2024 Third Party and Independent Candidate General discussion

[wbrocks67]

Cornel West raised $140k in January, spent $124k. Only has $103k COH

https://x.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1760155060254941190?s=20

RFK raised $2.7M, spent $3.3M. Has $4.8M COH

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1760011630128267395

These are not serious campaigns.

[The Mikado]

Cornel West raised $140k in January, spent $124k. Only has $103k COH

https://x.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1760155060254941190?s=20

RFK raised $2.7M, spent $3.3M. Has $4.8M COH

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1760011630128267395

These are not serious campaigns.

You grouping those two together when they're clearly wildly different categorically is more the problem here. Those numbers basically indicate that the Cornel West campaign essentially doesn't exist, which basically everyone here knows but the press needs to catch up to. The RFK Jr campaign may be spendthrift and wasteful, but it exists and those numbers show it.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Cornel West raised $140k in January, spent $124k. Only has $103k COH

https://x.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1760155060254941190?s=20

RFK raised $2.7M, spent $3.3M. Has $4.8M COH

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1760011630128267395

These are not serious campaigns.

Cornell West isn't making it to the general election, but dismiss RFK at your own risk.

[wbrocks67]

Cornel West raised $140k in January, spent $124k. Only has $103k COH

https://x.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1760155060254941190?s=20

RFK raised $2.7M, spent $3.3M. Has $4.8M COH

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1760011630128267395

These are not serious campaigns.

You grouping those two together when they're clearly wildly different categorically is more the problem here. Those numbers basically indicate that the Cornel West campaign essentially doesn't exist, which basically everyone here knows but the press needs to catch up to. The RFK Jr campaign may be spendthrift and wasteful, but it exists and those numbers show it.

Yes, it exists, but RFK is also way more high profile than West. RFK has been the *the* go to for all of the third party talk this cycle. The fact that he only raised $2.7M last month, somehow spent *more* than that while simultatenously doing pretty much nothing (and doing nothing to really get ballot access either) shows that his campaign is also not to be taken seriously. He's hemorrhaging money and he's barely running a campaign!

[MichaelM24]

Apparently he also made Hawaii's ballot (as per his ballot access page on his website), which must have just happened.

I know he's likely to be on the ballot in both Georgia (and now Arizona), so that's a total of five states (with New Hampshire and Utah already accounted for).

Hoping that he picks up ballot access - I'm no supporter of his, but it'd be nice to see him make at least 35 ballots.

[Octowakandi]

Just remember, folks, typically you need about 1.5 times the amount of signatures required since a lot of them do get disqualified.

[wbrocks67]

Just remember, folks, typically you need about 1.5 times the amount of signatures required since a lot of them do get disqualified.

Not just that - but are they going off of the threshold needed for an Independent candidate or a Libertarian candidate, or RFK's new "We the people" party or whatever? He doesn't even seem to have a plan on how he's running in each state

[Octowakandi]

Just remember, folks, typically you need about 1.5 times the amount of signatures required since a lot of them do get disqualified.

Not just that - but are they going off of the threshold needed for an Independent candidate or a Libertarian candidate, or RFK's new "We the people" party or whatever? He doesn't even seem to have a plan on how he's running in each state

Oh, it's pretty clear what they're doing. If you check his campaign website, it's actually all laid out in a very easy to follow way. They're getting support for "we the people" only in the states where that significantly reduces the signature threshold. Otherwise he's independent. Right now he's doing everything for an Independent campaign with a made up party for pretense purposes where it helps. So no, that's not really a point of confusion for his campaign at all.

[Minnesota Mike]

I think we can dismiss those RFK Jr. as the Libertarian candidate rumblings.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1761881310111690819

[Redban]

Signatures are accumulating fast. He is up 71% of the 21,422 of the signatures needed for Michigan

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He's not gonna win

[Redban]

Just remember, folks, typically you need about 1.5 times the amount of signatures required since a lot of them do get disqualified.

so he needs 63,455 signatures in az? he has 52,489 already, and the deadline is in 6 months or so

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Given his fundraising and the strength of his campaign so far I think RFK will be on the ballot in 40+ states. He might end up with better access the the greens

[Open Source Intelligence]

The Socialist Workers Party announced its national ticket on February 17. For president, Rachele Fruit of Florida. For vice-president, Margaret Trowe of California.

[Open Source Intelligence]

I think we can dismiss those RFK Jr. as the Libertarian candidate rumblings.

The only reason he was there was Adrian Malagon's FU to "respectable Libertarians".

Results:

Lars Mapstead 25
Michael Rectenwald 21 (Mises Caucus candidate of choice)
Mike ter Maat 14
Chase Oliver 10 (Pragmatist candidate of choice)
Jacob Hornberger 6
Joshua Smith 4

Joshua Anderson 4 (no idea)
Art Olivier 4 (VP candidate for the party back in maybe 2000, I doubt he's seeking presidential nomination, but I think he's from California)
Spike Cohen 3 (VP candidate in 2020, not seeking presidential nomination)
Charles Ballay 2 (no idea)
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 1
Justin Amash 1 (not seeking presidential nomination)

[AltWorlder]

Lars Mapstead does have serious public speaking issues and comes across as just “there” compared to the other personalities in the room. The thing is that it’s going to be hard for him to win what with delegates associated with those that voted for Jo Jorgensen now lesser in number.

Looks like having a huge campaign war chest is overcoming the above

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So according to Wikipedia, RFK Jr. only has ballot access as a named candidate in New Hampshire and Utah and likely in Hawaii which is just "pending objections", (he has a few other states that are checked but only because he gets automatic write-in status, he's still not on the ballot)...which is less than the Prohibition Party and American Solidarity Party. Not that impressive.

[RI]

So according to Wikipedia, RFK Jr. only has ballot access as a named candidate in New Hampshire and Utah and likely in Hawaii which is just "pending objections", (he has a few other states that are checked but only because he gets automatic write-in status, he's still not on the ballot)...which is less than the Prohibition Party and American Solidarity Party. Not that impressive.

Most state deadlines are still quite some time away.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

So according to Wikipedia, RFK Jr. only has ballot access as a named candidate in New Hampshire and Utah and likely in Hawaii which is just "pending objections", (he has a few other states that are checked but only because he gets automatic write-in status, he's still not on the ballot)...which is less than the Prohibition Party and American Solidarity Party. Not that impressive.

RFK and others have more than enough time left.

The next deadline is Idaho on March 15 and requires 1.000 signatures for Independent candidates.

Actually, NC would be next with more than 80.000 signatures by March 5, but Kennedy is not going this route.

He's establishing a new party in NC (and other states), which have much lower signature requirements (13.000) and more time (until June) to submit them.

Kennedy will probably be on the ballot in all 50 states, because most states only have filing deadlines by summer or even until September.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So according to Wikipedia, RFK Jr. only has ballot access as a named candidate in New Hampshire and Utah and likely in Hawaii which is just "pending objections", (he has a few other states that are checked but only because he gets automatic write-in status, he's still not on the ballot)...which is less than the Prohibition Party and American Solidarity Party. Not that impressive.

RFK and others have more than enough time left.

The next deadline is Idaho on March 15 and requires 1.000 signatures for Independent candidates.

Actually, NC would be next with more than 80.000 signatures by March 5, but Kennedy is not going this route.

He's establishing a new party in NC (and other states), which have much lower signature requirements (13.000) and more time (until June) to submit them.

Kennedy will probably be on the ballot in all 50 states, because most states only have filing deadlines by summer or even until September.

His odds of being on the ballot in Texas is near zero.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

So according to Wikipedia, RFK Jr. only has ballot access as a named candidate in New Hampshire and Utah and likely in Hawaii which is just "pending objections", (he has a few other states that are checked but only because he gets automatic write-in status, he's still not on the ballot)...which is less than the Prohibition Party and American Solidarity Party. Not that impressive.

RFK and others have more than enough time left.

The next deadline is Idaho on March 15 and requires 1.000 signatures for Independent candidates.

Actually, NC would be next with more than 80.000 signatures by March 5, but Kennedy is not going this route.

He's establishing a new party in NC (and other states), which have much lower signature requirements (13.000) and more time (until June) to submit them.

Kennedy will probably be on the ballot in all 50 states, because most states only have filing deadlines by summer or even until September.

His odds of being on the ballot in Texas is near zero.

Not true.

CA requires 220.000 signatures by August, TX 115.000 by May for independent candidates.

But Kennedy is trying to establish parties in these states, for which the requirements are much lower:

Mr. Kennedy’s campaign said that forming parties in those six states would reduce the number of signatures he needed to get on the ballot in all 50 states by 330,000 — about a third of the previous total.

In at least two of the states, however, he will need to persuade a minimum number of voters to register with the party in order to get ballot access: roughly 75,000 in California and roughly 770 in Delaware.

Two other states, North Carolina and Hawaii, require registered voters’ signatures to complete the formation of the party: at least 13,865 in North Carolina and at least 862 in Hawaii.

And in Texas, Mr. Kennedy will need about 81,000 people to participate in precinct conventions in order for his party to get a line on the general-election ballot.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I'm not sure what's easier for RFK Jr. in Texas ... trying to collect 115.000 signatures by May as an independent candidate, or creating a new party and collect just 81.000 signatures - but make them "participate in precinct conventions", which seems to be required by TX law.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The problem with Texas is those signatures or convention participants can not vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Did I unterstand that correctly, or is my English simply too bad?
According to CNN, 26% of registered voters in Arizona would vote for Kennedy? WTF?
Is that some kind of Sinema effect?

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

I expect the Kennedy campaign to fizzle out to low single digits like every other third party campaign this side of 1996, but I have no trouble imagining him on 51/51 ballots. Johnson managed it in 2016 and he had less money than RFK does now.