Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

So the descriptions (I can find an English language source) of the Russian the ‘proposal’ is reminding me of nothing so much as Chamberlain’s proposal to the Boers or the Australian-Hungarian ultimatum. A laundry list of demands the other side can’t meet in the period, designed to be rejected right before a war starts.

[StateBoiler]

So the descriptions (I can find an English language source) of the Russian the ‘proposal’ is reminding me of nothing so much as Chamberlain’s proposal to the Boers or the Australian-Hungarian ultimatum. A laundry list of demands the other side can’t meet in the period, designed to be rejected right before a war starts.

If the Kremlin are "we're getting this concession or we'll take action", there's nothing NATO can do to stop them unless they're willing to deploy troops and/or material. Hard power beats soft power almost every time. We established years ago financial sanctions are limited in their effects (aren't they still under sanctions from Crimea 7 years ago?).

[nicholas.slaydon]

So the descriptions (I can find an English language source) of the Russian the ‘proposal’ is reminding me of nothing so much as Chamberlain’s proposal to the Boers or the Australian-Hungarian ultimatum. A laundry list of demands the other side can’t meet in the period, designed to be rejected right before a war starts.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1472252249019764739?t=S1uPj_Dyt7zIfoZVpkEm...

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1472284276771201031?s=20

[Agonized-Statism]

So has the Atomic War started yet?

[Hnv1]

I have money on ground action starting before novy god, come on speed things up Putin.

[CumbrianLefty]

So has the Atomic War started yet?

Its always just around the corner, don'tcha know?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

This is why European states are keen to avoid sanctions on Russia...

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1472553090024984580?s=20

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1472841819834753028?t=dPwYZ8v0Qynrbe_V7sZTM...

[StateBoiler]

This is why European states are keen to avoid sanctions on Russia...

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1472553090024984580?s=20

Why are certain states on that map just removed?

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1472975076639268873?s=20

[AZdude]

I've read through these threads and I just can't wrap my head around what Putin's endgame is, so I'd love to hear your thoughts.

China-Taiwan in comparison seems simple.  China wants to annex Taiwan, the only question is whether or not they can do it militarily and/or handle the consequences.

But what does Russia want?  The consensus (sorry Andriy) seems to be that Ukraine will get slaughtered in a war with Russia. 

-Tear off more Ukrainian territory?  Make the Sea of Azov a Russian lake?  Most people I've read seem to think that's the most likely scenario.  But paradoxically, it would just make the rest of Ukraine even more anti-Russian and pro-NATO, and make the rest of NATO far more amenable to letting them join.

-Install a pro-Russian puppet in Kiev?  I can't imagine large chunks of Ukraine, especially in the West, supporting that.

-Annex Ukraine entirely?  The same thing goes for West Ukraine times 100.  Also, this seems by far the most likely scenario to bring NATO intervention.

Have Ukrainians ever heard of the concept of "addition by subtraction"?  As much as it might hurt their pride, maybe they should consider letting TRULY-pro-Russian areas of the country go, if it lets them salvage the rest of the country and takes the boundary-dispute roadblock out of NATO membership.  But that also might cause too much economic damage to the country - I certainly plead guilty to not being terribly educated on the matter.

Please don't come at me too hard, I usually read instead of posting, but I really wanted to hear the thoughts of people closer to the situation than I am.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I've read through these threads and I just can't wrap my head around what Putin's endgame is, so I'd love to hear your thoughts.

Make West accept that [Putin's] Russia cannot exist without Ukraine [in its orbit]. By all means necessary.

[StateBoiler]

I've read through these threads and I just can't wrap my head around what Putin's endgame is, so I'd love to hear your thoughts.

China-Taiwan in comparison seems simple.  China wants to annex Taiwan, the only question is whether or not they can do it militarily and/or handle the consequences.

But what does Russia want?  The consensus (sorry Andriy) seems to be that Ukraine will get slaughtered in a war with Russia.  

-Tear off more Ukrainian territory?  Make the Sea of Azov a Russian lake?  Most people I've read seem to think that's the most likely scenario.  But paradoxically, it would just make the rest of Ukraine even more anti-Russian and pro-NATO, and make the rest of NATO far more amenable to letting them join.

-Install a pro-Russian puppet in Kiev?  I can't imagine large chunks of Ukraine, especially in the West, supporting that.

-Annex Ukraine entirely?  The same thing goes for West Ukraine times 100.  Also, this seems by far the most likely scenario to bring NATO intervention.

My reading of the situation and what I've seen kind of hinted at in the past 7 to 8 years of reporting is the Russians are fine with Ukraine as is if it was a Russia-friendly president. If the president is not Russia-friendly and pro-NATO/pro-EU, that's a security risk as the Russians see it that is not acceptable. I don't see any situation as long as it exists where the Ukrainian masses will accept a pro-Russian puppet and I don't think it's worth the heartache to the Russians to annex Ukraine in whole. If we do get military conflict, I see this going like the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, Russia will push forward, make their point, stop short of the capital, and then withdraw to the territorial gains they're happy with keeping. In Georgia that was Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In Ukraine, that's probably Donetsk and Luhansk, maybe a little more...as well as Crimea which they already have. The territory in eastern Ukraine they take will be their pro-Russian buffer. Part of their end game could be international recognition of Crimea is part of Russia (meaning this is something Ukraine would have to agree to for the international community to accept) although like I've said before, they already have Crimea, so they're not giving up anything to get that result.

Crimea to me was the Russians calling Von Rompuy's bluff where Von Rompuy stated in a speech Ukraine has an EU future, and the Russians not a week later went in and took Crimea without firing a shot. Where was Von Rompuy's EU in response? Nowhere to be found. The European states militarily are quite the paper tiger. So if you threaten them with the possibility of military conflict, all signs are they are going to run away as fast as they can. It also doubles the purpose of what Putin wants to make clear about the EU and NATO to the Eastern Europeans: you get attacked by Russia, they're not going to come help you. No one ever came and helped Georgia. No one stopped the Russian annexation of Crimea. Is anyone going to help Ukraine here if guns start shooting? Biden's not sending troops there, not with this Democratic Party and after Afghanistan.

Western states want to stop any conflict from occurring, start placing soldiers and equipment in Ukraine (while still doing diplomatic negotiations). That placement of assets and troops changes the calculus of the situation immediately and increases Russian risk on doing anything. But I don't think any of the leaders have a desire to do so, and I'm very confident Putin knows that.

Have Ukrainians ever heard of the concept of "addition by subtraction"?  As much as it might hurt their pride, maybe they should consider letting TRULY-pro-Russian areas of the country go, if it lets them salvage the rest of the country and takes the boundary-dispute roadblock out of NATO membership.  But that also might cause too much economic damage to the country - I certainly plead guilty to not being terribly educated on the matter.

That's quite the precedent (consider all the other "pro-Russian areas" in the former Soviet Union) and quite Sudetanlandish.

[Senator Spark]

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1472975076639268873?s=20

I saw a headline the other day that I thought was absurd. "Putin has still not made up his mind on whether to invade Ukraine". What I truly don't understand is how we can wait while Putin makes up his mind about invading Ukraine. This isn't a game of chess we are playing and lives are at stake. Not sure what is being done about this 1939 replication here but the US must take any threat of an offensive to an ally seriously. Ukraine, while not part of NATO and its solemn obligation to defend, is still worthy of support.

Now, I am not suggesting we get involved militarily with this dispute unless it threatens U.S. assets, but I do think it warrants an international condemnation at the UN, massive economic sanctions, and moving forward with a united front in Europe. We need to encourage our European allies in NATO to begin preparations to deter a Russian invasion.

We have to understand the mind of the mastermind behind this whole thing. Putin, an ex KGB officer, wants to remake Europe into the mold of the Cold War era when the USSR was at its peak. It can't happen. It is the pure representation of imperialism, plain and simple. It seems he knows his time is running out and that he may have to step down soon. So his plan, ostensibly, is to throw the kitchen sink at NATO and the West. Better yet, this flagrant violation of international law will likely come with praise from China, who is another story and lost cause. This situation seems to have brought Russia and China together to ally against the US.

We need to stop Putin before it gets worse.

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1472975076639268873?s=20

I saw a headline the other day that I thought was absurd. "Putin has still not made up his mind on whether to invade Ukraine". What I truly don't understand is how we can wait while Putin makes up his mind about invading Ukraine. This isn't a game of chess we are playing and lives are at stake. Not sure what is being done about this 1939 replication here but the US must take any threat of an offensive to an ally seriously. Ukraine, while not part of NATO and its solemn obligation to defend, is still worthy of support.

I'll state I agree that the West and the Western media have been way too leisurely about "all signs are Russia will have a winter-to-spring offensive".

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1473275395466162176?t=2xL_Dqq8t2wPKuB6c...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1473275395466162176?t=2xL_Dqq8t2wPKuB6c...

Russia is a vast land, yet there is nowhere to retreat – Moscow is behind us!

Велика Россия, а отступать некуда — позади Москва!

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1473252813773975554?t=Ggbm3uI19R3kar3vz...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.ft.com/content/5e5e9624-b7d7-4c11-bc12-4078a6d293bb
US plans talks with Russia to find diplomatic route to ease Ukraine tensions
Putin warns that Moscow is ready to use ‘military-technical measures’ to counter ‘hostile’ Nato

The US expects to start talks with Russia in January over Moscow’s demands for sweeping European security guarantees, in a bid to find a diplomatic route to ease tensions over Ukraine.

Russia has deployed about 100,000 troops on its border with Ukraine, sparking western fears of a possible invasion. Moscow has demanded that Nato and the US cut their presence in eastern Europe and President Vladimir Putin warned on Tuesday that Russia was prepared to use its military against what he called a growing threat from Nato.

Washington plans to open bilateral talks with Moscow on the security proposals next month, Karen Donfried, US assistant secretary of state, said on Tuesday, despite widespread alarm among EU and Nato member states that many of the demands are impossible and would weaken the western military alliance.

“We are prepared to discuss those proposals that Russia put on the table. There are some things that we are prepared to work on, and that we do believe there is merit in having a discussion,” Donfried told reporters. “There are other things in those documents that the Russians know will be unacceptable.”

Donfried said the date of talks would be agreed with Moscow, but that they would run alongside talks between Russia and Nato and inside the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). Nato member states are meeting on Tuesday to discuss possible formats for talks with Russia, she said, and the OSCE had also begun preparations.

“Let me be clear: there will be no talks on European security without Europe,” she added, in a nod to concerns among some eastern European states that Washington and Moscow could discuss their security over their heads. “The key here is alliance unity and alliance cohesion.”

Putin told a group of senior military officers on Tuesday that the Kremlin was “seriously concerned” about Nato deployments near the country’s borders and the possibility of it having hypersonic weapons in Ukraine that could strike Moscow in less than 10 minutes.

“If our western colleagues continue this clearly aggressive stance, we will take appropriate military-technical measures in response and react harshly to hostile steps,” Putin said, according to state newswire RIA Novosti. “And I want to stress that we are within our rights to do what is required to ensure Russia’s security and sovereignty.”

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1473322559190048772

Gas price is going up 30% to $2,150 per 1000 cubic meter. 15 times more than US pays...

Winter is coming! Can't help Ukraine, if you has been frozen to death.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1473252813773975554?t=Ggbm3uI19R3kar3vz...

Came here to post this

And also this is very bad

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1473274123681992706

[😥]

I've read through these threads and I just can't wrap my head around what Putin's endgame is, so I'd love to hear your thoughts.

China-Taiwan in comparison seems simple.  China wants to annex Taiwan, the only question is whether or not they can do it militarily and/or handle the consequences.

But what does Russia want?  The consensus (sorry Andriy) seems to be that Ukraine will get slaughtered in a war with Russia. 

-Tear off more Ukrainian territory?  Make the Sea of Azov a Russian lake?  Most people I've read seem to think that's the most likely scenario.  But paradoxically, it would just make the rest of Ukraine even more anti-Russian and pro-NATO, and make the rest of NATO far more amenable to letting them join.

-Install a pro-Russian puppet in Kiev?  I can't imagine large chunks of Ukraine, especially in the West, supporting that.

-Annex Ukraine entirely?  The same thing goes for West Ukraine times 100.  Also, this seems by far the most likely scenario to bring NATO intervention.

Have Ukrainians ever heard of the concept of "addition by subtraction"?  As much as it might hurt their pride, maybe they should consider letting TRULY-pro-Russian areas of the country go, if it lets them salvage the rest of the country and takes the boundary-dispute roadblock out of NATO membership.  But that also might cause too much economic damage to the country - I certainly plead guilty to not being terribly educated on the matter.

Please don't come at me too hard, I usually read instead of posting, but I really wanted to hear the thoughts of people closer to the situation than I am.

First, you don't have to apologize for anything.

Second, there are no fully pro-Russian regions. Yes, the East and the South are Russian-speaking, but even there the vast majority of the population wants to live in Ukraine. Yes, there is much less support for NATO and the EU there, but there is no desire to be part of Russia.

Third, as StateBoiler has said, it will set a dangerous precedent everywhere and will greatly strengthen separatist movements in Europe.

Fourth, even if we assume the hypothetical surrender of the South and the East, it will be a huge damage to Ukraine's economy. The South and the East are predominantly industrial areas, of which the state budget receives a significant share. The South is also a tourist area, millions of tourists go there to swim in the sea every year, including foreigners, which also brings significant income to the budget.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Andy_Scollick/status/1473726831102730256?s=20