USA 2020 Census Results Thread (Release: Today, 26 April)

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/benpershing/status/1425878056053448708?s=20

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1425878430399225863?s=20

[Jackson Lee]

The Bureau said only non-user friendly data will be released.

This is very user friendly though:

https://public.tableau.com/shared/KMF3Y8ZH3?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y

Also, NYC gained a lot of people and Phoenix overtook Philly:

[ProgressiveModerate]

[Jackson Lee]

The urbanization & suburbanization of the country is rapidly progressing (a bit slower than previously).

The decay of rural America is increasing ... especially this decade will be bad.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems like Hispanic population nationally was pretty spot on, so if there was an undercount in some areas, it wasn't universal.

Also, ye NYC was insane, and it also seems like Pheonix did well and isn't the reason AZ underperformed.

Looking over the numbers, it looks like Phoenix underperformed by a serious metric.
Phoneix was projected to grow at a rate of around 18% over the decade. It instead grew by only 11%. Still high, but a serious underperformance.

Ah thanks fpor clarifying I didn't realize it was expected to grow that much.

Not good news for Dems as it reduces the chance of AZ-6 being pulled in and becoming more swingy.

[BoiseBoy]

So what effects will this have on redistricting, broadly?

[danny]

The Bureau said only non-user friendly data will be released.

This is very user friendly though:

https://public.tableau.com/shared/KMF3Y8ZH3?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y

Also, NYC gained a lot of people and Phoenix overtook Philly:

So NYC grew faster than the country as a whole, the first time since 1940.

[soundchaser]

So what effects will this have on redistricting, broadly?

Broadly, the GOP is not going to gain as many seats from redistricting as they’d hoped.

[Storebought]

NYC: "But everybody is leaving that crime ridden liberal hellhole!"

And, seriously, take a look at San Antonio:

2020 census estimate: 1,567,118 (Wikipedia -- screencap it for reference).
2020 census count    : 1,434,625

That is an astoundingly bad estimate. And when I still lived in TX that was the city that had the best growth prospects, since Dallas was built out (and crime ridden, and full of liberals) and Houston was getting expensive and SA sprawls even worse than those two cities do.

[RI]

Seems like DC could be plurality white by 2030.

[ProgressiveModerate]

So seems like generally northern cities over performed, and southern cities were more a mixed bag, with Hispanic cities tending to underperform?

Rural areas seemed to range from neutral to significant underperformance across the board

[Oryxslayer]

Seems like DC could be plurality white by 2030.

Not surprising given the trends for a few decades. As someone who now lives in the old NE of the city, I've watched the neighbors change from elderly African Americans to young mixed-race or white couples. All because we live within a 15 minute walk of a metro station. What used to be DC has moved to PG and made way for the urban pioneers.

[Zaybay]

Alright, here are some of the trends I noticed overall about this census:

1. The rural/urban split is worse than we thought:

While the estimates had been showing urban areas as the centers of growth and rural areas as declining. The census really puts the nail in the coffin, showing even stronger figures than anticipated.

2. Sun Belt ain't so hot:

This seems to be the story after every single census. For all the reports about huge growth in the sunbelt, it always seems to be overexaggerated. The estimates for areas such as San Antonio and Phoenix were noticeably bad, but in general most urban, suburban, and rural areas down south underperformed.

3. NYC lives:

Again, another classic story from this decade; the death/decline of NYC. Turns out, city actually grew faster than the US this decade. I expect more stories about how the city is dying over this coming decade. Hell, we've already got a plethora to work from with 2020.

4. Moving data biases:

This one is more of a meta trend, but it really does look like sites such as Zillow, Redfin, Uhaul, etc. are missing something. Much of the predictions about growth have been based on their estimates, but it turns out that they grossly missed changes almost everywhere, with NYC being an extreme example. Perhaps this is due to the fact that those who use these sites tend to be young, well-off, and white? I honestly do not know for sure.

5. No real Hispanic undercount:

For all the worry about this, it looks like there wasn't really any undercount to speak of. The census largely got the same demographic numbers as the estimate, barring the overperformance of the "mixed" category.

[JerryArkansas]

Alright, here are some of the trends I noticed overall about this census:

1. The rural/urban split is worse than we thought:

While the estimates had been showing urban areas as the centers of growth and rural areas as declining. The census really puts the nail in the coffin, showing even worse figures than anticipated.

2. Sun Belt ain't so hot:

This seems to be the story after every single census. For all the reports about huge growth in the sunbelt, it always seems to be overexaggerated. The estimates for areas such as San Antonio and Phoenix were noticeably bad, but in general most urban, suburban, and rural areas down south underperformed.

3. NYC lives:

Again, another classic story from this decade; the death/decline of NYC. Turns out, city actually grew faster than the US this decade. I expect more stories about how the city is dying over this coming decade. Hell, we've already got a plethora to work from with 2020.

4. Moving data biases:

This one is more of a meta trend, but it really does look like sites such as Zillow, Redfin, Uhaul, etc. are missing something. Much of the predictions about growth have been based on their estimates, but it turns out that they grossly missed changes almost everywhere, with NYC being an extreme example. Perhaps this is due to the fact that those who use these sites tend to be young, well-off, and white? I honestly do not know for sure.

5. No real Hispanic undercount:

For all the worry about this, it looks like there wasn't really any undercount to speak of.

The sunbelt being so off my point to the Hispanic undercount happening a bit there.  And I know that in Arkansas, a lot of the cities have beat out the population estimates.  Fayetteville for example beat them out by 6k to pass Fort Smith for second largest.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

One sixth trend I'd add.

"Nice rural areas" are doing just fine. The parts of rural America with 1) decent metropolitan connectivity and 2) nice outdoor amenities grew, sometimes by a lot. Look at the Willamette Valley, Central Oregon, Idaho/Wyoming/Montana, the Colorado Rockies, Tahoe, Hill Country, Middle/Eastern TN, Charlottesville->Roanoke, Coastal Carolina and Georgia, Western Michigan, the Ozarks, the Black Hills, Wisconsin/Minnesota, Bluegrass Country, South Central PA, and Northern New England.

The geographically blessed corners of rural America have a bright future. It's the vast nondescript areas in between that are declining--which is obviously the larger land area.

[Zaybay]

Alright, here are some of the trends I noticed overall about this census:

1. The rural/urban split is worse than we thought:

While the estimates had been showing urban areas as the centers of growth and rural areas as declining. The census really puts the nail in the coffin, showing even worse figures than anticipated.

2. Sun Belt ain't so hot:

This seems to be the story after every single census. For all the reports about huge growth in the sunbelt, it always seems to be overexaggerated. The estimates for areas such as San Antonio and Phoenix were noticeably bad, but in general most urban, suburban, and rural areas down south underperformed.

3. NYC lives:

Again, another classic story from this decade; the death/decline of NYC. Turns out, city actually grew faster than the US this decade. I expect more stories about how the city is dying over this coming decade. Hell, we've already got a plethora to work from with 2020.

4. Moving data biases:

This one is more of a meta trend, but it really does look like sites such as Zillow, Redfin, Uhaul, etc. are missing something. Much of the predictions about growth have been based on their estimates, but it turns out that they grossly missed changes almost everywhere, with NYC being an extreme example. Perhaps this is due to the fact that those who use these sites tend to be young, well-off, and white? I honestly do not know for sure.

5. No real Hispanic undercount:

For all the worry about this, it looks like there wasn't really any undercount to speak of.

The sunbelt being so off my point to the Hispanic undercount happening a bit there.  And I know that in Arkansas, a lot of the cities have beat out the population estimates.  Fayetteville for example beat them out by 6k to pass Fort Smith for second largest.

Based on the numbers we got, I wouldn't say so.
The racial numbers overall were pretty accurate, with only whites and mixed representing the most variation from the estimates. County-wise its the same story. This looks way more like an overall overcount than just one demographic group, otherwise we should be seeing places like San Antonio being more white than the estimates predicted. Hell, in many areas in the Sunbelt, the Hispanic numbers overperformed the estimates.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Alright, here are some of the trends I noticed overall about this census:

1. The rural/urban split is worse than we thought:

While the estimates had been showing urban areas as the centers of growth and rural areas as declining. The census really puts the nail in the coffin, showing even worse figures than anticipated.

2. Sun Belt ain't so hot:

This seems to be the story after every single census. For all the reports about huge growth in the sunbelt, it always seems to be overexaggerated. The estimates for areas such as San Antonio and Phoenix were noticeably bad, but in general most urban, suburban, and rural areas down south underperformed.

3. NYC lives:

Again, another classic story from this decade; the death/decline of NYC. Turns out, city actually grew faster than the US this decade. I expect more stories about how the city is dying over this coming decade. Hell, we've already got a plethora to work from with 2020.

4. Moving data biases:

This one is more of a meta trend, but it really does look like sites such as Zillow, Redfin, Uhaul, etc. are missing something. Much of the predictions about growth have been based on their estimates, but it turns out that they grossly missed changes almost everywhere, with NYC being an extreme example. Perhaps this is due to the fact that those who use these sites tend to be young, well-off, and white? I honestly do not know for sure.

5. No real Hispanic undercount:

For all the worry about this, it looks like there wasn't really any undercount to speak of.

The sunbelt being so off my point to the Hispanic undercount happening a bit there.  And I know that in Arkansas, a lot of the cities have beat out the population estimates.  Fayetteville for example beat them out by 6k to pass Fort Smith for second largest.

I'm still in the belief that there might be an undercount. Census has always had problems reaching out to minority communities. Not to mention that Republicans gave off the indication last year that they were betting on a minority undercount and many of the sunbelt cities' growth are mostly minority driven.

[Seattle]

There's also a pretty significant under performance amongst fast growing major/core cities across the country. Seattle, Denver, DC, Boston, Austin, Atlanta, Las Vegas, etc.

Some like Portland/SF/El Paso/Minneapolis were less affected by this. And Nashville seems to a major overperformance.

[Ebsy]

Of note for St. Louis' long term demographic outlook, the City is now plurality white for the first time in decades:

City of St. Louis
Percent Black/African American alone or in combination: 45.4
Percent White alone or in combination: 49.2
Percent Asian alone or in combination: 5.1

[pikachu]

Huh Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse all grew. So did Trenton and Paterson.

[Gass3268]

Anyone know how to convert a .pl file into a .XLSX or .CSV file?

[Nyvin]

Northwest Arkansas continues to be a growth hub island in a vast sea of declines.

[Thunder98]

Southern California Counties Population change: Fastest to slowest

I'm surprised how slow Ventura County grew in the last decade.

                    2010   ===> 2020|    Percent change

Riverside : 2,189,641   |  2,418,185 | +10.4%
Kern :  839,631  |   909,235  | +8.3%
San Bernardino: 2,035,210 | 2,181,654 |  +7.2%
San Diego: 3,095,313 | 3,298,634 | +6.6%
Orange: 3,010,232 |  3,186,989 | +5.9%
Santa Barbara: 423,895 | 448,229 | +5.7%
San Luis Obispo: 269,637 | 282,424 | +4.7%
Imperial: 174,528 | 179,702 | +3%
Ventura: 823,318 | 843,843 | +2.5%
Los Angeles: 9,818,605 | 10,014,009| +2.0%

[soundchaser]

Maybe I'm wrong, but it does look more likely now that NY loses a district upstate rather than in NYC itself. (Or were we thinking that would happen already?)

[pikachu]

Not totally surprised, but Alameda and Santa Clara counties have larger Asian pluralities than I expected. In something that actually surprises me, Queens is extremely close to becoming plurality Asian and Asians have overtaken non-Hispanic Blacks in Manhattan.