Not Another "California Swung Right in 2020?!?" thread.
Where's all the threads about why Nebraska & Kansas swung 6 points leftwards or similarly-partisan Idaho swinging 1.1% to the Dems?
Anyway, I've said plenty on this topic so here's a compilation:
Amongst the counties that swung to Trump:
Counties where Biden improved on Obama/Clinton percentage & Trump improved on his 2016 percentage (But not McCain/Romney): Alameda, Colusa, Merced, San Francisco, San Joaquin, Sutter, Yolo
County where Biden did better than Obama (but not Clinton) & Trump improved on his 2016 percentage (But not McCain/Romney): Los Angeles, Santa Clara
County where Biden did better than Clinton (but not Obama) & Trump improved on his 2016 percentage (But not McCain/Romney): Stanislaus
Counties where Biden did worse than Obama/Clinton & Trump improved on McCain/Romney/2016 percentage: Calaveras, Imperial, Lassen
Biden did better than Obama & Clinton. It's just that Trump improved more from the abysmal bar he set himself in 2016.
When you break it down on the county-level, I'd be much more concerned for the GOP's position than the Dems right now. Clinton "did better" than Biden by a whopping 0.8% margin despite swings in LA & SF Bay. The Dem vote is becoming more spread out and you'd be a fool for thinking improvement in Imperial County + dead cat bounces in LA & SF are a worthy trade-off for growing Dem margins in formerly-GOP San Diego, Orange, Ventura, San Luis Obispo, Fresno, San Bernardino & Riverside Counties.
And hell, all this talk about SF/LA/Imperial ignores the fact that Trump won Kern County & Bakersfield by the closest margin since 1976. That is as big of a warning sign for the CA GOP's current predicament as I've ever seen. Where's all the threads about that?
For a state plenty of folks here considered "maxed out for Dems", there certainly seems to be a lot of (slightly) overblown analysis & questions regarding California 2020.
I make of it the same that I do of the Trump swing in Los Angeles County. A nothing-burger when you look at Biden's record performance.
Biden had the highest percentage of any candidate in SF with the second-biggest margin in SF history against a candidate who had the second-worst percentage for a runner-up. The only runner-up who did worse than Trump 2020 was Trump 2016.
The swings in California are some of the most overblown takeaways from 2020.
I love how much hay has been made about California swinging a gargantuan 0.8% to the right (Not just in this thread)
Biden was the 3rd presidential candidate to ever get >70% in LA County. But we're supposed to be astounded that Trump's performance was only the second worst for a runner-up in 100 years?
One thing I'm surprised more people are talking about is how despite many suburbs swinging hard left, many city centers like Philadelphia, New York, Chicago, Dallas, LA, ect, ect swung right. For the most part, these cities are so one sided that only winning a district 80-20 as opposed to 90-10 isn't going to make a difference, but if the GOP can continue to make gains in these city centers as Trump did, it might cancel out some of the suburban trend, and could potentially bring states like NY and IL into play down the road. What do you think?
I think you just answered your own question.
Not to mention, Trump's percents in LA & San Francisco were the 2nd worst for a Republican in 104 years, next to his 2016 performance.
Or that Trump percents in San Diego, Orange & Riverside Counties were the 4th worst for a Republican since 1912.
But yeah, California Democrats oughta be scared sh*tless
Trump improved his vote% in Los Angeles County.
Trump improved his vote% in Hispanic-heavy communities.
Compton is a Hispanic-heavy community in Los Angeles County.
Trump improved his vote% in Compton,California.
You'll wind up with similar answers if you asked about Imperial County, Fontana, Coachella, Santa Ana or any other majority-minority SoCal community. Just because it's "infamous" doesn't make Compton an exception.
Frankly, I think 95% of the questions or analysis this election regarding California & swings/trends/improvements can be summed up as either "COVID-related angst among working-class minorities" or "Just noise"
I honestly don't think there's anything to extrapolate from California swinging <1% to the right other than "California swinging <1% to the right".
Even with the "significant" swing in LA, Biden is still only the second Democrat to ever get 70% there.
Can't decipher anything from it yet, stabilization or otherwise. Certainly not from one election
Regarding California and Hawaii, Hillary probably maxed out support (percentage wise)
Not really. To reiterate what I said earlier...
- This is the 3rd election that a candidate got 70% in LA County
- The 4th election a Dem ever won OC (And he got a bigger percentage than Hillary)
- The 2nd biggest win for a Dem in San Diego County ever and the biggest win for a candidate since 1988
- The 3rd biggest win for a Dem in the Inland Empire (Behind 1964 & 1936)
- The narrowest margin in Kern County since 1976
And that's just in Southern California.
Biden's lead in California is now over 5 million. Insane. But so many wasted votes. That really explains the entire problem Dems have in the electoral college and senate.
If California gerrymandered they could give themselves a real advantage in the house. But of course Dems love sticking to their principles while the GOP destroys the country.
A. "Really bad for Democrats to see California vote as strongly for them this year. Portends to ominous trends in the Electoral & popular vote gap."
B. "Really bad for Democrats to see California swing very slightly to the right this year. Portends to ominous trends in their future appeal to Asians/Hispanics"
Choose your own California political adventure. Either way, California can do no right
