Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Supposedly another huge battle near Orikhiv again. Happening right now.

Broken clocks still work at least twice a day...

Well done Grasshopper as Master Po once said:

No, grasshopper, evil cannot be conquered in the world. It can only be resisted within oneself.

Beginning on Thursday, Russian pro-war bloggers and the Russian military reported that Ukraine had unsuccessfully attempted an advance a few miles east of Orikhiv, near the village of Mala Tokmachka.

Images posted by a Ukrainian brigade and verified by The Times show that Ukrainian troops were on foot in Lobkove, a settlement west of Orikhiv.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/09/world/europe/ukraine-russia-battle-zaporizhzhia.html

Ukraine was also looking to advance in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region, which Russian forces have spent months fortifying with mines and trenches. Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said Russian troops were “actively on the defense” around Orikhiv, a small city 60 miles northeast of Melitopol, the capital of the Russian-occupied region.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/09/ukraine-counteroffensive-zaporizhzhia-donetsk-floods-kherson/

Sure, there will be significant Ukrainian (as well as Russian casualties), including loss and damages of equipment as part of an initial "probing attempt" to try to find the weakest links within key areas of the Frontlines.

ISW has a few updates from less than an hour ago.

Unfortunately Microsoft in their infinite wisdom appears to have disabled temporarily the traditional "Snip App", otherwise would post "Blow Up Ukraine Maps".... still there do appear to be some breakthroughs on various areas of the massive front line.

Key question is when and where will Ukraine choose to invest significant resources to attempt massive breakthroughs.

Meanwhile Ukraine is burning through tons of highly precise US and UK supplies shells to hit deep behind the frontlines for maximum impact, while there are likely at least (9) Battalions available with significant NATO training and gear / kit waiting to exploit any significant breakthrough for maximum gain.

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1667352129735106565?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile in an attempt to be "Fair and Balanced"...

Benjamin has geolocated the location where Ukraine lost or abandoned a tank or two and maybe a couple Bradleys...

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1667169777947754496?s=20

We all cool? Time to roll on...

Na dann, weiter geht's.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile Ukrainian "Tractors in the Sky" are repurposing Russian Drones:

Welcome Ladies and Gentleman to the some sort of weird Star Wars spinoff from "Attack of the Clones", where now we have "Drone Wars".

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1667266237036994569?s=20

Now meanwhile, Ukrainian "Ghost Riders in the Sky", which for those of you not familiar with the history of classic "Old Country" from back in the dayz, could well be perceived if viewed artistically as a perspective from those being invaded resisting the invaders seizing and conquering their lands.

[Hindsight was 2020]

What really matters here is what Ukraine ends up accomplishing over the next month or two. Vuhledar was a disaster for the Russians because they kept sending columns of armor to certain destruction with nothing to show for it in the end, and didn't seem to learn anything each time. If Ukraine keeps repeating mistakes and doesn't get anything for their losses, then yea, that would be bad.

The reality here is that Ukraine has to successfully assault and overtake complex fortifications guarded by minefields, obstacles and soldiers with heavy weapons. This is what happens when the decision to fully equip new units for a large counter-offensive only happens after devastating Russian losses in 2022, which gave Russia months and months to conduct a partial mobilization, dig in and heavily fortify the front line. If Ukraine was similarly equipped last Fall, they would have easily had the resources to retake much more territory. Now they have to do it the hard and bloody way.

FWIW, even well-trained armies like the US aren't immune to costly mistakes that accomplish nothing:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_attack_on_Karbala

Of the 29 returning Apaches, all but one suffered serious damage. On average, each Apache had 15-20 bullet holes. One Apache took 29 hits. Sixteen main rotor blades, six tail blades, six engines, and five drive shafts were damaged beyond repair. In one squadron only a single helicopter was fit to fly. It took a month until the 11th Regiment was ready to fight again. The casualties sustained by the Apaches induced a change of tactics by placing significant restrictions on their use.[12] Attack helicopters would henceforth be used to reveal the location of enemy troops, allowing them to be destroyed by artillery and air strikes.[3]

While the offensive should be successful I do wonder if Ukraine could have instead made the big counterattack on the Svatove-Kreminna line. From what has been reported over the past few months Russia withdrew men and resources in the area for Bakhmut and preparing the counterattack while not building anywhere near the defensive fortifications as seen down around Tokamak for example. So they could have been hyping a counterattack in Zaporizhzhia and then use the new western trained brigades and weapons to build up a lopsided numerical advantage and blitz the thinner lines up north again like Kharkiv. I get the temptation of splitting the Russian lines in half by attacking Zaporizhzhia but taking Svatove and Kreminna would lead to the recapture of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk and then if the orcs really panic push all the way to Starobil's'k. Which would destroy Russian logistics as it would cut off the railroad system coming out of Russia that they use to supply the entire front.

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/08/biden-ukraine-counteroffensive-00101088

"White House anxiously watches Ukraine’s counteroffensive, seeing the war and Biden’s reputation at stake"

[Pericles]

[Woody]

Zaporizhzhia

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1667321094083158017
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1667367152314114049

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-09/pentagon-commits-2-1-billion-more-to-bolster-ukraine-s-long-term-defenses

"Pentagon Commits $2.1 Billion More to Bolster Ukraine’s Long-Term Defenses"

But much of the equipment announced Friday won’t be delivered for months — or possibly years — because it will have to be put under contract and produced, unlike the Presidential Drawdown Authority that is providing weapons from US inventories for more immediate battlefield impact.

I guess since the war will now go on indefinitely this will make a meaningful impact years from now when it is likely some version of the conflict will still be ongoing.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/warfrontline/status/1667426768746172418?s=12

[CumbrianLefty]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/08/biden-ukraine-counteroffensive-00101088

"White House anxiously watches Ukraine’s counteroffensive, seeing the war and Biden’s reputation at stake"

Well they are hardly likely to be watching it indifferently, you would have thought.

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/08/biden-ukraine-counteroffensive-00101088

"White House anxiously watches Ukraine’s counteroffensive, seeing the war and Biden’s reputation at stake"

Well they are hardly likely to be watching it indifferently, you would have thought.

Of course. What is interesting is the point of the article that Biden's reputation is at stake. 

[SnowLabrador]

This is yet another example of Biden having to clean up Trump's mess. Trump helped cause this war.

[jaichind]

https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/ukraine-krieg-russen-kaempfen-besser-als-erwartet-84267646.bild.html



Bild: "Russians fight better than expected"

Bild next to be banned from Ukraine?

[Lord Halifax]

Bild next to be banned from Ukraine?

don't you ever get tired of all that lame trolling?

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/andrewperpetua/status/1667527751761375234?s=12
https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1667487327646523393?s=12
https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1667532057176670208?s=12
https://twitter.com/kardinal691/status/1667523706568990720?s=12
There’s definitely a positive mood coming out from Ukraine today and from general OSINT though they’re still tight lipped on the details 😗

[NOVA Green]

Favorable development if true...

https://twitter.com/ArielJestJeden/status/1667437624892465153?s=20

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/andrewperpetua/status/1667527751761375234?s=12
https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1667487327646523393?s=12
https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1667532057176670208?s=12
https://twitter.com/kardinal691/status/1667523706568990720?s=12
There’s definitely a positive mood coming out from Ukraine today and from general OSINT though they’re still tight lipped on the details 😗

I’d assert my dominance on a Russian flag.

[Storr]

obligatory Julian Röpcke meme

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1667619094835744772?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1667625236332793859?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/MaximEdwards/status/1667474142520569856?s=20

https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/1667522816927756292?s=20

[Woody]

Certain users here should be patient about saying what is what. Lobkove was never mentioned in the General Staff.

That tweet was just a flat out lie, and that guy was caught lying again by even Reddit for mentioning some bogus about the Russian defensive lines.

Rule of thumb: If you're going to claim a settlement/village/city has flipped over to a certain side, wait for geo-locations where you see troops can walk freely, or if confirmations have been made by both sides (DeepStateUA). That you see a couple of armored vehicles in a certain place does not mean it's taken over. Usually both sides enter a grey-zone, stay there for a few hours, either they A: Dig in, or B: Retreat back to it's previous positions and assault another time.

It's very frustrating, especially now that we're entering the counteroffensive phase, where there's bound to a lot of misinfo. I think everyone here should wait and be patient (which ironically even the AFU is saying too).

[Storr]

(Last post of my flood.)

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1667568838647640064?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1667631858312519680?s=12
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1667631864004132869?s=12
Interesting 🧐

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1667648741740892161?s=12

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1667662603579957248https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1667662878348922892https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1667663350212198401https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1667648741740892161