2021 LA-02 Special Election Runoff (4/24/2021) Megathread

[Real Texan Politics]

We're less than a month away from the special election for Louisiana's 2nd congressional district (which consists of most of the city of New Orleans, as well as riverside rural areas and some urban areas of Baton Rouge).

Major candidates include Troy Carter (state senator and 2006 candidate for this district), Karen Carter Peterson (state senator and former chair of the Louisiana Democratic Party, and Gary Chambers Jr. (the "progressive challenger").

Currently on PredictIt, Troy Carter leads the pack with 77 cents, followed by Karen Carter Peterson at 23 cents, and lastly Gary Chambers Jr. with 3 cents (despite endorsements from very prominent progressive activists like Shaun King, Cenk Uygur, and Marianne Williamson).

Speaking of endorsements, Troy Carter has actually been endorsed by the previous representative of this district, Cedric Richmond (now the senior advisor to President Biden). Other big endorsements for Troy include Ro Khanna (CA-17) and Jim Clyburn (SC-6). On the other hand, Karen Peterson has a very prominent endorsement from Stacey Abrams, as well as organizations such as Democracy for America, EMILY's List, Our Revolution, and former governor of Vermont and the demon of screamin' himself, Howard Dean.

So who's gonna win?

UPDATE: Reset/edited the poll due to special election results. The runoff will be held April 24, 2021.

[Stuart98]

Local endorsements > national endorsements. It'll be Carter.

[Zaybay]

We're less than a month away from the special election for Louisiana's 2nd congressional district (which consists of most of the city of New Orleans, as well as riverside rural areas and some urban areas of Baton Rouge).

Major candidates include Troy Carter (state senator and 2006 candidate for this district), Karen Carter Peterson (state senator and former chair of the Louisiana Democratic Party, and Gary Chambers Jr. (the "progressive challenger").

Currently on PredictIt, Troy Carter leads the pack with 77 cents, followed by Karen Carter Peterson at 23 cents, and lastly Gary Chambers Jr. with 3 cents (despite endorsements from very prominent progressive activists like Shaun King, Cenk Uygur, and Marianne Williamson).

Speaking of endorsements, Troy Carter has actually been endorsed by the previous representative of this district, Cedric Richmond (now the senior advisor to President Biden). Other big endorsements for Troy include Ro Khanna (CA-17), Jim Clyburn (SC-6), and the Louisiana Democratic Party. On the other hand, Karen Peterson has a very prominent endorsement from Stacey Abrams, as well as organizations such as Democracy for America, EMILY's List, Our Revolution, and former governor of Vermont and the demon of screamin' himself, Howard Dean.

So who's gonna win?

Just a small correction, KCP, Troy Carter, and the 6 other Dem candidates in the race were endorsed by the LDP. The party decided not to take a side and just gave an endorsement to every Dem candidate.

https://www.nola.com/news/politics/article_78b980e4-7565-11eb-bda4-936dca745c9b.html

The Louisiana Democratic Party endorsed all eight Democratic candidates in the race.

[Real Texan Politics]

We're less than a month away from the special election for Louisiana's 2nd congressional district (which consists of most of the city of New Orleans, as well as riverside rural areas and some urban areas of Baton Rouge).

Major candidates include Troy Carter (state senator and 2006 candidate for this district), Karen Carter Peterson (state senator and former chair of the Louisiana Democratic Party, and Gary Chambers Jr. (the "progressive challenger").

Currently on PredictIt, Troy Carter leads the pack with 77 cents, followed by Karen Carter Peterson at 23 cents, and lastly Gary Chambers Jr. with 3 cents (despite endorsements from very prominent progressive activists like Shaun King, Cenk Uygur, and Marianne Williamson).

Speaking of endorsements, Troy Carter has actually been endorsed by the previous representative of this district, Cedric Richmond (now the senior advisor to President Biden). Other big endorsements for Troy include Ro Khanna (CA-17), Jim Clyburn (SC-6), and the Louisiana Democratic Party. On the other hand, Karen Peterson has a very prominent endorsement from Stacey Abrams, as well as organizations such as Democracy for America, EMILY's List, Our Revolution, and former governor of Vermont and the demon of screamin' himself, Howard Dean.

So who's gonna win?

Just a small correction, KCP, Troy Carter, and the 6 other Dem candidates in the race were endorsed by the LDP. The party decided not to take a side and just gave an endorsement to every Dem candidate.

https://www.nola.com/news/politics/article_78b980e4-7565-11eb-bda4-936dca745c9b.html

The Louisiana Democratic Party endorsed all eight Democratic candidates in the race.

I've corrected it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Local endorsements > national endorsements. It'll be Carter.

[Joseph Cao]

The Republican nomination looks like a snoozefest. Former Olympic decathlete Claston Bernard is lining up endorsements from the LAGOP and local GOP parish committees, plus this crucial endorsement:

https://twitter.com/ClastonB/status/1357397060799102983

[Real Texan Politics]

The Republican nomination looks like a snoozefest. Former Olympic decathlete Claston Bernard is lining up endorsements from the LAGOP and local GOP parish committees, plus this crucial endorsement:

https://twitter.com/ClastonB/status/1357397060799102983

It's a D+25 district encompassing parts of the two largest cities in the state, New Orleans and Baton Rouge. No republican, no matter how good or milquetoast they are, have a chance in this district.

Basically republicans either sit out of this one or vote for the lesser of the evils (at least according to them). It's safe D regardless, which is why my poll didn't ask for ratings.

[Joseph Cao]

The Republican nomination looks like a snoozefest. Former Olympic decathlete Claston Bernard is lining up endorsements from the LAGOP and local GOP parish committees, plus this crucial endorsement:

https://twitter.com/ClastonB/status/1357397060799102983

It's a D+25 district encompassing parts of the two largest cities in the state, New Orleans and Baton Rouge. No republican, no matter how good or milquetoast they are, have a chance in this district.

Basically republicans either sit out of this one or vote for the lesser of the evils (at least according to them). It's safe D regardless, which is why my poll didn't ask for ratings.

Oh yeah, definitely, and I'm aware of that. Bernard's campaign announcement being on Vimeo is sort of a leading indicator of how his chances look. Just adding this for purely informative purposes.

[chalmetteowl]

We're less than a month away from the special election for Louisiana's 2nd congressional district (which consists of most of the city of New Orleans, as well as riverside rural areas and some urban areas of Baton Rouge).

Major candidates include Troy Carter (state senator and 2006 candidate for this district), Karen Carter Peterson (state senator and former chair of the Louisiana Democratic Party, and Gary Chambers Jr. (the "progressive challenger").

Currently on PredictIt, Troy Carter leads the pack with 77 cents, followed by Karen Carter Peterson at 23 cents, and lastly Gary Chambers Jr. with 3 cents (despite endorsements from very prominent progressive activists like Shaun King, Cenk Uygur, and Marianne Williamson).

Speaking of endorsements, Troy Carter has actually been endorsed by the previous representative of this district, Cedric Richmond (now the senior advisor to President Biden). Other big endorsements for Troy include Ro Khanna (CA-17) and Jim Clyburn (SC-6). On the other hand, Karen Peterson has a very prominent endorsement from Stacey Abrams, as well as organizations such as Democracy for America, EMILY's List, Our Revolution, and former governor of Vermont and the demon of screamin' himself, Howard Dean.

So who's gonna win?

a lot of the district isn't located in Orleans Parish and quite frankly, thinks New Orleans is run by crooks. I think Gary Chambers has a better chance than people realize

[Babeuf]

https://twitter.com/garychambersjr/status/1368195140976844804?s=21

Gary Chambers got Big Freedia to do a song for him!

[Real Texan Politics]

We're less than a month away from the special election for Louisiana's 2nd congressional district (which consists of most of the city of New Orleans, as well as riverside rural areas and some urban areas of Baton Rouge).

Major candidates include Troy Carter (state senator and 2006 candidate for this district), Karen Carter Peterson (state senator and former chair of the Louisiana Democratic Party, and Gary Chambers Jr. (the "progressive challenger").

Currently on PredictIt, Troy Carter leads the pack with 77 cents, followed by Karen Carter Peterson at 23 cents, and lastly Gary Chambers Jr. with 3 cents (despite endorsements from very prominent progressive activists like Shaun King, Cenk Uygur, and Marianne Williamson).

Speaking of endorsements, Troy Carter has actually been endorsed by the previous representative of this district, Cedric Richmond (now the senior advisor to President Biden). Other big endorsements for Troy include Ro Khanna (CA-17) and Jim Clyburn (SC-6). On the other hand, Karen Peterson has a very prominent endorsement from Stacey Abrams, as well as organizations such as Democracy for America, EMILY's List, Our Revolution, and former governor of Vermont and the demon of screamin' himself, Howard Dean.

So who's gonna win?

a lot of the district isn't located in Orleans Parish and quite frankly, thinks New Orleans is run by crooks. I think Gary Chambers has a better chance than people realize

If anything, the main competition will be between KCP and Troy Carter, with Chambers falling in a distant third place.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/garychambersjr/status/1368195140976844804?s=21

Gary Chambers got Big Freedia to do a song for him!

I prefer Troy Carter but this is a good music video

[Real Texan Politics]

Well today’s the day, or at least the day we find out who goes to the runoff.

And if my prediction ends up being correct, Gary Chambers Jr. won’t be so lucky

[butWhyNot?]

It’s probably going to a runoff.

[Alben Barkley]

Carter seems like a slam dunk. Might not avoid a run-off, but I don’t see how he loses in the end.

[Nyvin]

Troy Carter seems like a lock to get one of the top two.

[Real Texan Politics]

MAJOR UPDATE:

Decision Desk has called the race as a runoff between Troy Carter and Karen Peterson. Gary Chambers (unsurprisingly) finished third, but (surprisingly) ended up only 1,500 votes behind Peterson, meaning he was that close to facing a runoff with Troy.

The runoff election will be held April 24, 2021. Polls close at 8pm CST.

[Alben Barkley]

Safe Carter

[Tender Branson]

It’s gonna be around 64-36 Carter/Carter-Peterson.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

May the best Carter win

[brucejoel99]

MAJOR UPDATE:

Decision Desk has called the race as a runoff between Troy Carter and Karen Peterson. Gary Chambers (unsurprisingly) finished third, but (surprisingly) ended up only 1,500 votes behind Peterson, meaning he was that close to facing a runoff with Troy.

The runoff election will be held April 24, 2021. Polls close at 8pm CST.

If LA gains a 2nd VRA majority-Black district (one dominated by Baton Rouge), then congrats to future Rep. Gary Chambers. He didn't even raise that much money, so his performance is quite impressive indeed.

[DINGO Joe]

MAJOR UPDATE:

Decision Desk has called the race as a runoff between Troy Carter and Karen Peterson. Gary Chambers (unsurprisingly) finished third, but (surprisingly) ended up only 1,500 votes behind Peterson, meaning he was that close to facing a runoff with Troy.

The runoff election will be held April 24, 2021. Polls close at 8pm CST.

If LA gains a 2nd VRA majority-Black district (one dominated by Baton Rouge), then congrats to future Rep. Gary Chambers. He didn't even raise that much money, so his performance is quite impressive indeed.

Really, he didn't do that well in EBR even against two Orleans Parish based pols and he certainly didn't inspire any turnout in his home base.  I'm sure there are stronger Baton Rouge pols out there.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

KCP’s website says she supports Medicare for All, so endorsed.

But yeah, Carter will win.

[DINGO Joe]

Orleans made up just over 50% of the total votes vs 20 for Jefferson and 9 for EBR.  Those numbers in 2020 were 45-22-11.

[GALeftist]

Not sure Chambers would be a lock for a Baton Rouge VRA district but he might be the frontrunner? I'll believe a 4-2 LA delegation when I see it, though, so I suspect he's just going to become an organizer or something.