Alberta election 2023

[Oryxslayer]

For someone not very familiar with Canadian (let alone Albertan) politics, why is Calgary dramatically more conservative than Edmonton?  Is it just about oil?

It's primarily about oil. Pretty much all of Alberta's oil & gas companies are headquartered in Calgary. Calgary is home to white collar conservatism because of this.

It's not just about oil, but there is a certain corporate city vs government city kind of dynamic. I will note though that as has been observed on numerous occasions, Albertans are more Big-C conservatives than small-c conservatives. There's a certain overriding political identity, but in terms of ideological preference (you see this municipally where there are no party labels), the big cities prefer centrist progressives, all other things being equal.

Question, not just for you but for other Canadians who are informed enough to answer: Do we think Notley wins if the only thing that changes was if the Conservatives hypothetically controlled Ottawa and not Trudeau's Liberals?

As you mentioned, Alberta does have a big-C Conservative political culture federally for a multitude of understandable reasons  relating to all the Federal parties and their coalitions. This means that the federal Conservatives do have an air of being beyond reproach, but the provincial or local ones are not. Certain issues that could/should be blamed on provincial politicians are blamed on the disliked Liberals. So if it wasn't the Liberals, would it be the UCP instead collecting the blame, and would it be enough?

[Bacon King]

lots of absurdly close seats right now in Calgary


Cross: UCP leads by 310 votes (3.3% margin)
North West: UCP leads by 267 votes (1.2% margin)
Glenmore: UCP leads by 146 votes (1.1% margin)
North: UCP leads by 132 votes (1.2% margin)
Bow: UCP leads by 103 votes (0.8% margin)
Acadia: UCP leads by 57 votes (0.3% margin)

Edgemont: NDP leads by 103 votes (0.4% margin)
Foothills: NDP leads by 270 votes (1.4% margin)
Beddington: NDP leads by 539 votes (2.9% margin)
Elbow: NDP leads by 767 votes (4.2% margin)

(edit: also worth mentioning Calgary East where UCP leads by 467 votes (6.2% margin) but as you can tell from that large margin for such a small number of votes there's still a lot of stuff out)




Banff Kananaskis  close too where UCP leads by 208 votes (1.0% margin)

[Bacon King]

Banff Kananaskis  close too where UCP leads by 208 votes (1.0% margin)

and now NDP leads by 324 votes (1.4% margin) with 26/26 polls reported. Notably, Rachel Notley did not even once visit this seat during the campaign

[Bacon King]

I confess I'm only looking at CBC results so I don't know what the remaining votes might look like but the current seat totals are

UCP 43 Elected + 7 leading
NDP 29 Elected + 8 leading

and amazingly all 7 of those "UCP leading" seats are close enough right now that NDP could take the lead in any of them

note that I'm NOT saying "HERES HOW NOTLEY CAN STILL WIN" because it's unlikely the last votes in ALL these seats will swing the same way, but an insanely small UCP majority (like literally just 45/87 or something) is not out of the question

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How much of the early vote is currently in?

[Benjamin Frank]

Rachel Notley shouldn't try to stay on like Dave Barrett did after losing an election as opposition leader. I don't think she can further increase NDP support in the regions where they fell just short of the needed breakthroughs. More likely Danielle Smith is pushed out as Premier than Notley wins the next election.

The names mentioned to succeed Notley are Rakhi Pancholi in Edmonton and Shannon Phillips in Lethbridge, and I'd add in Kathleen Ganley in Calgary as well. Ganley was solidly reelected and was the Justice Minister and then the energy critic, so two of the top portfolios in the province (although crime wasn't as big a concern from 2015-2019). She also seems to be on the centre right in the party kind of the same way that Anne McLellan was in the federal Liberal Party (not that McLellan won the federal Liberal leadership or anything.)

Also, if not already mentioned, Janet Brown wins for having the closest poll.

[Benjamin Frank]

NDP did surprisingly well in Airdrie, especially Airdrie-Cochrane. This is after all the area where Pierre Poilievre got the most votes for his leadership (Banff-Airdrie.) Somewhere between 5,000-6,000 votes in that riding alone.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

https://twitter.com/electionatlasCA/status/1663314634512777216?s=20

This is a good point. The election has more than once been described as "Americanized" as a response to the duoploistic parties squeezing out all others, and how the coalitions assembled break down in a familiar fashion according to demographic subsamples. The same may possibly be expected of advance voters.

The dwindling of other parties is a really weird feature of this election. Obviously the last one didn’t help given that the Alberta Party got over 9% with nothing to show, but it’s still weird for a Canadian election to be like this. I guess Saskatchewan is close, but two smaller parties broke 2% and collectively the small ones got just over 7%.

[Benjamin Frank]

Can somebody explain this to me? Elections Alberta says that there are 2,840,927 registered voters. On wiki it says that in 2019 there were 2,824,309 registered voters.

At the same time, the population of Alberta has gone from 4,371 million in 2019 to an estimated 4.6 million. There should be a larger increase in registered voters.

[Benjamin Frank]

With the UCP losses in Calgary, I think this will cement this greater return under Danielle Smith to the UCP being more like the Social Credit government from 1936-1971 as a rural dominated right wing/conservative party, much as Christy Clark frequently invoked WAC Bennett the B.C Premier from 1952-1972.

Not that this is anything not previously mentioned here, but the rural based right wing parties tend to be more populist, more focused on small business and especially more suspicious of big business, especially bankers and 'multinationals' (except when attacking the oppostion for driving away investment.) It's not a surprise that UCP supporters seems to frequently invoke conspiracy theories about the World Economic Forum.

[Bacon King]

all seats left to call with current margin and number of polls reported


in Calgary

Acadia 18/18 UCP leads by 119 votes (0.5% margin)
Beddington 14/14 NDP leads by 509 votes (2.5% margin)
Bow 17/19 UCP leads by 655 votes (2.7% margin)
Cross 16/16 UCP leads by 534 votes (3.5% margin)
East 16/18 UCP leads by 647 votes (5.1% margin)
Edgemont 18/18 NDP leads by 270 votes (1.2% margin)
Elbow 18/21 NDP leads by 999 votes (4.9% margin)
Foothills 18/19 NDP leads by 216 votes (1.0% margin)
Glenmore 21/22 UCP leads by 99 votes (0.4% margin)
North 11/14 UCP leads by 75 votes (0.6% margin)
North-West: 15/16 UCP leads by 233 votes (1.0% margin)

non Calgary:

Banff-Kananananann: 26/26 NDP leads by 244 votes (1.1% margin)
Lethbridge East: 28/30 UCP leads by 729 votes (3.4% margin)

[Bacon King]

all seats left to call with current margin and number of polls reported


in Calgary

Acadia 18/18 UCP leads by 119 votes (0.5% margin)
Beddington 14/14 NDP leads by 509 votes (2.5% margin)
Bow 17/19 UCP leads by 655 votes (2.7% margin)
Cross 16/16 UCP leads by 534 votes (3.5% margin)
East 16/18 UCP leads by 647 votes (5.1% margin)
Edgemont 18/18 NDP leads by 270 votes (1.2% margin)
Elbow 18/21 NDP leads by 999 votes (4.9% margin)
Foothills 18/19 NDP leads by 216 votes (1.0% margin)
Glenmore 21/22 UCP leads by 99 votes (0.4% margin)
North 11/14 UCP leads by 75 votes (0.6% margin)
North-West: 15/16 UCP leads by 233 votes (1.0% margin)

non Calgary:

Banff-Kananananann: 26/26 NDP leads by 244 votes (1.1% margin)
Lethbridge East: 28/30 UCP leads by 729 votes (3.4% margin)

also there are definitely still early votes left uncounted because i'm seeing steady incremental movement even in these seats with all polls reporting

[Bacon King]

also there are definitely still early votes left uncounted because i'm seeing steady incremental movement even in these seats with all polls reporting

examples: NDP lead in Banff now down to 209 and UCP lead in Calgary-Acadia down to 55

[Benjamin Frank]

all seats left to call with current margin and number of polls reported


in Calgary

Acadia 18/18 UCP leads by 119 votes (0.5% margin)
Beddington 14/14 NDP leads by 509 votes (2.5% margin)
Bow 17/19 UCP leads by 655 votes (2.7% margin)
Cross 16/16 UCP leads by 534 votes (3.5% margin)
East 16/18 UCP leads by 647 votes (5.1% margin)
Edgemont 18/18 NDP leads by 270 votes (1.2% margin)
Elbow 18/21 NDP leads by 999 votes (4.9% margin)
Foothills 18/19 NDP leads by 216 votes (1.0% margin)
Glenmore 21/22 UCP leads by 99 votes (0.4% margin)
North 11/14 UCP leads by 75 votes (0.6% margin)
North-West: 15/16 UCP leads by 233 votes (1.0% margin)

non Calgary:

Banff-Kananananann: 26/26 NDP leads by 244 votes (1.1% margin)
Lethbridge East: 28/30 UCP leads by 729 votes (3.4% margin)

also there are definitely still early votes left uncounted because i'm seeing steady incremental movement even in these seats with all polls reporting

Those are 'voting places' reporting on the Elections Alberta site, and not polling stations. There are frequently multiple polls at a 'voting place.'

In 2019, there were 1,906,366 total ballots cast (including spoiled ballots.) Right now the total count is around 1.725 million including spoiled ballots. So, total votes will likely fall just short of 2019.

[Bacon King]

Those are 'voting places' reporting on the Elections Alberta site, and not polling stations. There are frequently multiple polls at a 'voting place.'

In 2019, there were 1,906,366 total ballots cast (including spoiled ballots.) Right now the total count is around 1.725 million including spoiled ballots. So, total votes will likely fall just short of 2019.

haha thanks i'm not sure if the CBC site is misleading or if I'm somehow so dense that I never managed to pick up on this distinction in the 17 years I've been following Canadian elections

regardless it sounds like I should probably switch over to using the Elections Alberta site

[Logical]

NDP flipped Acadia and Glenmore. What is going on?

[Benjamin Frank]

NDP flipped Acadia and Glenmore. What is going on?

Late breaking story on the CBC.

Those ridings and a few others have been going back and forth all night.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Some people are saying the close ridings going NDP would have flipped the result but I don't see it. By my count in the absolute best case scenario the NDP could have flipped 7 more UCP led ridings in Calgary and the final result would be 44-43 UCP.

Some argue that Notley can be happy that she improved the NDP's results and that she could (if she's ludicrously lucky with the outstanding vote) leave the UCP with an unworkable government, but these results don't really leave great prospects for an NDP path to a government either. If you win every close riding in Calgary, sweep non-suburban Edmonton and sweep Lethbridge too you end up hoping that no lone wacky MP winds up sinking the government. Beyond those seats there aren't many great targets; south Calgary and the exurbs are solidly behind the UCP and the marginal seats of suburban Edmonton of the NDP are closer to flipping than the exurban "donut" seats.

and on the flipside, if instead luck maximally favoured the Tories they'd wind up with a final margin of 56-30, a result that could be fairly described as "crushing" even if it's not that bad by historic standards. One could just as easily argue that Smith was underestimated if she's set for a relatively safe after years of wear and tear plus internal conflict within the UCP. As things stand she's only getting around 2% of the popular vote less than Kenney did.

Notley seems to have fallen victim to Bernie 2020 syndrome; by falling in line on conventional Western center left issues she consolidated her urban support but totally vanished beyond the city limits. In 2015 she actually won several seats in rural Alberta. Without that "back door" the NDP are doomed to remain a perennial opposition party for the foreseeable future.

https://twitter.com/electionatlasCA/status/1663314634512777216?s=20

This is a good point. The election has more than once been described as "Americanized" as a response to the duoploistic parties squeezing out all others, and how the coalitions assembled break down in a familiar fashion according to demographic subsamples. The same may possibly be expected of advance voters.

The dwindling of other parties is a really weird feature of this election. Obviously the last one didn’t help given that the Alberta Party got over 9% with nothing to show, but it’s still weird for a Canadian election to be like this. I guess Saskatchewan is close, but two smaller parties broke 2% and collectively the small ones got just over 7%.

Before Smith won the right wing independents like WIP were polling well but as far as I can tell their support was basically a proxy for hardline anti-COVID restriction types in the rural ridings so Smith was good enough to bring them back into the fold. Then the centrist and center left independents (ALP and ABP especially) moved to Notley out of fear of Smith. To be fair the minor parties also ran bad campaigns, had no incumbents, and at least in the case of WIP exploded due to internal conflicts. Still, had the UCP nominated someone else the right-of-UCP vote probably would have been far higher.

[omar04]

How damaging would it be for the UCP to lose their incumbent ministers? CBC shows four of them are in close races right now.

[super6646]

Shandro losing by 7 votes in Calgary-Acadia with all polls reporting... HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Feel so glad that my vote meant something today. ing weasel.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I asked this question before, but i'm just confused why the swings and expectations for the NDP in Edmonton were so low compared to 2015 ?

[Logical]

CBC has called every seat. 49-38 UCP. Acadia and Glenmore could still flip to UCP through a judicial recount.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=550990.msg9087628#msg9087628
This election has inspired me to make a thread.
Commentary very welcome.

[super6646]

I asked this question before, but i'm just confused why the swings and expectations for the NDP in Edmonton were so low compared to 2015 ?

I mean the NDP already almost swept the city back in 2019. There wasn’t really much more the NDP could do over there.

[Benjamin Frank]

The NDP did surprisingly well I think in many of the southern 'suburban' Calgary ridings that they weren't expected to win. If Danielle Smith pushes the urban/rural divide too far, I could see the NDP winning virtually every Calgary riding in 4 years time.

I could also see the UCP rebelling. By my count, there are just 20 mostly/fully rural ridings in all of Alberta (including the rural north) and the NDP won one of them.  So, of the 49 UCP MLAs, 30 represent ridings that are at least partly urban. Alberta isn't Saskatchewan.

On the other hand, due to the belief of many Albertans that they are reliant on resources (and that certainly is true for a large amount of government revenue), there is a greater concern for many urban Albertans (outside of the city of Edmonton anyway) to rural issues.

So, I don't know what's going to happen. What is the over/under on Danielle Smith serving the full term as Premier?