Norwegian General Election 13 September 2021

[Diouf]

Norway will go the polls on 13 September 2021 to elect the 169 members of the Storting. Høyre's Erna Solberg has been PM since 2013 on the back of a centre-right majority with KrF, Venstre and FrP. The majority has been the same, but the composition of parties in the government has changed three times since Solberg began her tenure as head of a H-FrP government in 2013. Solberg is now heading a H-V-KrF government which looks certain to lose power in the upcoming election.

The big question is therefore which kind of government will be formed by the opposition parties. At some points during the term, it has looked like it might be an open question who would lead such a government. Sp was equal to or even bigger than Ap in some polls, and Sp leader Trygve Vedum has announced himself as PM candidate. However, in recent months Ap seems to have rebounded a fair bit and now seems clearly ahead of Sp, and therefore it's very likely Ap leader Jonas Gahr Støre will become the new PM.

In terms of government formation, Støre has stated his preference for a Ap-Sp-SV government; the same composition which Stoltenberg governed in from 2005 to 2013. On current polls such a government would have a fairly comfortable majority. However, Vedum has stated that the optimal government would be a government with Sp and Ap which can get support from different sides of the chamber on different issues; making deals on oil, immigration, law and order etc. with Høyre and deals on decentralization, alleviation of rural poverty etc. with SV. During the summer, Sp sources even stated that if Støre proposed including SV in the government, the party would leave government negotiations and that a Ap government would be preferable to a Ap-Sp-SV government. However, Vedum's preferred Sp-Ap government has only had a majority on itself in the very best of polls, so would likely need at least one party to support it. If KrF comes above the threshold, there is speculation that they could be an option. SV, on the other hand, would like the most left-wing government possible and preferably with the Oslo option, Ap-SV-MDG & Rødt, which is currently a few seats away from a majority. And while SV would like to be in government again, the presence of two parties to their left could raise their demands and complicate government negotiations further.

The Norwegian electoral system uses PR to distribute the 169 seats. The vast majority of the seats, 150, are distributed in the 19 electoral regions. They used to correspond to the 19 administrative regions, but with the Regional Reform in 2020, there are now only 11 regions in Norway. In the electoral regions, the seats are distributed proportionally via Sainte-Laguë’s modified method. The remaining 19 seats are leveling seats, one in each electoral region. They are distributed to parties, who reach at least 4% nationwide, to make their share of the seats closer resemble their share of the votes. This means that you can win a seat in a region without getting access to the leveling seats; e.g. in 2017 both MDG and Rødt won a seat in Oslo but less than 4% nationwide, so they have only had 1 MP in parliament this term. The low share of leveling seats (only 11%) means that the system benefits the bigger parties seatwise as there aren't enough leveling seats to compensate for the big parties' advantages in the regional distribution. It also means that there can be some random leveling seats awarded where the deserving parties will get the leveling seat from regions where they didn't perform very well. In 2017, Venstre received the leveling seats in Nord-Trøndelag and Oppland, where they received 2.2% and 2.6% respectively. It's almost impossible to break the party lists in national elections, so the personal votes normally doesn't matter.

Current polling average from pollofpolls.no (compared to 2017)

Arbeiderpartiet 24.0% (-3.4%) 44 seats (-5)
Høyre 19.9% (-5.1%) 36 (-9)
Fremskrittspartiet 10.3% (-4.9%) 19 (-8)
Senterpartiet 16.5% (+6.2%) 33 (+14)
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 8.5% (+2.5%) 16 (+5)
Venstre 3.9% (-0.5%) 2 (-6)
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.4% (-1.0%) 1 (-7)
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 4.6% (+1.4%) 9 (+8)
Rødt 5.1% (+2.7%) 9 (+8)

So right now, we have the opposite situation of 2017 around the threshold. Back then, both V and KrF made it over the threshold, while MDG and Rødt didn't make it. This reversal means that on such a result, the opposition parties would almost get double the seats of the current governing majority (111 seats to 58). If any or both of the centre-right parties get above the 4% threshold + a little tightening in the polls, we could end in a situation without a Ap-Sp-SV majority, which would really make government negotiations fraught. Sp would have more centrist seats to aim towards, and an opposition majority would have to include both Sp and MDG/Rødt.

[Flyersfan232]

Rooting for Senterpartiet.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Which faction of the Labour Party is Jonas Gahr Støre considered to belong in? More to the left-labour wing or the more third way side? Or perhaps even a bridge candidate between the two factions?

[Oryxslayer]

Which faction of the Labour Party is Jonas Gahr Støre considered to belong in? More to the left-labour wing or the more third way side? Or perhaps even a bridge candidate between the two factions?

Also, how did he remain at the helm after 2017. I remember looking at the results on my phone in Uni and thinking that an inability to either reverse Labour's decline or win control through a left government meant ouster.

[Diouf]

I was also surprised that Støre was allowed to stay as leader after the poor result in 2017. One analysis I found said that the party lacked real leadership candidates. And the few who were perhaps candidates, would be unpalatable for one wing of the party. That was probably especially true for deputy leader Hadia Tajik, who is clearly a part of the party's urban leftliberal wing, and whom the right wing dislikes. And that dislike has grown after Hajik played the key part in orchestrating the #metoo accusations which caused the downfall of the party's other deputy leader, Trond Giske, from the right wing of the party.

And I think Støre is just fairly well-liked by most of the party. The left is/was probably a bit skeptical about his close bond with Hareide in KrF in the failed attempt to move KrF to the centre-left side, and Støre's rejection of depending on MDG and Rødt (but I guess he would if he had to). But on actual policy announcements, I remember being surprised in 2017 by how clearly left-wing his announcements were on both tax&spend and immigration. On green issues, he has been less brave, which probably explains a fair bit of the leakage towards the left.

[H. Ross Peron]

Why is the Center Party surging so much at the expense of virtually all others? Are they making inroads in urban areas?

[Diouf]

Why is the Center Party surging so much at the expense of virtually all others? Are they making inroads in urban areas?

They are rising in most/all regions, but they are still very much rural-focused and their biggest criticism of Høyre and Frp is their centralizing reforms. They have picked up the colourful Jan Bøhler from Ap in Oslo; he led Ap's Oslo organization from 2004-2016 and has been a MP since 2005. He thought Ap was ignoring crime and social problems in areas of the city and the Oslo Council being too green.

NRK just published polls of all electoral regions. They are up from 2.1% to 3.7% in Oslo. So almost doubling, but from a very low base. They are also set to make significant gains in the traditional highlands in rural regions like Møre og Romsdal (from 29.7% to 37.3%) and Nord-Trøndelag (from 24.4% to 32.9%)

http://www.pollofpolls.no/?cmd=Maling

[perpetual_cynic]

Do you think Labour or the Conservatives will be the largest party in Oslo? Also, I was curious if the Socialist Left and Greens increase vote share, are they pulling these votes at the expense of Labour or another party?

[DC Al Fine]

Are borrowed votes from a major party to keep a smaller one over the threshhold common in Norway?

[Diouf]

The first big party leader debate was yesterday on NRK 1. The first 55 minutes of the two hour debate was spent on climate. The rest was on taxation, economy and Afghanistan. Things started off with a remarkably heated exchange between Vedum and Lysbakken about the idea of zones in Oslo and Bergen, where diesel and petrol cars aren't allowed to drive. The red-green city cabinets in the two cities have allowed for permission to do this. In the past week, Vedum drove his diesel car into the centre of Oslo to protest this, and in the debate he hammered Lysbakken for supporting a proposal which would ban poor persons from being able to drive into the city centre. Lysbakken said that it was mostly the rich suits who lives and drives there anyway, and they can afford changing to an electric car. Generally, Sp and FrP were the most reluctant to commit to big initiatives on climate, while Rødt and MDG were pushing the most wide-ranging efforts. Bastholm from MDG said the party wouldn't support a government, which wouldn't agree to stop looking for more oil.

Generally, I think both the junior government parties looked relatively weak in the debate. Both of the leaders, Ropstad and Melby, are in charge in their first general election. Particularly Ropstad looked quite wooden and technocratic, but did get a duel with Rødt where he could defend KrF's favourite thing, kontantstøtte(cash benefits for parents staying at home with 1-2 year old instead of sending them to kindergarten). Lysbakken from SV was probably the best, and seemed quite confident and competent. Solberg - Støre seemed quite equal to me, while I think Vedum was perhaps a bit too angry and on the attack. Normally, he can seem quite charming and funny, but was perhaps feeling the pressure a bit as the party is sliding in the polls. A recent Kantar poll for TV2 has them down to 13.7%. On the far left, Bastholm was quite aggressive while Moxnes more played the calm (and boring) teacher role. Listhaug managed to get immigration into her remarks a few times, when discussing taxation and Afghanistan, but it's hard to judge how well it worked, particularly as none of the others really engaged her at any point.

Average of grades (from 1-6) for the debate from Dagbladet, Nettavisen, VG & TV2. Although I was tempted to take out TV2, who gave out some very weird grades and markedly different from the others.
Støre (Ap) 4.5
Lysbakken (SV) 4.25
Solberg (H) 3.75
Bastholm (MDG) 3.75
Vedum (Sp) 3.5
Melby (V) 3.25
Listhaug (FrP) 3
Moxnes (R) 3
Ropstad (KrF) 2.25

[Diouf]

Do you think Labour or the Conservatives will be the largest party in Oslo?

In NRK's most recent poll, they are quite equal. Ap on 25.1% and Høyre on 24.9%. Like in many cities, there's a big chunk of voters to the left of the Social Democrats. SV, MDG and Rødt are on 30.3% combined.

Also, I was curious if the Socialist Left and Greens increase vote share, are they pulling these votes at the expense of Labour or another party?

You can see all movements between parties here, based on five August polls.
Look under the headline "Netto overganger mellom partiene, hele tusen", which shows net movements between the parties: http://www.pollofpolls.no/?cmd=Kommentarer&do=vis&kommentarid=3076

They have SV gaining 74.000 votes net, mostly from those who couldn't/didn't vote in 2017 and Ap. It's the same picture for MDG and Rødt. Most other net movements are very small; the 7.000 voters from Sp to Rødt is the only remaining movement over 5.000 voters.

For the other parties, as expected, we see Sp winning votes from H, Frp and Ap. In this average, they seem to actually gain fairly equally, around 40.000 voters net from all three. Ap also picks up 35.000 from Høyre. And then remarkably, FrP is losing 39.000 voters to "Others"!. Most of these votes are probably going to Demokratene (Democrats), a minor right-wing party which seems to have picked up some steam since former FrP Oslo local politician Geir Ugland Jacobsen joined them and became leader. He was banned from FrP after a number of statements, supporting Trump's election conspiracy etc. In most polls, they aren't shown separately. But there was one Ipsos poll, which showed them on 3.1 % and winning one seat. Other than that, it sound like they are between 1-2%.

[Diouf]

Are borrowed votes from a major party to keep a smaller one over the threshhold common in Norway?

There was a lot of talk in 2017 about Høyre voters helping Venstre above the threshold. From what I can see, 36% of all Venstre voters in 2017 came from the big centre-right party. So there certainly was a big movement, but I haven't seen any research about how much of it was indeed tactical. We didn't see something similar on the left where both MDG and Rødt ended below the threshold, despite polls showing in advance that at least MDG was just around the threshold. Maybe, it was more difficult because they were parties who hadn't been past the threshold before, or just because there weren't enough Ap voters willing to consider a tactical vote.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is MDG far left? I always viewed them as a relatively realo Green Party focused mostly on the environment, to the right of SV.

[Diouf]

Is MDG far left? I always viewed them as a relatively realo Green Party focused mostly on the environment, to the right of SV.

Term definitions are always tricky. "Furthest left" probably more neutral. In a debate, that was so focused on climate and where Bastholm didn't participate much on the other issues, she certainly appeared as in a battle with Rødt for the position furthest to the left. The party wants to abolish the Norwegian oil industry before 2035, which is very radical. Dagbladet wrote about the debate: "Une Bastholm is in front of the most radical climate policy in the panel. She succeded, because she manages the details, and can convey the seriousness on the issue. She was more aggressive than usual. Disappears a bit in the equality debate, but tried with a decent defense of redistribution with a climate perspective. The party lacks confidence in other policy areas." TV2 wrote:"When two thirds of a debate is about climate, I had expected more of the now quite experienced MDG-leader. She has the advantage of not having to contemplate government alternatives. Is uncompromising and alone in wanting to abolish Norwegian oil industry before 2035, but does not manage to sufficiently dominate the debate, which had so much climate in it." So quite different views on her performance, but conveys how radical it sounds.

Generally, I see them as very similar to the Danish Alternative, and their position in relation to SV/SPP and Rødt/Red-Greens. They are less willing to compromise than SV/SPP, and certainly further away from government than them. In relation to the traditional socialist/ex-communist party, they have a different vibe, but will end up voting similar to each other on most issues. They are pro-EU and have a entrepreneurial streak, but mostly in relation to green business.

[Diouf]

Another really poor poll (Respons for VG/Bergens Tidende) for Sp. Down to 11.3%, and are now only the 4th largest party. Their collapse plus the fact that all parties are above the threshold means that Ap+Sp+SV now only combine for 79 seats, six seats short of a majority. Therefore Rødt or MDG is needed. Solberg is trying to take advantage of that situation by warning voters that a centre-left government would have to cater to the extremes: "Støre and Vedum will be dependent on SV and Rødt or MDG. The training wheels will be bigger than the bike. This means that infrastructure projects will be put on ice, there will be less choice for patients in the health sector and the priority on knowledge and presence in the education system will be dropped. The influence of the radical parties will mean a Red-Green mystery package, which would only be opened after the election."

http://www.pollofpolls.no/?cmd=Maling&gallupid=4433

[Astatine]

Considering the likely scenario that Høyre will lose, what is Erna Solberg's political future? I think I have read somewhere she already excluded to be active on international level and that she intends to remain in Parliament. She's been Høyre leader for 17 years now, would she just retire from that post in the next legislative period? Who would succeed her? Or is there a chance she'd be in for a re-match in 2025?

Sorry for the bunch of questions.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Is immigration still a mjore issues ?

[Diouf]

Is immigration still a mjore issues ?

Not so far. Not in the coverage, and not in the polls I've seen either. Perhaps the Afghanistan situation can give it a renewed focus. The media has been filled with climate coverage, particularly after the UN climate report, and it has risen as a topic in polling, towards the top along with health, social differences and economy.

[Diouf]

Considering the likely scenario that Høyre will lose, what is Erna Solberg's political future? I think I have read somewhere she already excluded to be active on international level and that she intends to remain in Parliament. She's been Høyre leader for 17 years now, would she just retire from that post in the next legislative period? Who would succeed her? Or is there a chance she'd be in for a re-match in 2025?

Sorry for the bunch of questions.

It would be quite surprised if she continued. She is already the longest sitting Høyre leader, and the election result looks like a drop for Høyre and a clear defeat for the centre-right side.

I think it's quite open who will become leader after her, and I haven't seen that much speculation or know Høyre's inner machine well enough. I have seen a lot of praise for Tina Bru, the Minister for Oil and second deputy leader, but at 35 years of age, this is perhaps a bit too soon. Foreign Minister, Ine Marie Eriksen Søreide, seems fairly popular, but maybe she is too much Oslo and globalism. Several other of the current ministers could probably be in play.

[Diouf]

NRK has an article about which parties are getting votes in the "other" category in polls.
In the latest Norstat/NRK poll, others were all the way up to 5.8%, a very high note. But the others also have a fair bit of voters in most other polls, usually between 3-5%.

In the NRK polling, it was unsurprisingly the Democrats, who were the biggest party, with 1.9%. It is a real thorn in the side for FrP with a party attacking them from the right, and it's no surprise that they often poll horribly in polls where the "Other" category is significant. If Listhaug is to get FrP through this election with an okay-ish result, she must really hope that the Democrats don't lift further, so that they get a lot of media focus and speculation around whether they could get above the threshold. If they stay mostly anonymous and always in the "Other" category, they could perhaps be squeezed during the campaign.

The second largest other is the Pensioners' Party on 1.1%. That would be the party's best result ever, beating the 1.0% from 1993. In the last three general elections, they only received 0.4%. And there is of course a lot of uncertainty on such low polling figures. Third highest is the Capitalist Party (litt. the Liberalists) on 0.6%. They actually have a quite famous candidate in Per Sandberg, the former FrP deputy leader, Minister of Fisheries and MP for 20 years, who joined the party last year and is running 2nd on the list in Akershus.

Additional parties, who received one or two votes in the poll were the Industy and Business party, the Christians, Centre Party (led by Geir Lippestad, defence lawyer for Anders Breivik and 2015-17 in the Oslo city cabinet for Ap with responsibility for business), the Alliance (alt-right, neo-nazi), the Pirate Party, the Health Party and the local health party Patient Focus in Finnmark.


https://www.nrk.no/norge/fleire-vurderer-minipartia-_-demokratane-veks-1.15615618

[Astatine]

https://twitter.com/Nassreddin2002/status/1430635349500481541

Sp dropping harder than my grades

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Is there any particular reason for the Centre Party's sudden and steep drop? It feels quite normal for people to coalesce around the big parties so I'd make sense for some to return to Ap and H just because election day is getting closer, but this seems a bit more dramatic.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I wonder if it's temperamentally conservative voters worried about the prospect of legitimising SV, Red and Greens. They had their fun poking at the government over killing wolves but although they can stomach AP, they wouldn't be able to handle the left entourage.

[Diouf]

It seems like they are losing voters in many directions, according to the latest post from pollofpolls. There is quite some uncertainty in the numbers, but compared to January, where the party was at 20.7%, they see the following changes.

Loyalty of SP 2017 voters: Down from 85% to 65%
Net gain from Ap 2017 voters: From 70.000 voters to 19.000 voters
Net gain from H 2017 voters: From 55.000 voters to 28.000 voters
Net gain from FrP 2017 voters: From 57.000 voters to 18.000 voters.

So there could be multiple explanations.
It certainly seems right that the topic of centralization is less prominent now than during the term when the regional reform, the police reform, defence reform etc. was made. During that time, they could be the vehicle for dissatisfied H + FrP voters, while also being the most prominent opposition voice and therefore attracting centre-left opponents of the government from Ap.
Now that topic is less central, while climate change has dominated new coverage. A topic where they are more on the defensive. And so opposition voters, who looked towards Sp for their criticism of centralization could be back with Ap for health policies, or even with one of the further left parties for their climate stance.
To their right, FrP is now further removed from their time in cabinet, so can distance themselves a bit more from the decisions made there and be freer to talk about their own stances.
Voters could be thinking more about who they want as PM, which could draw voters back towards Solberg or Støre instead of a bumplin bumpkin type like Vedum. Sp have maybe drawn extra attention to this by promoting Vedum as PM candidate. And Afghanistan puts foreign policy somewhat back on the agenda, which is favouring Solberg and Støre to Vedum further.

http://www.pollofpolls.no/?cmd=Kommentarer&do=vis&kommentarid=3099

[Diouf]

In the polling average, all four smaller parties are now above the threshold. And only really KrF is close to the line with 4.1% on average, and below the threshold almost as often as they are over it.

Pollofpolls.no average
Ap 23.3% (42 seats)
H 20.3% (35)
Frp 10.8% (20)
SV 10.0% (17)
Sp 12.2% (22)
KrF 4.1% (7)
V 4.9% (8 )
MDG 5.1% (9)
R 5.0% (9)

This gives the opposition parties 99 seats while the current majority parties have 70 seats. There is no majority for Ap-Sp-SV (81 seats) nor for Ap-SV-MDG-R (77 seats), so that would lead us to the scenario where both Sp and MDG/R are needed for a majority.

NRK made an article about the new Rødt voters here. It says the party is overrepresented among students, service workers and health care workers. However, some of the party's recent gains are among workers in the industry with shorter or no formal education. The party still has a fair bit of highly educated voters, particularly academics in the public sector, but the party has lost urban voters in that segment to MDG.
https://www.nrk.no/norge/xl/det-rode-skiftet-1.15629783