MI-GOV Megathread: 👵🏻 Gram died alone.

[wbrocks67]

Yikes

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1563163846558175232

[Sir Mohamed]

Yikes

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1563163846558175232

Either GOP candidates in swing races for gov or senate are totally out of touch MAGA cultists or they're just some random people with no own brand on top. Let alone have any meaningful experience that qualifies them for the job they're running.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The latest EPIC-MRA poll has the proposed constitutional amendment for protecting abortion access overwhelmingly passing.



And these cross tabs are staggering:

18-34: 81% YES, 13% NO
34-49: 70% YES, 20% NO
50-64: 63% YES, 27% NO
65+: 58% YES, 31% NO

White: 64% YES, 27% NO
Black: 89% YES, 6% NO

DEM: 92% YES, 5% NO
IND: 70% YES, 18% NO
GOP: 40% YES, 46% NO

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

considering the #s we saw in KS this isn't surprising. This certainly can't be good news for James and Gibbs.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

considering the #s we saw in KS this isn't surprising. This certainly can't be good news for James and Gibbs.

And it's certainly not good news for Dixon, who keeps shooting her mouth off about supporting a complete ban.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Looks like Michigan is about to trend hard R in two years

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Looks like Michigan is about to trend hard R in two years

Explain.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Looks like Michigan is about to trend hard R in two years

Explain.

I always thought of Michigan as similar to other battleground states where the split is somewhere like 40-55, but if it’s this drastic then it’s actually amazing that republicans have ever competed here. I imagine it could start to look more like Wisconsin if it’s no longer on the ballot and other issues take precedence, especially if there’s an “itch” with Whitmer being in another term

[Nyvin]

Looks like Michigan is about to trend hard R in two years

Explain.

I always thought of Michigan as similar to other battleground states where the split is somewhere like 40-55, but if it’s this drastic then it’s actually amazing that republicans have ever competed here. I imagine it could start to look more like Wisconsin if it’s no longer on the ballot and other issues take precedence, especially if there’s an “itch” with Whitmer being in another term

This makes no sense...what are you saying?   Like Whitmer will win with 64% of the vote and then Biden wins with 53% in 2024 so that's "trending hard R"?

[Real Texan Politics]

https://twitter.com/RealPData/status/1563227538184216576?s=20&t=Ryc3QwSQS7us...

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/RealPData/status/1563227538184216576?s=20&t=Ryc3QwSQS7us...

Lol, don't forget that Trashfalger had Trump winning by 2 here and he lost by 3.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Looks like Michigan is about to trend hard R in two years

Explain.

I always thought of Michigan as similar to other battleground states where the split is somewhere like 40-55, but if it’s this drastic then it’s actually amazing that republicans have ever competed here. I imagine it could start to look more like Wisconsin if it’s no longer on the ballot and other issues take precedence, especially if there’s an “itch” with Whitmer being in another term

This makes no sense...what are you saying?   Like Whitmer will win with 64% of the vote and then Biden wins with 53% in 2024 so that's "trending hard R"?

Sorry should have quoted the poll. My point was that Michigan is apparently more pro-choice than I realized and that the gap between R support and abortion restriction support seems to be larger than many other states. Meaning there are clearly other issues that R’s have strength with in Michigan that may grow in importance once they’re no longer voting on abortion

[GALeftist]

Looks like Michigan is about to trend hard R in two years

Explain.

I always thought of Michigan as similar to other battleground states where the split is somewhere like 40-55, but if it’s this drastic then it’s actually amazing that republicans have ever competed here. I imagine it could start to look more like Wisconsin if it’s no longer on the ballot and other issues take precedence, especially if there’s an “itch” with Whitmer being in another term

This makes no sense...what are you saying?   Like Whitmer will win with 64% of the vote and then Biden wins with 53% in 2024 so that's "trending hard R"?

Sorry should have quoted the poll. My point was that Michigan is apparently more pro-choice than I realized and that the gap between R support and abortion restriction support seems to be larger than many other states. Meaning there are clearly other issues that R’s have strength with in Michigan that may grow in importance once they’re no longer voting on abortion

My issue with this take is that it cuts both ways; there might well be single-issue pro-life voters who are up for grabs if people perceive this referendum as the final word on the matter. If they don't think it's settled after this year, I don't see why the pro-choicers would think so.

[wbrocks67]

A D+17 sample showing Whitmer up 4 would have Dixon winning indies by like what, 20-30% or something? I have no idea what is wrong there but clearly something is off (unless their sample is somehow D+17 and they weighted it to a better electorate)

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

What do you guys think about the row offices? Those are really important
Polling has Benson outperforming Nessel, however after the whole DePerno voting machine scandal, I think Nessel ends up outrunning in the end imo.

[Alben Barkley]

A D+17 sample showing Whitmer up 4 would have Dixon winning indies by like what, 20-30% or something? I have no idea what is wrong there but clearly something is off (unless their sample is somehow D+17 and they weighted it to a better electorate)

Trashfailgarbage is not really so much a pollster as they are an "unskewer." I am convinced their "methodology" is they just take polls and add like 10 points to the Republican and sometimes get lucky when the other polls really are that off, but are hilariously wrong in every other case.

[Oryxslayer]

State convention currently in a brouhaha over Lt. Gov nominee among other things - these a picture of a "real" Macomb county delegation challenging the official delegates sent.

[Nyvin]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/abortion-rights-michigan-ballot-initiative-election-board/

The two Republicans on the elections board rejected both the abortion measure and the voting rights measure,  but the rejections were based on small grammar errors and other trivial things that aren't actually issues with the measure itself.   

I'd think both measures will be passed by the MI supreme court easily, it seems like a slam dunk case frankly.

[President Johnson]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/abortion-rights-michigan-ballot-initiative-election-board/

The two Republicans on the elections board rejected both the abortion measure and the voting rights measure,  but the rejections were based on small grammar errors and other trivial things that aren't actually issues with the measure itself.   

I'd think both measures will be passed by the MI supreme court easily, it seems like a slam dunk case frankly.

Honestly, if you're really voting to reject such ballot initiatives because of that, maybe it's time to admit your side is losing on the issue and that you really don't believe in democracy since your desired outcome won't happen.

[wbrocks67]

Based on the latest post-primary fundraising reports...

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1565438017891975168

[ProgressiveModerate]

Do ya'll think a relative strong Whitmer performance could help Dems get a 8-5 congressional delegation out of MI? If I had to guess at this point, MI-03, MI-07, MI-08, and MI-10 all seem to be leaning in Whitmer's favor and all seats seem to have a realistic chance of going either way for US House

An 8-5 delegation from MI would be extremely helpful to Dems if they want to have a shot at keeping their House majority, especially since 3 of those seats (MI-07, MI-08, and MI-10) are to the right of the median House seat on 2020 Pres numbers.

[S019]

Do ya'll think a relative strong Whitmer performance could help Dems get a 8-5 congressional delegation out of MI. If I had to guess at this point, MI-03, MI-07, MI-08, and MI-10 all seem to be leaning in Whitmer's favor and all seats seem to have a realistic chance of going either way.

An 8-5 delegation from MI would be extremely helpful to Dems if they want to have a shot at keeping their House majority, especially since 3 of those seats (MI-07, MI-08, and MI-10) are to the right of the median House seat on 2020 Pres numbers.

It definitely could, I had initially written off MI-10 as an R gain especially with James, but if Whitmer wins by like 6-7 statewide, then Democrats holding on there could be very plausible. MI-07 and MI-08 are both going to be tough but the implosion of the MIGOP should help Dems there. I'd say Dems get a 7-6 D delegation in the end.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Do ya'll think a relative strong Whitmer performance could help Dems get a 8-5 congressional delegation out of MI. If I had to guess at this point, MI-03, MI-07, MI-08, and MI-10 all seem to be leaning in Whitmer's favor and all seats seem to have a realistic chance of going either way.

An 8-5 delegation from MI would be extremely helpful to Dems if they want to have a shot at keeping their House majority, especially since 3 of those seats (MI-07, MI-08, and MI-10) are to the right of the median House seat on 2020 Pres numbers.

It definitely could, I had initially written off MI-10 as an R gain especially with James, but if Whitmer wins by like 6-7 statewide, then Democrats holding on there could be very plausible. MI-07 and MI-08 are both going to be tough but the implosion of the MIGOP should help Dems there. I'd say Dems get a 7-6 D delegation in the end.

Also I think people forget that James actually lost the new MI-10 in both of his Senate bids lol. The Dem candidate seems at least fairly well known to the area too. This was never a default R gain even if Trump narrowly won the seat.

I really have to commend the MI Commission on their congressional maps. They're compact, make sense in terms of COIs, and have a variety of competitive districts. The state legislative maps seem  bit rushed though ngl and they did too much to unpack black seats to the point where it hurts black voters.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1565720326172016641

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1565720326172016641

Jamie Harrison, Cal Cunningham, and Sara Gideon agree that Democrats raising more money is a sign they are winning