Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/un_hrc/status/1499696876601462789?s=21
Some familiar voting patterns…

…and some familiar @$$holes in the comments.

What is the practical effect of this?

Setting the stage for the war crimes trials down the line.

Are those to be done in absentia?

Realistically, if the war were to escalate & Putin were to be removed/allowed by the usurping oligarchs/generals to be dragged to international court, then he could obviously be tried & sentenced. However, the ICC doesn't conduct trials in absentia, so if Putin isn't removed or is removed but still isn't allowed by those who removed him to be dragged to international court, then the ICC would just issue an arrest warrant, meaning that any country signed onto ICC jurisdiction would have an obligation to immediately arrest him should he enter their jurisdiction. So, his "punishment" would basically be to just never leave Russia or an allied country thereof again for fear of being detained, tried, sentenced, & punished.

Of course, despite the fact that any war crimes investigation is going to be purely symbolic because Moscow is not a member of the ICC

To clarify, the Court does have jurisdiction over actions taken on Ukrainian territory, though, so if Putin commits war crimes in Ukraine *&* the ICC were to somehow successfully detain him, then he could be tried regardless of Russia's status. Of course, however, the latter pre-requisite condition necessary for a trial would obviously be infinitely easier said than done.

Thank you. So the ICC as a grand jury can conduct a hearing without the defendant and issue an arrest warrant I take it. I was actually pondering the issues in my head last night. Is that what happened to Miloslovic?

Yes, but Milošević's case was handled by the ICTY, an ad-hoc but otherwise ICC-like tribunal for the former Yugoslavia.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/shell-buys-russia-s-flagship-urals-oil-at-a-record-discount

"Shell Buys Russia’s Flagship Urals Oil at a Record Discount"

Shell buys Russian oil at a $28.50 a barrel discount.  Show that

a) there are those that will still buy from Russia
b) Russia has to take a massive haircut to sell
c) energy price surge means Russia still getting a good amount of money out of this deal and in RUB terms still very profitable for Russia given the fall of RUB

[It’s so Joever]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/shell-buys-russia-s-flagship-urals-oil-at-a-record-discount

"Shell Buys Russia’s Flagship Urals Oil at a Record Discount"

Shell buys Russian oil at a $28.50 a barrel discount.  Show that

a) there are those that will still buy from Russia
b) Russia has to take a massive haircut to sell
c) energy price surge means Russia still getting a good amount of money out of this deal and in RUB terms still very profitable for Russia given the fall of RUB

Things like these should make it clear why sanctions alone won’t stop Russia.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/shell-buys-russia-s-flagship-urals-oil-at-a-record-discount

"Shell Buys Russia’s Flagship Urals Oil at a Record Discount"

Shell buys Russian oil at a $28.50 a barrel discount.  Show that

a) there are those that will still buy from Russia
b) Russia has to take a massive haircut to sell
c) energy price surge means Russia still getting a good amount of money out of this deal and in RUB terms still very profitable for Russia given the fall of RUB

Things like these should make it clear why sanctions alone won’t stop Russia.

Yes.  When the sanctions started I felt there was only one key question "Will Russia be able to sell raw materials to the collective West and get paid for it?" Yes or No.  If it is Yes then Russia will get hit badly by sanctions but it will not be existential.  I do not think it is realistic for the answer to be No without causing a world recession and of course the collapse of Russia.

[Badger]

Belarusian Forces Will Not Take Part in Ukraine War, Lukashenko Says

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said on Friday that the Belarusian armed forces were not taking part and would not take part in Russia's military operation in Ukraine.

A close Russian ally, Lukashenko said he spoke to President Vladimir Putin at length by telephone on Friday. Russia has used Belarusian territory to carry out a multi-pronged invasion of Ukraine.

Excellent news!  As probably substandard as the military there is, that was the last thing the Ukraine needed.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Typical Germans lol
https://twitter.com/MKarnitschnig/status/1499538553990168578

The missiles that have already been delivered to Ukraine this week (Stingers and so on) are in working condition. This is about the second batch, that was discussed, but as far as I know hasn't been delivered yet.

BILD reports that of the originally 2,700 missiles in that planned second batch only about 2,000 are operational.

So, out of a grand total of 4,600 missiles delivered or planned to be delivered, 700 turned out to be faulty.

[DaleCooper]

https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1499679745012871171?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

NATO has more reason justification than people realize to intervene in Ukraine, and it's not about defending Democracy or whatever the public justification is. First of all, Europe is not eager to deal with half the population of Ukraine becoming refugees and trying to resettle in the rest of Europe. Second, even though Russia clearly doesn't stand a chance against a head-to-head conflict with NATO, that's cold comfort for the NATO country Russia decides to invade if they end up going that route. Putting a stop to this abomination before they get farther than Ukraine is in the best interests of the West, both Europe and the United States.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1499679745012871171?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

NATO has more reason justification than people realize to intervene in Ukraine, and it's not about defending Democracy or whatever the public justification is. First of all, Europe is not eager to deal with half the population of Ukraine becoming refugees and trying to resettle in the rest of Europe. Second, even though Russia clearly doesn't stand a chance against a head-to-head conflict with NATO, that's cold comfort for the NATO country Russia decides to invade if they end up going that route. Putting a stop to this abomination before they get farther than Ukraine is in the best interests of the West, both Europe and the United States.

Unfortunately I think someone posted that they decided against it.

[Aurelius]

A no-fly zone over Ukraine almost guarantees escalation to at least a general European war if not a world war. I get that because of the way international diplomacy works we had to at least look like we were considering it to humor Zelenskyy, but there were a lot of people not involved in that process who've been stridently advocating for it even though they should really know better. Looking at you, natsec ghouls.

[Person Man]

A no-fly zone over Ukraine almost guarantees escalation to at least a general European war if not a world war. I get that because of the way international diplomacy works we had to at least look like we were considering it to humor Zelenskyy, but there were a lot of people not involved in that process who've been stridently advocating for it even though they should really know better. Looking at you, natsec ghouls.

This was the right decision for now but if the situation changes to the point where millions will die if we don't, it has to happen.

[brucejoel99]

Just paint Ukrainian flags on NATO fighters, fly them in, & white-knuckle our way through praying Russia never finds out

[T'Chenka]

Some Russians sharing their views. Some of these surprised me. 2.5 minutes long.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Just paint Ukrainian flags on NATO fighters, fly them in, & white-knuckle our way through praying Russia never finds out

Doesn't even need to be that. Paint some F-16s jet black without any markings and use them. The F-16 is widely used across Europe and the world.

Paint them with white Zs, that would confuse the Russians.

[Vosem]

My only prediction after reading that article is that the phrase "special operation" will become a common Orwellian-turn-of-phrase in many languages meaning "war", because the article is very insistent that what is going on is a "special operation", not a "war".

If you want to be horrified and are a Russian-speaker, a very not-fun thing for you to read would be the edit wars on the Russian-language Wikipedia article about this conflict. There is an enormous discussion with pro-Russia editors insisting that this is a "special operation", and pro-Ukraine editors insisting that this is a "war", with the (somehow?!) neutral appellation "invasion" ultimately being cited.

Other classic edit wars are regarding whether it is fair to label Putin's claim of genocide in the Donbass as "false" -- which the article does -- and the classic «в/на» Ukraine dispute, with the Russian-language Wikipedia using the more traditional «на».

Anyway, many Western news sources have been blocked in Russia and it seems that Wikipedia -- which obviously cites Western news sources heavily -- is at significant risk of being blocked as well, or at least specific pages.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Some Russians sharing their views. Some of these surprised me. 2.5 minutes long.

Some of the Russians are clearly opposed but pretending as if they are not, like the one middle-aged woman saying "I don't want this, it will cause unemployment and inflation. It probably has to be done though [please don't fire me, I support party line]." Then there are the brainwashed fools.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1499810988786438153

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Some Russians sharing their views. Some of these surprised me. 2.5 minutes long.

Some of the Russians are clearly opposed but pretending as if they are not, like the one middle-aged woman saying "I don't want this, it will cause unemployment and inflation. It probably has to be done though [please don't fire me, I support party line]." Then there are the brainwashed fools.

It reminded me of the "It's a Good Life" episode of The Twilight Zone (Or Simpsons Treehouse of Horror).

"It's good that Putin took us to Ukraine. This is gonna cause unemployment and inflation all across Russia. But it's good what Putin did! Really good!"

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/un_hrc/status/1499696876601462789?s=21
Some familiar voting patterns…

…and some familiar @$$holes in the comments.

What is the practical effect of this?

Setting the stage for the war crimes trials down the line.

Are those to be done in absentia?

One would bloody well hope not. Milosevic, Karazdic, and Mladic were hauled there eventually, as was Charles Taylor.

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/kasparov63/status/1499088993736138754?s=21

Gary Kasparov to remind you all, among other things, that appeasing Putin will not solve anything.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's a fairly obvious issue with any attempt to run vox pops or polling in Russia at the moment - even more so than just a week ago. Besides, more interesting (at this stage) than oppositional sentiment is enthusiasm, and there doesn't seem to be much of it around. If you understand a few things about the logic of war on this scale, you'll understand the significance of that.

[afleitch]

Some Russians sharing their views. Some of these surprised me. 2.5 minutes long.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1499827642522083332

[President Johnson]

A no-fly zone over Ukraine almost guarantees escalation to at least a general European war if not a world war. I get that because of the way international diplomacy works we had to at least look like we were considering it to humor Zelenskyy, but there were a lot of people not involved in that process who've been stridently advocating for it even though they should really know better. Looking at you, natsec ghouls.

I'm extremely conflicted on the issue. It's definitely the right thing to do morally, and I would love to see Russians getting kicked out of Ukraine as long as they keep assaulting a peaceful neighbor country. The potential for an escalation would certainly be there, though backing down means that nuclear powers can pretty much do whatever they want, no matter how abhorrent it might be. It's anyone's guess how Putin would react to NATO countries enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Would he attack a NATO country? That would actually be suicidal.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not exactly insignificant, for all that Electoral Type Events in Russia are brazenly rigged. They're an important part of that vast Potemkin village of practices that have allowed for the illusion that Russia is a normal Republic.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1499827642522083332

"Elections"