PA 13

[Mr.Phips]

My question is what the heck we are going to do when Jim Gerlach decides to retire in PA-06. I mean that district was created just for him and when he retires is there anyone that could prevent its loss. If that happens we will never gain back a majority in the Pennsylvania congressional delegation.

As weird as it sounds, while the district was made for Gerlach, I think we'll have an easier time holding it when he leaves.

I dont know.  That district continues to trend Democratic and Gerlach is probably the perfect Republican for that district, pro-labor and socially moderate. 

Being "Pro Labor' isn't exactly ideal for PA 6.

Being overwhelming anti-labor like Pat Toomey aint gonna play well here either. 

Toomey was elected and re-elected in an area that is more in tune with labor issues than PA 6 will ever be so I don't understand what you're trying to prove.

PA 6 has a lot of wealthy voters (the Main Line) and the more middle class areas are rather socially conservative.

I assume Main Line is in Montgomery county?  I dont see how Republican this area is since it gave John Kerry over 60% of the vote. 

[Keystone Phil]

Pro-labor is anathema to the Country Club crowd that lives in the Main Line. It never fails to amuse me that liberal Bryn Mawr College is situated in a tony Republican town.

Bingo

That sums it all up.

Speaking of labor -- this AFL-CIO anti-Gerlach web video is my favorite of the '06 campaign.

Gerlach staffer: (preppy looking guy in Ralph Lauren jacket): You guys live here?
Both AFL-CIO guys (dressed in schlubby clothes): Yeah
Gerlach staffer: You look pretty not local

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=70oYnw3Nh9U

Those guys scream NE Philly (PA 13), definitely not PA 6.

Pretty pathetic on both sides, to be honest.

[Keystone Phil]

I assume Main Line is in Montgomery county?  I dont see how Republican this area is since it gave John Kerry over 60% of the vote. 

Did I ever say it was a "Republican area?" Not at all. Don't twist what I said. I said that your characterization of it being a "Pro Labor" area/not a place for Toomey economics is so very, very wrong and I have been backed up by one of the most partisan Democrats on the forum (who happens to know the district very well).

[MarkWarner08]

I assume Main Line is in Montgomery county?  I dont see how Republican this area is since it gave John Kerry over 60% of the vote. 

Did I ever say it was a "Republican area?" Not at all. Don't twist what I said. I said that your characterization of it being a "Pro Labor" area/not a place for Toomey economics is so very, very wrong and I have been backed up by one of the most partisan Democrats on the forum (who happens to know the district very well).

I'm one of the "most partisan Democrats on the forum"?  I'm only partisan when it comes to NC-08 and OR-Sen. Of course, I am bullish about Larry Joe's chances TX-10, which boosts my hack cred.

I definitely agree with what KeystonePhil says about this area. Bible-toters, gun-lovers, and  creationism-lovers scare these Arlen Specter-backing, BMW-driving, WSJ-reading, European vacation-taking, Yale-graduating, east coast elitists. On economic issues, they trust the GOP. These Arlen Specter Republicans will vote Democratic when presented with a choice between a MA lib and a Texas con. Which is why Kerry scored so well in the Mont. Co. area.

[Spaghetti Cat]

Apperently Katrina or Marina or whatever her name is just dumped 300g's into her campaign fund.

[MarkWarner08]

Apperently Katrina or Marina or whatever her name is just dumped 300g's into her campaign fund.

LOL. This is like that rich Democrat who is running in LA-01. These candidates should just make direct deposits to the college tuition funds for the children of their campaign consultants.

[Keystone Phil]

Apperently Katrina or Marina or whatever her name is just dumped 300g's into her campaign fund.

Marina Kats  

She has the ability to do so. She's a wealthy lawyer. It's still not a wise investment. Republicans are always going to experience a little tease in PA 13. Remember we even thought that Raj could upset Schwartz? The sad thing is that Kats is a more promising candidate so people are more likely to get their hopes up. Best case for her - McCain helps her out in the NE Philly parts and even certain areas in Montco, she gets a good deal of Jewish support and Schwartz is caught napping for most of the campaign. Even then, her best case is probably a six to ten point loss.

[MarkWarner08]

Republicans are always going to experience a little tease in PA 13. Remember we even thought that Raj could upset Schwartz?

"We"? Didn't you mean "I," as in hyper-optimistic KeystonePhil?

You were once as much of a hack about this race as I was about Gerlach. At least you didn't write a post called "Schwartz is a goner," as I did for Gerlach.

[TeePee4Prez]

Apperently Katrina or Marina or whatever her name is just dumped 300g's into her campaign fund.

Marina Kats 

She has the ability to do so. She's a wealthy lawyer. It's still not a wise investment. Republicans are always going to experience a little tease in PA 13. Remember we even thought that Raj could upset Schwartz? The sad thing is that Kats is a more promising candidate so people are more likely to get their hopes up. Best case for her - McCain helps her out in the NE Philly parts and even certain areas in Montco, she gets a good deal of Jewish support and Schwartz is caught napping for most of the campaign. Even then, her best case is probably a six to ten point loss.

6 to 10 point loss is VERY optimistic Phil.  I would dare say that's optmistic for a Kanjorski win in that case.  I think Schwartz will actually pull some McCain votes due to incumbency and clout.  My call for the 13th-

Schwartz- 61
Kats- 34
Conservative 3rd party- 4
Other- 1

Obama- 54
McCain-43
Other- 3

[Keystone Phil]

Republicans are always going to experience a little tease in PA 13. Remember we even thought that Raj could upset Schwartz?

"We"? Didn't you mean "I," as in hyper-optimistic KeystonePhil?

Optimistic? I didn't want Raj. I didn't vote for him. Even ICE HOCKEY was worried about an upset.

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Well, I did say Melissa Brown was bound to be our next Congresswoman in 2004. 

Apperently Katrina or Marina or whatever her name is just dumped 300g's into her campaign fund.

Marina Kats 

She has the ability to do so. She's a wealthy lawyer. It's still not a wise investment. Republicans are always going to experience a little tease in PA 13. Remember we even thought that Raj could upset Schwartz? The sad thing is that Kats is a more promising candidate so people are more likely to get their hopes up. Best case for her - McCain helps her out in the NE Philly parts and even certain areas in Montco, she gets a good deal of Jewish support and Schwartz is caught napping for most of the campaign. Even then, her best case is probably a six to ten point loss.

6 to 10 point loss is VERY optimistic Phil.  I would dare say that's optmistic for a Kanjorski win in that case.  I think Schwartz will actually pull some McCain votes due to incumbency and clout.  My call for the 13th-

Schwartz- 61
Kats- 34
Conservative 3rd party- 4
Other- 1

Obama- 54
McCain-43
Other- 3

First of all, McDermott is running again as the "conservative third party" candidate. He won't pull in 4%. Maybe 1%. Secondly, "other" won't take 1% because no one else is running. I don't expect my write in and a few others to add up to that much. 

Other than that, we pretty much have it as a 60% to 40% race. I said a six to ten point loss would be the very best case scenario for Kats.

[TeePee4Prez]

Republicans are always going to experience a little tease in PA 13. Remember we even thought that Raj could upset Schwartz?

"We"? Didn't you mean "I," as in hyper-optimistic KeystonePhil?

Optimistic? I didn't want Raj. I didn't vote for him. Even ICE HOCKEY was worried about an upset.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Well, I did say Melissa Brown was bound to be our next Congresswoman in 2004. 

Apperently Katrina or Marina or whatever her name is just dumped 300g's into her campaign fund.

Marina Kats 

She has the ability to do so. She's a wealthy lawyer. It's still not a wise investment. Republicans are always going to experience a little tease in PA 13. Remember we even thought that Raj could upset Schwartz? The sad thing is that Kats is a more promising candidate so people are more likely to get their hopes up. Best case for her - McCain helps her out in the NE Philly parts and even certain areas in Montco, she gets a good deal of Jewish support and Schwartz is caught napping for most of the campaign. Even then, her best case is probably a six to ten point loss.

6 to 10 point loss is VERY optimistic Phil.  I would dare say that's optmistic for a Kanjorski win in that case.  I think Schwartz will actually pull some McCain votes due to incumbency and clout.  My call for the 13th-

Schwartz- 61
Kats- 34
Conservative 3rd party- 4
Other- 1

Obama- 54
McCain-43
Other- 3

First of all, McDermott is running again as the "conservative third party" candidate. He won't pull in 4%. Maybe 1%. Secondly, "other" won't take 1% because no one else is running. I don't expect my write in and a few others to add up to that much. 

Other than that, we pretty much have it as a 60% to 40% race. I said a six to ten point loss would be the very best case scenario for Kats.

Well, I was a smidge worried due to Raj's apparent surge in popularity and him hitting the "issue du jour" like Barletta is now.  The 11th is definitely FAR more socially conservative however.  The '06 climate definitely kept Schwartz well insulated with the war and the economy.  If those 2 issues were off the table, you bet Reagan/Rizzo Democrats will focus more on crime/punishment/cop killings and Section 8, though the latter has kinda died down as an issue.  You can also bet a GOP candidate will surely hit on those issues time and time again.   

[Keystone Phil]

I figured I should bump this for this - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PA-13




I know that the current PA 13 is different from the old PA 13 but it's still interesting to see how many repeat candidates there have been over the years.


1984 and 1986 - Hoeffel (D) runs and gets demolished by incumbent Lawrence Coughlin (R). 

1988 and 1990 - Bernard Tomkin (D) gets demolished by Coughlin.

1992 - MMM (D) defeats Jon Fox (R) in a very tight race.

1994 - Jon Fox comes back to defeat MMM in a close race.

1996 - Hoeffel returns and loses to Fox in one of the closest races in the country.

1998 - Hoeffel is back for a fourth try and beats Fox. Here's the second time that the outgoing member had a very close race the first time around but loses the rematch by about four points.

2000 - Hoeffel vs. Greenleaf (R) - this will end up breaking the streak of rematches.

2002 - Hoeffel vs. Brown (R) - close race

2004 - Brown vs. Schwartz (D) - the first time a major party candidate who has run for the seat at least two times doesn't win since Tomkin.


What a history.

[TeePee4Prez]

I think the district will be moved or merged with PA 6 or 8 when all's said and done.  Look at how far PA 13 has traveled.

[Keystone Phil]

I think the district will be moved or merged with PA 6 or 8 when all's said and done.  Look at how far PA 13 has traveled.

I'd love to be part of PA 6 or 8 but I'd prefer the 8th. I think that's more likely, too, considering where I live.

[Keystone Phil]

Over night, tons of signs for our favorite constant Constitution party candidate John McDermott were placed on traffic medians all over the NE Philly part of the district. I was kind of around your way earlier today, Flyers, and saw plenty. I'm sure you've seen them as well.

[Keystone Phil]

Prediction:

Allyson Schwartz - 60%

Marina Kats - 38%

John McDermott - 2%

[J. J.]

If I think what happens actually happens, PA-13 might be around for another 10 years, and 200-300 pages. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Prediction:

Allyson Schwartz - 60%

Marina Kats - 38%

John McDermott - 2%

Saw a few McDermott signs surprisingly.

I concur, maybe a little more for Schwartz and McDermott.

Who are you voting for?  Not always a no=brainer with you.  In fact, I can tell you I haven't been 100% happy with Allyson.  She voted for the PATRIOT and VICTORY Acts and is a bit more nanny statist than I would like.  Still voting for her tomorrow.

[Keystone Phil]

Who are you voting for?  Not always a no=brainer with you.

I'm writing in Tom Murt. I have yet to vote for the GOP nominee in PA 13 in a General. That will remain the case until we nominate a good candidate.

[Keystone Phil]

Oh...my...God...

So I'm at my polling place, putting signs up for later today. I see a car pull up with somewhat familiar signs in the back seat. The guy hobbles out...

It was John McDermott. The guy yapped my ear off for I don't know how long. Some people think this guy is just a Democratic puppet who runs to cause trouble for the GOP. I don't buy it after listening to his tirade about a slew of local Republicans. The guy is certifiable. I felt so bad, too. I told him I wasn't voting for Kats or Schwartz so he thought he might be able to get me. He kept saying how much he'd appreciate having my support/help.

And, yes, those teeth are still horrendous.

[TeePee4Prez]

Oh...my...God...

So I'm at my polling place, putting signs up for later today. I see a car pull up with somewhat familiar signs in the back seat. The guy hobbles out...

It was John McDermott. The guy yapped my ear off for I don't know how long. Some people think this guy is just a Democratic puppet who runs to cause trouble for the GOP. I don't buy it after listening to his tirade about a slew of local Republicans. The guy is certifiable. I felt so bad, too. I told him I wasn't voting for Kats or Schwartz so he thought he might be able to get me. He kept saying how much he'd appreciate having my support/help.

And, yes, those teeth are still horrendous.

When will that man stop embarassing himself?

[Keystone Phil]

Oh...my...God...

So I'm at my polling place, putting signs up for later today. I see a car pull up with somewhat familiar signs in the back seat. The guy hobbles out...

It was John McDermott. The guy yapped my ear off for I don't know how long. Some people think this guy is just a Democratic puppet who runs to cause trouble for the GOP. I don't buy it after listening to his tirade about a slew of local Republicans. The guy is certifiable. I felt so bad, too. I told him I wasn't voting for Kats or Schwartz so he thought he might be able to get me. He kept saying how much he'd appreciate having my support/help.

And, yes, those teeth are still horrendous.

When will that man stop embarassing himself?

He believes in his cause. He's making a point. He kept emphasizing to me how he's one out of eleven kids so he's used to fighting to be heard.

[Keystone Phil]

Final results:

Schwartz - 63%

Kats - 34%

McDermott - 3%


My precinct (which established itself as a true bellweather precinct in every single race race yesterday):

Schwartz - 62%

Kats - 34%

McDermott - 4% 

I bet McDermott was higher than average based on his signs at my polling place (and the lack of Kats signs). Sounds silly but probably true.

[TeePee4Prez]

Revival!!!!

Ok, we all know Allyson wants the Senate.  Who will be the Dem nominees?  GOP?  Does the GOP have a chance at getting this seat back?

[Keystone Phil]

Revival!!!!

Ok, we all know Allyson wants the Senate.  Who will be the Dem nominees?  GOP?  Does the GOP have a chance at getting this seat back?

The GOP has a chance if 2010 is absolutely terrible for the Dems. Who the hell knows who wants to run on our side. Shapiro is a strong possibility for the Dems (and he'd get the nomination rather easily) but he's also thinking about a U.S. Senate run. If I were him, I think a run for the House is clearly the best bet. Shapiro is a star but not enough of a star to beat Schwartz in a Senatorial primary (whether the field is crowded or not).