PA 13

[Keystone Phil]

Its surprising that as recently as 1992, the though of a Democrat winning PA-13 was absurd.  Now its a safely Democratic district.  It's all part of the Democratic trend in the metro Philadelphia area.  I expect PA-06, PA-07, and PA-08 to look the same way in ten years. 

It's was quite different in 1992 because it was all Montco. Now it is split between Montco and NE Philly.

It was pretty much the same.  Maybe a point or two more Republican when it was all Montgomery.

I don't think that's true. Do you have any numbers that we can compare?

Look at the Presidential numbers in 2000 in the post 1991 PA-13 and the post 2001 PA-13.  In 2000, Gore carried the former 54%-43%, yet he carried the latter 56%-42%.  The district was made at least a point more Democratic and probably more in the 2001 redistricting. 

I'm talking about registration numbers. I know that currently the GOP holds a point advantage in registrations. In 1992, in the old PA 13, the GOP held a much bigger advantage.

[Mr.Phips]

Its surprising that as recently as 1992, the though of a Democrat winning PA-13 was absurd.  Now its a safely Democratic district.  It's all part of the Democratic trend in the metro Philadelphia area.  I expect PA-06, PA-07, and PA-08 to look the same way in ten years. 

It's was quite different in 1992 because it was all Montco. Now it is split between Montco and NE Philly.

It was pretty much the same.  Maybe a point or two more Republican when it was all Montgomery.

I don't think that's true. Do you have any numbers that we can compare?

Look at the Presidential numbers in 2000 in the post 1991 PA-13 and the post 2001 PA-13.  In 2000, Gore carried the former 54%-43%, yet he carried the latter 56%-42%.  The district was made at least a point more Democratic and probably more in the 2001 redistricting. 

I'm talking about registration numbers. I know that currently the GOP holds a point advantage in registrations. In 1992, in the old PA 13, the GOP held a much bigger advantage.

When Joe Hoeffel was running for reelection in 2000, everybody talked about how he would have a tough time because Republicans held a two to one voter registration in the district. 

[Keystone Phil]

When Joe Hoeffel was running for reelection in 2000, everybody talked about how he would have a tough time because Republicans held a two to one voter registration in the district. 

Eh, I don't know. That was about four years before the mass exodus from the GOP in Montco, too, so I'm inclined to believe it was more. Either way, we're basing this simply on what we both believe to be the case so no one is going to win.

On a slightly related note, even after all of the Montco GOP problems and the conversions to the Dems, the GOP still holds a five point margin in voter registration totals.

[TeePee4Prez]

When Joe Hoeffel was running for reelection in 2000, everybody talked about how he would have a tough time because Republicans held a two to one voter registration in the district. 

Eh, I don't know. That was about four years before the mass exodus from the GOP in Montco, too, so I'm inclined to believe it was more. Either way, we're basing this simply on what we both believe to be the case so no one is going to win.

On a slightly related note, even after all of the Montco GOP problems and the conversions to the Dems, the GOP still holds a five point margin in voter registration totals.

Yes, but look at the GOP advantages from the 1980s.  I have no doubt Montgomery County will vote at least 53% for the Dem nominee even if a Giuliani or McCain.  GOP nominates Huckabee, the Dems could easily break 60% in Montco.

[Keystone Phil]

When Joe Hoeffel was running for reelection in 2000, everybody talked about how he would have a tough time because Republicans held a two to one voter registration in the district. 

Eh, I don't know. That was about four years before the mass exodus from the GOP in Montco, too, so I'm inclined to believe it was more. Either way, we're basing this simply on what we both believe to be the case so no one is going to win.

On a slightly related note, even after all of the Montco GOP problems and the conversions to the Dems, the GOP still holds a five point margin in voter registration totals.

Yes, but look at the GOP advantages from the 1980s.  I have no doubt Montgomery County will vote at least 53% for the Dem nominee even if a Giuliani or McCain.  GOP nominates Huckabee, the Dems could easily break 60% in Montco.

Ok that's great but I'm still talking about the registration advantage now. Yes, the Montco GOP has collapsed but in spite of it, they still lead in registrations. I know that isn't what matters but it's a fact.

[Keystone Phil]

I saw the petitions. Marina Kats is definitley running and unless someone from Montco is considering a run, she'll be the nominee. She'll get between 30-35%.

[Bacon King]

Wow. This is one long thread.

[Keystone Phil]

The Candidates

Marina Kats - attorney from Abington with NE Philly ties. She is a Ukranian immigrant who will have some sway with the heavily Russian Jew areas of the NE. She won't win (won't even come close) but it will be interesting to see how she does in certain areas.

Lee Falgoust - Management consultant and Chair of the Upper Moreland GOP. He hasn't made up his mind yet.

Frank Szabo - former limo company owner and now a stay at home dad. He says he is "a firm believer in the traditional Republican platform."


I'm most likely going with Szabo. We're not going to win here so why not give a traditional conservative Republican a shot at running? Enough with this "we need a moderate" and these joke candidates when we know we won't win. I don't know much about Kats but I do remember hearing a bit about her being socially liberal when she was considering a run last time around so I'm not going with her. Falgoust is just another Montco GOP leadership insider so he's out, too.

[Sam Spade]

Wow. This is one long thread.

But a deserving one for such an unimportant CD. 

We can make it to 1500 by the end of the year.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wow. This is one long thread.

But a deserving one for such an unimportant CD. 

True. This seat hasn't been competitive since the thread has been created and won't be for quite some time.

[Keystone Phil]

Wow. This is one long thread.

But a deserving one for such an unimportant CD. 

True. This seat hasn't been competitive since the thread has been created and won't be for quite some time.

But, again for all those who insist on throwing jabs at us that like to discuss this, the politics of this area is very interesting. Give it two years when Schwartz runs for the Senate. The Democratic primary should be very interesting and the GOP will pay some attention to this seat since we'd have an outside chance at grabbing it.

[Sam Spade]

Wow. This is one long thread.

But a deserving one for such an unimportant CD. 

True. This seat hasn't been competitive since the thread has been created and won't be for quite some time.

But, again for all those who insist on throwing jabs at us that like to discuss this, the politics of this area is very interesting. Give it two years when Schwartz runs for the Senate. The Democratic primary should be very interesting and the GOP will pay some attention to this seat since we'd have an outside chance at grabbing it.

Another PA-13 candidate is going to waste a run against Mr. Single-Bullet Theory himself?  Good luck with that.

Yes, it could mean an interesting race, if this were to occur.  Otherwise, we'll just have to wait until PA loses 2 seats heading into 2012 elections.

[Keystone Phil]

Wow. This is one long thread.

But a deserving one for such an unimportant CD. 

True. This seat hasn't been competitive since the thread has been created and won't be for quite some time.

But, again for all those who insist on throwing jabs at us that like to discuss this, the politics of this area is very interesting. Give it two years when Schwartz runs for the Senate. The Democratic primary should be very interesting and the GOP will pay some attention to this seat since we'd have an outside chance at grabbing it.

Another PA-13 candidate is going to waste a run against Mr. Single-Bullet Theory himself?  Good luck with that.

I'm sure they're hoping for him to lose the primary which he hopefully will. 

[Sam Spade]

Wow. This is one long thread.

But a deserving one for such an unimportant CD. 

True. This seat hasn't been competitive since the thread has been created and won't be for quite some time.

But, again for all those who insist on throwing jabs at us that like to discuss this, the politics of this area is very interesting. Give it two years when Schwartz runs for the Senate. The Democratic primary should be very interesting and the GOP will pay some attention to this seat since we'd have an outside chance at grabbing it.

Another PA-13 candidate is going to waste a run against Mr. Single-Bullet Theory himself?  Good luck with that.

I'm sure they're hoping for him to lose the primary which he hopefully will. 

Doubtful, but ok...  Specter always seems to survive.

[Keystone Phil]

Doubtful, but ok...  Specter always seems to survive.

Eh, but as every year passes, Arlen gets older and every election gets closer.

[TeePee4Prez]

Doubtful, but ok...  Specter always seems to survive.

Eh, but as every year passes, Arlen gets older and every election gets closer.

I could see Specter losing.  Remember, he doesn't have Santorum with the power to help his cred with conservatives.  It would be interesting to see if Santorum actually runs against Specter, but I highly doubt it.  Funny I think Santorum would win in the primary if that were the case.

As for PA 13, choosing the right GOP candidate could prove to be a difficult task because Montco Republicans are more libertarian and Northeast Philly Repubs are more populist.  Well... shouldn't say that Melissa Brown won the NE in 2004, but Tauben
                                                                                                 berger wasn't that far behind. We all know why.  I still maintain the district's overall political bend is center-left and usually if the Democrats aren't stupid or have a 1994, they'll win the seat no problem.  Thing is I wonder what would happen if the GOP picks someone who has a strong base such as a Greenleaf, O'Brien, or Taylor.  I know Greenleaf ran for this seat before and made it close.   

[Keystone Phil]

I could see Specter losing.  Remember, he doesn't have Santorum with the power to help his cred with conservatives.  It would be interesting to see if Santorum actually runs against Specter, but I highly doubt it.  Funny I think Santorum would win in the primary if that were the case.

Santorum probably would win. I remember someone suggesting him running but it won't happen.

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Greenleaf is the most likely to do it, of course, but he won't try it again. He's powerful in the State Senate.

[Keystone Phil]

As of now, Marina Kats is the only candidate on the GOP side. Apparently, we have until 5 PM for official word - http://www.dos.state.pa.us/bcel/lib/bcel/elections/petition_filers.pdf

[Keystone Phil]

The Upper Moreland GOP chair has filed. Looks like the guy I was going to support won't be on the ballot. Oh well. Go Marina Kats, I guess.

Oh, and in PA 13 related news, our favorite nut John McDermott (frequent PA 13 candidate and thorn in the side of the local GOP) will be challenging Perzel for his State House seat as a Republican!

[TeePee4Prez]

The Upper Moreland GOP chair has filed. Looks like the guy I was going to support won't be on the ballot. Oh well. Go Marina Kats, I guess.

Oh, and in PA 13 related news, our favorite nut John McDermott (frequent PA 13 candidate and thorn in the side of the local GOP) will be challenging Perzel for his State House seat as a Republican!

Crazy John at it again!  This should be funny.  Perzel too liberal for him?  Geez, I think he forgot to realize Dems still have an advantage there and Perzel would never win as a hardcore conservative.  Oh wait, he forgot many other times before.  I think if he wants to get into politics, he should look for a place with ultra conservative politics and where most of the people are toothless.  He'd win in a landslide.

[Keystone Phil]

Crazy John at it again!  This should be funny.  Perzel too liberal for him?  Geez, I think he forgot to realize Dems still have an advantage there and Perzel would never win as a hardcore conservative.

Well, we don't know for sure that they have the advantage. The GOP had the advantage in 2002. While it has likely changed, the Dems don't have the leg up by much. McDermott's only running because he likes to run and I don't think he's running as a hardcore conservative. He's running to be a pain to Perzel and as the reform candidate.

On a side note, we're at 99 pages. Amazing. Legendary. PA 13.

[MarkWarner08]

Crazy John at it again!  This should be funny.  Perzel too liberal for him?  Geez, I think he forgot to realize Dems still have an advantage there and Perzel would never win as a hardcore conservative.

Well, we don't know for sure that they have the advantage. The GOP had the advantage in 2002. While it has likely changed, the Dems don't have the leg up by much. McDermott's only running because he likes to run and I don't think he's running as a hardcore conservative. He's running to be a pain to Perzel and as the reform candidate.

On a side note, we're at 99 pages. Amazing. Legendary. PA 13.

Will it hit 100 pages?

[Keystone Phil]

Crazy John at it again!  This should be funny.  Perzel too liberal for him?  Geez, I think he forgot to realize Dems still have an advantage there and Perzel would never win as a hardcore conservative.

Well, we don't know for sure that they have the advantage. The GOP had the advantage in 2002. While it has likely changed, the Dems don't have the leg up by much. McDermott's only running because he likes to run and I don't think he's running as a hardcore conservative. He's running to be a pain to Perzel and as the reform candidate.

On a side note, we're at 99 pages. Amazing. Legendary. PA 13.

Will it hit 100 pages?

Of course it will. We're in February of a federal election year. It will probably hit 100 pages before the summer.

[TeePee4Prez]

Crazy John at it again!  This should be funny.  Perzel too liberal for him?  Geez, I think he forgot to realize Dems still have an advantage there and Perzel would never win as a hardcore conservative.

Well, we don't know for sure that they have the advantage. The GOP had the advantage in 2002. While it has likely changed, the Dems don't have the leg up by much. McDermott's only running because he likes to run and I don't think he's running as a hardcore conservative. He's running to be a pain to Perzel and as the reform candidate.

On a side note, we're at 99 pages. Amazing. Legendary. PA 13.

Will it hit 100 pages?

Of course it will. We're in February of a federal election year. It will probably hit 100 pages before the summer.

Sure to break 100, but it won't be 2004 when it was actually competitive.

[Keystone Phil]

Getting the discussion going a bit...

I'm interested in seeing how this primary plays out. Oddly enough, I'll be backing the candidate that the Philly GOP City Committee and Specter happen to be backing (because I don't want some Montco party insider getting the meaningless nomination). Kats should win the NE in the primary and Falgoust should win Montco. Now Montco would typically beat the NE Philly turnout (especially in a GOP primary) but I think Kats may be able to draw in a good deal of Montco Republican women. I wonder if it will be a real "battle" though. It seems really silly to me. Who wants to lose to Schwartz more?