GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[It’s so Joever]

The real Warnock nut is Seminole. He overperformed by 8.

The vote total is too low, it’s almost certainly an errro

Yeah NYT fixed it, still was a nice little thing for the thirty seconds it lasted.

[MT Treasurer]

Towns County >95% in (this one is in North GA)

Walker 80%
Warnock 20%

~6,400 votes cast so far.

January 2021:

Perdue 81%
Ossoff 19%

~7,200 votes cast back then.

Rabun County >95% in (this one is also in North GA)

Walker 77%
Warnock 23%

~7,400 votes cast so far.

January 2021:

Perdue 79%
Ossoff 21%

~8,400 votes cast back then.

Franklin County >95% in (northeastern part of the state)

Walker 87%
Warnock 13%

~8,000 votes cast so far.

January 2021:

Perdue 85%
Ossoff 15%

~9,200 votes cast back then.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This isn't consistent with a Warnock +4 result at all so far.

Warnock+4 will depend on how well he does in counties like Fulton, DeKalb, Cobb, Gwinnett. I don't think we can make a judgement either way on this, yet.

[bagelman]

For Warnock to only win by 1 would be a major disappointment, if obviously still a win in the end. Walker is barely coherent, and would lose by 20 without racial and partisan tribalism. It would be a sobering signal that Georgia ultimately still has a clear Republican lean.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Newton reporting now:

50% in, 73-27 Warnock.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

There are a handful of counties, like Franklin and Rabun, that are positive signs for Walker, but not many, and not consistently enough for the Republicans to be optimistic statewide.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1600293442445156352?s=20&t=zuwh1b85jx7...

[new_patomic]

It would be a sobering signal that Georgia is, ultimately, still has a slight conservative lean.

I mean.

That is the literal case, yes.

[Alben Barkley]

Warnock will win, but more sobering to me about it being close than proof that Georgia still has a "slight conservative lean" is that even a candidate as brain dead as Walker could come close.

You have to wonder if it's just because Southern states like Georgia are so INELASTIC or if another Republican candidate would have actually won fairly easily this year. Based on Kemp's performance, perhaps it's the latter. But that's good news still in the sense that it's bad news for Trump and his track record.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Henry reporting:
60% in, 74-26.

[Lief 🗽]

Not following this too closely because I’m at a holiday party but based on skimming Twitter it looks like Warnock is massively underperforming??

[Brittain33]

Clear story of rural stasis but we need to see a complete county in a metro area to get a sense of what’s really happening statewide.

[ProudModerate2]

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1600291195250298885

They were saying on CNN, that the Cobb County numbers were initially wrong.
Is this the corrected numbers, or the old (wrong) numbers?

[Dani Rose]

Not following this too closely because I’m at a holiday party but based on skimming Twitter it looks like Warnock is massively underperforming??

As is usually the case with Twitter, reality is literally the opposite. Don't worry.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Not following this too closely because I’m at a holiday party but based on skimming Twitter it looks like Warnock is massively underperforming??

Aside from a 1% or so underperformance in some tiny rural counties, no.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Not following this too closely because I’m at a holiday party but based on skimming Twitter it looks like Warnock is massively underperforming??

He’s underperforming expectations. He’s on pace with the runoff, maybe a little ahead.

[Alben Barkley]

Not following this too closely because I’m at a holiday party but based on skimming Twitter it looks like Warnock is massively underperforming??

Nah the rural counties are just static, Warnock seems to be slightly overperforming or at least matching in the urban counties.

We could well see a result almost identical to November.

[South Dakota Democrat]

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1600291195250298885

They were saying on CNN, that the Cobb County numbers were initially wrong.
Is this the corrected numbers, or the old (wrong) numbers?

The former.

[Nyvin]

Not following this too closely because I’m at a holiday party but based on skimming Twitter it looks like Warnock is massively underperforming??

Not really, it's within ~1.5% of Nov results in pretty much every county that's almost fully in except for two that I can see.

That's actually good for Warnock since it's Walker that needs to improve his numbers to win.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1600294539205693441?s=20&t=ZNyj339qXpO...

[Gracile]

Not following this too closely because I’m at a holiday party but based on skimming Twitter it looks like Warnock is massively underperforming??

Most of the results that are fully in are tracking close to the November election results, and there's a lot of noise in the rural results (some swinging toward Warnock and some Walker). It's looking like a close race, but it seems like Warnock has the edge.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not following this too closely because I’m at a holiday party but based on skimming Twitter it looks like Warnock is massively underperforming??

Warnock seems to be doing fine.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Walker county is 47% in with 77-23 Walker.

[It’s so Joever]

Warnock is only "underperforming" because people forgot GA is still at heart a swing state right now and was not going to go landslide for either candidate regardless of quality.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Not following this too closely because I’m at a holiday party but based on skimming Twitter it looks like Warnock is massively underperforming??

No he’s performing like he did in November (which he won) he’s still on pace to win but closer to his November margin over the curb stomp we hopped for