Norwegian General Election 13 September 2021

[Diouf]

Both R and MDG are preparing for a situation with decisive influence, and their leaders have exchanged some tough words in the media in recent days. R leader Moxnes said that Rødt would be the natural partner for a centre-left government, as MDG has set the ultimatum of not supporting a government which will search for more oil or gas. MDG's leader Bastholm said that this was revealing that Rødt won't prioritize the climate and aren't an enviromental party, and therefore are letting down the poorest people in the World. Moxnes brushes off Bastholm and says that Bastholm is fully able to read, so she can see how high demands R has on climate. Her statements must therefore be "a politically motivated hallucination"

[Diouf]

A bad case for KrF leader Kjell Ingolf Ropstad just as the party is fighting to end above the threshold. Aftenposten revealed that Ropstad was registrered as living with his parents in Moisund all the way until November 2020 despite living in Oslo. However, when elected in 2009 he was studying in Oslo and living in the capital. By being registrered at his parents, he and his family could live in Oslo in a free parliamentary, and later an even better governmental, apartment for free. Such apartments are available for MPs living more than 40 km from Oslo. During parts of that period, Ropstad could then earn money from renting out his Oslo apartment on top of it.

1.021.956 persons have already voted via early voting, more than a quarter of all voters.

[Diouf]

There is increased speculation about whether the local health party Patient Focus can win a constituency seat in Finnmark. NRK says that their Norstat poll has them only 200 votes away, while the most recent Kantar poll for TV2 showed them actually winning a seat. The party is primarily focused on getting more hospital functions to Alta, and generally improved health care conditions in the area. Party leader and potential MP Irene Ojala says that the party has not taken stances on other issues. If they get elected, they will decide what to do on all other issues via polling of the citizens in Finnmark. Ojala calls it a "true people's democracy in practice".

Back in 1989, another local list won a constituency seat in Finnmark. That time it was a list by a former Ap MP Anders Aune. It seems like it was mostly in protest against the established parties' negligence of the area with demands of lower taxes and more investments to attract people to area after years of poor fishing outputs and depopulation.

In terms of other parties, it seems like Frp might have managed to squeeze the Democrats. Others are down towards 3% in several polls, and Frp has moved up towards 12% in several of them. Still a fair drop from the 15.2% in 2017.

[Diouf]

A new poll of Oslo shows the extent to which the parties left of Ap are booming in the capital.
Rødt is up from 6.3% in 2017 to 7.7%, MDG is up from 6.0% to 10.2% and SV up from 9.3% to 13.6%. So combined they are up from 21.6 to 31.5%. If they reach the result of this poll, they will almost match the extraordinary combined score of 31.6% from the 2019 Oslo local elections. Like in most parts of the country, both Ap and H are well down. From 28.4% to 23.1%, and from 26.4% to 20.1% respectively.

The poll is by Respons for VG.

[Vosem]

To a first approximation, why is the blue bloc losing this election (and so decisively)? Is it something to do with COVID, something to do with scandals/dissent in the government, or just a "their time has come" sort of thing? It seems like a lot of European incumbents are fairly popular right now and the left is weak in many countries, so it's interesting to see this climate in Norway.

[Diouf]

To a first approximation, why is the blue bloc losing this election (and so decisively)? Is it something to do with COVID, something to do with scandals/dissent in the government, or just a "their time has come" sort of thing? It seems like a lot of European incumbents are fairly popular right now and the left is weak in many countries, so it's interesting to see this climate in Norway.

The last election was already very tight in terms of votes, and largely decided by the threshold. So I think it's fairly normal for a governing majority to see its support eroding. Høyre also got a covid bounce, but like in many other countries it has fizzled out again. I'm not sure the situation in Norway is much of an outlier.

The big story during most of the term was of course Senterpartiet booming by being the main opposition voice against the government's centralizing reforms. In recent months, it has mostly been about SV, MDG and Rødt gaining, particularly on the climate question, winning votes among young first-time voters and former Ap voters, but also drawing a bit across the centre. And Ap has also gained a good amount of votes directly from Høyre, perhaps the most typical attrition movement. The leading governemnt party's record on health care, education, taxation etc. under attack after 8 years.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Why did Sp's vote share plunge over the past few weeks? They've plunged from 18% to 13%; where are these voters going? Sp's decline doesn't match up with any other party making major gains; are they going to "undecided"?

[Oryxslayer]

Why did Sp's vote share plunge over the past few weeks? They've plunged from 18% to 13%; where are these voters going? Sp's decline doesn't match up with any other party making major gains; are they going to "undecided"?

Apparently they failed to present themselves as a viable alternative during the debates and campaign, which led to them tumbling back down to their normal percentages. As noted though the voters are undecided, which could simply mean "Sp but not as enthusiastic or committed as before."

On Vosem's point, it just feels like it is time for the government to change hands and has run its course. Sp is a great illustrator of this: their surge demonstrated peoples reaction to government policies and a desire for change to something different. Of course rather than their momentum carrying Sp to first place it appears to have collapsed, but the desires that pushed the party forward are still there within the electorate.

[Diouf]

The polls will close tomorrow at 21.00. The early votes are already counted today, and the results of these will be published immediately as the polls close. The election day votes will then be counted. A few votes can first be counted on Tuesday, if people have early voted in another muncipality than their home one.
With the high number of early voting this time, the patterns might be a bit different this time. In 2017, SV, Rødt and in particuar MDG did better in early voting, while Sp in particular did better among election day voters. In this respect, one should also notice whether the channels/result pages are showing the already counted (i.e. dominated by early voting in the beginning) or a prognosis of the results (where they should have tried to incorporate these normal patterns of early voting)

The offical result page is here: https://valgresultat.no/?type=st&year=2021

For coverage, nrk.no is the most obvious one and so far their coverage has not been geo-blocked. vg.no and tv2.no are also very useful.

[Babeuf]

What is the relationship between Rodt and SV like? Is there SV resentment that there is now a viable option to the left of them?

[Lurker]

For anyone wondering: the polls close at 21:00 local time. A large proportion of the votes will already have been counted by then, as there has been an unprecedented number of early votes this year — more than 40% of the electorate. A lot of these votes will help form the basis for the exit polls, so we should expect them to be very accurate.

[YL]

Is there any possibility of a party switching blocs in negotiations after the election or is that something which just doesn't happen?

[Diouf]

Is there any possibility of a party switching blocs in negotiations after the election or is that something which just doesn't happen?

It's hard to imagine. On paper, Sp has more policies where they are closer to some of the right wing parties, so they would be the most obvious candidate to change side. But their raison d'être is de-centralization, and the right wing majority has made centralizing reforms in several areas. This has also been the repeated criticism from Vedum throughout the term and the campaign. And Vedum has also been clear about his preference for a government with Ap, so it would be an absurd turnaround to suddenly be a part of a right wing governing majority.

It is interesting in a longer perspective, whether there can be movement in that direction. If Sp is part of a governing majority with SV + MDG/Rødt and is growing increasingly tired of them, while the right wing parties are more accommodating towards them, perhaps there could be some movement for Senterpartiet. Frp is certainly sick and tired of KrF and Venstre after the last term, and Listhaug said directly during one of the debates, that the problem is that Sp is part of the left block.

I don't think any of the smaller centre-right parties are gonna be moving into the frame in the centre-left governing majority. When Sp was at their highest, there was some minor speculation that perhaps Sp-Ap could have a majority with KrF, but that seems impossible on current numbers. And KrF has quite recently been through a long and open process, where the party narrowly chose the right. And they and Venstre have both been quite happy with last years, where they have been in government with Høyre without FrP.

[Mike88]

Link for TV2 live feed: https://www.tv2.no/politikk/valg2021?r=refresh

Why is the Ap leader speaking at the podium right now?? Are they claiming victory already?

[DavidB.]

Why is FrP pro-centralization?

[Diouf]

Link for TV2 live feed: https://www.tv2.no/politikk/valg2021?r=refresh

Why is the Ap leader speaking at the podium right now?? Are they claiming victory already?

It was mostly a thank you to for the campaign effort, and then a funny anecdote or two about the campaign. I'm guessing he will come back to speak later in the evening.

[Mike88]

Link for TV2 live feed: https://www.tv2.no/politikk/valg2021?r=refresh

Why is the Ap leader speaking at the podium right now?? Are they claiming victory already?

It was mostly a thank you to for the campaign effort, and then a funny anecdote or two about the campaign. I'm guessing he will come back to speak later in the evening.

Ah, right. Thanks!

[mileslunn]

When do exit polls come out?

[Mike88]

When do exit polls come out?

In 5 minutes.

[Diouf]

Why is FrP pro-centralization?

Høyre has been the driving force and most pro-centralization, but Frp has also been in favour. Looking at the program, they cite:
Reduce bureaucracy, ensure equal treatment of citizens across the country, and ensure that local municipalities are big and strong enough to deliver high-quality services.

From the party program:

"The Progress Part wants a more equal treatment of citizens, no matter where they live in the country. We want health, social care and education to be stately finances services to serve that purpose." This means removing the regions (fylkekommuner). So they want some of its tasks moved to the state level, perhaps also because they have a bigger chance of influence there, but do also say that some of its functions should be moved to local municipalities.

"Local municipalities have had to be fusioned to meet the sharpened demand and expectations in society. It is a precondition that local municipalities can be run effectively and deliver high quality services to people. There are still municipalities who are too small to do this." But they also later add that these bigger, stronger local municipalities should be able to keep more of their own tax proceeds and decide more.

[Mike88]

TV2 exit poll:

26.0% Ap
20.4% H
13.3% Sp
10.9% FrP
  7.9% SV
  4.7% Rødt
  4.4% V
  4.3% MGD
  3.9% KrF

[Astatine]

TV2 exit poll:

26.0% Ap
20.4% H
13.3% Sp
10.9% FrP
  7.9% SV
  4.7% Rødt
  4.4% V
  4.3% MGD
  3.9% KrF

Lol KrF

[Diouf]

88 seat majority for Ap-Sp-SV according to the current NRK prognosis. Venstre and KrF below the threshold, MDG just above it (4.1%). Patient Focus winning a seat in Finnmark.

[Sestak]

So right now there is a chance of Ap+Sp+SV majority without either MDG or R?

[oddfellowslocal151]

What is the relationship between Rodt and SV like? Is there SV resentment that there is now a viable option to the left of them?

Idk about now, but interestingly enough the predecessor to Rodt, the AKP, originated from the youth wing of the Socialist People's Party, one of the parties that formed SV in the 70s