USA 2020 Census Results Thread (Release: Today, 26 April)

[Vern]

I’m calling it. NC will surpass GA in population.

[Tender Branson]

I’m calling it. NC will surpass GA in population.

It’s not impossible.

They could also be within a few hundred people ...

[Skill and Chance]

I'm making the prediction Florida will be bigger than expected (Expected Population: 21,673,328) because of improved outreach to people. I've seen it with my own eyes, this year it was way bigger and more expansive than it was 10 years ago, there were signs and flyers everywhere, and the census takers knocked on our door 5 different times even after we filled the form out online. The last census my family didn't even get counted, there was zero outreach. This maybe is just my neighborhood but I wouldn't be surprised if it's a common experience.

Yes, I strongly expect FL to overperform.  Absolutely no doubt it gains 2 seats.  The housing market there is on fire in a way that puts 2006 to shame. 

[Vern]

I'm making the prediction Florida will be bigger than expected (Expected Population: 21,673,328) because of improved outreach to people. I've seen it with my own eyes, this year it was way bigger and more expansive than it was 10 years ago, there were signs and flyers everywhere, and the census takers knocked on our door 5 different times even after we filled the form out online. The last census my family didn't even get counted, there was zero outreach. This maybe is just my neighborhood but I wouldn't be surprised if it's a common experience.

Yes, I strongly expect FL to overperform.  Absolutely no doubt it gains 2 seats.  The housing market there is on fire in a way that puts 2006 to shame. 

We are seeing the same thing in NC. Are at least in my area that I live in.

[Tender Branson]

WA btw has seen a significant increase in self-response between the 2010 and 2020 counts.

Its population might break 8 million already, instead of the 7.7 million (estimate).

[Skill and Chance]

Inner NOVA also tends to always beat its estimates, probably also due to super high civic engagement.  VA isn't close enough to the bubble for it to matter this time, but it could put the state back on track to pick up VA-12 in 2031.

[Cokeland Saxton]

Inner NOVA also tends to always beat its estimates, probably also due to super high civic engagement.  VA isn't close enough to the bubble for it to matter this time, but it could put the state back on track to pick up VA-12 in 2031.

If its growth recovers, that is

[Gass3268]

Also, I think there's an underrated possibility that the oil crash plus lack of state interest/investment in supporting the count keeps Texas at +2 instead of +3.

Can California avoid loosing a seat ?. The state has been doing suprisingly well in some respects with tax revenue.

Highly unlikely.  CA-53 is almost as far down the order of precedence as VA-12.  There would have to be 4 or 5 different surprises in other states for that to happen.  

TX-39, AL-07, NY-26, and MN-08 are all sitting right on the bubble.  

Minnesota keeping 08 would be crazy given how it was almost seen as an automatic at the start of the decade. But they've had strong growth late and Minnesota has the best civic engagement in the country.

[Tender Branson]

If there was an overcount in the range of the 335-336 million (instead of the 329 million estimate), it would be on the higher end of the „Demographic Analysis“ from the Census Bureau and would beat estimates by 2%.

A 2% overcount could lead to CA surpassing 40 million, TX 30 million, MI maybe above 10 million again, AL maybe above 5 and DE above 1 million.

But only if it’s uniform.

[Skill and Chance]

A lot is riding on whether pandemic Sunbelt migration/WFH from vacation home was over or undercounted.  The later most people in an area responded, the more it would be accounted for.  College towns could also end up underpopulated vs. expectations.  In some states, it's a tradeoff between more more exposure to pandemic migration/resort WFH vs. more exposure to the commodities crash.  If you're Texas or Montana, I don't know which outcome you are hoping for...

[Crumpets]

Random anecdote re: COVID migration. The official date of the census was April 1st, which for me, was well after my office closed and people started to go to wherever they were going to spend the work at home period. I was one of the very last to leave DC among my friends and I left on April 4th. Not sure how many of them took this into account when filling out their censuses, though.

[Skill and Chance]

If you consider self-response rates as a good indicator for how much we can expect states to overperform or underperform, then Nevada is another prime target for overperforming.

Nevada tied with Washington state to experience the highest increase in self-response rate between 2010 and 2020, and went from 61.4% to 66.6% (+5.2%)

Michigan comes in third, with its self-response rate increasing by +3.6%, and Arizona and Colorado tie for fourth, with both of them having their self-response rates increase by +2.8%.

On the flipside, Montana had the worst decline, with its self-response rate going from 64.6% to 60.4% (-4.2%).

South Carolina (-3.7%), North Dakota (-3.6%), West Virginia (-2.9%), and Wyoming (-2.3%) all experienced collapses in self-response rates as well.

Among larger states, Texas was notable for its decrease in self-response rate as well.


Here's a full map where you can take a look at trends in self-reporting between 2010 and 2020:



Image Link

Hmmm... this looks really bad for MT-02 and fairly bad for TX-39, but pretty encouraging for AL-07, MN-08, and NY-26 and really great for C0-08, AZ-10, and OR-06.  And look, there's those extra 50K people in VA-10/11 again!

[cinyc]

There's an interactive map for relative self-response rates by tract:

https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/20-census/monthly-self-response-rate

But I'd caution everyone that self-response isn't everything. Non-response follow-up efforts and imputation matter, too.

[Vern]

Less than an hour!!!!

[Cokeland Saxton]

43 minutes pog

[cinyc]

Census' YouTube stream has started:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnZqLlOwUhE

No press conference yet. They're going through facts about data collection and the like.

[Tender Branson]

This is like Christmas.

[Tender Branson]

Here's my final guess for the US resident population:

332.854.397

[ultraviolet]

My guess: 331,490,532
Michigan: 10,023,748

*based on nothing

[Nyvin]

I can't watch the live feed atm - Has it started?

[ultraviolet]

331,449,281

So close!!

[ultraviolet]

CA: 39,538,223
GA>NC
WY: 576,851

Michigan got to 10 Million!

[Tender Branson]

Projected April 01, 2020 population for 50 states and District of Columbia: 329,197,157

Actual population: 331,449,281

My guess: 331,490,532
Michigan: 10,023,748

*based on nothing

Damn Ultraviolet!

!!!

[Stuart98]

Here we gooooooo

[Tender Branson]

GA remains ahead of NC.