2021 LA-02 Special Election Runoff (4/24/2021) Megathread

[VAR]

Prediction:

Troy Carter - 55.5%
Karen Carter Peterson - 44.5%

It would be a tremendous victory for the party's left flank if Peterson pulls it off.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

With less than 1/10 of a percent in Carter is winning 2 to 1

[Stuart98]

From what I've seen on twitter, Carter's underperforming benchmarks right now. KCP doing better than expected. This is only off a handful of data points though, still a lot of unknowns.

[Gracile]

We won't get the full picture until the election day vote is in, but it seems like it will be a close race with KCP maybe being slightly favored.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

The race is gonna be won and lost in Jefferson and Orleans, both of which are still outstanding

[Matty]

KCP is beating benchmarks everywhere except EBR

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1386133425124413442?s=20

For reference, Cullivan's benchmarks had it as 50-50if the race was tied so...

[Matty]

Interesting that black voters up in missouri helped cori bush pull off the huge upset

but down in nola region, black voters seem to much more split.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Interesting that black voters up in missouri helped cori bush pull off the huge upset

but down in nola region, black voters seem to much more split.

Black voters aren’t a monolith. Bush’s districts and the 2nd are incredibly different, with the later being much more rural

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Interesting that black voters up in missouri helped cori bush pull off the huge upset

but down in nola region, black voters seem to much more split.

Black voters aren’t a monolith. Bush’s districts and the 2nd are incredibly different, with the later being much more rural

Three things:
Cori Bush was very likely put over the top by white voters (not that it delegitimazes her win or anything)
MO-01 has practically no rural voters to start with
Blacks in MO=/=blacks in LA

[VAR]

Looks like I was pretty much spot on. Nice!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah, it’s looking like it’ll be Troy.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Things do not look good for KCP.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

NYT calls it for Carter.

[DINGO Joe]

Interesting that black voters up in missouri helped cori bush pull off the huge upset

but down in nola region, black voters seem to much more split.

Black voters aren’t a monolith. Bush’s districts and the 2nd are incredibly different, with the later being much more rural

The river parishes aren't so much rural as they are industrial.  Black or white your likely to be working at a chemical plant or refinery,  with Ascension and St. Charles more suburban, but with the white parts most cut out of the district.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1386149609026822150
ouch. Orleans Parish...

[Alben Barkley]

Never bet against a Jim Clyburn-endorsed candidate in a Democratic primary.

[Matty]

You gotta feel kind of bad for KCP though

she met or exceeded her margins everywhere except where it counted most.

[DINGO Joe]

Never bet against a Jim Clyburn-endorsed candidate in a Democratic primary.

Well, it's actually the General, but in this case, same thing.

[chalmetteowl]

You gotta feel kind of bad for KCP though

she met or exceeded her margins everywhere except where it counted most.

white republicans in the district won it for Carter

they heard she was a Hillary superdelegate and that AOC and Stacey Abrams were supporting her. Her ads were saturating TV leading up to today

[DINGO Joe]

You gotta feel kind of bad for KCP though

she met or exceeded her margins everywhere except where it counted most.

white republicans in the district won it for Carter

they heard she was a Hillary superdelegate and that AOC and Stacey Abrams were supporting her. Her ads were saturating TV leading up to today

Probably not.  Doubt there were 7800 Republicans who voted in the runoff, much less 7800 white ones.

[Oryxslayer]

You gotta feel kind of bad for KCP though

she met or exceeded her margins everywhere except where it counted most.

white republicans in the district won it for Carter

they heard she was a Hillary superdelegate and that AOC and Stacey Abrams were supporting her. Her ads were saturating TV leading up to today

Probably not.  Doubt there were 7800 Republicans who voted in the runoff, much less 7800 white ones.

If anything, the reason why Carter won was because of New Orleans White Liberals. He expected to win what few republicans turned out, but it was not part of his path to victory to nearly tie KCP in her senate district. But he did. KCP needed a better urban progressive white vote to turn out for her, and it didn't.

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1386159419801575426?s=20

[chalmetteowl]

You gotta feel kind of bad for KCP though

she met or exceeded her margins everywhere except where it counted most.

white republicans in the district won it for Carter

they heard she was a Hillary superdelegate and that AOC and Stacey Abrams were supporting her. Her ads were saturating TV leading up to today

Probably not.  Doubt there were 7800 Republicans who voted in the runoff, much less 7800 white ones.

7800 was 8.9% of the vote total of 87,806 in so far... the district is 39.9% not black (206k of a 538k RV electorate) and had registered voters of 37% Republican and other (195k) according to Louisiana SOS voter stats.

if those 200ishk turned out at 5% (there were other races on the ballots like tax renewals that draw that turnout), that would be 10k votes. Now would Carter win those at such a rate? 90-10 would result in a 8,000 vote difference. He probably didn't get 90-10 but 70-30 was realistic.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

The final is looking to be around 55-45, so he could be vulnerable to a primary in the fall next year

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The final is looking to be around 55-45, so he could be vulnerable to a primary in the fall next year

Doubt it. It was an open seat.