Norwegian General Election 13 September 2021

[YL]

Something striking is that on the Nynorsk Wikipedia page for Framstegspartiet, the logo in the infobox nonetheless reads Fremksrittspartiet. The implication, I guess, is that no FrP voters use Nynorsk anyway, which seems like it might be accurate. Either way it's amusing.

There are areas where both FrP and Nynorsk are relatively strong, most obviously Møre og Romsdal, which FrP carried and which is one of a couple of counties where Nynorsk has been officially adopted by the county.  I don't know what the explanation is for FrP's strength in that area.

I'd guess the most overrepresented party among Nynorsk users is Centre, though.

[Ethelberth]

Traditionally it was synonyme for Venstre support.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Boobs]

Really imagined you as a Nynorsk advocate, Al. But great map nonetheless!

[Diouf]

Kjell Inge Ropstad is resigning as KrF leader. Yesterday Aftenposten revealed further information about the degree to which he has taken advantage of the parliamentary housing rules. When he became a minister in 2019, he was able to get a ministerial house in Oslo. However, a minister must pay taxes of such a house unless he has expenses to his own house in the home district. In the first year as minister Ropstad did not report any expenses to his home adress, which as you might recall is his parents' home. This meant a tax bill of 144 000 NOK. Ropstad perhaps tired of this, so in 2020 when he was asked the yearly question of whether he had any expenses to his own house, he suddenly claimed that he did have expenses to his own home. He asked his parents to send him documentation of their expenses, which then claimed was his own expenses. Thereby avoiding a tax bill of 175 000 NOK.

[YL]

Why is Progress so strong in Møre og Romsdal?  Fishing related issues somehow?

[Lord Halifax]

Why is Progress so strong in Møre og Romsdal?  Fishing related issues somehow?

It's Sylvi Listhaug's home county. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Note that this is the same key as the earlier county/electoral district map, but extended. An Oslo specific key wouldn't have been that different, but would show a slight elevation in the SP vote in the east of the city (over 5%). Specific results for Sentrum (one polling district) do exist, specific results for the Oslo Marches (which are hacked between many different polling districts) do not.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

An Oslo specific key wouldn't have been that different, but would show a slight elevation in the SP vote in the east of the city (over 5%).

Which, for the benefit of readers, is (IIRC) the stomping grounds of Jan Bøhler, the former leader of Ap in Oslo, who defected to SP before this election.

[Diouf]

SV has left the government negotiations! Audun Lysbakken says: "It's hugely disappointing for us to recognize that there is no political basis to form a red-green government. Ap and Sp haven't been able to bend enough to make a majority government possible. We needed a government with a strong SV footprint, a more forceful policy against inequality and strong climate and nature policies". He particularly says that SV wanted to roll back the tax cuts by the former centre-right government, that they wanted tough measures against profit in welfare institutions like kindergartens, and that they wanted an ambitious climate target, including a stop for new oil exploration. These were the main wedges between the parties.
Quite surprisingly to me, Ap and Sp are then allowed to procede with government negotiations and presumably to form one. I would have guessed that SV would have then at least insisted that Sp shouldn't be in government either. Now it looks like we will get Vedum's preferred government, and therefore I guess also his wish that some policy areas, like oil, immigration and justice, are carried through with the centre-right parties. If it ends up with Ap-Sp, Støre will have a very manoeuvrable government which will only need nine seat support to pass any measure, but also one with a significant opposition both to the left and the right. 

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Note that this is the same key as the earlier county/electoral district map, but extended. An Oslo specific key wouldn't have been that different, but would show a slight elevation in the SP vote in the east of the city (over 5%). Specific results for Sentrum (one polling district) do exist, specific results for the Oslo Marches (which are hacked between many different polling districts) do not.

Could someone who is familiar with Oslo give us a rundown of how these results line up with the class nature of the neighborhoods? Obviously right-wing generally corresponds with more affluent and vice-versa, but what neighborhoods are the rich neighborhoods, broader upper class, median neighborhoods, below-average, and very poor?

Do we know share of immigrants and concentration of blue vs. white collar vs. professional?

What kind of neighborhoods is Red performing best in? Is Ap a mix of working class but also more middle class? Does Hoyre get decent results in the more middle class areas as well? How about Frp, what kind of place are their strongest neighborhoods?

[Alcibiades]

Note that this is the same key as the earlier county/electoral district map, but extended. An Oslo specific key wouldn't have been that different, but would show a slight elevation in the SP vote in the east of the city (over 5%). Specific results for Sentrum (one polling district) do exist, specific results for the Oslo Marches (which are hacked between many different polling districts) do not.

Could someone who is familiar with Oslo give us a rundown of how these results line up with the class nature of the neighborhoods? Obviously right-wing generally corresponds with more affluent and vice-versa, but what neighborhoods are the rich neighborhoods, broader upper class, median neighborhoods, below-average, and very poor?

Do we know share of immigrants and concentration of blue vs. white collar vs. professional?

What kind of neighborhoods is Red performing best in? Is Ap a mix of working class but also more middle class? Does Hoyre get decent results in the more middle class areas as well? How about Frp, what kind of place are their strongest neighborhoods?

Very simplistically, I believe that the main divide is between the richer West and the more working class East, which is broadly reflected in the elections results, with H being stronger in the former, and Ap in the latter. However, Ap aren’t necessarily performing their best the very poorest districts, where Rødt appear to have greater relative strength. There also seems to be a centre vs. periphery phenomenon at play here, where Ap do best in the lower-middle class suburbs while Rødt and SV are stronger closer to the city centre, where I imagine the presence of alternative quarters with younger populations might help them. This blogpost by a local Oslo SV politician contains a variety of useful demographic maps of the city’s districts.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

snip

Could someone who is familiar with Oslo give us a rundown of how these results line up with the class nature of the neighborhoods? Obviously right-wing generally corresponds with more affluent and vice-versa, but what neighborhoods are the rich neighborhoods, broader upper class, median neighborhoods, below-average, and very poor?

Do we know share of immigrants and concentration of blue vs. white collar vs. professional?

What kind of neighborhoods is Red performing best in? Is Ap a mix of working class but also more middle class? Does Hoyre get decent results in the more middle class areas as well? How about Frp, what kind of place are their strongest neighborhoods?

Very simplistically, I believe that the main divide is between the richer West and the more working class East, which is broadly reflected in the elections results, with H being stronger in the former, and Ap in the latter. However, Ap aren’t necessarily performing their best the very poorest districts, where Rødt appear to have greater relative strength. There also seems to be a centre vs. periphery phenomenon at play here, where Ap do best in the lower-middle class suburbs while Rødt and SV are stronger closer to the city centre, where I imagine the presence of alternative quarters with younger populations might help them. This blogpost by a local Oslo SV politician contains a variety of useful demographic maps of the city’s districts.

So, they're basically just the new Socialist Left Party then? Typical post-communism urban left party with a mix of working class, immigrants, and young New Left types, but even more urban and more left-wing?

[H. Ross Peron]

Note that this is the same key as the earlier county/electoral district map, but extended. An Oslo specific key wouldn't have been that different, but would show a slight elevation in the SP vote in the east of the city (over 5%). Specific results for Sentrum (one polling district) do exist, specific results for the Oslo Marches (which are hacked between many different polling districts) do not.

Could someone who is familiar with Oslo give us a rundown of how these results line up with the class nature of the neighborhoods? Obviously right-wing generally corresponds with more affluent and vice-versa, but what neighborhoods are the rich neighborhoods, broader upper class, median neighborhoods, below-average, and very poor?

Do we know share of immigrants and concentration of blue vs. white collar vs. professional?

What kind of neighborhoods is Red performing best in? Is Ap a mix of working class but also more middle class? Does Hoyre get decent results in the more middle class areas as well? How about Frp, what kind of place are their strongest neighborhoods?

Very simplistically, I believe that the main divide is between the richer West and the more working class East, which is broadly reflected in the elections results, with H being stronger in the former, and Ap in the latter. However, Ap aren’t necessarily performing their best the very poorest districts, where Rødt appear to have greater relative strength. There also seems to be a centre vs. periphery phenomenon at play here, where Ap do best in the lower-middle class suburbs while Rødt and SV are stronger closer to the city centre, where I imagine the presence of alternative quarters with younger populations might help them. This blogpost by a local Oslo SV politician contains a variety of useful demographic maps of the city’s districts.

Reminds me a bit of Copenhagens electoral patterns.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

snip

Could someone who is familiar with Oslo give us a rundown of how these results line up with the class nature of the neighborhoods? Obviously right-wing generally corresponds with more affluent and vice-versa, but what neighborhoods are the rich neighborhoods, broader upper class, median neighborhoods, below-average, and very poor?

Do we know share of immigrants and concentration of blue vs. white collar vs. professional?

What kind of neighborhoods is Red performing best in? Is Ap a mix of working class but also more middle class? Does Hoyre get decent results in the more middle class areas as well? How about Frp, what kind of place are their strongest neighborhoods?

Very simplistically, I believe that the main divide is between the richer West and the more working class East, which is broadly reflected in the elections results, with H being stronger in the former, and Ap in the latter. However, Ap aren’t necessarily performing their best the very poorest districts, where Rødt appear to have greater relative strength. There also seems to be a centre vs. periphery phenomenon at play here, where Ap do best in the lower-middle class suburbs while Rødt and SV are stronger closer to the city centre, where I imagine the presence of alternative quarters with younger populations might help them. This blogpost by a local Oslo SV politician contains a variety of useful demographic maps of the city’s districts.

So, they're basically just the new Socialist Left Party then? Typical post-communism urban left party with a mix of working class, immigrants, and young New Left types, but even more urban and more left-wing?

My understanding is that these days the Socialist Left Party's electorate has a lean towards public-sector workers, primarily female public-sector workers, while Red's electorate has a lean towards younger working-class men. I suppose Warren 2020 v. Sanders 2016 would be a crude, but not terrible analogy.

[Diouf]

Støre and Vedum announced yesterday that they have agreed to form a government.
The government programme will be presented on Wednesday, and then the new cabinet is expected on Thursday.


https://www.nrk.no/norge/store_-_-vi-er-enige-om-a-danne-regjering-1.15683260

[Diouf]

Today the new Ap-Sp cabinet presented its platform. Støre will be PM and Vedum Minister of Finance. The whole cabinet will be presented tomorrow. I have listed some of the initiatives in the government programme below. Overall the parties agreed that the overall tax burden will stay the same. They want to reduce income taxes for people earning less than 750.000 NOK a year, while increasing duties on expensive cars, removing share deductions and increase the wealth tax. Senterpartiet got its way on the new regions, where the regions Troms og Finnmark & Viken will be dissolved back into its earlier smaller parts if they wish (Troms og Finnmark has already said they want this). On climate, the overall goal will be to reduce emissions by 55% in 2030. It will still be possible to explore new oil fields. The carbon tax will be increased. On relations to EU, the current deal will be maintained, but there will be made an analysis of the relation to the EU in the last ten years plus an overview of other countries' deals with EU. They do want to stay out of the EU's railway package.

Dental care free from 19-21 years, and half the price from 22-25 years.
Free after-school activities for first graders + changing first grade into something between kindergarten and school.
Reduce prices for kindergarten
Remove the au pair programme
Limit the possibility of the programme which allows you to get paid for taking care of your small child at home. It will only be possible for 18 months after birth compared to 24 months after birth now.
Start introducing school meals
Start introducing daily exercise in schools
Limit the possibilities of temporary employment
Stop the growth of salaries for public sector leaders
Increased tax deductions for union membership + commute expenses.
Open 20 new local police offices
Move out state jobs from Oslo to the rest of the country
Reduce wolf and bear numbers
Cheaper ferries
Investigate building railway to Northern Norway
Prioritize taking refugees through the UN programs. The exact number of UN refugees is not mentioned, but will be determined "with an eye to the number of spontaneus asylum seekers".
Abortion will be a free vote in parliament, which will lead to some liberalization of the law (although probably not change much in practice).

[Astatine]

Didn't the new government also promise to consider building a new hospital in the northern town of Alta, a plan which would eradicate Patient Fokus' cause of existence?

[Diouf]

Didn't the new government also promise to consider building a new hospital in the northern town of Alta, a plan which would eradicate Patient Fokus' cause of existence?

It's a very vague line about "following up on the process about developing specialized health care services at Clinic Alta". Doesn't seem to me like promising anything at all, and that's how newspapers interpret it as well. The Alta Hospital FB groups are also unhappy.

[Diouf]

Støre presented the new cabinet today. Ap's prominent deputy leader Hadia Tajik will be Minister of Employment and Integration, while their former Minister of Defense and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Espen Barth Eide, will become the Minister of Climate and Environment. Anniken Huitfeldt, who held several different posts in Stoltenberg's cabinets, is the new Foreign Minister. Marte Mjøs Persen, who until recently was Mayor in Bergen will become Minister for Oil and Energy for Ap. For Sp it was quite surprising that well-known names like Marit Arnstad, Geir Pollestad og Sigbjørn Gjelsvik didn't get a seat in cabinet. Instead the only 28-year old Emilie Enger Mehl becomes Minister of Justice and 33-year old Sandra Borch is the new Minister for Food and Agriculture.

[Mike88]

Not sure if to either create a new thread or post here, but anyway.

Norway is set to hold local elections in around 3 weeks, on 11 September, and polls are predicting a historic win for Høyre, the Conservative Party. The last available poll for the local elections:

However, Høyre seems to have been losing a bit in the polls, but the Labour Party is not benefiting from this and the poll loses from Høyre seem to be going to other smaller parties.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Conventionally a new thread would be appropriate, otherwise things get messy, unwieldy and a bit weird.