wait, is CA going to SWING R?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hawaii also swung to Trump?

Typical pro-incumbent swing, plus perhaps improvement with Asians.

Hawaii does seem to have a history to swinging to incumbents, for some reason. Bush gained a lot here in 2004.

[Alcibiades]

Hawaii also swung to Trump?

Typical pro-incumbent swing, plus perhaps improvement with Asians.

Hawaii does seem to have a history to swinging to incumbents, for some reason. Bush gained a lot here in 2004.

I think it’s to do with its militarily perilous location.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Honestly, I'm just glad our California vote sink problem didn't get worse. It gets me really mad though that the biggest R shift in the country was FL (NY should end up shifting D once all the mail ballots are counted)

[Motorcity]

Illinois and New York are not done counting. New York has over a million uncounted ballots that will help Biden a lot.

Regarding California and Hawaii, Hillary probably maxed out support (percentage wise)

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Regarding California and Hawaii, Hillary probably maxed out support (percentage wise)

Not really. To reiterate what I said earlier...

- This is the 3rd election that a candidate got 70% in LA County
- The 4th election a Dem ever won OC (And he got a bigger percentage than Hillary)
- The 2nd biggest win for a Dem in San Diego County ever and the biggest win for a candidate since 1988
- The 3rd biggest win for a Dem in the Inland Empire (Behind 1964 & 1936)
- The narrowest margin in Kern County since 1976

And that's just in Southern California.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Illinois and New York are not done counting. New York has over a million uncounted ballots that will help Biden a lot.

Regarding California and Hawaii, Hillary probably maxed out support (percentage wise)

Biden's currently at 63.8% of the vote, which is over 2% more than Hillary. The D candidate's percentage of the popular vote has increased every election since 1992. It's just that 45's also doing a little under 3% better than he did last time, so California will swing R by around 0.3% or 0.4% when all the votes are counted.

But yeah, the sharp R swings in Santa Clara and Los Angeles are a bit ominous for the Ds, as are the R rebounds in SoCal House races.

[Roll Roons]

Illinois and New York are not done counting. New York has over a million uncounted ballots that will help Biden a lot.

Regarding California and Hawaii, Hillary probably maxed out support (percentage wise)

Biden's currently at 63.8% of the vote, which is over 2% more than Hillary. The D candidate's percentage of the popular vote has increased every election since 1992. It's just that 45's also doing a little under 3% better than he did last time, so California will swing R by around 0.3% or 0.4% when all the votes are counted.

But yeah, the sharp R swings in Santa Clara and Los Angeles are a bit ominous for the Ds, as are the R rebounds in SoCal House races.

Yeah, that was a bit weird, but maybe it had something to do with the Asian swing towards Trump? I have cousins who live there, and I swear 90% of their town is Indian or Chinese. Trump isn't exactly beloved among tech types.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Illinois and New York are not done counting. New York has over a million uncounted ballots that will help Biden a lot.

Regarding California and Hawaii, Hillary probably maxed out support (percentage wise)

Biden's currently at 63.8% of the vote, which is over 2% more than Hillary. The D candidate's percentage of the popular vote has increased every election since 1992. It's just that 45's also doing a little under 3% better than he did last time, so California will swing R by around 0.3% or 0.4% when all the votes are counted.

But yeah, the sharp R swings in Santa Clara and Los Angeles are a bit ominous for the Ds, as are the R rebounds in SoCal House races.

Yeah, that was a bit weird, but maybe it had something to do with the Asian swing towards Trump? I have cousins who live there, and I swear 90% of their town is Indian or Chinese. Trump isn't exactly beloved among tech types.

I don't have precinct data on hand or detailed knowledge of which ethnic groups live in which precincts. As far as I know, the ethnic Chinese and South Asians of that county are more concentrated in Cupertino. Santa Clara itself has a reputation for being disproportionately Korean.

I can totally see slightly older, otherwise apolitical versions of Silicon Valley's Jian-Yang and Dinesh voting for 45 en masse to spite all the Bachmanns and Monicas. I imagine fake news proliferation among foreign-born circles helped boost 45's numbers there, along with genuine concerns with affirmative action and taxes.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Trump did much better with foreign-born Asians than US-born Asians, especially those with low English proficiency levels. That accounts for the slight swing towards Trump among SOME Asian ethnic groups (mostly Vietnamese-Americans).

Of course, Biden still got the overwhelming majority of the Asian vote in CA (74%) and nationwide (68%).

[Calthrina950]

Trump did much better with foreign-born Asians than US-born Asians, especially those with low English proficiency levels. That accounts for the slight swing towards Trump among SOME Asian ethnic groups (mostly Vietnamese-Americans).

Of course, Biden still got the overwhelming majority of the Asian vote in CA (74%) and nationwide (68%).

How ironic is this? That Donald Trump, who talked about "s***hole countries", who made demands for America to "Build the Wall", who implemented an immigration ban on Muslim countries, who introduced a greatly expanded "family separation" policy, who made negative comments about a Hispanic judge and a Muslim Gold Star family, who talked about "his African-American"...did better with nonwhite voters than in 2016 and posted the best performance for a Republican among them in years? And the "slight" swing towards Trump translated into a much more considerable one downballot, with the victories of Young Kim and Michelle Steel.

[Bootes Void]

Trump did much better with foreign-born Asians than US-born Asians, especially those with low English proficiency levels. That accounts for the slight swing towards Trump among SOME Asian ethnic groups (mostly Vietnamese-Americans).

Of course, Biden still got the overwhelming majority of the Asian vote in CA (74%) and nationwide (68%).

How ironic is this? That Donald Trump, who talked about "s***hole countries", who made demands for America to "Build the Wall", who implemented an immigration ban on Muslim countries, who introduced a greatly expanded "family separation" policy, who made negative comments about a Hispanic judge and a Muslim Gold Star family, who talked about "his African-American"...did better with nonwhite voters than in 2016 and posted the best performance for a Republican among them in years? And the "slight" swing towards Trump translated into a much more considerable one downballot, with the victories of Young Kim and Michelle Steel.

Among English speakers, there might be people to counter this, while they can fully understand the context of what he's saying. In foreign language, it's maybe done through a translator who may tone down some of the crazy or the visceral parts so they don't see it. That's my interpretation.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Illinois and New York are not done counting. New York has over a million uncounted ballots that will help Biden a lot.

Regarding California and Hawaii, Hillary probably maxed out support (percentage wise)

Biden's currently at 63.8% of the vote, which is over 2% more than Hillary. The D candidate's percentage of the popular vote has increased every election since 1992. It's just that 45's also doing a little under 3% better than he did last time, so California will swing R by around 0.3% or 0.4% when all the votes are counted.

But yeah, the sharp R swings in Santa Clara and Los Angeles are a bit ominous for the Ds, as are the R rebounds in SoCal House races.

It's ominous if California swings R (Minority appeal and/or maxed votes) and it's ominous if California swings D (National PV/EV gap).

California does wrong no matter what

[Calthrina950]

Illinois and New York are not done counting. New York has over a million uncounted ballots that will help Biden a lot.

Regarding California and Hawaii, Hillary probably maxed out support (percentage wise)

Biden's currently at 63.8% of the vote, which is over 2% more than Hillary. The D candidate's percentage of the popular vote has increased every election since 1992. It's just that 45's also doing a little under 3% better than he did last time, so California will swing R by around 0.3% or 0.4% when all the votes are counted.

But yeah, the sharp R swings in Santa Clara and Los Angeles are a bit ominous for the Ds, as are the R rebounds in SoCal House races.

It's ominous if California swings R (For minority appeal and/or maxed vote) and it's ominous if California swings D (For the PV/EV vote gap).

California does wrong no matter what

It certainly seems that way. Just like how Republicans are celebrating the victories of Kim and Steel, declaring that some Californians are "waking up" to the dangers of socialism and far-leftism, but will then denigrate the state and its residents at the next juncture, and call for its votes to be excluded from the national popular vote count. There's no sense of rationality to it. Nevertheless, I do think that it's obvious the minority swing to Trump limited the extent to which Biden could gain in California over Clinton. He's obviously still garnering a higher percentage of the vote then her, thanks to the consolidation of the third-party vote and his improvements among white voters, but Trump did better in Imperial County this year, gained several percentage points in Los Angeles County, and managed to increase his support in Orange County also.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Trump did much better with foreign-born Asians than US-born Asians, especially those with low English proficiency levels. That accounts for the slight swing towards Trump among SOME Asian ethnic groups (mostly Vietnamese-Americans).

Of course, Biden still got the overwhelming majority of the Asian vote in CA (74%) and nationwide (68%).

How ironic is this? That Donald Trump, who talked about "s***hole countries", who made demands for America to "Build the Wall", who implemented an immigration ban on Muslim countries, who introduced a greatly expanded "family separation" policy, who made negative comments about a Hispanic judge and a Muslim Gold Star family, who talked about "his African-American"...did better with nonwhite voters than in 2016 and posted the best performance for a Republican among them in years? And the "slight" swing towards Trump translated into a much more considerable one downballot, with the victories of Young Kim and Michelle Steel.

Any other Republican incumbent would've made even bigger gains among nonwhites relative to the Obama era. Someone like Rubio would have drastically higher baseline support among CA Latinos and Asians, although they might not have the same kind of incumbent charisma 45 has.

I doubt there will be any credible exit polls for this, but I'm curious how Latino and Asian voters who sat out 2016 broke this year. I strongly suspect first-time Latino and Asian voters broke heavily for Biden, but I can see a certain number of former Obama voters who didn't vote in 2016 turning out for 45.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Trump did much better with foreign-born Asians than US-born Asians, especially those with low English proficiency levels. That accounts for the slight swing towards Trump among SOME Asian ethnic groups (mostly Vietnamese-Americans).

Of course, Biden still got the overwhelming majority of the Asian vote in CA (74%) and nationwide (68%).

How ironic is this? That Donald Trump, who talked about "s***hole countries", who made demands for America to "Build the Wall", who implemented an immigration ban on Muslim countries, who introduced a greatly expanded "family separation" policy, who made negative comments about a Hispanic judge and a Muslim Gold Star family, who talked about "his African-American"...did better with nonwhite voters than in 2016 and posted the best performance for a Republican among them in years? And the "slight" swing towards Trump translated into a much more considerable one downballot, with the victories of Young Kim and Michelle Steel.

Any other Republican incumbent would've made even bigger gains among nonwhites relative to the Obama era. Someone like Rubio would have drastically higher baseline support among CA Latinos and Asians, although they might not have the same kind of incumbent charisma 45 has.

Really not seeing this as a given or I'd have expected trends to be stronger downballot as opposed to at the top of the ticket. Certain candidates like Steel did manage this (especially Asian ones, it seems?), but I'd have expected a better showing for Gimenez, Cornyn, etc. and to a lesser extent John James. Instead, Republican candidates tended to do better amongst white suburbanites. This election and its statistically improbable turnout spike should stick a fork in the assumptions that most Republican candidates were better than Trump on a whole host of messages (except message discipline, of course).

Among other issues, almost everyone in the 2016 Republican field would have made a more concerted effort to cut the welfare state as president and that would probably have led to a nastier kicking amongst voters of all races.

[mileslunn]

Wondering when California will give municipality breakdown and do they have any of those for any county yet?

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Trump did much better with foreign-born Asians than US-born Asians, especially those with low English proficiency levels. That accounts for the slight swing towards Trump among SOME Asian ethnic groups (mostly Vietnamese-Americans).

Of course, Biden still got the overwhelming majority of the Asian vote in CA (74%) and nationwide (68%).

How ironic is this? That Donald Trump, who talked about "s***hole countries", who made demands for America to "Build the Wall", who implemented an immigration ban on Muslim countries, who introduced a greatly expanded "family separation" policy, who made negative comments about a Hispanic judge and a Muslim Gold Star family, who talked about "his African-American"...did better with nonwhite voters than in 2016 and posted the best performance for a Republican among them in years? And the "slight" swing towards Trump translated into a much more considerable one downballot, with the victories of Young Kim and Michelle Steel.

Any other Republican incumbent would've made even bigger gains among nonwhites relative to the Obama era. Someone like Rubio would have drastically higher baseline support among CA Latinos and Asians, although they might not have the same kind of incumbent charisma 45 has.

Really not seeing this as a given or I'd have expected trends to be stronger downballot as opposed to at the top of the ticket. Certain candidates like Steel did manage this (especially Asian ones, it seems?), but I'd have expected a better showing for Gimenez, Cornyn, etc. and to a lesser extent John James. Instead, Republican candidates tended to do better amongst white suburbanites. This election and its statistically improbable turnout spike should stick a fork in the assumptions that most Republican candidates were better than Trump on a whole host of messages (except message discipline, of course).

Among other issues, almost everyone in the 2016 Republican field would have made a more concerted effort to cut the welfare state as president and that would probably have led to a nastier kicking amongst voters of all races.

I have no idea how much the parts of LA county in CA-39 and CA-48 swung toward 45, if at all. But I'm pretty sure a hypothetical President Rubio would be significantly more popular among Latinos and Asians than Trump is.

Right-leaning Latinos and Asians generally aren't dissuaded by GOP attacks on the welfare state (it's probably part of why a lot of them lean R to begin with). But I don't think maintaining or expanding the welfare state would necessarily hurt a post-Trump GOP among said right-leaning Latino and Asian voters either.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Wondering when California will give municipality breakdown and do they have any of those for any county yet?

You're gonna have to wait a month when Sacramento certifies the results for the complete statement of votes.

Orange County currently has breakdowns though

[H. Ross Peron]

Illinois and New York are not done counting. New York has over a million uncounted ballots that will help Biden a lot.

Regarding California and Hawaii, Hillary probably maxed out support (percentage wise)

Biden's currently at 63.8% of the vote, which is over 2% more than Hillary. The D candidate's percentage of the popular vote has increased every election since 1992. It's just that 45's also doing a little under 3% better than he did last time, so California will swing R by around 0.3% or 0.4% when all the votes are counted.

But yeah, the sharp R swings in Santa Clara and Los Angeles are a bit ominous for the Ds, as are the R rebounds in SoCal House races.

Yeah, that was a bit weird, but maybe it had something to do with the Asian swing towards Trump? I have cousins who live there, and I swear 90% of their town is Indian or Chinese. Trump isn't exactly beloved among tech types.

I don't have precinct data on hand or detailed knowledge of which ethnic groups live in which precincts. As far as I know, the ethnic Chinese and South Asians of that county are more concentrated in Cupertino. Santa Clara itself has a reputation for being disproportionately Korean.

I can totally see slightly older, otherwise apolitical versions of Silicon Valley's Jian-Yang and Dinesh voting for 45 en masse to spite all the Bachmanns and Monicas. I imagine fake news proliferation among foreign-born circles helped boost 45's numbers there, along with genuine concerns with affirmative action and taxes.

Is this referring to something specific?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Regarding California and Hawaii, Hillary probably maxed out support (percentage wise)

Not really. To reiterate what I said earlier...

- This is the 3rd election that a candidate got 70% in LA County
- The 4th election a Dem ever won OC (And he got a bigger percentage than Hillary)
- The 2nd biggest win for a Dem in San Diego County ever and the biggest win for a candidate since 1988
- The 3rd biggest win for a Dem in the Inland Empire (Behind 1964 & 1936)
- The narrowest margin in Kern County since 1976

And that's just in Southern California.

Among the next set of counties to the north is Inyo, which is set to go Dem for the first time since 1964.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Illinois and New York are not done counting. New York has over a million uncounted ballots that will help Biden a lot.

Regarding California and Hawaii, Hillary probably maxed out support (percentage wise)

Biden's currently at 63.8% of the vote, which is over 2% more than Hillary. The D candidate's percentage of the popular vote has increased every election since 1992. It's just that 45's also doing a little under 3% better than he did last time, so California will swing R by around 0.3% or 0.4% when all the votes are counted.

But yeah, the sharp R swings in Santa Clara and Los Angeles are a bit ominous for the Ds, as are the R rebounds in SoCal House races.

Yeah, that was a bit weird, but maybe it had something to do with the Asian swing towards Trump? I have cousins who live there, and I swear 90% of their town is Indian or Chinese. Trump isn't exactly beloved among tech types.

I don't have precinct data on hand or detailed knowledge of which ethnic groups live in which precincts. As far as I know, the ethnic Chinese and South Asians of that county are more concentrated in Cupertino. Santa Clara itself has a reputation for being disproportionately Korean.

I can totally see slightly older, otherwise apolitical versions of Silicon Valley's Jian-Yang and Dinesh voting for 45 en masse to spite all the Bachmanns and Monicas. I imagine fake news proliferation among foreign-born circles helped boost 45's numbers there, along with genuine concerns with affirmative action and taxes.

Is this referring to something specific?

Lol, it's a reference to various characters from the TV show Silicon Valley. Erlich Bachmann is a software developer and startup founder who rents out a house to several other characters, including Chinese national Jian-Yang and naturalized Pakistani immigrant Dinesh.

I used them as stand-ins for foreign-born Chinese and South Asian tech workers in the Bay Area, while Bachmann was intended as a personification of individualistic, libertine West Coast social norms that are commonly associated with white tech bros. I just added Monica as an afterthought because she's a white woman who doesn't work in a technical role.

[H. Ross Peron]

Illinois and New York are not done counting. New York has over a million uncounted ballots that will help Biden a lot.

Regarding California and Hawaii, Hillary probably maxed out support (percentage wise)

Biden's currently at 63.8% of the vote, which is over 2% more than Hillary. The D candidate's percentage of the popular vote has increased every election since 1992. It's just that 45's also doing a little under 3% better than he did last time, so California will swing R by around 0.3% or 0.4% when all the votes are counted.

But yeah, the sharp R swings in Santa Clara and Los Angeles are a bit ominous for the Ds, as are the R rebounds in SoCal House races.

Yeah, that was a bit weird, but maybe it had something to do with the Asian swing towards Trump? I have cousins who live there, and I swear 90% of their town is Indian or Chinese. Trump isn't exactly beloved among tech types.

I don't have precinct data on hand or detailed knowledge of which ethnic groups live in which precincts. As far as I know, the ethnic Chinese and South Asians of that county are more concentrated in Cupertino. Santa Clara itself has a reputation for being disproportionately Korean.

I can totally see slightly older, otherwise apolitical versions of Silicon Valley's Jian-Yang and Dinesh voting for 45 en masse to spite all the Bachmanns and Monicas. I imagine fake news proliferation among foreign-born circles helped boost 45's numbers there, along with genuine concerns with affirmative action and taxes.

Is this referring to something specific?

Lol, it's a reference to various characters from the TV show Silicon Valley. Erlich Bachmann is a software developer and startup founder who rents out a house to several other characters, including Chinese national Jian-Yang and naturalized Pakistani immigrant Dinesh.

I used them as stand-ins for foreign-born Chinese and South Asian tech workers in the Bay Area, while Bachmann was intended as a personification of individualistic, libertine West Coast social norms that are commonly associated with white tech bros. I just added Monica as an afterthought because she's a white woman who doesn't work in a technical role.

Never watched the show so I thought it was a reference to Dinesh D'Souza and Michele Bachmann if anything.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Regarding California and Hawaii, Hillary probably maxed out support (percentage wise)

Not really. To reiterate what I said earlier...

- This is the 3rd election that a candidate got 70% in LA County
- The 4th election a Dem ever won OC (And he got a bigger percentage than Hillary)
- The 2nd biggest win for a Dem in San Diego County ever and the biggest win for a candidate since 1988
- The 3rd biggest win for a Dem in the Inland Empire (Behind 1964 & 1936)
- The narrowest margin in Kern County since 1976

And that's just in Southern California.

Among the next set of counties to the north is Inyo, which is set to go Dem for the first time since 1964.

I'm aware. I could've also mentioned Lake County snapping back to the left after a narrower-than-usual margin in 2016

[StateBoiler]

Hawaii also swung to Trump?

Typical pro-incumbent swing, plus perhaps improvement with Asians.

Something Wasserman also tweeted was that Hawaii is going to have the highest increase in turnout nationwide.

2016: Clinton 267k, Trump 129k, Other 33k
2020: Biden 366k, Trump 197k, Other 11k

[Sbane]

Illinois and New York are not done counting. New York has over a million uncounted ballots that will help Biden a lot.

Regarding California and Hawaii, Hillary probably maxed out support (percentage wise)

Biden's currently at 63.8% of the vote, which is over 2% more than Hillary. The D candidate's percentage of the popular vote has increased every election since 1992. It's just that 45's also doing a little under 3% better than he did last time, so California will swing R by around 0.3% or 0.4% when all the votes are counted.

But yeah, the sharp R swings in Santa Clara and Los Angeles are a bit ominous for the Ds, as are the R rebounds in SoCal House races.

Yeah, that was a bit weird, but maybe it had something to do with the Asian swing towards Trump? I have cousins who live there, and I swear 90% of their town is Indian or Chinese. Trump isn't exactly beloved among tech types.

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CA/Santa_Clara/106043/web.264614/#/summary

The precinct results don't really show us the swings here but I would assume that is what happened. If I had to guess the east side of the county swung to Trump while the west side swung to Biden. Places like Milpitas (lots of Filipinos in addition to Indians and Chinese) would be ground zero for a swing towards Trump. Wealthier but also predominantly Asian places like Cupertino or Sunnyvale will show less of a swing to Trump or maybe they swung to Biden. We shall wait to see if I am right.