Alberta election 2023

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Should not UCP vote share lead be relevant at this stage even if on a riding basis they are not useful?

Ehh not really, because the overall share of votes being reported is still very low.

[Mexican Wolf]

Danielle Smith has been reelected in her riding.

[Oryxslayer]

And rural seats are starting to be called with e-Day polls finally reporting.

[omar04]

I wonder who the only person to vote for the Buffalo Party of Alberta so far is.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I'm surprised that more results aren't in yet. What happened?

[S019]

I'm surprised that more results aren't in yet. What happened?

The reporting agency (Elections Alberta) clearly messed up somehow, we don't know how, and they deny that anything is wrong, so I guess we wait and see.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

CBC calls Camrose for UCP

[Oryxslayer]

7 Rural seats called for UCP, all with percentages 70% or higher.


Edmonton-Meadows called for NDP.

[jaichind]

Should not UCP vote share lead be relevant at this stage even if on a riding basis they are not useful?

Ehh not really, because the overall share of votes being reported is still very low.

Over 240K votes were counted which is more than 10% of the expected vote.  The fact that UCP has a 56.4 to 39.7 vote share lead with over 10% of the vote counted should mean at this stage they got this.

[OSR stands with Israel]

338 calls it for the UCP

https://twitter.com/338Canada/status/1663392632435879936

[Oryxslayer]

24 seats according to my count at the moment still have insufficient votes to deem the leads relevant. Surprisingly, a majority are in Calgary.

[Oryxslayer]

12 Seats called for UCP, all rural.

NDP has 5 called, 4 in Edmonton, 1 is Calgary-Mountainview.

Notley is projected to hold her seat.

[Oryxslayer]

CBC reports that only about 30% of machine tabulators are working at Elections Alberta. Which is likely the source of our issues.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Should not UCP vote share lead be relevant at this stage even if on a riding basis they are not useful?

Ehh not really, because the overall share of votes being reported is still very low.

Over 240K votes were counted which is more than 10% of the expected vote.  The fact that UCP has a 56.4 to 39.7 vote share lead with over 10% of the vote counted should mean at this stage they got this.

Yeah the UCP is in the driver's seat, it's very hard to see the NDP pulling ahead now. Popular vote lead has narrowed to 53-44 now, which is still comfortable for the UCP, but it looks like rural ridings are still reporting disproportionately.

But yeah I think the networks are being a little bearish (understandably so), the UCP should be able to hold on. The UCP is leading most of the key battlegrounds right now. Sure, many of them could change hands, but the NDP needed much better numbers in Calgary and the Edmonton donut

[Njall]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the seat margin narrow to more of like a 48-39 type state (it's 52-35 now) as the evening goes on, but it's definitely looking like a UCP majority, albeit not an overwhelming one.

[Oryxslayer]

First official flip of the night is called to the NDP in Calgary-Currie. Projected count is 23-11 UCP right now.

Note these figures include Jennifer Johnson in the projected UCP total.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Alright, I was hoping to wait until the election was called, but it's getting way too late in eastern time. UCP leading 53-34 right now. That may narrow, but hard to see the NDP pull ahead at this point.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

For someone not very familiar with Canadian (let alone Albertan) politics, why is Calgary dramatically more conservative than Edmonton?  Is it just about oil?

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

For someone not very familiar with Canadian (let alone Albertan) politics, why is Calgary dramatically more conservative than Edmonton?  Is it just about oil?

It's primarily about oil. Pretty much all of Alberta's oil & gas companies are headquartered in Calgary. Calgary is home to white collar conservatism because of this.

[Oryxslayer]

CBC (at long last) makes the call of a UCP majority.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

For someone not very familiar with Canadian (let alone Albertan) politics, why is Calgary dramatically more conservative than Edmonton?  Is it just about oil?

It's primarily about oil. Pretty much all of Alberta's oil & gas companies are headquartered in Calgary. Calgary is home to white collar conservatism because of this.

Thought it does elect progressive municipal politicans for some reason

[super6646]

Ya this dragged the past hr.

[Njall]

For someone not very familiar with Canadian (let alone Albertan) politics, why is Calgary dramatically more conservative than Edmonton?  Is it just about oil?

It's primarily about oil. Pretty much all of Alberta's oil & gas companies are headquartered in Calgary. Calgary is home to white collar conservatism because of this.

It's not just about oil, but there is a certain corporate city vs government city kind of dynamic. I will note though that as has been observed on numerous occasions, Albertans are more Big-C conservatives than small-c conservatives. There's a certain overriding political identity, but in terms of ideological preference (you see this municipally where there are no party labels), the big cities prefer centrist progressives, all other things being equal.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In her concession speech Notley says this is the biggest opposition in Alberta's history.

[S019]

Notley has announced she will continue to serve as Leader of the Opposition, so she is not stepping down, at least for now.