Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

But that's the issue: A city falling in less than a week of the invasion is falling quickly. The Battle of Basra in 2003 took two days short of three weeks, and, even granted the caveat that Basra is a large city, that was with a modern US/UK army fighting a badly equipped and undermotivated Iraqi army.

Basra was led by the UK not the US . Just look at the article you sent .


Also the US captured Baghdad which is over 420 miles from Kuwait in less than 3 weeks

It was a coalition force. But that only makes a worse comparison, since US/UK military is more effective than Russia's (combined presumably Belarus if they haven't yet intervened).

I won't fall into a time warp thinking that Russia 'lost' if it didn't conquer Ukraine in 48 hours while the coalition of the willing had a month or so to against a weaker opponent.

In that case, someone oughta tell Putin not to get so bent out of shape about how everything's going

[Splash]

The Basra comparison is not applicable to the current situation in modern day Kyiv or Kharkiv for a number of reasons. The British did take the lead in the assault because they claimed that they had more urban warfare experience than the United States given their history with Northern Ireland. American forces were hesitant to engage in urban combat because their last engagement in Somalia had went so poorly and therefore waited on the outskirts of the city.

There was the hope that a Shia uprising would open the gates to the British but this was not to be. So, the coalition forces opted for a 'wait and see' approach. In the end, the Basra campaign took as long as it did because the Americans wanted to focus on securing the surrounding oilfields first and the British forces had to wait for them to provide the needed logistical support so that they could then clear the city.

[NOVA Green]

But that's the issue: A city falling in less than a week of the invasion is falling quickly. The Battle of Basra in 2003 took two days short of three weeks, and, even granted the caveat that Basra is a large city, that was with a modern US/UK army fighting a badly equipped and undermotivated Iraqi army.

Basra was led by the UK not the US . Just look at the article you sent .


Also the US captured Baghdad which is over 420 miles from Kuwait in less than 3 weeks

It was a coalition force. But that only makes a worse comparison, since US/UK military is more effective than Russia's (combined presumably Belarus if they haven't yet intervened).

I won't fall into a time warp thinking that Russia 'lost' if it didn't conquer Ukraine in 48 hours while the coalition of the willing had a month or so to against a weaker opponent.

In that case, someone oughta tell Putin not to get so bent out of shape about how everything's going

For anybody interested, maybe time to do a "Let's do the Timewarp again". (Click at your own risk since it might forever warp your mind), but occasional levity is sometimes warranted in tough times)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umj0gu5nEGs&t=1s

[Mehmentum]

The thing with the invasion of Iraq was the coalition was being methodical and cautious to avoid causalities.  The coalition suffered 11 killed in the battle of Basra, 2 vehicles destroyed (friendly fire), nothing captured.  Very clear contrast to what's going on in Ukraine right now.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

But that's the issue: A city falling in less than a week of the invasion is falling quickly. The Battle of Basra in 2003 took two days short of three weeks, and, even granted the caveat that Basra is a large city, that was with a modern US/UK army fighting a badly equipped and undermotivated Iraqi army.

Basra was led by the UK not the US . Just look at the article you sent .


Also the US captured Baghdad which is over 420 miles from Kuwait in less than 3 weeks

It was a coalition force. But that only makes a worse comparison, since US/UK military is more effective than Russia's (combined presumably Belarus if they haven't yet intervened).

I won't fall into a time warp thinking that Russia 'lost' if it didn't conquer Ukraine in 48 hours while the coalition of the willing had a month or so to against a weaker opponent.

The logistics are a bit different when your doing your invasion on the opposite side of globe. This would be like the US struggling to take Tijuana.

[Thunder98]

Ukraine recalls the ambassadors from Georgia and Kyrgyzstan for "immoral behavior"

https://eurasianet.org/ukraine-recalls-ambassador-from-georgia

[NOVA Green]

Okay.. now time for a Human Interest Story courtesy of CNN:

"Ukrainian tennis star pledges to donate prize money to her country's army

Ukrainian tennis star Elina Svitolina defeated Russia's Anastasia Potapova at the Monterrey Open on Tuesday, pledging afterward to donate her prize money to the Ukrainian army.

After her win at the opening-round match in Monterrey, Mexico, Svitolina put her hand on her heart and waved to the crowd.

“I was on a mission for my country,” Svitolina said in an on-court interview of her performance, which drew a roar from the crowd.

She added that this was “a very special match for me and moment here ... I’m in a very sad mood, but I’m happy that I’m playing tennis here."

Svitolina, the No. 1 seed in the tournament, wore blue and yellow -- the colors of the Ukrainian flag -- on the court.

She had earlier refused to play Russian athletes. On Monday, she wrote in a social media post that she would not play any Russian or Belarusian players, and would forego today's match unless tennis organizations took action.

On Tuesday, the Association of Tennis Professionals, Women’s Tennis Association and International Tennis Federation released a joint statement announcing players from Russia and Belarus would be allowed to continue competing -- but only as neutral athletes, instead of under the flag of either country.
"





https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-01-22/h_79d5027808cee1d6b511cda994b163b2

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kherson has fallen

Kherson after heavy shelling
From CNN's Paul P. Murphy and Jake Tapper
(From Telegram)
(From Telegram)
The Russian military appears to have taken central Kherson, screenshots posted to social media and a video obtained by CNN show.

The screenshots from a webcam and the video have been geolocated, and their authenticity verified by CNN.

The video shows Russian military vehicles at a roundabout in northern Kherson on Tuesday. The screenshots from the webcam show Russian military vehicles parked on Svobody Square in central Kherson.

The Kherson Regional Administration building sits on Svobody Square.

Entering the city: On Tuesday, CNN reported that Russian military vehicles had been seen on the eastern side of the city after days of shelling and intense fighting.

The videos provide new evidence that the Russians are moving throughout Kherson, apparently unimpeded. It also shows that the Russian forces from Crimea have advanced and established a crossing across the Dnieper River.

Mayor's desperate plea: On Tuesday afternoon, Kherson Mayor Igor Kolykhaiev posted a stark message on Facebook, warning the city was under attack. "Residential buildings and urban facilities are burning," he wrote.

"We are NOT military! But I will hold the city and its functioning as long as I can," he wrote. “If the Russian soldiers and their leadership hear me. I ask: leave our city, stop shelling the civilians. You have already taken everything you wanted. Including human lives.”

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-01-22/index.html

The fact it took the Russians this long to capture a major city is a win for the Ukrainians. The Russians were relying on finishing the war quickly, and that was denied to them.

Yeah Russia was hoping to control the whole country in the time it took to get this. And wait till they deal with the insurgency it'll have now...

[Storebought]

The thing with the invasion of Iraq was the coalition was being methodical and cautious to avoid causalities.  The coalition suffered 11 killed in the battle of Basra, 2 vehicles destroyed (friendly fire), nothing captured.  Very clear contrast to what's going on in Ukraine right now.

That's the rub: it might not look like it to us, but Russis really is conscious about limiting civilian casualties in this campaign.

[It’s so Joever]

The thing with the invasion of Iraq was the coalition was being methodical and cautious to avoid causalities.  The coalition suffered 11 killed in the battle of Basra, 2 vehicles destroyed (friendly fire), nothing captured.  Very clear contrast to what's going on in Ukraine right now.

That's the rub: it might not look like it to us, but Russis really is conscious about limiting civilian casualties in this campaign.

Well looks like we don’t need to unmute BigSerg to see what Russian propaganda is saying after all.

[Storr]

Ukraine recalls the ambassadors from Georgia and Kyrgyzstan for "immoral behavior"

https://eurasianet.org/ukraine-recalls-ambassador-from-georgia

This quote humored me: "“Nobody is asking you [Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili] to become Zelenskiy, just shut up. Stop embarrassing us,” Ombudsman Nino Lomjaria wrote on Facebook."

[NOVA Green]

Ukraine recalls the ambassadors from Georgia and Kyrgyzstan for "immoral behavior"

https://eurasianet.org/ukraine-recalls-ambassador-from-georgia

Might want to rephrase since it sounds different from what's actually going on.

Ukraine has recalled their Ambassadors in protest against their perspective that both Governments have been being Putin's pawns in rejecting basic requests from Ukraine.

(Story tons more complex but the way you post it makes it sound like the Ukrainian Ambassadors were practicing "immoral behavior" (Doubt that was your intent, but wanted to ensure this was clarified).   

[Suburbia]

The people of Ukraine have my prayers......they need to fight back against the Russians and HARD.

However, NO U.S. ground troops should be in there. None.

Also, if any refugee comes here, let them be vetted properly.

[Splash]

The thing with the invasion of Iraq was the coalition was being methodical and cautious to avoid causalities.  The coalition suffered 11 killed in the battle of Basra, 2 vehicles destroyed (friendly fire), nothing captured.  Very clear contrast to what's going on in Ukraine right now.

That's the rub: it might not look like it to us, but Russis really is conscious about limiting civilian casualties in this campaign.

That's been the main question/concern for me the past 48 hours or so. It's clear the West is intent on applying the full barrage of sanctions and the Ukrainian resistance is hardening by the minute... so what purpose do these self-imposed limits serve?

In my opinion, I think the Russians are in a severely precious position regarding buy-in about the mission objective and that's impacting overall morale. It's clear that the Russian military leadership did not reveal the "true" mission to the rank and file until the 1-2 weeks prior to the invasion. Even then, from what I've heard, I believe the Russian officer corps 'justified' their "special operation" to their own conscripts as sort of a "peacekeeping" mission and that's how they procured overall subservience to the initial mission.

The problem with that approach is that it's hard to keep up these pretenses once you start leveling whole blocks of civilian apartments. What kind of "peacekeeping" mission is that? Mass desertion or revolt may occur if the Russian leadership decides to unleash their entire arsenal on their fellow Slavs.

Of course, I could be wrong. The Russian military have proven themselves incompetent time and time again over the past several days. I guess we'll have to wait and see unfortunately.  

[Storr]

The thing with the invasion of Iraq was the coalition was being methodical and cautious to avoid causalities.  The coalition suffered 11 killed in the battle of Basra, 2 vehicles destroyed (friendly fire), nothing captured.  Very clear contrast to what's going on in Ukraine right now.

That's the rub: it might not look like it to us, but Russis really is conscious about limiting civilian casualties in this campaign.

That's been the main question/concern for me the past 48 hours or so. It's clear the West is intent on applying the full barrage of sanctions and the Ukrainian resistance is hardening by the minute... so what purpose do these self-imposed limits serve?

In my opinion, I think the Russians are in a severely precious position regarding buy-in about the mission objective and that's impacting overall morale. It's clear that the Russian military leadership did not reveal the "true" mission to the rank and file until the 1-2 weeks prior to the invasion. Even then, from what I've heard, I believe the Russian officer corps 'justified' their "special operation" to their own conscripts as sort of a "peacekeeping" mission and that's how they procured overall subservience to the initial mission.

The problem with that approach is that it's hard to keep up these pretenses once you start leveling whole blocks of civilian apartments. What kind of "peacekeeping" mission is that? Mass desertion or revolt may occur if the Russian leadership decides to unleash their entire arsenal on their fellow Slavs.

Of course, I could be wrong. The Russian military have proven themselves incompetent time and time again over the past several days. I guess we'll have to wait and see unfortunately.  

I've had the same worry since it became clear this wouldn't be an easy victory to the Russians. In The First Chechen War, when the locals put up resistance the army responded by shelling the Grozny to the ground. Developments over the last 24 hours seem to indicate that's what is happening in Kharkiv.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498890606038425604?s=20&t=H0U4PCTKa...

[OSR stands with Israel]

But that's the issue: A city falling in less than a week of the invasion is falling quickly. The Battle of Basra in 2003 took two days short of three weeks, and, even granted the caveat that Basra is a large city, that was with a modern US/UK army fighting a badly equipped and undermotivated Iraqi army.

Basra was led by the UK not the US . Just look at the article you sent .


Also the US captured Baghdad which is over 420 miles from Kuwait in less than 3 weeks

It was a coalition force. But that only makes a worse comparison, since US/UK military is more effective than Russia's (combined presumably Belarus if they haven't yet intervened).

I won't fall into a time warp thinking that Russia 'lost' if it didn't conquer Ukraine in 48 hours while the coalition of the willing had a month or so to against a weaker opponent.

Kyiv is much closer to the Northern Russian Border than Baghdad was though and the coalition in OIF was trying to avoid causalities as well.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile since apparently it is after everyone's bedtime, looks like China just came out with it's hardest criticism yet of the Russian-Ukrainian situation.

(Night Night and bedtime Meclazine, we'll tuck you into a nice comfy bed and pillow, and your cat will sleep with you until the 2-3 AM Nocturnal "Cat Hours", but in the interim I am the one on the prowl

"China’s foreign minister says easing violence in Ukraine is top priority

By Eva Dou11:18 p.m.

China’s foreign minister expressed concern about the escalating violence against Ukraine in a Tuesday phone call with his Ukrainian counterpart, and said Beijing supported a political solution to the crisis.

“China deplores the outbreak of conflict between Ukraine and Russia, and is extremely concerned about the harm to civilians,” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said during the call with Dmytro Kuleba at the latter’s request, according to Chinese state broadcaster CCTV.

Kuleba also expressed Ukraine’s hope that China would mediate a cease-fire, according to CCTV.

Wang’s remarks represented some of the strongest China has made about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which Beijing has been loath to directly criticize. As Russia was preparing for the assault, Wang had called the Kremlin’s security concerns in Eastern Europe “legitimate.” China abstained from a U.N. Security Council vote last week that would have deplored Russia’s invasion.

During the call, Wang told Kuleba that the top priority was to ease the situation on the ground as much as possible, and to prevent the conflict from escalating or getting out of control. He urged Ukraine to ensure the safety of Chinese citizens.

...

"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/01/russia-ukraine-war-putin-news/#link-O7WKLSEGOZHYLLSLZSU2A3NDBM

Meanwhile this is the only cat on patrol.

[John Dule]

If anyone's interested, every episode of Servant of the People is on YouTube. It's a decent show; good production quality and Zelensky is a very charismatic and sympathetic lead.

Episode 1:

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1498866224125648898

A real international legion they're setting up. I hope these guys are well supplied and valued (i.e., not thrown into a meat grinder).

[Sorenroy]

I've been using this Atlas thread as my main source of news on what is happening live in the war between Russia and Ukraine (Thanks NOVA Green and everyone posting links to verified tweets!) because my normal news sources, mostly podcasts, tend to lag what is happening by as much of a day. I think that overall, besides a couple of trolls, that the insight of my fellow Atlasians has covered anything I might be able to add to the discussion too. However, today's episode of Vox's Today Explained added another perspective that maybe should've been clear but that I, at least, had missed.

For today's episode, "What Russians think of Putin's war," they interview Meduza investigative reporter Aleksey Kovalev. The whole interview is interesting, but what struck me the most was that Kovalev says around 21 minutes in that Russian state television is not allowed to tell people that there is conflict outside of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Russians that only consume news from the state media channels, they wouldn't be even aware that there is military action in Ukraine. So it's being sold to the public as this special operation to liberate - that's the word they're using - those newly independent regions of eastern Ukraine recognized as independent by Russia.

The state media only reports military clashes and confrontations in those breakaway republics because the operation is being sold to the public as liberation of those - you know - our fellows Russian speaking Ukrainians - our brothers - from the yolk of this Nazi junta. And I'm not exaggerating, this is the word they're using in those reports.

Again, this seems to be something reflected by many of the Russian soldiers and prisoners of war who, when tasked with invading Ukraine itself, would rather surrender or sabotage their own equipment. It seems like the fact that Russia is attacking the capital and other cities around the country is something Putin would like to keep completely secret to all but his inner circle. Even Lukashenko showed that massive map of Ukraine split four ways when he spoke earlier today (although I do not know the full context of who that was done for and who was able to see it).

Kovalev described the disconnect between what Russians are seeing on their news and feeling in their wallets as "...the struggle between your fridge and your TV set." His belief was that people will start asking questions as they feel the mounting pressure of sanctions from the West, which will probably also coincide with soldiers sending information back to their families that will undoubtedly leak. But, if Russia continues to try and stamp out opposition sources, imprison protestors, and impose strict requirements on state news, it makes me wonder how long it will take for those questions to be asked.

It also makes me wonder if the United States and/or others would attempt to break those state-run broadcasts. Ultimately, if the Russian people remain behind Putin, it will be difficult to change what's happening on the ground in Russia. I know that Anonymous has posted about briefly taking over a state television channel to broadcast the truth from Ukraine, but I wonder if there are plans for any larger-scale attempts.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

If anyone's interested, every episode of Servant of the People is on YouTube. It's a decent show; good production quality and Zelensky is a very charismatic and sympathetic lead.

Episode 1:

My roommate is four episodes in and enjoying it a lot.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1498866224125648898

A real international legion they're setting up. I hope these guys are well supplied and valued (i.e., not thrown into a meat grinder).

Somebody can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that they may very well be the first active Japanese soldiers in combat since August 1945 (or, to be pedantically specific, since Mr. Onoda returned to Japan)? IIRC, there were JSDF peacekeepers in Baghdad in '05, but I don't recall ever hearing of them in combat (but, of course, that doesn't eliminate the possibility).

[Storr]

The thing with the invasion of Iraq was the coalition was being methodical and cautious to avoid causalities.  The coalition suffered 11 killed in the battle of Basra, 2 vehicles destroyed (friendly fire), nothing captured.  Very clear contrast to what's going on in Ukraine right now.

That's the rub: it might not look like it to us, but Russis really is conscious about limiting civilian casualties in this campaign.

That's been the main question/concern for me the past 48 hours or so. It's clear the West is intent on applying the full barrage of sanctions and the Ukrainian resistance is hardening by the minute... so what purpose do these self-imposed limits serve?

In my opinion, I think the Russians are in a severely precious position regarding buy-in about the mission objective and that's impacting overall morale. It's clear that the Russian military leadership did not reveal the "true" mission to the rank and file until the 1-2 weeks prior to the invasion. Even then, from what I've heard, I believe the Russian officer corps 'justified' their "special operation" to their own conscripts as sort of a "peacekeeping" mission and that's how they procured overall subservience to the initial mission.

The problem with that approach is that it's hard to keep up these pretenses once you start leveling whole blocks of civilian apartments. What kind of "peacekeeping" mission is that? Mass desertion or revolt may occur if the Russian leadership decides to unleash their entire arsenal on their fellow Slavs.

Of course, I could be wrong. The Russian military have proven themselves incompetent time and time again over the past several days. I guess we'll have to wait and see unfortunately.  

I've had the same worry since it became clear this wouldn't be an easy victory to the Russians. In The First Chechen War, when the locals put up resistance the army responded by shelling the Grozny to the ground. Developments over the last 24 hours seem to indicate that's what is happening in Kharkiv.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498890606038425604?s=20&t=H0U4PCTKa...

Grozny 1994. Oh wait, this is Kharkiv today.

Google translation: "And this is already on fire the building of the sociological faculty of the Karazin National University, which was located across the street from the building of the Department of Internal Affairs. Kharkov"

https://twitter.com/Rospilll/status/1498911597040910337?s=20&t=xjbL0fpaKwiNL...

[GeneralMacArthur]

Very interesting statement on the war from GM Alexander Grischuk (Russian chess grandmaster).  I've always thought of Grischuk as being kind of a moron when it comes to politics, he gave some interview a decade or so ago where he said that 9/11 was fake and he seriously believes Tupac is still alive.  But this statement was very interesting and thought-provoking.

"I'm very sad, very pained with what is going on. I will not use the word 'war' because it's prohibited in our media, and I want them to be able to quote me. You know, I was... I would support Russia in.. I don't know, 99% of international conflicts, but this time I cannot manage to do this. In my view what we are doing is very wrong, from both moral and practical view. And maybe our government, our president, they think that if they stop what's going on they will have to resign... And maybe, if they really think about the future of Russia... They think that it will bring big shocks in Russia, maybe it will make Russia potentially break into pieces, some regions maybe get separated... Russia broke into pieces several times in its history but it always resurrected. Russia is like liquid terminator, it all comes together... If we know that the truth is on our side, if we're feeling that we're with the truth, with god, with justice. And now, at least me, I'm losing this feeling with every day of what's going on, with every victim, with every bombing of the civil objects. It's extremely painful for me, and I really hope it would stop."

This was delivered ad-hoc in an interview, and he was rudely interrupted by the interviewer in the middle, thus the messy syntax.

GM Dmitry Andreikin, also of Russia, was sitting next to him and looked awkward the entire time.  Although this may be due to the fact that Andreikin had just defeated Grischuk.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Very interesting statement on the war from GM Alexander Grischuk (Russian chess grandmaster).  I've always thought of Grischuk as being kind of a moron when it comes to politics, he gave some interview a decade or so ago where he said that 9/11 was fake and he seriously believes Tupac is still alive.  But this statement was very interesting and thought-provoking.

Chessmasters just seem to be very prone to conspiracy theories. EG, Gary Kasparov is both one of the leading lights of the Russian liberal opposition in exile and is into some really wacky stuff about how all history prior to the early medieval area was faked. Plus Bobby Fischer’s whole going completely bonkers thing.

Something about spending your life developing extreme pattern recognition skills.