2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

SECULAR TRIFECTA incoming.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

“ For one, 59% of women and 49% of men say they would prefer Republicans to control Congress”

That can’t be right.

Checked, it's not - the crosstabs are:

18-24: D+27 (62-35)
25-44: D+10 (51-41)
45-64: R+9 (51-42)
65+: D+2 (49-47)
Males: D+2 (49-47)
Females: D+2 (47-45)
Whites: R+13 (53-40)
Nonwhites: D+49 (72-23)
Indies: R+1 (41-40)

Is the 65+ vs 45-64 the reason elections seem to be the same percentage wise despite more Millennials and GenZ voters? Do they cancel each other out?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Ann Selzer has D+4 nationally


Selzer & Co./Grinnell College poll

Generic Ballot (National)

Dem 46%
Rep 42%

9/20-9/25
739 LV

https://www.grinnell.edu/poll/2022-midterms

Muahahahaha

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Ann Selzer has D+4 nationally


Selzer & Co./Grinnell College poll

Generic Ballot (National)

Dem 46%
Rep 42%

9/20-9/25
739 LV

https://www.grinnell.edu/poll/2022-midterms

Muahahahaha

Is this really that big of deal?

Selzer is extremely accurate.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

We heard all about how McConnell pulling out of AZ was a deal with Thiel for him to fund Masters. Is there any evidence of that actually happening?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Cohn usually is fine, but I think we can all admit basing an analysis off of the google searches of abortion is just getting ridiculous.

Will still be more accurate than Trafalgar's Vermont polls.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Certain people do like to try to build a narrative like that. Nate Cohn really strikes me as a concern troll (or maybe that's what the NYT wants right now). I saw this from him yesterday.

Yes, journalists do make up "stories" where there are none to drive engagement, and "data journalists" are not exception, but search trends have also been a relatively reliable (and more importantly, rapid) indicator of political shifts that polls don't catch—though there's still not a reliable hard quantifier, AFAIK.

Yep, you are 100% right!

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I can already feel this damn election taking a toll on my mental health.

Lovely. Exactly what I needed.

You and me both. It already was before the Dobbs decision actually managed to change things for the better, but I still can't get rid of the nagging dread that we're being misled into being optimistic again.

It especially doesn't help with today's round of polling where things actively look worse in Oregon, Pennsylvania (Senate, not so much the gubernatorial race), and Wisconsin. Which all might be explained by Republican ad blitzes going into very high gear, time shifting further away from the shock and consequences of the Dobbs decision in the summer, gas going up again in some areas, inflation remaining stubborn, and Democratic accomplishments during the summer leaving peoples' memories. I was worried that Democrats would peak too early, as always seems to be the case, and while I can't say this is happening for sure right now (perhaps it's just statistical noise) I am becoming paranoid about it.

Part of me just wants these damn elections to be over, but the other part of me dreads how they end up and would rather not know at all.

And yet this week we also got Hassan +9, Warnock +5, Kelly +6, Fetterman +7/10, and two tied NC-SEN polls. If people want to create a narrative about WI, where things actually seem to have shifted a bit, that's fine, but elsewhere there doesn't seem to be anything really going on.

Also, the idea that 2 months after Dobbs, people were still angry and voted, but 4 months - closer to the actual election - they're just like "meh" is just kind of ridiculous.

I know I'm probably being unreasonable but certain things are instigating that internal sense of dread I always have but had been quieted somewhat during the late summer. I hope you end up right about everything this year. I really do.

I mean, I get frustrated and doom too. But I'd rather be cautiously optimistic about some things than be pessimistic.

I think of the NY-19 election where close to nobody on this forum thought Pat Ryan would win. He was down in fundraising, down in the polls, everyone thought "oh Molinaro by 5" and then he came and won by nearly 3%. Not every election is like that, but we've seen concrete evidence this year is different, so the closer we get to the election, I'm supposed to believe that those Dem voters are just... going the opposite way in terms of motivation?

Hell, the fact that we're even talking about Dems and Reps being at the *SAME* intention/motivation to vote in most polls in a Biden midterm is crazy.

This is really the thing that frustrates me. I know for a fact that Dems have been overperforming everywhere for literally months now, but the logic that is beaten into us every day here is that *actually* we have to just assume the polls will be as far off as they were in 2020 or even worse, and if we do anything else, even if we still assume a mild Republican overperformance of only +1 or +2, then that means we're being completely unreasonable and are out of touch with *real America* or some s***, because in the secret reality that I can't see, the polling averages are really underestimating Republicans by like 5 points *everywhere* despite any actual evidence of that. And there's only so much of that that my brain can take before I'm just tempted to give in to the dooming even though there is a lot of clear evidence against doing so.

I don't mind people arguing that the polls are going to be catastrophically wrong, but when they do so with supreme confidence and with no real evidence to back it up - while also demanding that we ignore both the special elections and the reporting on partisan nonresponse would seem to be evidence against the polls being off - it just makes me feel like I'm losing my damn mind. Because clearly only a crazy person would believe evidence over gut feeling.

Yep. I can't help but feel sad over the "inevitable" GOP majority, despite the Washington primary, five special elections, the fact that high propensity voters vote Dem more now, and everything.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

If you believe the ABC/WaPo Poll from a week ago there will be a significant overvote from Democrats in SAFE Democratic Districts. Democrats need a 4-5 Popular Vote Win possibly even more to keep the House.

Biden won by 7M+ Votes in 2020, 81M+ to 74M+ yet the Electoral College was 306-232 with a handful of States only being decided by 20K Votes or less.

The Structural Advantage Republicans have in this Midterm IMO have not being talked enough.

YET the Democrats here on Talk Elections and elsewhere keep pushing this narrative that they have a chance at holding the House. No, they don't. It is gaslighting and a pipe-dream. Pelosi & Sean Patrick Maloney know this. They just won't admit it to the Public.

So you admit the Dems are still up on the GCB?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Monmouth has R+3....Dems are showing some real troubling signs in the past week.

Rasmussen just found them at R+1. Nice try bro.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Looks like the traditional post-Rosh Hashanah collapse is in full swing now. RIP.

You're saying this right after it came out that Herschel Walker paid someone to get an abortion and after Mehmet Oz was credibly accused of killing dogs?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

DDHQ/NewsNation has D+1, up from R+3 last month

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1577302034520412161

lol. Two great polls for Ds after someone declares them to be collapsing.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

About that American Greatness Poll:

18-39: GOP 48.2-41.6
40-64: GOP 46.7-43.9
65+: DEM 49.7-43.5

sure.jan

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

2016 is even admitting that Dems will probably win the GCB, and is coping accordingly lol

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/aaronblake/status/1577664253196115975

What a bizarre interview. It does sound like AZ is a bit of a lost cause though it’s not over til it’s over.

If the goal was to motivate Republicans and hype them up about WA/CO, why demote AZ in the process?

Well from a strategic standpoint it probably would be good if O'Dea and Smiley run for office again for the GOP, while it makes sense to end Bolduc's political relevance.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

My favorite part is how they come up with Warnock +4.4 and still find a way to make him lose.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

A big question I have about the whole “partisan nonresponse” thing….why isn’t this issue solved by weighting or stratifying on 2020 presidential vote?

I.e. Why wouldn’t a Wisconsin sample be representative if the sample reports being Biden +1 in the 2020 vote?  Aren’t you guaranteeing a representative number of Trump voters in that case?

Well nobody really knows the electorate composition. Personally I think the higher propensity of Biden voters makes up for the difference but it depends.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

A big question I have about the whole “partisan nonresponse” thing….why isn’t this issue solved by weighting or stratifying on 2020 presidential vote?

I.e. Why wouldn’t a Wisconsin sample be representative if the sample reports being Biden +1 in the 2020 vote?  Aren’t you guaranteeing a representative number of Trump voters in that case?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=408952.0

The sample here was Clinton +1 in MN and Trump +8 in TX and yet the poll was widely off

That was a D+13 sample lol. I remember that one.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

You don't remember when Democrats were leading the GCB by 15 in October 2014 and it was a big shock to everyone when they lost control of the Senate?

No?

Because that didn't happen. The Daily Kos of all people said the GOP had a 90% chance of control. Jesus Horatio Christ.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1580225262222192641

One of these things is not like the other lol...

If you are referring to Oklahoma I think it's just standard protocol to move a race into Likely after the other party leads in three straight credible polls.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

D+6 is enough for Spanberger and probably Luria.
https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1580311418330443778?s=21&t=Gv5m0WXW9o...

That’s basically D+ 0.5 nationwide provided things are static.

You don't have anything but four months of consistent polling data and hundreds of polls proving this. 2016 told me DeSantis will win by 15 so obviously it's R+5 environment.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Ok,
wbrocks67
You are now being put officially on Ignore! Impossible to talk to you.

"Hi pot, I'm kettle"

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Republicans should be getting nervous that Democrats continue to cling to a generic ballot lead, this keeps them in contention for keeping the majority. Republicans are late for a surge like in 2014, they are cutting it close.

They are fine polls are fundamentally more flawed this year.

How do you know? We have polls and special election results.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/M_McAdams/status/1581647755012816896?t=3fdKPSXHQ6I6SFPOhFRqo...

Having the GOP up only 2% when abortion is issue #7 and 70% think the economy is sh**t isn’t the good news for the GOP you think it is.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Evidence for a slight D advantage:

Dobbs
Post-Dobbs special elections
Democratic legislative accomplishments
Selzer poll
Some GCB
High-propensity voters shifting D
GOP still living in 2020 with Trump

Evidence for a slight R advantage:

Midterm with a Dem President
Inflation
Rising gas prices
Pre-Dobbs special elections
Voter registration trends
Early vote data relative to 2020
Potential for polling to miss Republicans
Some GCB

What am I missing? You can make either case with the evidence.

Ngl the first list can really just be boiled down to the first two points + the high-propensity voters point. I wouldn't count a single poll in a single state as evidence of much of anything, and 'living in 2020 with Trump' is kind of laughable.

Now one point you didn't raise is how bad the candidate quality is on the R side, even if that is a big played up on this forum. There is no doubt that better R candidates in PA, GA, and AZ would have made all of those races tougher for Ds.

Overall I do think this year will be somewhat R-leaning, probably R+3 or so in the congressional vote. But without Dobbs it was probably going to be like an R+7 shellacking, and Ds will hold probably 20-30 seats that they otherwise would've lost (alongside probably 2 or 3 senate seats imo).

Well the consistent Dem GCB lead contrasts very much with 2010 and 1994.