USA 2020 Census Results Thread (Release: Today, 26 April)

[ProgressiveModerate]

My take is there will be a strong correlation with how places swung in the 2020 election and where under/over performances occurred.

[ProgressiveModerate]

And now their giving a cheesy overview of redistricting even though I guarentee you everyone watching the livestream knows what it is.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lol I love how the guy makes it sound like our country is doomed because of the slowing growth in recent decades

[ProgressiveModerate]

Their definition for "metro areas" are way too lenient.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems like Hispanic population nationally was pretty spot on, so if there was an undercount in some areas, it wasn't universal.

Also, ye NYC was insane, and it also seems like Pheonix did well and isn't the reason AZ underperformed.

[ProgressiveModerate]

EVERY FLORIDA COUNTY!

270,788    278,468    Alachua County
29,497    28,259    Baker County
171,962    175,216    Bay County
28,532    28,303    Bradford County
606,610    606,612    Brevard County
1,957,451    1,944,375    Broward County
14,093    13,648    Calhoun County
193,457    186,847    Charlotte County
152,300    153,843    Citrus County
221,085    218,245    Clay County
391,219    375,752    Collier County
72,433    69,698    Columbia County
38,346    33,976    DeSoto County
17,015    16,759    Dixie County
965,019    995,567    Duval County
321,622    321,905    Escambia County
117,713    115,378    Flagler County
12,179    12,451    Franklin County
45,375    43,826    Gadsden County
18,807    17,864    Gilchrist County
14,127    12,126    Glades County
13,525    14,192    Gulf County
14,508    14,004    Hamilton County
26,818    25,327    Hardee County
42,628    39,619    Hendry County
197,673    194,515    Hernando County
106,453    101,235    Highlands County
1,492,605    1,459,762    Hillsborough County
19,611    19,653    Holmes County
161,827    159,788    Indian River County
46,128    47,319    Jackson County
14,478    14,510    Jefferson County
8,458    8,226    Lafayette County
373,366    383,956    Lake County
786,168    760,822    Lee County
295,064    292,198    Leon County
42,066    42,915    Levy County
8,358    7,974    Liberty County
18,680    17,968    Madison County
409,170    399,710    Manatee County
371,644    375,908    Marion County
161,870    158,431    Martin County
2,708,374    2,701,767    Miami-Dade County
73,899    82,874    Monroe County
90,484    90,352    Nassau County
212,470    211,668    Okaloosa County
42,258    39,644    Okeechobee County
1,402,152    1,429,908    Orange County
382,544    388,656    Osceola County
1,505,163    1,492,191    Palm Beach County
566,339    561,891    Pasco County
976,445    959,107    Pinellas County
739,683    725,046    Polk County
74,689    73,321    Putnam County
188,007    188,000    Santa Rosa County
441,362    434,006    Sarasota County
473,579    470,856    Seminole County
275,322    273,425    St. Johns County
334,918    329,226    St. Lucie County
137,714    129,752    Sumter County
44,744    43,474    Suwannee County
21,584    21,796    Taylor County
15,190    16,147    Union County
559,649    553,543    Volusia County
34,149    33,764    Wakulla County
76,021    75,305    Walton County
25,861    25,318    Washington County


FIRST ROW IS ORIGINAL PROJECTION
SECOND ROW IS FINAL RESULT
THIRD ROW IS COUNTY NAME

Thanks for compiling this. There seems to be an error in counties that start with the letter "S" though.

Most notably has to be Duval county though which had a decent overperformance. It's prolly stioll gonna be cracked but increases the chances a bit of FL-5 surviving, especially if the black population did well, you can make a 46% black seat.

Seems like the interior peninsula slightly underperformed which is also notable.

[ProgressiveModerate]

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems like Hispanic population nationally was pretty spot on, so if there was an undercount in some areas, it wasn't universal.

Also, ye NYC was insane, and it also seems like Pheonix did well and isn't the reason AZ underperformed.

Looking over the numbers, it looks like Phoenix underperformed by a serious metric.
Phoneix was projected to grow at a rate of around 18% over the decade. It instead grew by only 11%. Still high, but a serious underperformance.

Ah thanks fpor clarifying I didn't realize it was expected to grow that much.

Not good news for Dems as it reduces the chance of AZ-6 being pulled in and becoming more swingy.

[ProgressiveModerate]

So seems like generally northern cities over performed, and southern cities were more a mixed bag, with Hispanic cities tending to underperform?

Rural areas seemed to range from neutral to significant underperformance across the board

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lol this pretty closely corresponds with states that over abs underfoot we expctedation in 2020. Again, color me skeptical.

Really though if Tx was actually undercounted and didn’t get the 39th seat that’s the GOPs own fault

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lol this pretty closely corresponds with states that over abs underfoot we expctedation in 2020. Again, color me skeptical.

Really though if Tx was actually undercounted and didn’t get the 39th seat that’s the GOPs own fault

Nah, it seems about right

The states with the biggest underperformances were DC, Arizona, and the Carolinas, which the census has gotten right. Not Texas and Florida, with very minor underperformances.

Also the states with the biggest overperformances included Vermont and New Jersey, and Illinois actually overperformed too (despite being undercounted according to PES).

This isn't the Census Bureau trying to get back to their old numbers, maybe the Sun Belt is just rising.

The sun belt is still generally growing but not as fast relative to the north as it used to. Especially in a lot of northern cities in the Northeast and Midwest that had been shrinking for decades are now breaking even or at least not shrinking as badly.

Seems like going forwards growth will be less regional and more based around cores

An underrated factor too is in places like CA, TX, and AZ you’re starting to see issues that come with the warmer weather such as water availability which have only rlly become more notable in the past 2 or 3 decades. Especially with climate change northern states could gain more desire ability

States like Washington, Oregon, and much of the Pacific Northwest seems to have a lot of potential