Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1496143838402035712

Good! This and the responses by both the US and EU are much more severe than they were in 2014. Especially how fast both sides have reacted. You just can be glad Biden is the president now, as it would not have been possible with the clown the preceded him.

What's also striking is that China has not voiced the usual support for Russia this time around. At the Munich Security Conference, the Chinese foreign minister even said something like an invasion was a violation of international rule (of course, the Chinese regime has an interest not to set any kind of precedent for separatist movements in Western parts of China).

For those wondering how Trump would have responded to this crisis, here is a window into that alternative universe:

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1496221147729481732

[Illiniwek]

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1496143838402035712

Good! This and the responses by both the US and EU are much more severe than they were in 2014. Especially how fast both sides have reacted. You just can be glad Biden is the president now, as it would not have been possible with the clown the preceded him.

What's also striking is that China has not voiced the usual support for Russia this time around. At the Munich Security Conference, the Chinese foreign minister even said something like an invasion was a violation of international rule (of course, the Chinese regime has an interest not to set any kind of precedent for separatist movements in Western parts of China).

For those wondering how Trump would have responded to this crises, here is a window into that alternative universe:

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1496221147729481732

What a dangerous dumb dumb.

[jojoju1998]

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1496143838402035712

Good! This and the responses by both the US and EU are much more severe than they were in 2014. Especially how fast both sides have reacted. You just can be glad Biden is the president now, as it would not have been possible with the clown the preceded him.

What's also striking is that China has not voiced the usual support for Russia this time around. At the Munich Security Conference, the Chinese foreign minister even said something like an invasion was a violation of international rule (of course, the Chinese regime has an interest not to set any kind of precedent for separatist movements in Western parts of China).

It's because Ukraine and China have a very productive economic partnership, they don't want to jeopardize chinese investments in Ukraine.

In fact, Ukraine depends heavily on Chinese investments.

[jaichind]

Good! This and the responses by both the US and EU are much more severe than they were in 2014. Especially how fast both sides have reacted. You just can be glad Biden is the president now, as it would not have been possible with the clown the preceded him.

What's also striking is that China has not voiced the usual support for Russia this time around. At the Munich Security Conference, the Chinese foreign minister even said something like an invasion was a violation of international rule (of course, the Chinese regime has an interest not to set any kind of precedent for separatist movements in Western parts of China).

Realistically the PRC is more concerned about separatism for my home province of Taiwan.  Northwest these days are pretty stable is very different from the more problematic  days of 2009-2013.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Equity markets and RUB surged after Biden's speech.  I guess the sanctions were less than what was feared by the markets.

I'm putting you on ignore until you shut up about currency speculators' hot takes and go back to posting about what's actually happening in the real world.

He is not [entirely] wrong, though.

Here's take by FT's Moscow bureau chief:

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1496207678334451718
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1496225863318261772

Imo, Germany's NS2 was the hardest (and imo least expected) sanctions so far. But if Russia takes over Ukraine, as Biden keeps insisting, there is no need of Nord Streams...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1496143838402035712

Good! This and the responses by both the US and EU are much more severe than they were in 2014. Especially how fast both sides have reacted. You just can be glad Biden is the president now, as it would not have been possible with the clown the preceded him.

What's also striking is that China has not voiced the usual support for Russia this time around. At the Munich Security Conference, the Chinese foreign minister even said something like an invasion was a violation of international rule (of course, the Chinese regime has an interest not to set any kind of precedent for separatist movements in Western parts of China).

For those wondering how Trump would have responded to this crisis, here is a window into that alternative universe:

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1496221147729481732

Yes. Trump's right that it wouldn't happen, were he in the WH.

[jaichind]

Won't Germany just burn more coal?

No. There's a misconception that this issue is about power generation,* but it's actually more about heating and especially domestic heating. So it would mean importing more gas from elsewhere and, over the long-term, moving towards alternative methods of domestic heating. This would have the effect of shrinking the market for Russian gas in Germany - putting that at risk for the sake of post-imperial adventurism is certainly a choice, but we are where we are.

_{*The nuclear angle is also misunderstood: Germany hasn't spontaneously shut down all its nuclear power stations, it has simply opted not to replace any of its existing ones. All of its nuclear power stations were (are) fairly old, with the newest - the ones still in operation - opening in 1988-9. In practice a lot of other governments have done the same thing, largely on cost grounds.}

Correct me if I am wrong.  In 2021 nuclear power from 6 nuclear plants provided for 13% of Germany energy needs.  3 of them were shut down end of 2021 and the other 3 will be shut down at the end of 2022. 

[MATTROSE94]

Are Iran and China sending troops into Ukraine to support Russia as well or not at this point?

[jaichind]

Of the sanctions the one that has the most bite is no trading of new Russian national debt.   The bank sancations mostly nominal in my view.  I think Russias have enough reserves and currency swaps with PRC to ride it out but if this one sticks aroind for a few years it will have an economic impact on Russia.   

[Torie]

Equity markets and RUB surged after Biden's speech.  I guess the sanctions were less than what was feared by the markets.

The sanctions so far were a nothing burger. Hopefully they ramp up fast. I do think Putin is going in for the kill, and "we" can't stop him. But "we" can isolate Russia economically, and so all we can to induce a regime change in Russia. Sure it might hurt our equity portfolios.  How much of yours as a percentage are you willing to give up in a punish Russia regime, assuming the ultimate "good" is not maximizing your net worth?

And where is Pervomaisk? Putting up names that even most of the uber map nerds here don't know is in my case elder abuse.

[StateBoiler]

Won't Germany just burn more coal?

No. There's a misconception that this issue is about power generation,* but it's actually more about heating and especially domestic heating. So it would mean importing more gas from elsewhere and, over the long-term, moving towards alternative methods of domestic heating. This would have the effect of shrinking the market for Russian gas in Germany - putting that at risk for the sake of post-imperial adventurism is certainly a choice, but we are where we are.

_{*The nuclear angle is also misunderstood: Germany hasn't spontaneously shut down all its nuclear power stations, it has simply opted not to replace any of its existing ones. All of its nuclear power stations were (are) fairly old, with the newest - the ones still in operation - opening in 1988-9. In practice a lot of other governments have done the same thing, largely on cost grounds.}

Correct me if I am wrong.  In 2021 nuclear power from 6 nuclear plants provided for 13% of Germany energy needs.  3 of them were shut down end of 2021 and the other 3 will be shut down at the end of 2022. 

That would be the German Green Party you can thank for making their country more heavily dependent on Russian-sourced energy. It would not surprise me if you dug into their finances you see some funds coming from Russia.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Are Iran and China sending troops into Ukraine to support Russia as well or not at this point?

Lmao

[Person Man]

Equity markets and RUB surged after Biden's speech.  I guess the sanctions were less than what was feared by the markets.

The sanctions so far were a nothing burger. Hopefully they ramp up fast. I do think Putin is going in for the kill, and "we" can't stop him. But "we" can isolate Russia economically, and so all we can to induce a regime change in Russia. Sure it might hurt our equity portfolios.  How much of yours as a percentage are you willing to give up in a punish Russia regime, assuming the ultimate "good" is not maximizing your net worth?

And where is Pervomaisk? Putting up names that even most of the uber map nerds here don't know is in my case elder abuse.

I think that’s it for now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

That would be the German Green Party you can thank for making their country more heavily dependent on Russian-sourced energy. It would not surprise me if you dug into their finances you see some funds coming from Russia.

Leaving the fact aside that I have been personally acquainted with the German Greens' last three treasurers, I would like to point out that Annalena Baerbock had always been vocally opposed to Nord Stream 2 and subject to Russian desinformation campaigns during the 2021 election (https://m.tagesspiegel.de/politik/russland-mischt-sich-in-wahlkampf-ein-gezielte-diffamierung-von-annalena-baerbock/27291998.html). That would make Russian foreign policy rather schizophrenic and self-defeating wouldn't it? Also, the current exit from nuclear energy was passed by a CDU/FDP government led by Angela Merkel in 2011 (the Greens weren't opposed to that decision though, of course).

While I would be willing to concede that it is a valid opinion to hold that a simultanous exit from nuclear, coal, and (particularly Russian) gas as the Greens are proposing it is unrealistic, you are starting to delve into conspiracy theories here that could be considered equally unrealistic, if not more so.

[MATTROSE94]

Are Iran and China sending troops into Ukraine to support Russia as well or not at this point?

Lmao

Iran and China sent in a small number troops during the first Russian incursions into Ukraine back in 2014, so they might do so again this time. Also Iran and China have mutual defense treaties with Russia and may act upon them if Russian troops are harmed by either Ukrainian or NATO forces.

[HillGoose]

Putin is such a prick

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't think so. I see a lot of people from other countries pointing fingers on Nord-Stream 2 and the gas dependence to be the roots of German appeasing approach towards Moscow. It surely is one of the reasons, but not the major one. German culture and mentality have by far the largest impact on its foreign policy.

 People learn from school to reject anything related to war. I, who went to school in Ukraine as well as in Germany, have noticed a great difference in the way history is brought to the students. German history books don't praise national heroes or military leaders. In fact even while describing wars the focus always seems to be NOT on generals and battles, but on suffering of simple people and on diplomatic efforts to solve the conflict.

It is also popular in german pop culture to mock the US and its militarism. Going to war to defend Ukraine in case of Russian attack isn't and has never been even an option here. In fact even speculating about any kind of military operation could mean a political suicide. As recent polls show, the majority of Germans even seem to oppose any new sanctions against Russia. In contrast people seem to prefer either a status quo, or even lifting current sanctions and making steps to reestablish a friendly relationship with russian government.

 Long story short: ignoring the social aspects and reducing the issue to just "Germany wants cheap russian gas" is stupid and won't help you to understand the motives.

Came across this interesting comment in a Youtube comment section, regarding the German government's seeming softness (trying to use a neutral descriptor here) on this issue.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I don't think so. I see a lot of people from other countries pointing fingers on Nord-Stream 2 and the gas dependence to be the roots of German appeasing approach towards Moscow. It surely is one of the reasons, but not the major one. German culture and mentality have by far the largest impact on its foreign policy.

 People learn from school to reject anything related to war. I, who went to school in Ukraine as well as in Germany, have noticed a great difference in the way history is brought to the students. German history books don't praise national heroes or military leaders. In fact even while describing wars the focus always seems to be NOT on generals and battles, but on suffering of simple people and on diplomatic efforts to solve the conflict.

It is also popular in german pop culture to mock the US and its militarism. Going to war to defend Ukraine in case of Russian attack isn't and has never been even an option here. In fact even speculating about any kind of military operation could mean a political suicide. As recent polls show, the majority of Germans even seem to oppose any new sanctions against Russia. In contrast people seem to prefer either a status quo, or even lifting current sanctions and making steps to reestablish a friendly relationship with russian government.

 Long story short: ignoring the social aspects and reducing the issue to just "Germany wants cheap russian gas" is stupid and won't help you to understand the motives.

Came across this interesting comment in a Youtube comment section, regarding the German government's seeming softness (trying to use a neutral descriptor here) on this issue.

While a lot of these points have merit - particularly the deep-rooted post-WWII pacifism which ironically is also a result of the denazification conducted by the Western allies - I would point out that recent opinion polling has showed that about half of my country does in fact support tougher economic sanctions against Russia, and there would be even a clearer majority on that one without the generally more pro-Russian eastern parts of Germany. The same opinion polling also shows that a definite majority of the German population opposes giving Russia weapons though, which is in fact a direct result of the aforementioned pacifism (that was pre-Donbass recognition though, don't know how the numbers would look like right now).

[Frodo]

I don't think so. I see a lot of people from other countries pointing fingers on Nord-Stream 2 and the gas dependence to be the roots of German appeasing approach towards Moscow. It surely is one of the reasons, but not the major one. German culture and mentality have by far the largest impact on its foreign policy.

 People learn from school to reject anything related to war. I, who went to school in Ukraine as well as in Germany, have noticed a great difference in the way history is brought to the students. German history books don't praise national heroes or military leaders. In fact even while describing wars the focus always seems to be NOT on generals and battles, but on suffering of simple people and on diplomatic efforts to solve the conflict.

It is also popular in german pop culture to mock the US and its militarism. Going to war to defend Ukraine in case of Russian attack isn't and has never been even an option here. In fact even speculating about any kind of military operation could mean a political suicide. As recent polls show, the majority of Germans even seem to oppose any new sanctions against Russia. In contrast people seem to prefer either a status quo, or even lifting current sanctions and making steps to reestablish a friendly relationship with russian government.

 Long story short: ignoring the social aspects and reducing the issue to just "Germany wants cheap russian gas" is stupid and won't help you to understand the motives.

Came across this interesting comment in a Youtube comment section, regarding the German government's seeming softness (trying to use a neutral descriptor here) on this issue.

While a lot of these points have merit - particularly the deep-rooted post-WWII pacifism which ironically is also a result of the denazification conducted by the Western allies - I would point out that recent opinion polling has showed that about half of my country does in fact support tougher economic sanctions against Russia, and there would be even a clearer majority on that one without the generally more pro-Russian eastern parts of Germany. The same opinion polling also shows that a definite majority of the German population opposes giving Russia weapons though, which is in fact a direct result of the aforementioned pacifism (that was pre-Donbass recognition though, don't know how the numbers would look like right now).

You mean Ukraine?

[GeneralMacArthur]

Russia recognized the independence of Ukraine shortly after 90%+ of Ukrainians voted for independence in the 1991 referendum.  In the Budapest Memorandum, Russia guaranteed the security and territorial integrity of Ukraine.

So yes, it should exist, even if we are just going by Russian considerations, for which there is absolutely no justification anyway.  The rest of the world -- and certainly Putin's victims in Ukraine -- need not be hostage to Russia's own delusions of empire.  Russia has no right to Ukraine, plain and simple, regardless of Putin's false pretensions or weak excuses for ignoring his own state's previous agreements.

If Russia thinks Ukrainian independence was never an agreement, then Ukraine ought to counter that surrendering their nuclear stockpile was never an agreement, and we can just have a nuclear war in Eastern Europe.  Putin's decision to take advantage of Ukraine's 1994 decision to return their Soviet-era nukes will be cited for decades to come by small nations with nuclear programs as justification for refusing to surrender their own stockpiles.  I mean good luck getting Pakistan to give up their nukes now that they've seen what happened to Ukraine.  Who's to say India won't simply tear up any signed treaty 25 years later and re-annex Pakistan?  If the world allows Putin to get away with this with little consequences then it's a perfectly reasonable fear.

[Vosem]

There are actually lots of states which shouldn’t exist on some level because the borders are strange or illogical (basically everyone in Africa). Nevertheless, they already do, and we fought a whole World War from 1939-45 to defend the principle that country borders are inviolate even when illogical. This principle has since stopped enormous conflicts and protected millions of lives.

So the correct answer here is “doesn’t matter; it does”.

(This is an interesting question to ask about unrecognized entities, like — to name a spectrum — Taiwan or Palestine or Kosovo or the DNR/LNR. But of course Ukraine, a universally recognized UN member, does exist and therefore has a right to.)

[GeneralMacArthur]

Could we get a megathread/tracker for announced sanctions against Russia?  Feels like countries are announcing new sanctions every hour or so and it's tough to keep up.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If Putin wants to recreate the Russian Empire, he should start not by invading the Ukraine, but by resigning to make way for the restoration of the Romanovs.

[GeneralMacArthur]

If Putin wants to recreate the Russian Empire, he should start not by invading the Ukraine, but by resigning to make way for the restoration of the Romanovs.

BEND THE KNEE

[Velasco]

That would be the German Green Party you can thank for making their country more heavily dependent on Russian-sourced energy. It would not surprise me if you dug into their finances you see some funds coming from Russia.

Leaving the fact aside that I have been personally acquainted with the German Greens' last three treasurers, I would like to point out that Annalena Baerbock had always been vocally opposed to Nord Stream 2 and subject to Russian desinformation campaigns during the 2021 election (https://m.tagesspiegel.de/politik/russland-mischt-sich-in-wahlkampf-ein-gezielte-diffamierung-von-annalena-baerbock/27291998.html). That would make Russian foreign policy rather schizophrenic and self-defeating wouldn't it? Also, the current exit from nuclear energy was passed by a CDU/FDP government led by Angela Merkel in 2011 (the Greens weren't opposed to that decision though, of course).

While I would be willing to concede that it is a valid opinion to hold that a simultanous exit from nuclear, coal, and (particularly Russian) gas as the Greens are proposing it is unrealistic, you are starting to delve into conspiracy theories here that could be considered equally unrealistic, if not more so.

I think Angela Merkel adopted her decision on power nuclear exit after the Fukushima accident, which caused an understandable wave of concern in public opinion. On the other hand, the European Commission recently adopted the decision to declare gas and nuclear power sustainable. Such declaration has been labeled as "greenwashing". I'd like to remark nevertheless the highly positive influence of the German Greens in public opinion, to the point a centre-right politician like Ursula von der Leyen states her great sensibility on climate action and environment

https://www.dw.com/en/european-commission-declares-nuclear-and-gas-to-be-green/a-60614990

European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen cannot repeat often enough how close stepping up climate action is to her heart.

She described the European Green Deal as "Europe's man on the moon moment." She has called climate neutrality "our European destiny." And she solemnly proclaimed that no effort will be spared for Europe to become the world's first continent with net-zero emissions.

But as often, the devil is in the detail (...)  

Of course the devil is in the detail, because "lower carbon emissions" is not neccessarilly equivalent to "sustainable energy". While it's legitimate to discuss whether nuclear power and gas can be used as "transitional" sources, declaring them "sustainable" is as misleading as talking about "Green Capitalism"

Regarding collusions between German politicians and Russian interests,  I think targeting the German Greens is incredibly dumb and misguided. You don't need too much research to find out that, after exiting chancellorship, Gerhard Schroeder started a succesful career as Gazprom lobbyst