Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Someone somewhere mentioned that Putin intended his blitzkrieg invasion of Ukraine as the 21st century version of the 1956 Suez Canal Crisis that would be to the United States what the original was to Britain and France.  Clearly his gambit has backfired big time, revealing it is Russia -and not the United States- that can no longer be regarded as a true global superpower.  

Unless of course you consider the nuclear weapons stockpile it inherited from the Soviet Union, but then again so do Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel...and they can hardly be considered 'superpowers' in any real sense of the term.  

After the collapse of the USSR, Russia lost it's superpower status. Russia is still a great power similar to Japan, Germany, France and the UK.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

No personal attacks, please!

He started it. And don’t pretend you’re unbiased, since you’re recommending all of his posts.

Well, if we're going down that road, none of us are really impartial, and I would be the first to admit that.
I am recommending those posts because I think Brazil has a right to follow a foreign policy that is in its self-interest, and I agree that a neutral policy makes sense for Brazil. In contrast, a reasoned anti-Russian strategy makes some sense for America.
Calling people tankies (Red Velvet is in fact too moderate to count as a tankie) is not very productive anyway.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Someone somewhere mentioned that Putin intended his blitzkrieg invasion of Ukraine as the 21st century version of the 1956 Suez Canal Crisis that would be to the United States what the original was to Britain and France.  Clearly his gambit has backfired big time, revealing it is Russia -and not the United States- that can no longer be regarded as a true global superpower. 

Unless of course you consider the nuclear weapons stockpile it inherited from the Soviet Union, but then again so do Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel...and they can hardly be considered 'superpowers' in any real sense of the term. 

After the collapse of the USSR, Russia lost it's superpower status. Russia is still a great power similar to Japan, Germany, France and the UK.

The problem with the Suez comparison is that Russia has NOT been treated as though it was an equal of the USSR, and is kind of trying to make it so that it is.
So it's very much reversed.

[Storr]

Someone somewhere mentioned that Putin intended his blitzkrieg invasion of Ukraine as the 21st century version of the 1956 Suez Canal Crisis that would be to the United States what the original was to Britain and France.  Clearly his gambit has backfired big time, revealing it is Russia -and not the United States- that can no longer be regarded as a true global superpower.  

Unless of course you consider the nuclear weapons stockpile it inherited from the Soviet Union, but then again so do Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel...and they can hardly be considered 'superpowers' in any real sense of the term.  

After the collapse of the USSR, Russia lost it's superpower status. Russia is still a great power similar to Japan, Germany, France and the UK.

You could make the argument that Russia is a regional power (Turkey, Italy, Brazil, Nigeria) that just happens to have nuclear weapons.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

In economic news the biggest beneficiary of the sanctions seems to be Bitcoin, which is up nearly 15% in a single day on almost unprecedented volume from both Ukraine and Russia. This sort of scenario is basically the ultimate use case for Bitcoin in both countries though; saving money from being seized by banks or rapidly devalued and putting it in a form that you can transport out of a wartorn country without getting robbed. While most markets have been in troubled waters the past few days the apocalypse portfolio of commodities, precious metals and cryptocurrency has been pretty much unmatched for returns. Small comfort compared to my cousins getting bombed and pushed back into poverty with crushing sanctions but you take what you can get.

https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1498355604301168640

Speaking of sanctions, not only ordinary Russians but Georgians, Armenians, Tajiks, Kazakhs, Kyrgyz and Uzbeks will pay the price for Putin's crimes as the poorer CIS countries are highly dependent on remittances from Russia. If they aren't able to work out alternatives (of which cryptocurrency is the most immediate) then we could see a crisis in Central Asia. The binary thinking of certain Westerners embodied in the people lecturing RV where anything short of the most extreme hawkishness is called "pro-Putin" will lead us all to catastrophe if not pushed back on.

https://twitter.com/sopjap/status/1498033040899117060

https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/1498075412194332673

In war news, some armed Ukrainians drove off looters

https://twitter.com/svtv_news/status/1498249740554747907

A tractor drove off with a Russian anti-air gun

https://twitter.com/svtv_news/status/1498272836636532740

and this person in Kharkiv found something they didn't expect in their living room

https://twitter.com/svtv_news/status/1498294403529678850

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Snip

While the war from Russia is along the lines of Iraq 2003, the behavior of many Western liberals closely tracks that of Bush-ite "stay the course" conservatives at the time.

[WMS]

No personal attacks, please!

He started it. And don’t pretend you’re unbiased, since you’re recommending all of his posts.

Well, if we're going down that road, none of us are really impartial, and I would be the first to admit that.
I am recommending those posts because I think Brazil has a right to follow a foreign policy that is in its self-interest, and I agree that a neutral policy makes sense for Brazil. In contrast, a reasoned anti-Russian strategy makes some sense for America.
Calling people tankies (Red Velvet is in fact too moderate to count as a tankie) is not very productive anyway.

And I object to the hypocrisy and self-righteousness of it as described by BV. Especially given how almost every country south of the U.S. in the Western Hemisphere supports the Western stance. Just sticking to this hemisphere, he is in the good company of Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Bolivia, Jair Bolsonaro, and Donald Trump. Great job!
I call ‘em like I see ‘em and have absolutely no desire to go easy on tankies or any stripe.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

No personal attacks, please!

He started it. And don’t pretend you’re unbiased, since you’re recommending all of his posts.

Well, if we're going down that road, none of us are really impartial, and I would be the first to admit that.
I am recommending those posts because I think Brazil has a right to follow a foreign policy that is in its self-interest, and I agree that a neutral policy makes sense for Brazil. In contrast, a reasoned anti-Russian strategy makes some sense for America.
Calling people tankies (Red Velvet is in fact too moderate to count as a tankie) is not very productive anyway.

And I object to the hypocrisy and self-righteousness of it as described by BV. Especially given how almost every country south of the U.S. in the Western Hemisphere supports the Western stance. Just sticking to this hemisphere, he is in the good company of Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Bolivia, Jair Bolsonaro, and Donald Trump. Great job!
I call ‘em like I see ‘em and have absolutely no desire to go easy on tankies or any stripe.

Feel free to be critical of people's governments for any stance they might have. That can easily be done while adhering to civility when referring to fellow posters.

[WMS]

No personal attacks, please!

He started it. And don’t pretend you’re unbiased, since you’re recommending all of his posts.

Well, if we're going down that road, none of us are really impartial, and I would be the first to admit that.
I am recommending those posts because I think Brazil has a right to follow a foreign policy that is in its self-interest, and I agree that a neutral policy makes sense for Brazil. In contrast, a reasoned anti-Russian strategy makes some sense for America.
Calling people tankies (Red Velvet is in fact too moderate to count as a tankie) is not very productive anyway.

And I object to the hypocrisy and self-righteousness of it as described by BV. Especially given how almost every country south of the U.S. in the Western Hemisphere supports the Western stance. Just sticking to this hemisphere, he is in the good company of Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Bolivia, Jair Bolsonaro, and Donald Trump. Great job!
I call ‘em like I see ‘em and have absolutely no desire to go easy on tankies or any stripe.

Feel free to be critical of people's governments for any stance they might have. That can easily be done while adhering to civility when referring to fellow posters.

Should’ve told BV that, then. I’m not going to let sneering and condescension go unanswered by a Putinist or their fellow travelers.

[2016]

You have all been wrong on the European Fighters supplied by Poland.
Ukrainian Pilots are Training at the 23rd Minsk Mazowieki Poland Air Base near Warszaw.

They are going to blow this big Russian Convoy North of Kyiv into little pieces.

[It’s so Joever]

In economic news the biggest beneficiary of the sanctions seems to be Bitcoin, which is up nearly 15% in a single day on almost unprecedented volume from both Ukraine and Russia. This sort of scenario is basically the ultimate use case for Bitcoin in both countries though; saving money from being seized by banks or rapidly devalued and putting it in a form that you can transport out of a wartorn country without getting robbed. While most markets have been in troubled waters the past few days the apocalypse portfolio of commodities, precious metals and cryptocurrency has been pretty much unmatched for returns. Small comfort compared to my cousins getting bombed and pushed back into poverty with crushing sanctions but you take what you can get.

https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1498355604301168640

Speaking of sanctions, not only ordinary Russians but Georgians, Armenians, Tajiks, Kazakhs, Kyrgyz and Uzbeks will pay the price for Putin's crimes as the poorer CIS countries are highly dependent on remittances from Russia. If they aren't able to work out alternatives (of which cryptocurrency is the most immediate) then we could see a crisis in Central Asia. The binary thinking of certain Westerners embodied in the people lecturing RV where anything short of the most extreme hawkishness is called "pro-Putin" will lead us all to catastrophe if not pushed back on.

https://twitter.com/sopjap/status/1498033040899117060

https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/1498075412194332673

In war news, some armed Ukrainians drove off looters

https://twitter.com/svtv_news/status/1498249740554747907

A tractor drove off with a Russian anti-air gun

https://twitter.com/svtv_news/status/1498272836636532740

and this person in Kharkiv found something they didn't expect in their living room

https://twitter.com/svtv_news/status/1498294403529678850

Its a shame Russia is doing all this. You know, if you want the sanctions to be over, maybe advocate for Putin to stop sending Russian teens to die in Ukraine for his own glory. It will be up to Russia whether they create a crisis in Central Asia, I hope they act responsibly.

[It’s so Joever]

You have all been wrong on the European Fighters supplied by Poland.
Ukrainian Pilots are Training at the 23rd Minsk Mazowieki Poland Air Base near Warszaw.

They are going to blow this big Russian Convoy North of Kyiv into little pieces.

Source?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1498477867382018049
https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1498477869936398340

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

...Small comfort compared to my cousins getting bombed and pushed back into poverty with crushing sanctions but you take what you can get.

Damn, I'm not sure if the words of a teenager on a political blog helps, but I sincerely wish that they stay safe and out of harm's way.

You have all been wrong on the European Fighters supplied by Poland.
Ukrainian Pilots are Training at the 23rd Minsk Mazowieki Poland Air Base near Warszaw.

They are going to blow this big Russian Convoy North of Kyiv into little pieces.

DO IT AGAIN BOMBER Harris ANDRIY

[It’s so Joever]

US officials believe a huge second wave of Russian soldiers who will be able to overwhelm the Ukrainian resistance is coming according to CNN.

[NOVA Green]

I sort of wonder if the Suez crisis felt a little like this in real time. On one hand, the stakes here are obviously higher due to the extreme irrationality of the aggressor power. On the other hand, at least in this case there was already a general sense among sane people that Russia's glory days were behind it, whereas my understanding of the events of 1956 was that many people still thought of Britain as a more or less equal partner to the USA and USSR until it tried to intervene in Egypt and got soundly thrashed by a bunch of pissed-off Arab nationalist boat pilots.

The Eisenhower Administration played a major role in this however by effectively forcing the British to pull out way early by creating a run on the British currency as a result of UK WW II debt to the US. 

This effectively forced England to pull out way early leaving the French (over whom we had no leverage) and the Israelis who had achieved their goal of taken the Eastern Bank of the Nile River to basically cease military activities short of the overthrow of the Nasser regime.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1498477867382018049
https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1498477869936398340

Finally

[2016]

You have all been wrong on the European Fighters supplied by Poland.
Ukrainian Pilots are Training at the 23rd Minsk Mazowieki Poland Air Base near Warszaw.

They are going to blow this big Russian Convoy North of Kyiv into little pieces.

Source?

Politico Website! They have an Article on that. I also have a friend who has a friend himself who is doing Maintanaince on that Base.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Someone somewhere mentioned that Putin intended his blitzkrieg invasion of Ukraine as the 21st century version of the 1956 Suez Canal Crisis that would be to the United States what the original was to Britain and France.  Clearly his gambit has backfired big time, revealing it is Russia -and not the United States- that can no longer be regarded as a true global superpower.  

Unless of course you consider the nuclear weapons stockpile it inherited from the Soviet Union, but then again so do Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel...and they can hardly be considered 'superpowers' in any real sense of the term.  

After the collapse of the USSR, Russia lost it's superpower status. Russia is still a great power similar to Japan, Germany, France and the UK.

You could make the argument that Russia is a regional power (Turkey, Italy, Brazil, Nigeria) that just happens to have nuclear weapons.

I’ve always assumed that a conventional conflict with Russia would be quite costly on the US/NATO side. (Infact, back in the Cold War the planners thought that the Red Army would quickly overrun continental Europe with sheer numbers, that’s why America never committed to no first use). After seeing the Ukraine operations, I doubt they fair much better than the Iraqis in the first Gulf War.

Obligatory disclaimer, nukes still means we should never, ever try it.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1498481505563250691?s=20&t=3Su7Cz_Weqa...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Someone somewhere mentioned that Putin intended his blitzkrieg invasion of Ukraine as the 21st century version of the 1956 Suez Canal Crisis that would be to the United States what the original was to Britain and France.  Clearly his gambit has backfired big time, revealing it is Russia -and not the United States- that can no longer be regarded as a true global superpower. 

Unless of course you consider the nuclear weapons stockpile it inherited from the Soviet Union, but then again so do Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel...and they can hardly be considered 'superpowers' in any real sense of the term. 

After the collapse of the USSR, Russia lost it's superpower status. Russia is still a great power similar to Japan, Germany, France and the UK.

You could make the argument that Russia is a regional power (Turkey, Italy, Brazil, Nigeria) that just happens to have nuclear weapons.

I’ve always assumed that a conventional conflict with Russia would be quite costly on the US/NATO side. (Infact, back in the Cold War the planners thought that the Red Army would quickly overrun continental Europe with sheer numbers, that’s why America never committed to no first use). After seeing the Ukraine operations, I doubt they fair much better than the Iraqis in the first Gulf War.

Obligatory disclaimer, nukes still means we should never, ever try it.

Beware, that Russia has not been fighting according to their training or typical tactics. In case we actually went to war with fought Russia, it would likely get very serious, very fast.

[Storr]

Interesting analysis, it does make sense that it doesn't matter how many tanks, trucks, and men Russia throws at Ukraine as long as their supply, logistics, strategy, morale, and communication problems continue to be this bad:

https://twitter.com/meekwire/status/1498481564379926533?s=20&t=2vEOUIidtJx3o...

https://twitter.com/meekwire/status/1498491027627429892?s=20&t=2vEOUIidtJx3o...

[It’s so Joever]

Interesting analysis, it does make sense that it doesn't matter how many tanks, trucks, and men Russia throws at Ukraine as long as their supply, logistics, strategy, morale, and communication problems continue to be this bad:

https://twitter.com/meekwire/status/1498481564379926533?s=20&t=2vEOUIidtJx3o...

https://twitter.com/meekwire/status/1498491027627429892?s=20&t=2vEOUIidtJx3o...

While I see that, I wonder whether Russia is learning from their past mistakes.

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

US officials believe a huge second wave of Russian soldiers who will be able to overwhelm the Ukrainian resistance is coming according to CNN.

This was bound to happen at some point. I guess we just have to wish that the resistance is able to keep some territory to operate out of and that the Ukrainians and the rest of the world can continue to make this as costly on Russia as possible.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Interesting analysis, it does make sense that it doesn't matter how many tanks, trucks, and men Russia throws at Ukraine as long as their supply, logistics, strategy, morale, and communication problems continue to be this bad:

https://twitter.com/meekwire/status/1498491027627429892?s=20&t=2vEOUIidtJx3o...

US officials believe a huge second wave of Russian soldiers who will be able to overwhelm the Ukrainian resistance is coming according to CNN.

This was bound to happen at some point. I guess we just have to wish that the resistance is able to keep some territory to operate out of and that the Ukrainians and the rest of the world can continue to make this as costly on Russia as possible.

Rather conflicting takes.

I guess we'll see which one pans out pretty soon