MI-GOV Megathread: 👵🏻 Gram died alone.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Hard to see Dixon winning unless it's a total, unequivocal wipeout, but I won't be surprised if it's uncomfortably close for Democrats (Whitmer+4 or something).

To be frank, Whitmer+4 isn't even that bad. It's not like Gary Peters' bare win from 2020. Now that was uncomfortable! I personally don't see her winning by more than six or seven points.

[SnowLabrador]

Peters went from winning by 13% in a red wave to winning by less than 2% in a slightly blue-leaning year. He's an underdog in 2026, and Whitmer is still in serious trouble this year.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Peters went from winning by 13% in a red wave to winning by less than 2% in a slightly blue-leaning year. He's an underdog in 2026, and Whitmer is still in serious trouble this year.

Whitmer is not in serious trouble this year.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

and there it is

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1555183767970611200

Just came here to post this. Absolutely brutal.

Are Dixon and Whitmer debating this year? If so, I'd expect Gretchen to absolutely take her to the cleaners.

[KaiserDave]

I could see Whitmer winning by 2-3 points when all is said and done.

[Tekken_Guy]

This is shaping up to be this year’s version of Ducey vs. Garcia.

[MT Treasurer]

As someone who generally believes that Republicans have indeed shot themselves in the foot with their candidates this year and are probably going to throw away a couple of really winnable seats, people are dramatically exaggerating how "safe" or invulnerable Whitmer is and how "unelectable" Tudor Dixon supposedly is (if it’s only about her "extremism", I’d argue that she’s more difficult to paint as "extremist" than someone like Mastriano). While Whitmer winning by a few percentage points even on an underwhelming night for Democrats is possible, she’s not going to come close to a 15-point win unless you think 2022 will be a Democratic tidal wave.

I agree that Whitmer's critics may have been more "vocal" than the opponents of other Democratic governors, but it’s hard to argue that Whitmer has more crossover appeal than Peters or that Dixon is somehow "weak" enough to suffer substantial losses among the Republican base or Trump voters. Whitmer didn’t just suddenly stop being "polarizing" just because Dixon is supposedly "weak."

Frankly, many of the takes about this race (e.g. MI voting ~15 points to the left of GA, ~10 points to the left of WI, Whitmer with a 99% chance of winning reelection, MI being Solid D and considerably less likely to flip than ME/NM/etc.) have been downright irrational.

[TML]

As someone who generally believes that Republicans have indeed shot themselves in the foot with their candidates this year and are probably going to throw away a couple of really winnable seats, people are dramatically exaggerating how "safe" or invulnerable Whitmer is and how "unelectable" Tudor Dixon supposedly is (if it’s only about her "extremism", I’d argue that she’s more difficult to paint as "extremist" than someone like Mastriano). While Whitmer winning by a few percentage points even on an underwhelming night for Democrats is possible, she’s not going to come close to a 15-point win unless you think 2022 will be a Democratic tidal wave.

I agree that Whitmer's critics may have been more "vocal" than the opponents of other Democratic governors, but it’s hard to argue that Whitmer has more crossover appeal than Peters or that Dixon is somehow "weak" enough to suffer substantial losses among the Republican base or Trump voters. Whitmer didn’t just suddenly stop being "polarizing" just because Dixon is supposedly "weak."

Frankly, many of the takes about this race (e.g. MI voting ~15 points to the left of GA, ~10 points to the left of WI, Whitmer with a 99% chance of winning reelection, MI being Solid D and considerably less likely to flip than ME/NM/etc.) have been downright irrational.

As of this writing, 538's forecast model gives Whitmer a 95% chance of winning reelection. Are you implying that even this forecast is too optimistic?

[MT Treasurer]

As of this writing, 538's forecast model gives Whitmer a 95% chance of winning reelection. Are you implying that even this forecast is too optimistic?

95% is certainly more reasonable than their previous estimate (99%), but still too high in my view. I’d only peg it that high if I knew that Democrats were going to win a resounding victory across the board this November and that this would be the best midterm election for the President's party since 1934.

[ProgressiveModerate]

As of this writing, 538's forecast model gives Whitmer a 95% chance of winning reelection. Are you implying that even this forecast is too optimistic?

95% is certainly more reasonable than their previous estimate (99%), but still too high in my view. I’d only peg it that high if I knew that Democrats were going to win a resounding victory across the board this November and that this would be the best midterm election for the President's party since 1934.

538 has MI and MD Gov voting basically the same which doesn't seem right, especially since there has basically been no serious polls from MI.

I don't understand how fundamentals alone can Push Whitmer up so much in their model to the point where they can have that degree of confidence, especially when the overall outlook for Dems doesn't seem too great.

[wbrocks67]

Michigan also has the abortion referendum though on the ballot. As we saw with KS, that's going to turbocharge turnout for Democrats and Indies, which is a huge help to Whitmer and other Dems on the ballot.

[Politician]

538 literally has MI safer than VT lol

[President Johnson]

538 literally has MI safer than VT lol

I actually agree this time, and 95% winning chance is a bit too high. I also don't think Whitmer will win the projected vote share of 55%. In a best case scenario for her, it would be closer to 2018, which was 53-43%.

[Orwell]

Voting for the first time in a general election for Whitmer, gonna register and vote when I get to college in East Lansing so I can vote for Slotkin in MI-8 and Democrats in actually competitive/winning elections instead of my home CD which stretches across the entire Southern border of the state.

In my friend group, of the in state guys who are voting in Michigan, I know my friend and I are voting for Whitmer, he's from Detroit suburbs though. Another friend from the same suburb as him I know he and friend number 3 are voting GOP.

[ShadowRocket]

Michigan also has the abortion referendum though on the ballot. As we saw with KS, that's going to turbocharge turnout for Democrats and Indies, which is a huge help to Whitmer and other Dems on the ballot.

This has been my thought as well.

Given the usual midterm dynamics, I wouldn't write off Dixon, but the Dobbs decision and the abortion referendum will provide a huge boon for Whitmer.

Lean D would be my rating personally.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

538 literally has MI safer than VT lol

Phil Scott has the highest approval rating in the nation and was up by 40% in the most recent poll. Considering you are an unapologetic R hack, I thought you'd agree with that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 literally has MI safer than VT lol

Phil Scott has the highest approval rating in the nation and was up by 40% in the most recent poll. Considering you are an unapologetic R hack, I thought you'd agree with that.

I suspect he's laughing at 538 for the questionable (to put it mildly!) rating of Whitmer's chances as better than Scott's.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The MI GOP continues its rapid decent towards becoming the worst state party in the country.

https://twitter.com/JonathanLanday/status/1556418275915055104?s=20&t=NG1xtud...

[Progressive Pessimist]

The MI GOP continues its rapid decent towards becoming the worst state party in the country.

https://twitter.com/JonathanLanday/status/1556418275915055104?s=20&t=NG1xtud...

With all the attention going to the WHitmer-Dixon race, we shouldn't forget that it's imperative for Benson and Nessel to win too. That goes for all Attorney General and Secretary of State elections across the country this year. Hopefully Americans, Democrats in particular, finally recognize the significant importance of these offices after the proliferation of the Big Lie.

[wbrocks67]

The entire MI GOP statewide ticket is horrendous, jesus.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The MI GOP continues its rapid decent towards becoming the worst state party in the country.

https://twitter.com/JonathanLanday/status/1556418275915055104?s=20&t=NG1xtud...

Lock him up!

[wbrocks67]

There's rumors floating around about some possible old Tudor Dixon video that is making the rounds?

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1557548174046334976

[GeorgiaModerate]

Unverified social media rumors should be treated with caution.  But do let us know if something substantiated turns up!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

There were rumors about something like this floating around even around the time Craig dropped out.  Taking this with a grain of salt until it gets reported by credible sources, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns out to be true.

[libertpaulian]

Honestly, these videos should be dropping in October, not now. WAY too early.