Will Biden flip Inyo County, CA?

[DrScholl]

Why did this county flip even as california swung and trended R this cycle?

There's a Native American Reservation there and Native Americans really seem to have turned out this year. Plus some of the people who move to these sort of locations to be close to skiing probably flipped much like they did in Alpine and Mono years ago.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Why did this county flip even as california swung and trended R this cycle?

CA didn't swing R.

[E-Dawg]

Why did this county flip even as california swung and trended R this cycle?

CA didn't swing R.

Yes it did. Hillary won the state by a margin of 30.1%, and with 99% of precincts reporting Biden won the state by 29.2%. I highly doubt the 1% of precincts remaining would be strong enough for Biden to change this, as California's votes has become more Republican as more votes have been reported, much like in Arizona.

[mileslunn]

Why did this county flip even as california swung and trended R this cycle?

There's a Native American Reservation there and Native Americans really seem to have turned out this year. Plus some of the people who move to these sort of locations to be close to skiing probably flipped much like they did in Alpine and Mono years ago.

Also with Death Valley and Yosemite National Park being there, tourism is a major industry and it seems rural counties where tourism is a major industry swung towards Democrats.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Why did this county flip even as california swung and trended R this cycle?

CA didn't swing R.

Yes it did. Hillary won the state by a margin of 30.1%, and with 99% of precincts reporting Biden won the state by 29.2%. I highly doubt the 1% of precincts remaining would be strong enough for Biden to change this, as California's votes has become more Republican as more votes have been reported, much like in Arizona.

Doesn't count. Not a swing, in my opinion.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Why did this county flip even as california swung and trended R this cycle?

CA didn't swing R.

Yes it did. Hillary won the state by a margin of 30.1%, and with 99% of precincts reporting Biden won the state by 29.2%. I highly doubt the 1% of precincts remaining would be strong enough for Biden to change this, as California's votes has become more Republican as more votes have been reported, much like in Arizona.

Doesn't count. Not a swing, in my opinion.

Your opinion aside, every state swings in every election unless the vote totals are identical. The question is by how much.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why did this county flip even as california swung and trended R this cycle?

CA didn't swing R.

Yes it did. Hillary won the state by a margin of 30.1%, and with 99% of precincts reporting Biden won the state by 29.2%. I highly doubt the 1% of precincts remaining would be strong enough for Biden to change this, as California's votes has become more Republican as more votes have been reported, much like in Arizona.

Doesn't count. Not a swing, in my opinion.

In my opinion, the sky is green.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Why did this county flip even as california swung and trended R this cycle?

CA didn't swing R.

Yes it did. Hillary won the state by a margin of 30.1%, and with 99% of precincts reporting Biden won the state by 29.2%. I highly doubt the 1% of precincts remaining would be strong enough for Biden to change this, as California's votes has become more Republican as more votes have been reported, much like in Arizona.

Doesn't count. Not a swing, in my opinion.

Your opinion aside, every state swings in every election unless the vote totals are identical. The question is by how much.

Why did this county flip even as california swung and trended R this cycle?

CA didn't swing R.

Yes it did. Hillary won the state by a margin of 30.1%, and with 99% of precincts reporting Biden won the state by 29.2%. I highly doubt the 1% of precincts remaining would be strong enough for Biden to change this, as California's votes has become more Republican as more votes have been reported, much like in Arizona.

Doesn't count. Not a swing, in my opinion.

In my opinion, the sky is green.

A less than 1% swing (in any direction) is nothing to me. Just noise.

[DrScholl]

At best it's an insignificant swing.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A less than 1% swing (in any direction) is nothing to me. Just noise.

Words have meanings. A 0.00000000000000001 point swing to the GOP is still a swing to the GOP. You are wrong by definition.

If you had said "CA didn't swing R by a significant amount", I would have agreed with you, but right now you're just not making sense.

[E-Dawg]

Why did this county flip even as california swung and trended R this cycle?

CA didn't swing R.

Yes it did. Hillary won the state by a margin of 30.1%, and with 99% of precincts reporting Biden won the state by 29.2%. I highly doubt the 1% of precincts remaining would be strong enough for Biden to change this, as California's votes has become more Republican as more votes have been reported, much like in Arizona.

Doesn't count. Not a swing, in my opinion.

Yes, it is objectively a swing. Yes, it is a very small swing and it is reasonable to find it to be noise that doesn't carry much meaning. However, that doesn't change the fact that it is objectively a slight GOP swing and claiming that it didn't happen is inaccurate. Be more careful in your wording.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

A less than 1% swing (in any direction) is nothing to me. Just noise.

Words have meanings. A 0.00000000000000001 point swing to the GOP is still a swing to the GOP. You are wrong by definition.

If you had said "CA didn't swing R by a significant amount", I would have agreed with you, but right now you're just not making sense.

Why did this county flip even as california swung and trended R this cycle?

CA didn't swing R.

Yes it did. Hillary won the state by a margin of 30.1%, and with 99% of precincts reporting Biden won the state by 29.2%. I highly doubt the 1% of precincts remaining would be strong enough for Biden to change this, as California's votes has become more Republican as more votes have been reported, much like in Arizona.

Doesn't count. Not a swing, in my opinion.

Yes, it is objectively a swing. Yes, it is a very small swing and it is reasonable to find it to be noise that doesn't carry much meaning. However, that doesn't change the fact that it is objectively a slight GOP swing and claiming that it didn't happen is inaccurate. Be more careful in your wording.

LOL, it's not a big deal. Like DrScholl said, it's an "insignificant swing".

Are both of you happy now? Geez.

[E-Dawg]

A less than 1% swing (in any direction) is nothing to me. Just noise.

Words have meanings. A 0.00000000000000001 point swing to the GOP is still a swing to the GOP. You are wrong by definition.

If you had said "CA didn't swing R by a significant amount", I would have agreed with you, but right now you're just not making sense.

Why did this county flip even as california swung and trended R this cycle?

CA didn't swing R.

Yes it did. Hillary won the state by a margin of 30.1%, and with 99% of precincts reporting Biden won the state by 29.2%. I highly doubt the 1% of precincts remaining would be strong enough for Biden to change this, as California's votes has become more Republican as more votes have been reported, much like in Arizona.

Doesn't count. Not a swing, in my opinion.

Yes, it is objectively a swing. Yes, it is a very small swing and it is reasonable to find it to be noise that doesn't carry much meaning. However, that doesn't change the fact that it is objectively a slight GOP swing and claiming that it didn't happen is inaccurate. Be more careful in your wording.

LOL, it's not a big deal. Like DrScholl said, it's an "insignificant swing".

Are both of you happy now? Geez.

Yes, its an important clarification, since you said twice that "it wasn't a swing." If you don't want this to happen again then don't double down on false statements.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

A less than 1% swing (in any direction) is nothing to me. Just noise.

Words have meanings. A 0.00000000000000001 point swing to the GOP is still a swing to the GOP. You are wrong by definition.

If you had said "CA didn't swing R by a significant amount", I would have agreed with you, but right now you're just not making sense.

Why did this county flip even as california swung and trended R this cycle?

CA didn't swing R.

Yes it did. Hillary won the state by a margin of 30.1%, and with 99% of precincts reporting Biden won the state by 29.2%. I highly doubt the 1% of precincts remaining would be strong enough for Biden to change this, as California's votes has become more Republican as more votes have been reported, much like in Arizona.

Doesn't count. Not a swing, in my opinion.

Yes, it is objectively a swing. Yes, it is a very small swing and it is reasonable to find it to be noise that doesn't carry much meaning. However, that doesn't change the fact that it is objectively a slight GOP swing and claiming that it didn't happen is inaccurate. Be more careful in your wording.

LOL, it's not a big deal. Like DrScholl said, it's an "insignificant swing".

Are both of you happy now? Geez.

Yes, its an important clarification, since you said twice that "it wasn't a swing." If you don't want this to happen again then don't double down on false statements.

OK, calm down lol.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Are both of you happy now? Geez.

I am. Accuracy in language is important. I think this forum in general would do well to keep that in mind.

[Calthrina950]

Biden and Trump both gained about 2% in California compared to how Clinton and Trump himself had done in 2016, with a decline in the third-party vote. Obviously, they also both gained in terms of raw number of votes-especially Biden, given the massive increase in turnout this year. 29% is still a very wide margin, but I think that the results here do reflect Trump's improvement among minority voters (i.e. Biden doing worse than Clinton in heavily Hispanic Imperial County); Biden's overall gain in the state over Clinton can be attributed to his gains among white voters, especially college-educated whites and white men, although he certainly received a higher raw number of nonwhite votes than Clinton did, again due to the increase in turnout.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Biden and Trump both gained about 2% in California compared to how Clinton and Trump himself had done in 2016, with a decline in the third-party vote. Obviously, they also both gained in terms of raw number of votes-especially Biden, given the massive increase in turnout this year. 29% is still a very wide margin, but I think that the results here do reflect Trump's improvement among minority voters (i.e. Biden doing worse than Clinton in heavily Hispanic Imperial County); Biden's overall gain in the state over Clinton can be attributed to his gains among white voters, especially college-educated whites and white men, although he certainly received a higher raw number of nonwhite votes than Clinton did, again due to the increase in turnout.

45 increased his share of the vote by close to 3%. It doesn’t really bother me that the state as a whole swing ~1% R, it’s where most of the swing came from- San Jose and Los Angeles.

I get that Hillary was a uniquely good fit for California’s heavily college-educated, Latino, and Asian electorate. And the polls did suggest 45 increased his support among nonwhite groups from 2016. I understand how COVID-19 hampered the Dems’ ground game, and how lockdowns made many service-sector employees more receptive to the incumbent than they otherwise would be. But even so, it was surprising to see Trump do as well with those groups as I imagined only a hypothetical President Rubio would or even could.

[CityByTheValley]

45 increased his share of the vote by close to 3%. It doesn’t really bother me that the state as a whole swing ~1% R, it’s where most of the swing came from- San Jose and Los Angeles.

I get that Hillary was a uniquely good fit for California’s heavily college-educated, Latino, and Asian electorate. And the polls did suggest 45 increased his support among nonwhite groups from 2016. I understand how COVID-19 hampered the Dems’ ground game, and how lockdowns made many service-sector employees more receptive to the incumbent than they otherwise would be. But even so, it was surprising to see Trump do as well with those groups as I imagined only a hypothetical President Rubio would or even could.

Ugh, I feel this so hard, especially the swing in San Jose and the Bay Area. I seriously can't believe people voted for this absolute idiot over stimulus checks and toned down rhetoric on immigration while Democrats fight for a second stimulus and people like Stephen Miller are clearly influencing policy. On that note, I wonder if a reason for the lack of swing in educated and wealthy areas may also be attributed to the lack stimulus there. No one I personally know got money so our minds were entirely unchanged, but I would imagine getting money with Trump's name would indeed sway votes. I'm also surprised that San Mateo barely budged left, although I think the higher White population there is responsible for that, similar to what we see in Contra Costa and especially in Marin. I'd like to think Hillary Clinton has been somewhat vindicated in this case and she had some actual appeal to Asian and Hispanic voters (also seen in the primary), but there are too many circumstances at play to extrapolate reasons for the swings we see.

I do think this year indicates exactly the next places Democrats should target in CA though: the Central Valley + Sacramento Suburbs/Ski Country. Running higher margins in Fresno, Merced, Stanislaus, and San Joaquin, flipping Placer and Kern, and getting El Dorado and Tulare to a 50/50 by the end of this decade should help concentrate the GOP in only the Northeastern corner of the state. Biden's win here in Inyo seems to be indicative of the fact that long-standing GOP areas can and will eventually flip.

[Canis]

California is pretty much finished counting only about 9,000 votes left to process Biden wins Inyo county by 14 votes, in the end, theirs 2,000 votes left in Riverside and about 7,000 votes left in San Joaquin left to process. Pretty interesting how Biden carried Lake County pretty comfortably which was a Safe D county that started zooming to the right when Trump came very close to carrying it in 2016 Biden wins it in the end 51-45  Trump also breaks 6 million votes in California which is the most votes he got in any state in the country

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Why did this county flip even as california swung and trended R this cycle?

only about 21% Hispanic, and large tourist industry.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Trump also breaks 6 million votes in California which is the most votes he got in any state in the country

We talk a lot about the Trump-era EC bias against Democrats, but these people are effectively disenfranchised on the presidential level too. More Trump voters than any other state, and not a one of those Trump votes has any effect whatsoever on the election's outcome.

[mileslunn]

Trump also breaks 6 million votes in California which is the most votes he got in any state in the country

We talk a lot about the Trump-era EC bias against Democrats, but these people are effectively disenfranchised on the presidential level too. More Trump voters than any other state, and not a one of those Trump votes has any effect whatsoever on the election's outcome.

While won't happen, if they used the British or Canadian system, Democrats would win seats in most red states and GOP in most blue states, otherwise a parliamentary system so would use congressional districts.  If they used PR like most of Europe does, 64% of representation in California would be Democrat, 34% GOP.  Now like Nebraska and Maine, California could split its electoral votes, but seems dumb idea unless red states reciprocate otherwise just helping GOP.  Other option would be have electoral votes go proportionally, not winner take all, but again all not just some need to do this.  If allocated proportionally, it would be 36 for Biden, 19 for Trump in California.

[politicallefty]

I think California trending/swinging R is similar to how San Francisco trended R in 2008. Although I never believed Trump could get as many votes as he did in California (although that's true across the country), I never thought Democrats could realistically hit 70% in the state. I think the overall margin in the state reflects a 65-35 breakdown, as opposed to the 70-30 split some were predicting. I don't think California's swinging or trending Republican. I think whatever trends we've seen over the past several years have simply stabilized the state for now.

Prior to Obama and since Clinton in 1992, California would vote for Democrats by roughly 10-15%. A statewide candidate hitting 20%+ was quite a feat during that era. Obama crushed that by winning the state by 24% in 2008 and 23% in 2012. That was primarily accomplished by the Democratic breakthrough into Southern California and the Central Valley. Hillary took those trends and built on them even more, including the historic win in Orange County. If you look at the map this year, Biden has actually built on the swings in most of the state. The only noteworthy swings to Trump were Los Angeles County and Imperial County (the latter being very low population). Even in Los Angeles County, Biden only lost 0.8% from Hillary. It's just that Trump went up from the basement level he had in 2016.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I honestly don't think there's anything to extrapolate from California swinging <1% to the right other than "California swinging <1% to the right".

Even with the "significant" swing in LA, Biden is still only the second Democrat to ever get 70% there.

Can't decipher anything from it yet, stabilization or otherwise. Certainly not from one election