Canada Federal Representation 2024

[Poirot]

Has anyone tried to do a ridingbuilder for downtown Montreal?  I started creating an alternative map but the area is a demographic minefield for the ignorant and unwary ("Mon Dieu!  You can't move that line!  What were you thinking?").

I'm not very good with ridingbuilder.
I think I managed to count the population of Ile-des-Soeurs, about 21,500. I wanted to give it back to Verdun riding. In exchange I wanted to give Ville-Emard and Cote-Saint-Paul to Ville-Marie (rejoin Sud-Ouest borough). I think it.s over 29,000 people so Ville-Marie would be bigger which is not good.

From the commission final proposal, I think I would trade the part of Saint-Henri that was put in NDG-Westmount back in Ville-Marie. In exchange the limit bewteen the two riding is pushed east to Guys street north of Ville-Marie expressway. Shaughnessy Village would be in NDG-Westmount.

I've looked at citizens comments during the hearing. Shaughnessy Village was proposed to be in NDG-Westmount. I see a political science professor from Concordia saying there is "no connection between the community engagement of citizens in the Shaughnessy Village area and the separate community engagement of citizens living in Westmount." The same thing could be said about people in Saint-Henri. I don't know how much it has gentrified but Saint-Henri used to be fancophone and lower income so Shaughnessy Village would be less different, I believe it's anglophone and you don't have to cross the expressway.

I've looked at the location of the two riding office. They are both close. NDG-Westmount is located on Ste-Catherine street near Westmount square so near the eastern limit of the riding. Ville-marie office is on St-Jacques street just west of Atwater. I guess they chose to be near a subway station (Atwater for Westmount and Lionel-Groulx for Ville-Marie.) With the final proposal the Ville-Marie riding office would be located in NDG-Westmount.

I see in the list of people making presentation during the hearings someone working in the riding office of Laurier-Ste-Marie. I have not found the comments on the website, maybe they put only the written submissions. I would be curious to know what was submitted. If it was on the proposed border change between the riding and Hochelaga or there was more suggestions. Sometimes when MPs get a surprise in the final report and without warning their riding gets changed the MP object in the House committee to defend the riding. I haven't heard the MP complained.

In terms of Big Brother it's like Laurier-Ste-Marie got backdoored. It didn't have the chance to play in the veto, speak about proposed changes. Others had the chance, pushed back and Laurier had no chance to fight.

[Krago]

Michael Coteau, the Liberal MP for Don Valley East, discovered in February that the Ontario Commission's plan to save the six Scarborough ridings was to get rid of his seat instead.  He has started a campaign to Save Don Valley East.  If you would like a lawn sign, just order one here:

https://www.savedve.ca/


You can read Michael Coteau's submission to the PROC Committee here:

https://michaelcoteau.libparl.ca/wp-content/uploads/sites/169/2023/03/MP-Michael-Coteau-Objection-submission-Final.pdf


Of course I've created a map that everyone will ignore!

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=18OrFn4Zs3JXgs9Yj-0LXuPgCN8vB94E&usp=sharing


Mr. Coteau's submission is quite well argued.  The problem is, it focuses on the wrong question: Not whether Toronto should lose a riding, but where Toronto should lose a riding.

The Report shows that on average, each new Southern Ontario MP (outside Toronto) would represent 2,400 more people than each new Toronto MP, using figures from the 2021 Census.  It would be very difficult to convince the Commissioners to remove a seat from the rest of Southern Ontario and add it to Toronto, since it would widen this gap to 8,400 constituents.

A stronger argument can be made that if Toronto were to drop from 25 to 24 MPs (and MPPs and City Councillors), it would be better to remove a riding from downtown Toronto than from Scarborough and Don Valley East, for all the reasons outlined in the submission.


I have prepared an alternative map for Toronto that:

·         keeps 24 federal ridings in the City as recommended by the Commission

·         retains six seats in Scarborough, using Victoria Park Ave as the boundary - there would be slight changes to the ridings to better balance populations, and to place Malvern in the one riding

·         allows Don Valley East to keep its current communities and add Thorncliffe Park

·         maintains three seats in Etobicoke without crossing the Humber River

·         uses Highway 401 as a boundary in North York and Scarborough

·         sets the population range for the six seats in downtown Toronto from +1.5% to +8.4% deviation from the provincial quotient, well within the ideal range set by the Commission

[Hatman 🍁]

The New Brunswick map has been approved. RIP united City of Saint John.

[Krago]

The New Brunswick map has been approved. RIP united City of Saint John.

We should pour out a Moosehead in memoriam.  That's what Elsie Wayne would have wanted.

[Krago]

Richmond doesn't want to include any part of Delta, or any part of Vancouver.  I guess that just leaves New Westminster.


https://bit.ly/Canada343

[Poirot]

The New Brunswick map has been approved. RIP united City of Saint John.

The only MPs objection was about a name and the commission dismissed it.

However, there was no evidence before us that anyone from the community, other than Mr. Williamson and the other citizen previously mentioned, objected to the new name. In the circumstances, it may well be unfair to now change the name from Saint John—St. Croix to New Brunswick Southwest without any opportunity for public consultation and input from the community.

Lesson: if you want something get letters of support from municipalities or people.
But the New Brunswick commission saying it is unfair to now change something without opportunity of public input is weird because that is what other commissions do when they change the initial proposal and come up with final report. Unexpected boundat change or name!

Don't know how long the name will last. It seems legislation has brought back the name NB Southwest a couple of times.

The name New Brunswick Southwest came into existence not as a result of a name given by a commission, as required by the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act, but through legislation. It was changed by legislation in 1997 from Charlotte to New Brunswick Southwest and again by legislation in 2004 when the new name of St. Croix—Belleisle, chosen by the commission, was changed back to New Brunswick Southwest.

 

[Krago]

Here's a map of the real boundary between Northern and Southern Ontario.

[Hatman 🍁]

I only recognize the curling border.

[Krago]

Ten more B.C. ridings:

https://bit.ly/Canada343


I've fixed West Vancouver and the B.C. Interior.

[Krago]

Two developments in Canadian redistribution:

(1) Nova Scotia released their response to the MPs objections today.  It looks like the Commission is spoiling for a legal fight over Cape Breton and Indigenous consultation.

https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/ns/rprt/repfin/adm_e.aspx#ovrw


(2) The PROC Committee is finally turning its attention to Ontario tomorrow at noon.  Han Dong is testifying, but not about that other thing.

https://www.ourcommons.ca/DocumentViewer/en/44-1/PROC/meeting-67/notice

[Njall]

On a more minor note, the Saskatchewan and Manitoba Commissions also released their responses. As was probably expected, the Saskatchewan Commission approved the proposed minor boundary swap in Regina between Regina—Qu’Appelle and Regina—Lewvan, as well as restoring two small rural communities to Regina—Qu’Appelle; however, they declined to create the urban Saskatoon Centre riding from the initial proposal. In Manitoba, they approved the minor bipartisan boundary change request between Chuchill—Keewatinook Aski and Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, while declining to remove the rural elements of the new Elmwood—Transcona.

[Hatman 🍁]

Only one change in Nova Scotia, they're changing Pictou—Eastern Shore back to Central Nova. Sad!

[toaster]

Michael Coteau, the Liberal MP for Don Valley East, discovered in February that the Ontario Commission's plan to save the six Scarborough ridings was to get rid of his seat instead.  He has started a campaign to Save Don Valley East.  If you would like a lawn sign, just order one here:

https://www.savedve.ca/


You can read Michael Coteau's submission to the PROC Committee here:

https://michaelcoteau.libparl.ca/wp-content/uploads/sites/169/2023/03/MP-Michael-Coteau-Objection-submission-Final.pdf


Of course I've created a map that everyone will ignore!

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=18OrFn4Zs3JXgs9Yj-0LXuPgCN8vB94E&usp=sharing


Mr. Coteau's submission is quite well argued.  The problem is, it focuses on the wrong question: Not whether Toronto should lose a riding, but where Toronto should lose a riding.

The Report shows that on average, each new Southern Ontario MP (outside Toronto) would represent 2,400 more people than each new Toronto MP, using figures from the 2021 Census.  It would be very difficult to convince the Commissioners to remove a seat from the rest of Southern Ontario and add it to Toronto, since it would widen this gap to 8,400 constituents.

A stronger argument can be made that if Toronto were to drop from 25 to 24 MPs (and MPPs and City Councillors), it would be better to remove a riding from downtown Toronto than from Scarborough and Don Valley East, for all the reasons outlined in the submission.


I have prepared an alternative map for Toronto that:

·         keeps 24 federal ridings in the City as recommended by the Commission

·         retains six seats in Scarborough, using Victoria Park Ave as the boundary - there would be slight changes to the ridings to better balance populations, and to place Malvern in the one riding

·         allows Don Valley East to keep its current communities and add Thorncliffe Park

·         maintains three seats in Etobicoke without crossing the Humber River

·         uses Highway 401 as a boundary in North York and Scarborough

·         sets the population range for the six seats in downtown Toronto from +1.5% to +8.4% deviation from the provincial quotient, well within the ideal range set by the Commission

That's an awful map for Toronto.  Not only is there a wide gap, but it's not equally distributed.  The West end of Toronto is hard hit, Etobicoke-Centre and Etobicoke-North both at almost 130k is insane, what quotient +% are those both at?  And right beside each other.  You cannot keep only 3 ridings in Etobicoke - one (or likely 2 of them) need to cross the creek.  The issue isn't just that Toronto is losing one riding, it's also that the growth in the West far outpaces the growth in the East so even if Toronto didn't lose a riding, there would be shifts and Scarborough or Don Valley would likely still lose at least half a riding.

[Krago]

Of course it's an awful map.  Not even Jesus can save Don Valley East now.

Here are the population deviation ranges:

Central North York/Toronto (5): -2.5% to +7.4%
Etobicoke (3): +3.7% to +10.4%
North York - north of Hwy 401 (4): -7.1% to +1.4%
Scarborough (6): -12.6% to -8.1%
Toronto (6): +1.5% to +8.4%


The populations are definitely unbalanced, but the overall range (-12.6% to +10.4%) is still within what the Ontario Commission deems acceptable.

[Krago]

Ruby Sahota, MP (Lib - Brampton North) wants to keep the neighbourhood of Springdale together in one riding.  Here's a plan that also keeps Bramalea together, but splits Brampton East and makes for an odd-looking new seat of Brampton North--Gore--Mayfield.


https://bit.ly/Canada343

[Krago]

I'm not sure what MP Peter Fragiskatos (Lib - London North Centre) is going to say tomorrow at the PROC Committee, but here's a plan to keep London North Centre (more or less) intact.


https://bit.ly/Canada343

[Hatman 🍁]

Ruby Sahota, MP (Lib - Brampton North) wants to keep the neighbourhood of Springdale together in one riding.  Here's a plan that also keeps Bramalea together, but splits Brampton East and makes for an odd-looking new seat of Brampton North--Gore--Mayfield.


https://bit.ly/Canada343

This is awful.

I'm not sure what MP Peter Fragiskatos (Lib - London North Centre) is going to say tomorrow at the PROC Committee, but here's a plan to keep London North Centre (more or less) intact.


https://bit.ly/Canada343

Not bad, but regrettable how populous the three London ridings are.

[Krago]

Here are the results of the 2022 Ontario Provincial Election transposed onto the new federal boundaries in Northern Ontario.

New Federal Riding	Margin	PC	NDP	LIB	GRN	NB+ONT	OTH
Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk	PC +14.2%	51.0%	36.8%	4.7%	2.5%	4.2%	0.8%
Kenora—Kiiwetinoong	PC +24.4%	53.0%	28.6%	9.7%	3.9%	3.9%	0.9%
Manitoulin—Nickel Belt	NDP +15.5%	31.7%	47.2%	9.3%	4.8%	6.7%	0.4%
Nipissing—Timiskaming	PC +12.3%	46.1%	33.7%	11.5%	3.4%	3.9%	1.4%
Parry Sound—Muskoka	PC +4.7%	45.4%	7.7%		40.6%	5.7%	0.6%
Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma	PC +2.9%	42.9%	40.0%	7.0%	2.8%	4.8%	2.5%
Sudbury	NDP +13.2%	29.6%	42.9%	17.3%	4.6%	4.1%	1.5%
Thunder Bay—Rainy River	PC +7.3%	39.4%	32.1%	21.6%	3.0%	3.3%	0.6%
Thunder Bay—Superior North	NDP +2.5%	31.6%	34.1%	27.8%	2.9%	2.7%	1.0%

Last year, the NDP won 7 of the 13 existing provincial ridings and the PCs won 6.  Using the new federal ridings, the PCs would win 6 seats and the NDP would be reduced to three.

What are the odds that Doug Ford will adopt the 122 new federal ridings as Ontario's new provincial electoral map without any changes?  What are the odds that it survives a court challenge?

[lilTommy]

Here are the results of the 2022 Ontario Provincial Election transposed onto the new federal boundaries in Northern Ontario.

New Federal Riding	Margin	PC	NDP	LIB	GRN	NB+ONT	OTH
Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk	PC +14.2%	51.0%	36.8%	4.7%	2.5%	4.2%	0.8%
Kenora—Kiiwetinoong	PC +24.4%	53.0%	28.6%	9.7%	3.9%	3.9%	0.9%
Manitoulin—Nickel Belt	NDP +15.5%	31.7%	47.2%	9.3%	4.8%	6.7%	0.4%
Nipissing—Timiskaming	PC +12.3%	46.1%	33.7%	11.5%	3.4%	3.9%	1.4%
Parry Sound—Muskoka	PC +4.7%	45.4%	7.7%		40.6%	5.7%	0.6%
Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma	PC +2.9%	42.9%	40.0%	7.0%	2.8%	4.8%	2.5%
Sudbury	NDP +13.2%	29.6%	42.9%	17.3%	4.6%	4.1%	1.5%
Thunder Bay—Rainy River	PC +7.3%	39.4%	32.1%	21.6%	3.0%	3.3%	0.6%
Thunder Bay—Superior North	NDP +2.5%	31.6%	34.1%	27.8%	2.9%	2.7%	1.0%

Last year, the NDP won 7 of the 13 existing provincial ridings and the PCs won 6.  Using the new federal ridings, the PCs would win 6 seats and the NDP would be reduced to three.

What are the odds that Doug Ford will adopt the 122 new federal ridings as Ontario's new provincial electoral map without any changes?  What are the odds that it survives a court challenge?

What are the odds that Doug Ford will adopt the 122 new federal ridings as Ontario's new provincial electoral map without any changes?  
-> 50/50; While I can see DoFo loving that Toronto will lose a riding, especially a Liberal one, reducing Northern Ontario from 13 to 9, might look good on paper with the NDP losing 3, but my assumption is that the PCs would face a HUGE backlash against that decision and may actually end up losing seats due to a perceived anti-north "attack". It wouldn't take much, as 3 of their 6 were won with less then a 10% margin. I could see him leave the North as is, and adopt most of the changes for Southern Ontario though (if that worked) But maybe not since that would add more seats and we all know DoFo ain't a fan of elected representation.

What are the odds that it survives a court challenge?
-> 0; Nova Scotia lost their redistribution which attempted to eliminate Acadian ridings in 2017 I think. The two seats created in 2018 for N.ON were for communities of interest.

[toaster]

Did the commission ever give a reason for putting Kapuskasing before Timmins in that proposed riding name?  Timmins is a city of 40k+ people, Kapuskasing has 8k? 

[Hatman 🍁]

Did the commission ever give a reason for putting Kapuskasing before Timmins in that proposed riding name?  Timmins is a city of 40k+ people, Kapuskasing has 8k? 

I don't think so; maybe to make it alphabetical? I did complain about these things relentlessly in my submission, but I don't think they took any of my suggestions to heart.

[Krago]

The PROC Committee has released its reports on the MPs' objections to the Alberta and Quebec electoral boundaries.

Alberta Report

Quebec Report


The Quebec report has an incredible section:

"Mr. Brunelle-Duceppe also pointed out that only one intervener, Marc Perron, proposed redistributing the electoral districts this way during the public hearings. In fact, Mr. Brunelle-Duceppe’s letter of objection is accompanied by a letter from Mr. Perron, who now says he regrets making this proposal."

I wonder if Mr. Perron's family has been released.

[emmettmark]

PROC Report on MP objections for BC is out!

https://www.ourcommons.ca/DocumentViewer/en/44-1/PROC/report-42/

Interesting to see MP co-operation on boundary objections, or rather lack thereof, (including different redistribution plans within the LPC caucus). As with other provinces this cycle, Conservative MPs created a well written dissenting report.

Given the PROC report contents and disjointed objections, I'm quite confident the 2024 BC federal boundaries will be nearly unchanged from the Commission's current report.

[Krago]

https://twitter.com/bigcitypolitics/status/1661864607294578688?s=46&t=YHDSok...

The shapefile direct download link:
https://t.co/7HE7IKL7Ch

https://borealisdata.ca/api/access/datafile/449029

[Storr]

I was curious how representation would look if Quebec's average population per electoral district of 108,998 was applied to the provinces with averages greater than Quebec's. Since Canada rounds up to the next whole number when assigning seats, I will also round up.

Alberta: 41 seats

British Columbia: 48 seats

Ontario: 137 seats

+ 78 Quebec seats

+ 63 seats from the 6 other provinces and 3 territories

Would give a House of Commons consisting of 367 members.