PA 13

[Kevinstat]

Who will push this thread onto it's 100th page?

Could it be me, right now, in possibly my first post on this thread?

Guess not.  Oh well.  Has any thread gone longer than this one?  I wouldn't be surprised if this one is the longest, as it started near the beginning of this "new forum."

[Kevinstat]

I hadn't looked to see how short this page was when I made my last post obviously.

[Keystone Phil]

Who will push this thread onto it's 100th page?

Could it be me, right now, in possibly my first post on this thread?

Guess not.  Oh well.  Has any thread gone longer than this one?  I wouldn't be surprised if this one is the longest, as it started near the beginning of this "new forum."

Let's not push this to 100 with unnecessary posts, please. 

Look at the forum stats at the bottom of the forum. It's something like the fourth most replied to thread and fourth most viewed thread.

[Sam Spade]

I wonder when this thread will get more page views than actual votes in the election here.

[Keystone Phil]

Lee Falgoust has withdrawn his name from the ballot. Kats vs. Schwartz this November.

[Keystone Phil]

I've decided that instead of just throwing my support to Kats, I am going to really think about writing someone in for this race again. Sadly, I voted for Raj in the primary last time but in the General, I wrote in State Representative John Taylor.  I won't do that again. This time around I may write in another State Representative (someone from Montco - a genuine conservative Republican) who was recently elected. I'm going to think about it though. If Kats really bothers me, I'll go with this write in vote. I'm always the lone write in at my precinct and the election board always knows/hates it.

Writing in for this race would mean that I have yet to vote for the Republican nominee in PA 13. How ironic.

[ottermax]

What exactly is so special about PA-13? It doesn't seem very notable, although it looks like a swing race. Why doesn't WA-08 have a topic like this; perhaps I will start one.

[Keystone Phil]

What exactly is so special about PA-13? It doesn't seem very notable, although it looks like a swing race. Why doesn't WA-08 have a topic like this; perhaps I will start one.

We've explained this before.

PA 13 is in no way a swing race this year. It was supposed to be in 2004 but for reasons discussed throughout this topic, it was not close. The reason why this topic has gotten some much attention and response is because myself and "ICE HOCKEY" are from this district and we are very passionate about our politics. It all started with the 2004 race that basically had us at each others' throats. I worked for Melissa Brown (the Republican) and ICE HOCKEY was a big Schwartz supporter. Since that heated race, it has calmed down a great deal. Schwartz is safe barring some disaster for the Dems or a meltdown on her part. We now simply talk about the dynamics of the coming race every two years since we know how it will end up (and since I have no passionate stances towards any candidate the GOP has put up here since 2004).

People are more than welcome to try a thread for their district but no one here will be able to seriously rival PA 13.

[J. J.]

The PA-13 thread, aka, The Return of the Living Dead! 

[TeePee4Prez]

What exactly is so special about PA-13? It doesn't seem very notable, although it looks like a swing race. Why doesn't WA-08 have a topic like this; perhaps I will start one.

This thread has to be Philadelphia Politics 101.  I think that would be a more fitting name since 2004.  At the time it was actually a contested race with millions of dollars towards TV ads on both sides.  EMILY's List poured in hundreds of thousands on Schwartz's behalf and at least initially, the GOP thought they had a chance at this seat.  Remember, the first election of this dreadedly Gerrymandered district in 2002 had the GOP nominee Melissa Brown up in many polls against incumbent Joe Hoeffel.  Still the dynamics of the district do represent slices of America as a whole with generally older and more blue collar/law enforcement workers in Northeast Philadelphia and  younger, more white collar professionals in Montgomery County.  This means you'll have more social conservatism in NE Philly as opposed to social liberalism in Montgomery County and vice versa on economic issues.  I'll still contend the overall makeup of the district is left of center, but given a good year and candidate for the GOP who can excite a particular base, this can be a hotly contested race.  The district is not quite Berkeley, but it's far from Alabama.

[Keystone Phil]

Remember, the first election of this dreadedly Gerrymandered district in 2002 had the GOP nominee Melissa Brown up in many polls against incumbent Joe Hoeffel.

She wasn't leading in "many" polls. I'm actually wondering if she led in any. That race only became really competitive in the final weeks. Borski stepping aside gave Hoeffel a major victory. The initial thought was that Hoeffel wouldn't have much of a problem at all (probably another Hoeffel vs. Greenleaf type race - Hoeffel winning by ten).

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It's far from both.  


And here we are, my friends. 100 pages!

[TeePee4Prez]

Remember, the first election of this dreadedly Gerrymandered district in 2002 had the GOP nominee Melissa Brown up in many polls against incumbent Joe Hoeffel.

She wasn't leading in "many" polls. I'm actually wondering if she led in any. That race only became really competitive in the final weeks. Borski stepping aside gave Hoeffel a major victory. The initial thought was that Hoeffel wouldn't have much of a problem at all (probably another Hoeffel vs. Greenleaf type race - Hoeffel winning by ten).

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It's far from both. 


And here we are, my friends. 100 pages!

And getting closer to 100,000 reads!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why did Hoeffel do so badly in 2002?

[Keystone Phil]

Why did Hoeffel do so badly in 2002?

Well, he was helped out by Rendell's landslide in the area but at the the same, the GOP was on a high after 9/11.

Melissa Brown was a tough challenger. She had a no nonsense attitude (at least in 2002 she did). She also spoke out in favor of reforming Section 8 housing which resonated with NE Philly voters. Whether she used it in a proper way or not, Flyers, the point is that she used the issue and people liked it.

Hoeffel also did poorly because he wasn't much of a stand out member. As Specter proved in the 2004 campaign, Hoeffel had next to zero accomplishments while in the House. He's a passionate partisan and not much else. He wasn't going to be a strong incumbent with that type of attitude even though he tried to present himself as a "moderate" early in his career.

[TeePee4Prez]

Why did Hoeffel do so badly in 2002?

2 reasons:

It was 2002- 9/11 GOP spike.

Do I have to go into the Hoeffel-Borski thing?  Well I guess I have to.  PA 13 was orignally Montgomery county.  PA 3 was originally Northeast Philadelphia and a few adjacent areas.  The GOP legislature thought they could mash the 2 together and slice and dice select Democratic areas to PA 1, 2, 6 and 8 in the hopes of creating a GOP favored district.  It was also to feature a primary between the pro-life Borski and the pro-choice Hoeffel in which Borski would win because the district is more heavily registered Dem in NE Philly.  Since Joe Hoeffel had a base in normally GOP Montgomery County, Bob Borski decided to dropout and clear the field for Joe Hoeffel.  Smart move considering well, NE Philly isn't all that religious.  The Dems pretty much were asleep at the wheel thinking they had this race, BUT moderate Republican from Montco, Melissa Brown exploited quite nicely an issue affecting a lot of Northeast Philly voters- the rising tide of Section 8 housing with tenants from not so desirable areas (primarily PA 1 and 2).  Melissa Brown's campaign has also been rumored to have tied Joe Hoeffel to Jesse Jackson/Al Sharpton to cause a racial overtone.  It seemed Melissa Brown was going to possibly pull it off, but the major trade unions put in a massive effort in last minute GOTV for Joe Hoeffel.   

[Flying Dog]

The reasons that this thread has 100 page's is just sad.

[Keystone Phil]

It was also to feature a primary between the pro-life Borski and the pro-choice Hoeffel in which Borski would win because the district is more heavily registered Dem in NE Philly.

The thing with Borski is that he flip between Pro Life and Pro Choice throughout his twenty years in Congress but his base was Pro Life.

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Uh?

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It was a piece saying Sharpton, not Jackson, endorsed Hoeffel. It was false (as we have discussed before) and backfired.

The reasons that this thread has 100 page's is just sad.

Listen, we don't have a tolerance for people that just want to hate the purpose of our debate. Don't like the political discussion then don't read it. Bye.

[TeePee4Prez]

It was also to feature a primary between the pro-life Borski and the pro-choice Hoeffel in which Borski would win because the district is more heavily registered Dem in NE Philly.

The thing with Borski is that he flip between Pro Life and Pro Choice throughout his twenty years in Congress but his base was Pro Life.

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Uh?

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It was a piece saying Sharpton, not Jackson, endorsed Hoeffel. It was false (as we have discussed before) and backfired.

The reasons that this thread has 100 page's is just sad.

Listen, we don't have a tolerance for people that just want to hate the purpose of our debate. Don't like the political discussion then don't read it. Bye.

Borski's record was pretty pro-life IIRC.  As for his base, I wouldn't be so sure about that.  Most of it was labor.  Maybe Charlie Dougherty's base.  As for picking Joe Hoeffel, yeah that was a smart move for Borski would have got steamrolled in Montco and Hoeffel being pro-choice really wasn't gonna hurt him too much in NE Philly.  Yeah, Borski would have pulled off a few more votes because of that, but not many.  Allyson Schwartz, who actually operated and profited from an abortion clinic, has won handily here twice, but I have to admit labor plays a big part of that.  And there was an choice poll in one of the PA 13 polls.  The Philly portion, which is NE Philly, was actually about 15 points more pro-choice in that particular poll. 

[Keystone Phil]

Borski's record was pretty pro-life IIRC.  As for his base, I wouldn't be so sure about that.  Most of it was labor.  Maybe Charlie Dougherty's base.

Borski was well known for flipping around on abortion. What I meant by the base comment was that most of his base happened to be Pro Life. They didn't follow/admire Borski because of the issue.

 

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What do you mean by "picking" Hoeffel? Are you referring to Borski stepping aside for him?

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That is based on labor and just the favorability to the Dems in federal races in this area. The fact that Schwartz ran an abortion clinic was never really properly discussed as an issue.

 

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Yeah, I remember that and I also questioning the validity of the polling firm but I think we're just going to have a fundamental disagreement on what the people think around here. Either way, it's hard to say that one of us is right. Elections aren't fought on that issue, polling isn't that frequent, etc. to really tell.

[Mr.Phips]

What was the point of creating this district anyway in 2002?  Did the Republicans just pack the district full of Democratic votes in order to keep PA-06, PA-07, and PA-08 from getting too Democratic? 

[Keystone Phil]

What was the point of creating this district anyway in 2002?  Did the Republicans just pack the district full of Democratic votes in order to keep PA-06, PA-07, and PA-08 from getting too Democratic? 

The point was for a pickup. The GOP really thought we could take it and we weren't worried about 6, 7 or 8 at the time. Gerlach's district was made for an easy GOP win. Weldon and Greenwood (before Fitzpatrick) were seen as easy wins for however long they wanted to remain in Congress. Needless to say, the plan backfired.

[Mr.Phips]

What was the point of creating this district anyway in 2002?  Did the Republicans just pack the district full of Democratic votes in order to keep PA-06, PA-07, and PA-08 from getting too Democratic? 

The point was for a pickup. The GOP really thought we could take it and we weren't worried about 6, 7 or 8 at the time. Gerlach's district was made for an easy GOP win. Weldon and Greenwood (before Fitzpatrick) were seen as easy wins for however long they wanted to remain in Congress. Needless to say, the plan backfired.

Gerlach only ended up winning by 2%.  If his district did not include that part of Montgomery county and took more of Chester instead, he would have been much safer. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Borski's record was pretty pro-life IIRC.  As for his base, I wouldn't be so sure about that.  Most of it was labor.  Maybe Charlie Dougherty's base.

Borski was well known for flipping around on abortion. What I meant by the base comment was that most of his base happened to be Pro Life. They didn't follow/admire Borski because of the issue.

 

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What do you mean by "picking" Hoeffel? Are you referring to Borski stepping aside for him?

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That is based on labor and just the favorability to the Dems in federal races in this area. The fact that Schwartz ran an abortion clinic was never really properly discussed as an issue.

 

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Yeah, I remember that and I also questioning the validity of the polling firm but I think we're just going to have a fundamental disagreement on what the people think around here. Either way, it's hard to say that one of us is right. Elections aren't fought on that issue, polling isn't that frequent, etc. to really tell.

It's interesting how many articles related to politics, abortion is a major issue.  And I recall some articles saying the "pro-life Borski vs. the pro-choice Hoeffel" so abortion stance can be a primary adjective when describing a politician in some cases.  I can agree that there are certain parts of the NE that think differently on that issue than others and it is debatable and hard to determine.  I do think pro-lifers are more vocal however.  You can tell me all you want that Allyson Schwartz is a Nancy Pelosi/San Fran liberal all you want, but face it a lot of people are just not that religious here albeit were not as secular as CA 8. 

[TeePee4Prez]

What was the point of creating this district anyway in 2002?  Did the Republicans just pack the district full of Democratic votes in order to keep PA-06, PA-07, and PA-08 from getting too Democratic? 

The point was for a pickup. The GOP really thought we could take it and we weren't worried about 6, 7 or 8 at the time. Gerlach's district was made for an easy GOP win. Weldon and Greenwood (before Fitzpatrick) were seen as easy wins for however long they wanted to remain in Congress. Needless to say, the plan backfired.

Gerlach only ended up winning by 2%.  If his district did not include that part of Montgomery county and took more of Chester instead, he would have been much safer. 

If only PA 6 took in West Chester, you'd be saying Congresswoman Lois Murphy right now.  Gerrymanding can work in strange ways.

[Keystone Phil]

Gerlach only ended up winning by 2%.

Which was people don't understand. He was supposed to be an easy win there. He was popular as a State Senator.

You can tell me all you want that Allyson Schwartz is a Nancy Pelosi/San Fran liberal all you want, but face it a lot of people are just not that religious here albeit were not as secular as CA 8. 

I'm not saying voters are extremely religious here but the NE is dominated by senior citizens. While we have a sizable Jewish community, the majority are old school Catholics. I think the more secular Montco balances out the NE.