Norwegian General Election 13 September 2021

[Diouf]

NRK prognosis

Ap 26.5%
H 18.7%
S 14.7
FrP 11.5%
SV 7.6%
R 5.0%
MDG 4.1%
KrF 3.9%
V 3.5%

[Mike88]

53.0% of the votes already counted:

25.7% Ap
19.7% H
14.0% Sp
11.7% FrP
  7.7% SV
  5.0% Rødt
  4.2% MGD
  4.1% KrF
  3.8% V

[mileslunn]

How long does it usually take to count the votes and at what time will concession and victory speeches be made?

[Diouf]

53.0% of the votes already counted:

25.7% Ap
19.7% H
14.0% Sp
11.7% FrP
  7.7% SV
  5.0% Rødt
  4.2% MGD
  4.1% KrF
  3.8% V

Note that even the official election site valgresultat.no is a prognosis. Venstre must be higher now with the early votes. Will see if that is visible somewhere.

[Diouf]

If you go down from the national level on the national election site, it is only results (i.e. mainly early voting so far).

[Sestak]

If you go down from the national level on the national election site, it is only results (i.e. mainly early voting so far).

Even nationally if you flip to the detail tab, I think the raw vote total is the present total. The percentage to the right of it is still the prognosis though, as they do not match up.

[Diouf]

NRK prognosis now have Ap, Sp and SV down to 86 seats.

Looking at the early voting results, Venstre is 0.8% up compared to 2017 in Oslo (which most be the final 2017 result). And unlike the left-wing parties, Venstre did better on election day than early voting in 2017. So the prognosis must expect that to have changed this time or the party is doing much worse in the rest of the country than in Oslo. If the former is true, perhaps it was because they favoured from election day tactical voting in 2017, which they aren't getting this time. Or they could be wrong

[Diouf]

The official result page already have Venstre up on 4.2% now, suggesting they perhaps miscalculated on their first projection. KrF down on 4.0%

[DL]

Pardon me if this has been explained before, but can anyone explain to me why the Senterpartiet in Norway is a coalition partner with Labour and not with Hoyre? I thought they were like the Swedish Centre Party - a centre right more rural party with more of a natural affinity for the right.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Pardon me if this has been explained before, but can anyone explain to me why the Senterpartiet in Norway is a coalition partner with Labour and not with Hoyre? I thought they were like the Swedish Centre Party - a centre right more rural party with more of a natural affinity for the right.

Politicus mentioned in 2017 that Sp is unique in having its own ties to labor unions, and was/is considered the second "class" party in Norway.

They seem much more disposed to left-liberalism than Centre in Sweden or Finland.

[Diouf]

Patient Focus on 42.3% of the counted votes in their main area of Alta. That area is more counted that the rest of Finnmark so far. Because of counted votes they are even ahead of Sp, but in the prognosis on the regional level, they are a fair bit behind them. In the prognosis, Patient Focus are on 12% while FrP is on 11%. It seems like these two parties will fight for the final seat in Finnmark.

[Diouf]

MDG now below the threshold in the prognosis! On 3.99%! It really will be close. KrF on 4.02%, Venstre on 4.13%

[Diouf]

The insane relation between constituency seats and leveling seats again likely to throw off some truly stupid seats. Currently, Venstre is currently getting a leveling seat in Finnmark, the only fifth seat in that constituency. And they are on 1.3% in that region. They are only the 11th biggest party in that region, below all the national parties, Patient Focus and the Democrats.

The leveling seats will of course change around a fair bit, but particularly Venstre and MDG will likely get some crazy leveling seats, if they cross the threshold.

[Vosem]

Looks pretty consistent that Ap+Sp+SV are going to form a majority on their own, without needing backing from MDG or R (even if all three threshold-flirting parties end up making it).

If V makes it, it would be quite surprising considering polling and would be the first time the party makes the threshold three times consecutively since the 1960s (with 2013/2017 also being the first two consecutive times since 1965/1969).

What exactly caused the enormous Liberal crash in 1973? Prior to that they were one of the major parties, but since then they've normally struggled to hit the threshold (except in the New Tens) and were even locked out of the Storting entirely in most of the 1980s.

[Diouf]

What exactly caused the enormous Liberal crash in 1973?

The party split over the vote to join the EEC. The yes-side broke off and made its own party, which in 1973 received 3.4%, i.e. more than the no-side which stayed in the original party.

[Vosem]

This website (in Norwegian: https://www.vg.no/valgnatt/2021?utm_source=valg-widget-front) has a map which is being updated.

[Diouf]

NRK prognosis has MDG getting further away from a seat. Now on 3.85%. What a failure for the party if they fail to cross the threshold in an election, where the media has promoted climate as the major subject. Perhaps their rigid focus on the oil ultimatum has led more left wing voters to choose the more "moderate" Rødt or stay with Ap.
Venstre on 3.99% currently. A bit of the same story for them, but still now the same issue ownership as MDG.
KrF on 4.07%. Rødt also falling since the first prognosis. 4.65%.

[Diouf]

Pardon me if this has been explained before, but can anyone explain to me why the Senterpartiet in Norway is a coalition partner with Labour and not with Hoyre? I thought they were like the Swedish Centre Party - a centre right more rural party with more of a natural affinity for the right.

Politicus mentioned in 2017 that Sp is unique in having its own ties to labor unions, and was/is considered the second "class" party in Norway.

They seem much more disposed to left-liberalism than Centre in Sweden or Finland.

Perhaps this is different understandings of the word, but I see Centre Party in Sweden as extremely left-liberal. Sp in Norway much less. Way more conservative on social issues, and willingness to support poor people (particularly in rural areas of course).

[Diouf]

Patient Focus losing a bit of their lead in the prognosis for Finnmark. Earlier in the evening, they were 1.0% ahead of FrP. Now it's just 0.6%, 12.1% to 11.5%

[Sestak]

Seems to be solidifying into a position where R and V make, MDG misses. KrF still up in the air.

[parochial boy]

So Norway's going red, Germany's about to go red and soon one in three citizens of democratic European countries will live in a country with a Social Democratic government, compared to one in 10 at the end of 2018.

It's over guys, the left is dying, Social Democracy is dying. Muh. Global. Trends.

[Diouf]

KrF leader Kjell Ingolf Ropstad is the lead candidate in Vest-Agder, the party's safest seat, and will get elected on a constituency seat. The prognosis currently have them increasing there to 14.2%, up 1.6%. The two other constituency seats are likely in Hordaland for Minister of Development Dag-Inge Ulstein, and in Rogaland for deputy leader and Minister for Food and Agriculture Olaug Bollestad.

A lot of young candidates looking like getting elected for Rødt. An average age of 33 years, NRK just said. So this is Czech Pirates young.

[mileslunn]

So Norway's going red, Germany's about to go red and soon one in three citizens of democratic European countries will live in a country with a Social Democratic government, compared to one in 10 at the end of 2018.

It's over guys, the left is dying, Social Democracy is dying. Muh. Global. Trends.

Agreed, left is not dying, but in some countries most notably Netherlands, Italy, and France in big trouble.  Treading water in Austria and while PASOK dead in Greece, SYRIZA trailing but not out of it.  In UK Labour may be behind but far from dead, while Ireland which has never had a left wing government has left polling at record highs.

For those hoping to see a right turn, maybe Canada which has an election on September 20th, it may swing right, but far from certain.  But if Norway, Canada, Germany, and Iceland all see government changes, that will be less about ideology and more about how pandemic is creating a strong anti-incumbency factor.

[Astatine]

So Norway's going red, Germany's about to go red and soon one in three citizens of democratic European countries will live in a country with a Social Democratic government, compared to one in 10 at the end of 2018.

It's over guys, the left is dying, Social Democracy is dying. Muh. Global. Trends.

Agreed, left is not dying, but in some countries most notably Netherlands, Italy, and France in big trouble.  Treading water in Austria and while PASOK dead in Greece, SYRIZA trailing but not out of it.  In UK Labour may be behind but far from dead, while Ireland which has never had a left wing government has left polling at record highs.

For those hoping to see a right turn, maybe Canada which has an election on September 20th, it may swing right, but far from certain.  But if Norway, Canada, Germany, and Iceland all see government changes, that will be less about ideology and more about how pandemic is creating a strong anti-incumbency factor.

I doubt the pandemic plays a factor at all in those hypothetical government changes. Germany might see a change in government because for the first time in history, no incumbent Chancellor is up for election and CDU/CSU just nominated a dull candidate. According to Europe Elects at least, the pandemic was neither a big factor in Norway but rather because many Norwegians were dissatisfied with the government on climate, taxes and decentralization. And Iceland doesn't even have a real center-left government to begin with, the party of the PM is only half as strong as the main coalition partner which is center-right.

[Vosem]

Gains for smaller left-wing parties (from Ap) in Oslo are so strong that H is replacing Ap as the largest party in the capital (even though it's also losing support overall, and of course the red bloc is gaining on the blue bloc literally everywhere in the country).