🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/geertwilderspvv/status/1756079707727016250?t=RuaeyWWX2kYZSje...

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/geertwilderspvv/status/1756079707727016250?t=RuaeyWWX2kYZSje...

He's going for an election alright.

[Flyersfan232]

https://twitter.com/geertwilderspvv/status/1756079707727016250?t=RuaeyWWX2kYZSje...

He's going for an election alright.

he do this all time as long  as he been on twitter

[DavidB.]

53% of all voters think this week's collapse of the formation is negative, 31% think it is positive. Only 16% of NSC 2023 voters and 22% of current NSC voters find it positive.



53% think a majority government of PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB should still be formed, 40% don't think so. 72% of VVD voters, 66% of NSC 2023 voters and 51% of current NSC voters think so.

[DavidB.]

NSC lose 11 seats in latest Ipsos-I&O poll. PVV gain 6 and go to 49.

https://twitter.com/AsherVDSchelde/status/1757471869517631924?s=20

53% of all voters and 58% of NSC voters are disappointed with the breakdown of the coalition formation.

[PSOL]

Like Israel or Spain, no government is better than a government. This isn’t Belgium where technocrats can get in and run things, there’s actually some disruption of politicians making things worse.

[DavidB.]

Dutch media are suggesting there is a breakthrough at NATO: Mark Rutte could be appointed Secretary General before the end of March. In that case, the new VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz would become acting Prime Minister as long as the formation is not finished yet - possibly increasing her chances of becoming PM in a new government too.

[Flyersfan232]

Dutch media are suggesting there is a breakthrough at NATO: Mark Rutte could be appointed Secretary General before the end of March. In that case, the new VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz would become acting Prime Minister as long as the formation is not finished yet - possibly increasing her chances of becoming PM in a new government too.

Biden trying to stop wilders from becoming prime minister?

[DavidB.]

A turbulent debate today. The conclusion is that Prof Dr Kim Putters, the former head of the Netherlands Institute for Social Research and the current head of the Social and Economic Council, will become the new informateur. Another card-carrying PvdA member, Putters is well-respected across the political spectrum and less controversial among left-wingers than Plasterk. He advises the government on changes in society and focuses on the increasing lack of trust in the institutions. As such, he was named "Most Influential Dutchman" by de Volkskrant in 2019 and 2020. He will lead some sort of a cooldown period of a maximum of four weeks in which all parties will be asked about their preferences, also focusing on the type of government cooperation that would be needed - a subject that was avoided in the previous information phase, which proved to be a problem because it was a Sword of Damocles above the negotiating table.

The PVV and BBB still prefer a four-party majority government, but are open to other forms. The VVD have announced they are ready to join an "extraparliamentary" government and are also ready to have ministers in this government. This has to be understood within the context of Yesilgöz potentially becoming acting Prime Minister and then possibly demanding to keep this position. It begs the question, though, what exactly would be 'extraparliamentary' about this government. I'm sure Yesilgöz and Rutte would prefer for it to have that label, which would make things easier within NATO and the EU, but their version of it sounds a lot like a regular majority or minority coalition, albeit with a slightly reduced set of agreements and more room for parliament. The VVD want NSC to have a 'similar commitment' to this government compared to the VVD. NSC, meanwhile, rule out their participation in a traditional government, but are open to joining an 'extraparliamentary' government (presumably of a very different type than the VVD have in mind - barely any formal agreement, no NSC ministers) or to providing confidence and supply to a PVV-VVD-BBB government. Even though the four parties signed an agreement on upholding the constitution and the rule of law, Omtzigt says he does not have enough confidence in Wilders' respect for the rule of law to form a government with him, but - given the document being signed by all four parties - that he does have enough confidence in his respect for the rule of law to tolerate a government with the PVV in it. In numerous interruptions from the left-wing parties, he had difficulty squaring this circle.

It is difficult to understand why the formation cannot simply continue with the four parties only, but perhaps this was a demand from the VVD to help Rutte land his new NATO gig, after which the party would have its hands free to negotiate with the PVV? Or perhaps an additional round would be needed to force Omtzigt back to the table?

One of the highlights of the debate: former informateur Ronald Plasterk and GL-PvdA leader Frans Timmermans roasting each other for a couple of minutes over each other's supposed lack of interest in and affinity with the working class.

[DavidB.]

Lots of coalition talks, but very little action. This evening, Omtzigt has opened the door to providing outside support to a PVV-VVD-BBB government again - while he ruled this out earlier this week, then claiming only an 'extraparliamentary' government would be acceptable. Whatever happens, the fact that this guy keeps changing his mind every few days but has a pivotal position in Parliament based on the election result will be a source for continuing political instability until the next election.

Meanwhile, Ipsos also shows the PVV gaining support - they would now be at a virtual 49 seats. Changes compared to previous poll last month:
https://twitter.com/Opiniepanel/status/1762447664010940913?s=20

[RGM2609]

Is there any particular reason behind Volt losing support in the polls?

[DavidB.]

Is there any particular reason behind Volt losing support in the polls?

They're struggling to receive attention and to differentiate themselves from D66, who are quite visible under Rob Jetten. Volt's party leader Laurens Dassen being quite timid - almost academic - and not very argumentative doesn't help.

[RGM2609]

Is there any particular reason behind Volt losing support in the polls?

They're struggling to receive attention and to differentiate themselves from D66, who are quite visible under Rob Jetten. Volt's party leader Laurens Dassen being quite timid - almost academic - and not very argumentative doesn't help.

Right. If you don't mind me asking further questions about it, I'd be curious what exactly differentiates Volt from D66 after all? Is it just "D66 without having been in government for the past 7 years"?

[DavidB.]

Is there any particular reason behind Volt losing support in the polls?

They're struggling to receive attention and to differentiate themselves from D66, who are quite visible under Rob Jetten. Volt's party leader Laurens Dassen being quite timid - almost academic - and not very argumentative doesn't help.

Right. If you don't mind me asking further questions about it, I'd be curious what exactly differentiates Volt from D66 after all? Is it just "D66 without having been in government for the past 7 years"?

Very welcome to ask more questions, that's what this thread is for.

I'd differentiate between differences in substance/political positions and difference in vibes.

In terms of political positions, the two are almost the same. The only relatively significant difference used to be that Volt supported nuclear energy while D66 opposed it. But before the 2023 election, Rob Jetten decided to turn to the pro-nuclear position, where most voters and particularly most young voters are.

In terms of vibes, there's absolutely the legacy in government vs. being a new movement thing. In the 2021 election, Volt had vibes that were slightly to the right of D66, in the 'lib right' quadrant - Eurofederalism, innovation, technocratic solutions, green growth, that sort of feeling. In the 2023 election, however, they shifted towards a position slightly to the left of D66, with more attention for climate and more attention for topics with a 'woke' vibe. Given the fact that their voters have a similar profile to D66 voters but are a lot younger, this was probably to be expected - the 'lib right' thing is the sort of thing people think there is an electoral market for, but in reality there doesn't seem to be one.

In 2021, under the less youthful Sigrid Kaag, D66 was also successful in attracting older, more suburban 'centrist' voters looking for 'states(wo)manship' while ceding support among students to Volt - partly because of the more youthful/student-like 'vibe', but also partly because their legacy at the Ministry of Education under their minister Ingrid van Engelshoven (2017-2021) had not been perceived unanimously as a success. But Rob Jetten is younger than Laurens Dassen and Education Minister Van Engelshoven was replaced by Robbert Dijkgraaf in Rutte-IV (2021-2023), who is more popular. Now that D66 is almost certainly entering opposition, creating a unique profile for Volt will be challenging to Dassen.

Volt missed a unique opportunity by not allowing Sophie in 't Veld, undoubtedly the best-known Dutch MEP, to lead their list in the upcoming EP election after she had already switched from D66 to Volt. Officially, internal procedures were the reason, but the real reason seems to be that the party is run by a small incrowd, mostly consisting of former consultants, which is very afraid of ceding control of the party. This is also why incrowd figure Reinier van Lanschot (who is from a bankers' family - and in the Dutch language there is no name imaginable that says 'I'm a banker' more than 'Reinier van Lanschot') is now their #1 in the upcoming EP election, who has zero EU experience, even though there were candidates with much more EU experience. Volt could have easily won 2 or even 3 seats with In 't Veld as leading candidate - but that would have made In 't Veld a threat to the existing leadership.

[RGM2609]

As a proud "lib right", fear our might, the time will come. Many thanks!

[DavidB.]

On Friday, De Telegraaf, the most-read newspaper in the Netherlands and very close to the VVD, launched some striking allegations at NSC leader Pieter Omtzigt. In the newspaper's political podcast, journalist Wouter de Winther claims that the formation looks "hopeless" because of Pieter Omtzigt's character. According to De Winther, multiple sources claim that "very frequent crying sessions, raising his voice, walking out of the room at the moment he had to take a position or when a decision was going to be made, changing his mind all the time" were some of the attributes of Omtzigt's behavior at the negotiating table, which would have left these sources "baffled". Omtzigt's co-negotiator and confidant, Eddy van Hijum, was supposedly embarrassed by his behavior. De Winther claims it is a matter of time before Omtzigt will let Van Hijum take over, and that mutiny in the NSC parliamentary group is already growing - especially after Omtzigt's mismanaged exit from the formation process under Plasterk.

De Telegraaf is of course close to the VVD and it supports the formation of a right-wing government. Still, De Winther's description is in line with what we know of Omtzigt's previous behavior. The NSC parliamentary group is full of people with excellent professional careers in society who will not be amused with the way Omtzigt left the formation, went back to the East of the country for a break, and left his - most of them unexperienced - MPs out in the cold to explain everything to the press. So even if there is some exaggeration involved here, Omtzigt's personal instability would be a ticking time bomb under any newly formed government, even if this formation would succeed.

Whether truthful or not, leaking this information - probably done by people from within the VVD - is highly damaging to Omtzigt and creates a new reality. In the short term, it may increase pressure on him to enter a government and it may increase pressure on NSC in general, with various potential outcomes. But it will do nothing to increase Omtzigt's trust in his negotiating partners. But perhaps the VVD insiders have already lost their faith in the formation process and are getting ready for a new election later this year with Dilan Yesilgöz as incumbent PM, in which the center-right vote is up for the taking for all of PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB.

[DavidB.]

A breakthrough in the formation after a two-day negotiating marathon session: according to de Volkskrant, informateur Kim Putters says it is time for the 'next step' and will advise the formation of a 'extraparliamentary' government consisting of PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB. The idea seems to be that the coalition agreement would contain just the basics, leaving much room for parliament, and that all four party leaders would stay in Parliament - although it's not clear yet whether Wilders will accept this. Negotiations on the content of the coalition agreement itself - presumably still difficult - would have to follow. To be continued...

[President Johnson]

Dutch media are suggesting there is a breakthrough at NATO: Mark Rutte could be appointed Secretary General before the end of March. In that case, the new VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz would become acting Prime Minister as long as the formation is not finished yet - possibly increasing her chances of becoming PM in a new government too.

Wasn't Stoltenberg scheduled to stay until October regardless of the decision of his successor?

[Diouf]

Wilders tweeted that "I could only become PM if all parties in the coalition wanted. That was not the case". So it sounds like they are going with the strange model, where all the party leaders will stay in parliament.

https://twitter.com/geertwilderspvv/status/1767973876141641870

[President Johnson]

What's the most scenario ahead now? Technocrat cabinet and snap elections? Or minority government with PVV support?

[DavidB.]

Wasn't Stoltenberg scheduled to stay until October regardless of the decision of his successor?

Yes, but to me this seems to be the sort of thing that could very well be 'scheduled' until it isn't anymore.

What's the most scenario ahead now? Technocrat cabinet and snap elections? Or minority government with PVV support?

Wilders' decision makes the formation of a PVV-VVD-NSC-BBB government more likely, not less likely. It was always clear that VVD and NSC weren't going to accept Wilders as PM. I always expected this. This is the sacrifice Wilders has to make to make the formation of this coalition work.

It looks like the four parties are now heading towards the formation of a government in which all four parties are equally committed to a non-detailed coalition agreement, but the party leaders are outside the government and stay in parliament - a form of government which they would then call extraparliamentary.

[Flyersfan232]

Wasn't Stoltenberg scheduled to stay until October regardless of the decision of his successor?

Yes, but to me this seems to be the sort of thing that could very well be 'scheduled' until it isn't anymore.

What's the most scenario ahead now? Technocrat cabinet and snap elections? Or minority government with PVV support?

Wilders' decision makes the formation of a PVV-VVD-NSC-BBB government more likely, not less likely. It was always clear that VVD and NSC weren't going to accept Wilders as PM. I always expected this. This is the sacrifice Wilders has to make to make the formation of this coalition work.

It looks like the four parties are now heading towards the formation of a government in which all four parties are equally committed to a non-detailed coalition agreement, but the party leaders are outside the government and stay in parliament - a form of government which they would then call extraparliamentary.

will wilders get to pick the person to become prime minister if so who?

[DavidB.]

will wilders get to pick the person to become prime minister if so who?

I don't think he'll get to pick the PM singlehandedly, but it stands to reason that he'll have a big voice in it. It will probably have to be someone with a clear right-wing profile.

[Flyersfan232]

will wilders get to pick the person to become prime minister if so who?

I don't think he'll get to pick the PM singlehandedly, but it stands to reason that he'll have a big voice in it. It will probably have to be someone with a clear right-wing profile.

who do u think it will be?

[DavidB.]

A little more elaboration on the past period. When Kim Putters became informateur, the left-wing parties claimed the formation had to start from scratch again and all the time in between had been wasted. It was easy to draw this conclusion at the time, but it didn't prove to be true: the 'fundaments for constitutionality' the four leaders had agreed on under Plasterk were essential for the next step to be taken.

When Putters started his job, he first organized a number of roundtable discussions with a number of (mostly academic) experts to inform himself: on experiences with formations in general, on public governance, on parliamentary history, and on an international comparative perspective on the formation of non-majority governments (with specific attention for Denmark).

Then, Putters invited all 15 party leaders to share their perspective on the next steps in the formation, which only Stephan van Baarle (DENK) was not willing to do (in protest of any attempts to govern with the PVV). Esther Ouwehand (PvdD) wanted centrist options without the PVV to be investigated, but all the other party leaders supported the investigation of some sort of combination of PVV-VVD-NSC-BBB. Frans Timmermans (GL-PvdA) explicitly excluded support for any type of government that depends on the PVV, and Geert Wilders (PVV) explicitly excluded support for a minority government without the PVV in it.

Given that we have negative parliamentarism, an important question is whether any potential minority government would be sent home immediately. GL-PvdA and D66 didn't exclude this possibility if Wilders were to become PM. Volt said this would depend on the type of government and the content of the coalition agreement.

CDA, D66, SP, FVD, SGP, ChristenUnie, Volt and JA21 say they are willing to judge proposals by their content and not to vote against everything a minority government would propose. GL-PvdA will not "cooperate when the PVV is involved in a proposal", with only a limited number of exceptions (this all sounds very vague - in Dutch it does too).

CDA and SGP want a non-extensive coalition agreement; GL-PvdA, D66, PvdD and FVD support this idea but are skeptical about the chances of this happening; the VVD supports the idea, but wants more detailed attention for the 'fundamental principles' of the rule of law, government finances, and the international position of the Netherlands; Pieter Omtzigt (NSC) supports the idea, but explicitly wants a more detailed agreement on "what he finds to be important" (literal quote), "especially regarding a solid financial framework". PVV, BBB, SP and PvdD (mentioned before too...) have no preference for a non-extensive agreement.

Then, Putters negotiated with the parties involved and concluded a "program government" should be formed, i.e. a government with a non-extensive coalition agreement in which all political leaders take place in parliament and 50% of the ministers come from "outside politics". Putters thinks an agreement should be made on "for example these" 10 topics: asylum and immigration; nitrogen, nature, water, agriculture, fisheries and food security; social security and purchasing power; healthcare; public housing; good governance; public safety; finances; rule of law; international affairs and a business-friendly environment.

What now?

Some of my conclusions:

- At different points in the formation, VVD and NSC tried to stay as far away from this government as possible - and both took a severe hit in the polls for doing so. The majority of their voters want this. They now seem to have come to the conclusion that this option is the only workable option. An option in which either the VVD or NSC would provide outside support to a government of PVV, BBB and one of VVD or NSC would not be workable, because the VVD understandably demanded 'the same level of commitment' from all parties.

- For the sake of their position internationally (VVD) and their credibility nationally (NSC), it is in the interest of VVD and NSC to claim this is very much not a regular four-party government. For the sake of the stability of this future coalition, it is in the interest of PVV and BBB to not openly speak out against this narrative, even though these two parties would prefer a regular four-party government. The term 'extraparliamentary government' was sent to the bin by Putters because it makes no sense (every government always depends on not having a parliamentary majority against it), so 'program government' it's going to be.

- It is in the interest of the left-wing opposition to claim this is very much a regular government in the making, only with some window dressing involved.

- The truth will probably be somewhere in the middle, but could veer towards either end. If the coalition agreement ends up very extensive and the vast majority of the ministers end up coming from the four parties, it would be difficult to dispute the left's conclusion. But if the coalition agreement will not be very extensive, there is actually a lot of room for parliament, and many ministers come from outside politics, then this is indeed an innovation in Dutch politics.

- Will the coalition agreement actually be non-detailed? We have to wait and see. But usually, when distrust is greater among future coalition partners, the coalition agreement will be more extensive. Based on that lesson, I would be surprised if this coalition agreement truly ends up so non-detailed.

- Left-wing newspapers wrote angry 'editorial comments' claiming VVD and NSC had easily given up their position and are now forming a government with the PVV. I don't think that's the mood in the country, however. This took four months. Most people are getting annoyed with the slow formation and don't really care about PVV or no PVV.

- Wilders had to give up his claim on the PM position and has said he did so out of love for the country. This will definitely strengthen him: it looks statesmanlike, and by staying in parliament with more distance from the government, it is probably easier to remain popular too. However, afterwards, Wilders stated that regarding his PM ambitions there was "one party that said: fine" (BBB), "one party that said: preferably not, but we won't block it" (the VVD), and "one that said: absolutely not" (NSC). Wilders said Omtzigt blocking him as PM would be "unfair, undemocratic, and constitutionally incorrect".

- Important to note that Wilders also has to walk a difficult tightrope here, as part of the PVV base will have difficulty understanding why Wilders as leader of the biggest party cannot become PM. They would perhaps become angry if Wilders had left the impression he had given away the position too easily. Now, I think he ended up as the net winner of this. The issue regarding Wilders' PM ambitions overshadowed the bigger conclusion: that the negotiations on actual policy between the four parties are finally taking off again, and that they found a way to move forward in terms of government structure too.