural Alberta locked up and likely to win some seats in Calgary even if not majority so dominate Rural Alberta + 1/3 of Calgary seats is enough to win.  For whatever reason polls tend to overestimate NDP so unless corrected for that, possible UCP actually ahead notwithstanding polls.  For whatever reason Albertans have a long habit of looking like they will break their conservative voting habit, but when push comes to shove they return to traditional voting patterns.

So UCP while underdog is far form out of it.  And very high probability next election is an actual race, not a blowout like we are used to.  Even if UCP does win, I don't think even their biggest optimist expects them to do as well as 2019.  Its pretty much a foregone conclusion they are going to lose seats.  Likewise for NDP, I don't think anyone expects them to win as many seats as did in 2015.  You need a strong split on right for that to happen.  They may very well get a higher vote share than did in 2015 (they probably do), but without splits it will be a lot closer. 

[mileslunn]

Alberta Provincial Polling:

NDP: 44% (+11)
UCP: 42% (-13)
ALP: 4% (+3)
WIP: 4% (New)
ABP: 3% (-6)
Others: 4%

Leger / October 10, 2022 / n=1000 / Online

(% Change With 2019 Election)

Check out AB details from
@338Canada
 here: https://338canada.com/alberta/
8:13 AM · Oct 14, 2022
·Twitter Web App

So pretty close.  Smith is not exactly helping UCP, but still party is competitive.  She will be real test of whether the double down on base is way forward or not as she has made clear not interested in appealing to centrist swing voters but trying to unite base.  May work in Alberta but risky strategy and almost certain to fail in provinces that aren't as conservative by nature.

[DL]

That poll was taken in the couple of says after Smith won the UCP leadership during what passes for a honeymoon. She has no where to go but down from here on in. Her crazy comments about unvaccinated people being persecuted more than any other group in her life will hurt as will revelations about her pro-Putin views on Ukraine - especially given Alberta's HUGE Ukrainian-Canadian population

[Estrella]

That poll was taken in the couple of says after Smith won the UCP leadership during what passes for a honeymoon. She has no where to go but down from here on in. Her crazy comments about unvaccinated people being persecuted more than any other group in her life will hurt as will revelations about her pro-Putin views on Ukraine - especially given Alberta's HUGE Ukrainian-Canadian population

Mary Elizabeth "Danielle" Truss.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Danielle Smith may end up being the greatest leader the AB NDP never had. Keep in mind that her botched attempt to unite the right prior to the 2015 Alberta election was probably a major reason why the NDP was able to win that year in the first place, and now it seems like she's hell-bent on making the NDP look like the moderate option in Alberta.

That said, the NDP's path isn't quite easy either. The fundamental difference between now and 2015 is that the right is united, so most of rural Alberta (using that loosely to mean not Edmonton or Calgary) isn't going NDP, and there's only one seat within the City of Edmonton that isn't already NDP. Kaycee Madu is therefore probably definitely toast, but that's 1 seat. The NDP needs 20.

Now let's look at the Edmonton suburbs and give the NDP every riding where they were within a 20-point margin in 2019. They pick up Morinville-St. Albert and Sherwood Park. 3/20, 17 to go.

Now for Calgary. There are 9 UCP seats within city limits where the NDP was within 20 points, but I'll give a tenth one (Calgary-Elbow) to them, because the Alberta Party split the NDP vote in 2019. Now we're at 13/20, 7 seats to be picked up in non-metropolitan Alberta.

Banff-Kananaskis and Lethbridge-East flip orange, bringing the NDP to 15 pickups. 48 UCP, 39 NDP, Danielle Smith gets a majority. Now I know, a universal swing like this isn't how elections work, but it does go to illustrate that the path to an NDP victory in Alberta without a divided right is difficult, Danielle Smith notwithstanding.

[mileslunn]

That poll was taken in the couple of says after Smith won the UCP leadership during what passes for a honeymoon. She has no where to go but down from here on in. Her crazy comments about unvaccinated people being persecuted more than any other group in her life will hurt as will revelations about her pro-Putin views on Ukraine - especially given Alberta's HUGE Ukrainian-Canadian population

Agreed.  If UCP still wins basically will show Alberta votes for a blue picket fence blindly, but I do believe Notley is likely to win, but will still be close just due to nature of Alberta politics.  If she was premier of BC or Ontario, would be a disaster.  In Ontario someone like her would put even rural ridings in danger and in BC the BC Interior ones in danger too.

[Benjamin Frank]

Danielle Smith may end up being the greatest leader the AB NDP never had. Keep in mind that her botched attempt to unite the right prior to the 2015 Alberta election was probably a major reason why the NDP was able to win that year in the first place, and now it seems like she's hell-bent on making the NDP look like the moderate option in Alberta.

That said, the NDP's path isn't quite easy either. The fundamental difference between now and 2015 is that the right is united, so most of rural Alberta (using that loosely to mean not Edmonton or Calgary) isn't going NDP, and there's only one seat within the City of Edmonton that isn't already NDP. Kaycee Madu is therefore probably definitely toast, but that's 1 seat. The NDP needs 20.

Now let's look at the Edmonton suburbs and give the NDP every riding where they were within a 20-point margin in 2019. They pick up Morinville-St. Albert and Sherwood Park. 3/20, 17 to go.

Now for Calgary. There are 9 UCP seats within city limits where the NDP was within 20 points, but I'll give a tenth one (Calgary-Elbow) to them, because the Alberta Party split the NDP vote in 2019. Now we're at 13/20, 7 seats to be picked up in non-metropolitan Alberta.

Banff-Kananaskis and Lethbridge-East flip orange, bringing the NDP to 15 pickups. 48 UCP, 39 NDP, Danielle Smith gets a majority. Now I know, a universal swing like this isn't how elections work, but it does go to illustrate that the path to an NDP victory in Alberta without a divided right is difficult, Danielle Smith notwithstanding.

The swing ridings for the NDP to win a majority are some of the Calgary seats, the other three more outer Edmonton suburbs and Lesser Slave Lake in the North.

[adma]

And let's not forget how in '95, Notley also won the urban Red Deer seats--even if it were vs a disunited right, the notion of her being viable there *at all* means a lot.

Remember, too, that there might be a pool of '15 "disunited right" voters that might be *more* NDP-amenable now than then, simply because they remained residually rather than militantly "NDP-skeptical" going into the '15 election...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

And let's not forget how in '95, Notley also won the urban Red Deer seats--even if it were vs a disunited right, the notion of her being viable there *at all* means a lot.

Remember, too, that there might be a pool of '15 "disunited right" voters that might be *more* NDP-amenable now than then, simply because they remained residually rather than militantly "NDP-skeptical" going into the '15 election...

I think this point will be more relevant in Calgary than in Red Deer though (which is a trade-off the NDP would be happy to make). The NDP's vote share declined in both Red Deer seats in 2019 despite the collapse of the Liberals (who had done pretty well in RD in 2015), because Wildrose and PC voters almost entirely coalesced around the UCP, and even Liberals seem to have gone that way. Calgary is different, in 2019 the NDP saw some positive swings due to the consolidation of Calgary Liberals into the NDP banner, and even some PCs (it just wasn't enough, as most PC voters went UCP). With Danielle Smith as UCP leader, there's a good chance that the NDP picks up a bigger chunk of formerly "PC-uber-alles" Calgarians.

In other words, I think the NDP's path to victory is less about trying to emulate 2015 (which is basically impossible, those were exceptional circumstances), and more about going after former suburban Calgary PCs who aren't too happy about the Wildrose-ification of the right.

[adma]

And let's not forget how in '95, Notley also won the urban Red Deer seats--even if it were vs a disunited right, the notion of her being viable there *at all* means a lot.

Remember, too, that there might be a pool of '15 "disunited right" voters that might be *more* NDP-amenable now than then, simply because they remained residually rather than militantly "NDP-skeptical" going into the '15 election...

I think this point will be more relevant in Calgary than in Red Deer though (which is a trade-off the NDP would be happy to make). The NDP's vote share declined in both Red Deer seats in 2019 despite the collapse of the Liberals (who had done pretty well in RD in 2015), because Wildrose and PC voters almost entirely coalesced around the UCP, and even Liberals seem to have gone that way. Calgary is different, in 2019 the NDP saw some positive swings due to the consolidation of Calgary Liberals into the NDP banner, and even some PCs (it just wasn't enough, as most PC voters went UCP). With Danielle Smith as UCP leader, there's a good chance that the NDP picks up a bigger chunk of formerly "PC-uber-alles" Calgarians.

In other words, I think the NDP's path to victory is less about trying to emulate 2015 (which is basically impossible, those were exceptional circumstances), and more about going after former suburban Calgary PCs who aren't too happy about the Wildrose-ification of the right.

I absolutely agree on the Calgary front--*that's* the true "next frontier"--however, if it's not just about broadening the tent but optimizing it, not pushing a Red Deer completely out of the picture is a part of that.  Or anyplace where *some* form of urbanity prevails.  (And ditto that strategy for the NDP in Saskatchewan--that is, not *totally* terminally writing off the Weyburn-type places.)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

And let's not forget how in '95, Notley also won the urban Red Deer seats--even if it were vs a disunited right, the notion of her being viable there *at all* means a lot.

Remember, too, that there might be a pool of '15 "disunited right" voters that might be *more* NDP-amenable now than then, simply because they remained residually rather than militantly "NDP-skeptical" going into the '15 election...

I think this point will be more relevant in Calgary than in Red Deer though (which is a trade-off the NDP would be happy to make). The NDP's vote share declined in both Red Deer seats in 2019 despite the collapse of the Liberals (who had done pretty well in RD in 2015), because Wildrose and PC voters almost entirely coalesced around the UCP, and even Liberals seem to have gone that way. Calgary is different, in 2019 the NDP saw some positive swings due to the consolidation of Calgary Liberals into the NDP banner, and even some PCs (it just wasn't enough, as most PC voters went UCP). With Danielle Smith as UCP leader, there's a good chance that the NDP picks up a bigger chunk of formerly "PC-uber-alles" Calgarians.

In other words, I think the NDP's path to victory is less about trying to emulate 2015 (which is basically impossible, those were exceptional circumstances), and more about going after former suburban Calgary PCs who aren't too happy about the Wildrose-ification of the right.

I absolutely agree on the Calgary front--*that's* the true "next frontier"--however, if it's not just about broadening the tent but optimizing it, not pushing a Red Deer completely out of the picture is a part of that.  Or anyplace where *some* form of urbanity prevails.  (And ditto that strategy for the NDP in Saskatchewan--that is, not *totally* terminally writing off the Weyburn-type places.)

I take your point on the NDP going after places where there is "some kind of urbanity", plus the NDP needs to pick up at least 20 UCP seats while holding the 24 they won in 2019, and you can't afford to write off ridings with even the slimmest chance when you're trying to almost double your caucus. Still, Red Deer is unlikely to come through for the NDP - the more NDP-friendly Red Deer riding (South) gave the UCP a 35-point victory in 2019. 338Canada has the NDP virtually tied with the UCP in seat count, yet Red Deer South still has 81% probability of going UCP. So yes, there's an outside chance of flipping it and it wouldn't be wise for the NDP to just concede Red Deer, but it really is an outside chance.

[adma]

338Canada has the NDP virtually tied with the UCP in seat count, yet Red Deer South still has 81% probability of going UCP. So yes, there's an outside chance of flipping it and it wouldn't be wise for the NDP to just concede Red Deer, but it really is an outside chance.

Yet I know from following 538 on the US elections that 81% is still "likely" rather than "safe".  So I'd never write off outside chances, particularly w/a contentious leader like Danielle Smith...

[Benjamin Frank]

338Canada has the NDP virtually tied with the UCP in seat count, yet Red Deer South still has 81% probability of going UCP. So yes, there's an outside chance of flipping it and it wouldn't be wise for the NDP to just concede Red Deer, but it really is an outside chance.

Yet I know from following 538 on the US elections that 81% is still "likely" rather than "safe".  So I'd never write off outside chances, particularly w/a contentious leader like Danielle Smith...

Both Red Deer ridings were won in landslides by the UCP in 2019, so it does seem kind of ridiculous to think the NDP could win there in 2023, but the best evidence that it might be possible is that according to Daveberta in the Red Deer South NDP nomination, which featured 3 credible candidates, Barb Miller the NDP MLA from 2015-2019 and a union official, Kyle Johnston a union official, and the winner, Michelle Baer, the Red Deer city solicitor, over 1,000 people voted in the nomination meeting (which is roughly 1/4 of the total who voted NDP in the riding in the 2019 election.)

I don't know what turnout was like in Red Deer North, which also featured a contested nomination between the winner Jaelene Tweedle, a parent school activist who narrowly lost in both 2017 and 2021 for a position on the at large Red Deer school board, and Craig Curtis a retired Red Deer city manager (the top administrative position) who ran for the Red Deer city council in 2021. Interestingly, he received more votes than Tweedle did, but, unlike Tweedle, came nowhere near to winning. Clearly many more people in Red Deer voted for city council than for school board.

[adma]

338Canada has the NDP virtually tied with the UCP in seat count, yet Red Deer South still has 81% probability of going UCP. So yes, there's an outside chance of flipping it and it wouldn't be wise for the NDP to just concede Red Deer, but it really is an outside chance.

Yet I know from following 538 on the US elections that 81% is still "likely" rather than "safe".  So I'd never write off outside chances, particularly w/a contentious leader like Danielle Smith...

Both Red Deer ridings were won in landslides by the UCP in 2019, so it does seem kind of ridiculous to think the NDP could win there in 2023, but the best evidence that it might be possible is that according to Daveberta in the Red Deer South NDP nomination, which featured 3 credible candidates, Barb Miller the NDP MLA from 2015-2019 and a union official, Kyle Johnston a union official, and the winner, Michelle Baer, the Red Deer city solicitor, over 1,000 people voted in the nomination meeting (which is roughly 1/4 of the total who voted NDP in the riding in the 2019 election.)

I don't know what turnout was like in Red Deer North, which also featured a contested nomination between the winner Jaelene Tweedle, a parent school activist who narrowly lost in both 2017 and 2021 for a position on the at large Red Deer school board, and Craig Curtis a retired Red Deer city manager (the top administrative position) who ran for the Red Deer city council in 2021. Interestingly, he received more votes than Tweedle did, but, unlike Tweedle, came nowhere near to winning. Clearly many more people in Red Deer voted for city council than for school board.

Needless to say, at this point it would have seemed more ridiculous going into 2015 than it is going into 2023--plus, when there *is* a wave for an underdog party, the swing's often more pronounced in its underdog seats.  And besides, if winning really *is* beyond the pale this time, a battle for 2023 could just as well serve as a foundation-laying proxy battle for 2027 (or as a proving/testing ground for battles at other levels of government--obviously likelier municipal than federal).

[King of Kensington]

Does anyone have popular vote for Calgary and Edmonton from the last election (or better yet last two elections)?

[Njall]

Does anyone have popular vote for Calgary and Edmonton from the last election (or better yet last two elections)?

From RidingBuilder I can find the following:

Calgary:

2015
NDP: 147,169 (34%)
PC: 136,152 (31%)
WRP: 98,037 (23%)
ALP: 31,171 (7%)
ABP: 14,914 (3%)
GRN: 3,503 (1%)
OTH: 1,689 (0%)

2019
UCP: 295,005 (53%)
NDP: 188,729 (34%)
ABP: 52,729 (10%)
ALP: 10,951 (2%)
GRN: 3,405 (1%)
OTH: 3,942 (1%)


Edmonton:

2015
NDP: 219,154 (65%)
PC: 68,792 (20%)
WRP: 27,931 (8%)
ALP: 18,916 (6%)
ABP: 3,114 (1%)
GRN: 664 (0%)
OTH: 640 (0%)

2019
NDP: 213,546 (53%)
UCP: 140,672 (35%)
ABP: 40,108 (10%)
OTH: 5,928 (1%)
ALP: 3,969 (1%)
GRN: 1,960 (0%)