How did Biden win Inyo County, CA?

[Alben Barkley]

This was perhaps one of the biggest surprises of the election. In most of rural America, the electorate either stayed basically static (at most shifting a couple points to the left) or just shifted farther right. Yet Inyo County, CA -- a very rural and white county -- swung 14 points to the left and flipped for the first time since 1964. Even as CA as a whole trended slightly right.

Why exactly did this happen?

[Motorcity]

Trump hated California. He attacked it repeatly. Unlike other states like Michigan or Florida, he didn't even mention the "good rural parts". That's how much he hated the state. That's my guess

[Epaminondas]

Would someone explain to me how California's 8th CD includes Inyo (won by Biden), Mono (won by Biden) and San Bernardino (won by Biden) but Trump carried it by 10 points?

[beesley]

Would someone explain to me how California's 8th CD includes Inyo (won by Biden), Mono (won by Biden) and San Bernardino (won by Biden) but Trump carried it by 10 points?

San Bernardino is a very large county and contains lots of Republican areas to its north around Victorville and on the Arizona border. The staunchly Democratic cities are mostly in Districts 31 and 35 and I think a small bit of 39. Also, Mono and Inyo are a rather small proportion of the district.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Trump hated California. He attacked it repeatly. Unlike other states like Michigan or Florida, he didn't even mention the "good rural parts". That's how much he hated the state. That's my guess

Well than why did it swing to the right in 2020.

[Alben Barkley]

I mean let me put it this way:

If Biden's Inyo swing was reflective of the national environment, he would have won Iowa, Ohio, Texas, a whole bunch of states and easily exceeded 400 EVs.

Yet not only was it not consistent with Biden's national swing (which was more like just a couple of points), it wasn't even at all consistent with its own statewide swing (which, in terms of margin, was actually slightly towards Trump).

So why exactly did this particular county swing so dramatically towards Biden even as both its state and similar counties throughout the nation did not?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Would someone explain to me how California's 8th CD includes Inyo (won by Biden), Mono (won by Biden) and San Bernardino (won by Biden) but Trump carried it by 10 points?

Because California's 8th is dominated by San Bernardino County and this district happens to contain all the GOP strongholds of said county (Big Bear Lake, Yucaipa, unincorporated areas, etc.). Those GOP strongholds + Unincorporated SB County alone make up around 75% of the district.

Mono + Inyo (5.5% of CD-8):          Biden 53.3% - Trump 44.0%
San Bernardino (94.5% of CD-8):   Trump 54.6% -  Biden 43.0%

[Motorcity]

Trump hated California. He attacked it repeatly. Unlike other states like Michigan or Florida, he didn't even mention the "good rural parts". That's how much he hated the state. That's my guess

Well than why did it swing to the right in 2020.

It "swung" right because the collaspse of the third party vote

In 2016, 7% of California voted third party. In 2020, 2% voted third party

A good portion of third party voters in California switched to Trump.

In 2016, Hillary got 8.8 million votes and Trump got 4.4 million. Difference is 4.4 million

In 2020, Biden got 11.1 million and Trump got 6 million. Difference is 5.1 million. And the most any Democrat and Republican have ever gotten from a single state

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Trump hated California. He attacked it repeatly. Unlike other states like Michigan or Florida, he didn't even mention the "good rural parts". That's how much he hated the state. That's my guess

Well than why did it swing to the right in 2020.

It "swung" right because the collaspse of the third party vote

In 2016, 7% of California voted third party. In 2020, 2% voted third party

A good portion of third party voters in California switched to Trump.

In 2016, Hillary got 8.8 million votes and Trump got 4.4 million. Difference is 4.4 million

In 2020, Biden got 11.1 million and Trump got 6 million. Difference is 5.1 million. And the most any Democrat and Republican have ever gotten from a single state

Lol, 2016 third party voters voted for Biden in CA. CA swung right because Hispanics didn't vote as democratic as usual.

[Motorcity]

Trump hated California. He attacked it repeatly. Unlike other states like Michigan or Florida, he didn't even mention the "good rural parts". That's how much he hated the state. That's my guess

Well than why did it swing to the right in 2020.

It "swung" right because the collaspse of the third party vote

In 2016, 7% of California voted third party. In 2020, 2% voted third party

A good portion of third party voters in California switched to Trump.

In 2016, Hillary got 8.8 million votes and Trump got 4.4 million. Difference is 4.4 million

In 2020, Biden got 11.1 million and Trump got 6 million. Difference is 5.1 million. And the most any Democrat and Republican have ever gotten from a single state

Lol, 2016 third party voters voted for Biden in CA. CA swung right because Hispanics didn't vote as democratic as usual.

Lol?

In 2016, Hillary got 61.73%. Trump got 31.62%. Third parties got 6.65%

In 2020, Biden got 63.48%. Trump got 34.32%. Third parties got 2.2%

From 2016 to 2020, Democrats gained 1.75% and Republicans gained 2.7%.

So California is one of the few states where Trump ate more of the 2016 third party votes.

#facts #data

[Bootes Void]

isnt it a tourist area? I mean thats one of the main reasons why

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Trump hated California. He attacked it repeatly. Unlike other states like Michigan or Florida, he didn't even mention the "good rural parts". That's how much he hated the state. That's my guess

Well than why did it swing to the right in 2020.

It "swung" right because the collaspse of the third party vote

In 2016, 7% of California voted third party. In 2020, 2% voted third party

A good portion of third party voters in California switched to Trump.

In 2016, Hillary got 8.8 million votes and Trump got 4.4 million. Difference is 4.4 million

In 2020, Biden got 11.1 million and Trump got 6 million. Difference is 5.1 million. And the most any Democrat and Republican have ever gotten from a single state

Lol, 2016 third party voters voted for Biden in CA. CA swung right because Hispanics didn't vote as democratic as usual.

Lol?

In 2016, Hillary got 61.73%. Trump got 31.62%. Third parties got 6.65%

In 2020, Biden got 63.48%. Trump got 34.32%. Third parties got 2.2%

From 2016 to 2020, Democrats gained 1.75% and Republicans gained 2.7%.

So California is one of the few states where Trump ate more of the 2016 third party votes.

#facts #data

Fun Fact: some people voted in 2020 without voting in 2016.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

People who decide to move to  isolated wilderness  from an urban area after a pandemic strike tend to lean enviormentalists and Democrat. Remember Inyo county is large by area but practicaly empty with half of it being made-up of Death Valley National Park. I guesse it flipped because of an influx of nature loving urbanites.

Also apparently a member of the Inyo County Democratic Party Commite is a redditor so maybe message them (well I took the liberty of messaging them, hopefuly they can give us some insight).

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bishop/comments/c2kft9/opinions_on_living_in_bishop/

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I love how much hay has been made about California swinging a gargantuan 0.8% to the right (Not just in this thread)

[mileslunn]

It has Death Valley and Yosemite National Park so probably tourism.  It seems touristy rural areas swung towards Biden.  Same reason Leelanau county, Michigan flipped for example.  With COVID-19, a lot of your white collar workers moved as work remotely so areas that got a lot of ex-urbanites would swing left.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It has Death Valley and Yosemite National Park so probably tourism.  It seems touristy rural areas swung towards Biden.  Same reason Leelanau county, Michigan flipped for example.  With COVID-19, a lot of your white collar workers moved as work remotely so areas that got a lot of ex-urbanites would swing left.

This is possible if tourism has grown significantly in Inyo County since 2016. But if it's stayed roughly the same, there wouldn't be much of a swing.

I just looked at the 2014 and 2018 CA-GOV election results, and it seems Inyo swung 4.0pts to Newsom in 2018, while Cali as a whole swung 3.8pts in that direction - so at least in the most recent gubernatorial election, Inyo's partisan lean didn't really change. There's no trend, no real increase in the electorate, what happened in 2020 is weird.

[mileslunn]

It has Death Valley and Yosemite National Park so probably tourism.  It seems touristy rural areas swung towards Biden.  Same reason Leelanau county, Michigan flipped for example.  With COVID-19, a lot of your white collar workers moved as work remotely so areas that got a lot of ex-urbanites would swing left.

This is possible if tourism has grown significantly in Inyo County since 2016. But if it's stayed roughly the same, there wouldn't be much of a swing.

I just looked at the 2014 and 2018 CA-GOV election results, and it seems Inyo swung 4.0pts to Newsom in 2018, while Cali as a whole swung 3.8pts in that direction - so at least in the most recent gubernatorial election, Inyo's partisan lean didn't really change. There's no trend, no real increase in the electorate, what happened in 2020 is weird.

Good point, also small population tends to lead to stranger results as you get individuals who vote differently than would be predicted and if population large enough that balances out, but if small you get weird swings.  While you didn't see it on a county level, on a township level in Minnesota, there were a few that saw weird swings, although still most of those had fewer than 100 people where that might be expected not a few thousand. 

At same time I am guessing with Death Valley and Yosemite National Park, climate change was a bigger issue and GOP is quite weak on that.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I got a reply from the guy who's on the democratic party committee in Inyo.

Ah, I understand. Yes, compared to 2016, it is a larger swing. I’d say the primary difference is that there was literally no Democratic Central Committee in Inyo county in 2016. The state party did not offer assistance, and so it was re-formed from the ground up. I became involved in 2017, and it has met monthly ever since. We did GOTV, attended the state conventions, connected with other DCCs in neighboring counties, and new Regional and state party leadership really helped us get going with access to voter databases for targeted voter registration walks and postcard mailers.

Inyo also benefited from a very capable county clerk/registrar, who, while extremely non-partisan, was a relentless advocate for voting access, fought disinformation on social media, was was fanatically transparent and held numerous informative town halls in every Inyo town/city. She presented at the schools, public events, and really helped voters understand every step of the process. By the time Trump began to claim voter fraud, Kammi Foote had educated Inyo voters that the avenues for fraud were vanishingly small. Observers at polling places had nothing to claim, even anecdotally. Sadly, she has been recruited by a Federal agency for voter advocacy, and Ms McMurtrie will replace her at the county level.

It also didn’t help that the past administration’s rhetoric and policies were so openly distasteful that enough reasonable republicans found it off putting enough to either vote for Biden, or at least not vote for Trump.

Probably a confluence of all of those factors.

[OneJ]

This county has a relatively heavy Native American presence and Natives generally swung notably towards Biden across the country where there are high Native populations so that might explain some of it.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

It has Death Valley and Yosemite National Park so probably tourism.  It seems touristy rural areas swung towards Biden.  Same reason Leelanau county, Michigan flipped for example.  With COVID-19, a lot of your white collar workers moved as work remotely so areas that got a lot of ex-urbanites would swing left.

That still doesn't seem quite right to me. Most of the population is in a few Mojave desert towns. Death Valley isn't the biggest draw or source of jobs, and Yosemite Valley (where people actually work/visit/live near) is on the Central Valley side of the mountains. The ski resorts are all in Mono or further north and the tourism industry just isn't that big. I don't know what went on here, but tourism doesn't explain it for me.

[Xing]

Isn't Inyo fairly similar demographically to Alpine and Mono? To me, the bigger question is why it's voted so far to the right of both counties. All three have trended pretty far to the left since 2000.

[mileslunn]

It has Death Valley and Yosemite National Park so probably tourism.  It seems touristy rural areas swung towards Biden.  Same reason Leelanau county, Michigan flipped for example.  With COVID-19, a lot of your white collar workers moved as work remotely so areas that got a lot of ex-urbanites would swing left.

That still doesn't seem quite right to me. Most of the population is in a few Mojave desert towns. Death Valley isn't the biggest draw or source of jobs, and Yosemite Valley (where people actually work/visit/live near) is on the Central Valley side of the mountains. The ski resorts are all in Mono or further north and the tourism industry just isn't that big. I don't know what went on here, but tourism doesn't explain it for me.

Perhaps climate change as isn't this area been negatively impacted by forest fires and droughts so bigger issue than in past and Democrats stronger on that.

[Adam Griffin]

See: Teton County (WY & ID), Cook & Clay County (MN), Deschutes County (OR), etc.