Norwegian General Election 13 September 2021

[Oryxslayer]

So Norway's going red, Germany's about to go red and soon one in three citizens of democratic European countries will live in a country with a Social Democratic government, compared to one in 10 at the end of 2018.

It's over guys, the left is dying, Social Democracy is dying. Muh. Global. Trends.

Except it is - or at least Social Democratic parties are. This is still among Ap's worst results ever, even though they are winning. The SPD in Germany aren't going to gain that many votes and still will have a horrible result when compared to history, the Union's just fallen below them.

What has changed, and is happening in all these countries is that other parties who consider themselves "left" but not "social democratic" or "labor aligned" are on the rise. These includes Greens, Communists/Radicals, Reformist Liberals, and left-populists. Which is honestly natural and makes perfect sense given parliamentary fragmentation, the increasing education of reformist voters, and increasing concern/urgency about climate change. And these parties are happy to support "left" govts, if there are the numbers.

[Diouf]

Venstre starting to look fairly safe. On 4.4% now. While it looks like a nailbiter for MDG and KrF, which might not be decided tonight. At 3.99% and 3.87% in the prognosis now.

[DL]

So Norway's going red, Germany's about to go red and soon one in three citizens of democratic European countries will live in a country with a Social Democratic government, compared to one in 10 at the end of 2018.

It's over guys, the left is dying, Social Democracy is dying. Muh. Global. Trends.

Except it is - or at least Social Democratic parties are. This is still among Ap's worst results ever, even though they are winning. The SPD in Germany aren't going to gain that many votes and still will have a horrible result when compared to history, the Union's just fallen below them.

What has changed, and is happening in all these countries is that other parties who consider themselves "left" but not "social democratic" or "labor aligned" are on the rise. These includes Greens, Communists/Radicals, Reformist Liberals, and left-populists. Which is honestly natural and makes perfect sense given parliamentary fragmentation, the increasing education of reformist voters, and increasing concern/urgency about climate change. And these parties are happy to support "left" govts, if there are the numbers.

In France, what you are describing is known as "la gauche pluriel"

[Diouf]

Adding to the drama: the fire alarm going off while Ropstad giving his speech to KrF

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Gains for smaller left-wing parties (from Ap) in Oslo are so strong that H is replacing Ap as the largest party in the capital (even though it's also losing support overall, and of course the red bloc is gaining on the blue bloc literally everywhere in the country).

Careful: day results from much of the east of the city (mostly strong for Labour) aren't in yet, by the look of it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Norway should really adopt a seat allocation system more along the lines of Sweden and Denmark. The current one is pretty ridiculous and allows for serious distortions.

[Diouf]

The prognosis still bumbling back and forward. Now Krf at 3.95% and MDG at 3.75%.

[Diouf]

Patient Focus getting a seat looks certain. 98.2% counted. They are at 13.0% and FrP at 11.0% in the prognosis. Golden days await for those institutes polling Finnmark in the next four years!

[Jens]

Adding to the drama: the fire alarm going off while Ropstad giving his speech to KrF

That was pretty hilarious - I liked the NRK commentators remark about not reading to much into that ;-)

[KaiserDave]

Social Democracy wins again

[Jens]

Norway should really adopt a seat allocation system more along the lines of Sweden and Denmark. The current one is pretty ridiculous and allows for serious distortions.

Norway has excelled in having distorted seat allocation. AP held a majority in Stortinget fra 1945 to 1963 without getting 50 % of the votes at any election. The 1949 election was especially bad.

[Diouf]

MDG likely getting 3 seats, even if staying below the threshold as looks increasingly likely. They will get an additional seat in Oslo + win one in Akershus. Party leader (for now...) Une Aina Bastholm will take the Akershus seat, while the lead candidate in Oslo is the prominent Lan Marie Nguyen Berg, former Commissioner for transport and the environment in Oslo. The second seat in Oslo will go to former co-leader and sole MP 2013-2017 Rasmus Hansson.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Solberg concedes to Støre. Seems like the media are basically calling a Red-Green (Ap+Sp+SV) majority at this point? Current projections have them at 89 seats, how likely is that to more or less hold going forward?

[Diouf]

As far as I can see, half of the new young Red group currently looks like it will be former leaders of the youth party. Moxnes himself + Tobias Drevland Lund, Mimir Kristjansson and Seher Aydar.

[Jens]

Solberg concedes to Støre. Seems like the media are basically calling a Red-Green (Ap+Sp+SV) majority at this point? Current projections have them at 89 seats, how likely is that to more or less hold going forward?

Nothing is decided yet and there will probably be some long and hard negotiations. SP would like a government without SV, but given the strong result for the leftwing, that seems ulikely

[Diouf]

Solberg concedes to Støre. Seems like the media are basically calling a Red-Green (Ap+Sp+SV) majority at this point? Current projections have them at 89 seats, how likely is that to more or less hold going forward?

It has been a while since all 4 parties were above the threshold in any prognosis, but when it happened early in the evening, that majority was still 86 seats. And all four above the threshold looking less and less likely.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Worth noting that Labour's c. 26% is decidedly at the higher end of what was suggested by campaign polling and quite a lot better than looked likely for some pretty large stretches of the past four years. While clearly not a great triumph, it is, given the context, a reasonable performance and really can't be used to desperately cling to #thenarrative.

[Logical]

Clean sweep for the left block in Nord-Trøndelag. 5-0

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

All these party abbreviations are giving me flashbacks to various math classes. I know Iceland and Denmark do it too.

[njwes]

I doubt the pandemic plays a factor at all in those hypothetical government changes. Germany might see a change in government because for the first time in history, no incumbent Chancellor is up for election and CDU/CSU just nominated a dull candidate. According to Europe Elects at least, the pandemic was neither a big factor in Norway but rather because many Norwegians were dissatisfied with the government on climate, taxes and decentralization. And Iceland doesn't even have a real center-left government to begin with, the party of the PM is only half as strong as the main coalition partner which is center-right.

Do they want them lower or higher (taxes), and do they want more or less (decentralization)?

[njwes]

Except it is - or at least Social Democratic parties are. This is still among Ap's worst results ever, even though they are winning. The SPD in Germany aren't going to gain that many votes and still will have a horrible result when compared to history, the Union's just fallen below them.

What has changed, and is happening in all these countries is that other parties who consider themselves "left" but not "social democratic" or "labor aligned" are on the rise. These includes Greens, Communists/Radicals, Reformist Liberals, and left-populists. Which is honestly natural and makes perfect sense given parliamentary fragmentation, the increasing education of reformist voters, and increasing concern/urgency about climate change. And these parties are happy to support "left" govts, if there are the numbers.

In France, what you are describing is known as "la gauche pluriel"

Yes, you get to pursue all of your radical/green/lefty dreams and live out your social justice warrior fantasies while despising, disparaging, and looking down on the the working class and poor native population of your country, without even having to care about their livelihoods or quality of life. It's fun!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Gains for smaller left-wing parties (from Ap) in Oslo are so strong that H is replacing Ap as the largest party in the capital (even though it's also losing support overall, and of course the red bloc is gaining on the blue bloc literally everywhere in the country).

Careful: day results from much of the east of the city (mostly strong for Labour) aren't in yet, by the look of it.

Counting looks to be finished and Høyre stayed on top, though by just half a percentage point. Meanwhile in Bergen and Stavanger, Høyre's leads are notably smaller than last time as Labour held up much better than in Oslo (and actually better than the national average in Bergen).

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Disturbing to see a Maoist party gaining so much of the vote(red). It's sad how socially acceptable left-wing radicalism is these days among young people. They deserve to be placed under a Cordon sanitaire.

[warandwar]

Disturbing to see a Maoist party gaining so much of the vote(red). It's sad how socially acceptable left-wing radicalism is these days among young people. They deserve to be placed under a Cordon sanitaire.

It's not a Maoist party, and it clearly broke through beyond "young people" in this election.

[PSOL]

After decades of neoliberalism, the Nordic countries have had enough with the corporate-backed parties and Union bosses keeping the working class in check. Time to continue owning the monied.